COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[Demonrat]

Hey guys, long timer lurker, first time poster.

This thread is rapidly devolving much like the other locked thread. I don't think anybody is going to change their position on mRNA vaccines/military mandates/masks/general mandates/school closures on a forum for Air Force flyers. You could have George Washington resurrected from the dead, take a position, and people would still disagree with him.

At some point all of us are going to have to just accept that people will always have differing perspectives. There may be negative outcomes for our choices, but that's life, and we all are responsible for the choices we make. 

Me personally? I'll be the first in line to get my 69th booster shot, and I have no requirement for anybody else to do the same. 

 

 

[tac airlifter]

3 hours ago, Prozac said:

One tool in the tool box. Do you honestly expect military leaders to sit back and do NOTHING to attempt to combat a virus that severely threatens readiness? Tell me, what steps would you take if you were a member of the Joint Chiefs, a combatant commander, or even a WG/CC? 

Copy—  you’re acknowledging the tool you advocate does not produce the results you desire, but you want the tool used anyway to produce the results you desire despite second order effects with collateral impacts.  Makes perfect sense, you have a promising career in government.

To answer your question: all of those people are following SECDEF orders.  But at the JCS level they can have a conversation which would be inappropriate for other entities you listed.  If I were JCS I’d have the balls to say: we’re losing more personnel to this mandate than the virus.  Recommend we cease mandates, and treat religious objections to vaccine same way we treat  conscientious objectors: find a way they can continue service.  Here are my specific recommendations…..

By the way, that is the logic I sent my boss.  But we’ve decided to go full adversarial instead of empathetic, with predictable results.  End state: we are weaker not stronger, and more divided as a country and military than ever. Congratulations.  

Edited January 5, 2022 by tac airlifter

[Prozac]

No, you are misinterpreting. I acknowledge the tool in question has a disappointingly waning efficacy when it comes to preventing disease. This does not mean in cannot be a useful tool, especially when combined with other measures. It still has very good efficacy when it comes to keeping people out of the hospital or the morgue, which is a pretty major consideration for most commanders. If you’re vaccinated and exposed, you don’t get taken out for 10 days (or 5, or 7, or whatever it is today…..agree that CDC’s messaging is atrocious), another major consideration for commanders. Finally, even 40% efficacy when it comes to preventing disease is not nothing. If I had a tool that kept 40% of my troops combat effective who otherwise wouldn’t be, you’re goddamn right I’d use it. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Prozac
autocorrect

[lloyd christmas]

This conversation should be near the end.  Nothing has worked to prevent the spread.  Not the vaccines, not the masks, not the closures, not the social distancing, not the bazillion dollars spent, not the fear tactics.   Not anything.  It’s here to stay and we will all get it.  People shouldn’t lose their jobs over it and we shouldn’t divide the country any further.  

[Guardian]

Whoppie got it. And she was shocked because she said she did everything right.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/whoopi-goldberg-stunned-testing-positive-covid

[TheNewGazmo]

This conversation should be near the end.  Nothing has worked to prevent the spread.  Not the vaccines, not the masks, not the closures, not the social distancing, not the bazillion dollars spent, not the fear tactics.   Not anything.  It’s here to stay and we will all get it.  People shouldn’t lose their jobs over it and we shouldn’t divide the country any further.  

True. Instead, our government should be spending more time approving effective and affordable treatments that can be taken at home during initial symptoms (ie: India). They are out there. We all know what they are. Oher countries are using them effectively, but for some reason we aren't. Kind of makes you scratch your head.

[TheNewGazmo]

Whoppie got it. And she was shocked because she said she did everything right.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/whoopi-goldberg-stunned-testing-positive-covid

Noone is ever shocked when they catch the common cold, which typically has an R0 of 2-3. They are saying Omicron is around 7-10, approaching that of Chicken Pox and Measles. The only difference is, the Chicken Pox and MMR vaccines are highly effective against infection and the COVID vaccine is not.

[Negatory]

Some good charts showing how a simple offset of 4 days for hospitalizations or 21 days for deaths can potentially predict effects. Here’s hoping that both of those things don’t follow the curves of the past.

[ViperMan]

On 1/4/2022 at 8:38 AM, Negatory said:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/04/us-global-record-more-than-1m-daily-covid-cases

@ViperMan et al? Looks like your feelings based argument that we would never go a multiple above 250k isn’t panning out. Just like COVID going away on its own, ending when it heats up, disappearing, etc…

It seems you skipped over my first attempt to provide you clarification.

Please post my statement where I said cases would not exceed 250K per day. You know what, nevermind. I'll do it for you.

On 12/22/2021 at 2:30 PM, ViperMan said:

We locked down when this thing first began, and at its absolute worst, we were seeing ~250K/ cases per day with ~3-4K deaths per day (if you subscribe to the notion that COVID was the sole cause of death, which I do not; https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html). Now, you're telling me that this thing is going to imminently peak not only to that level, but at a rate (mathematical certainty) that will top it by 4X!!! Are you kidding me? And all we get from #1 is a statement that if your vaxxed, you can go on vacation, but if you're not, you're gonna die??? Mkay. I don't believe you. I don't believe that these people actually think we're heading to a space where 12,000-16,000 people are going to be dying every day. I don't believe they believe that. If they did, they'd be taking different steps. It's fear porn in order to justify expediency that there is otherwise no appetite for. If they do believe that, and that's all they're doing, then they're even more cynical people than I already think.

Here's the first re-attack again if you choose to read it. From this point forward, I'm going to have to defer to someone else on this forum to help explain to you that I was doubting the sincerity of the people in charge given the assumptive death-rate you panic-stricken posters seem to think is imminent. Not that we would get to some arbitrary number of infections per day.

On 12/28/2021 at 6:56 PM, ViperMan said:

I'm not surprised by this. Omicron is like, what, 70x as infectious as the other variants? And it can break through multiple shots? My point - which I include again below for your convenience, so you can read it again - is to say that I don't believe the HYPE around this next variant.

All I'm saying is that they are either:

1. Lying about what they think will happen re: the death rate.
2. So cynical that they are right about impending doom and don't have the balls to act, or just don't care.

It's one of those two things. Neither one is complimentary to the administration. Now, if they suspect that literally a 100,000 people will be dying every week with this thing and they don't lock down? Hmmm...I'll be looking for LOTS of resignations from the people in charge of this thing. They have the power, and if they don't exercise if for political reasons, then they are done. More than they already are.

Thus far, Omicron has not been the scourge it could have been. It's highly infections, but not very virulent.

14 people have died in the UK (https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-says-14-deaths-129-hospitalised-by-omicron-2021-12-22/) as of a couple days ago, and more will.

Here are some unavoidable facts:

1. This bug is EXTRAORDINARILY transmissible. Regardless of vax status.
2. This bug is highly likely to infect you. Regardless of vax status.
3. If you get it, you are highly likely to spread it. Regardless of vax status.
4. If you wear a mask, you're probably doing something, but not much to help avoid spreading or catching it.

So, with that established, what is the point of all the panic? What is the point of mandates? What is the point of calling it a "pandemic of the unvaccinated"? How about we just let people be educated about the disease and their options, and call it a day? That's my vote.

Anyway, I guess the big guy (and maybe #2 also?) is giving some speech right now about how Jan 6th was supposedly the end of America as we know it. I think you should keep screaming from the mountain tops, @Negatory, because it's not possible in my world for them to be so highly dedicated to political theater in the face of impending doom. I feel like you know something they don't. Hell, you probably do, and if so, you really need to be spending your time reaching out to people who can make some substantive change, rather than enlightening all of us air force pilots on this small corner of the internet called baseopsforums.com because I really feel that we're not your intended audience. You have received knowledge that needs to be delivered to the people at the top of our government, because it's obvious to me that they don't have the same information you purport to have. No one here is going to be able to implement any further societal restrictions, or enact a lock-down that will save us from the tidal wave of death that is headed our way. You're really wasting your time with us. Sorry to say, you have been standing in the wrong line at the DMV.

By way of implication, you seem to believe that for a few weeks starting in ~ mid-January the USA is going to experience about 300-500K deaths, right? This approaches Civil War deaths. They PTB cannot both know that we're going to experience that level of pandemic death and destruction, and simultaneously be placing focus on a riot that got out of control a year ago to make a political stump speech. Or hell, maybe they can because they are that cynical. I guess we'll see. In the meantime, I'll continue to scoff their sincerity, competence, and your reading comprehension.

Edited January 6, 2022 by ViperMan

[BashiChuni]

if cloth masks don't work why is the DoD mandating them? asking for the Mayo Clinic

[TheNewGazmo]

if cloth masks don't work why is the DoD mandating them? asking for the Mayo Clinic

Look we've been through this debate a bazillion times. We're beating a decomposed horse's corpse at this point. Do masks work? In theory, they should. I don't think anyone with an average or above IQ should be arguing that. However, are people wearing them correctly? Are they replacing them frequently? Are they using an N95 underneath their cloth mask or they just using a bandana over there face? I see so many people walking around with masks that are so loose they're hanging off their face. People have them below their noses as if covid can't come out of your nose and it only comes out of your mouth. It's like the Wild Wild West with the mask wear and we can't expect everyone to have the discipline to wear masks like a healthcare professional would. When you throw those variables into the mix, there's really no way to know just how effective wearing a mask actually is.

In addition to that, just like any other airborne virus, COVID can infiltrate the body through the eyeballs. Very few people wear goggles or face shields.

[UPTapplicant96]

News that Wright Patterson AFB Commander Col. Patrick Miller is now considering moving the base to HPCON Delta due to the rise of COVID cases. If WPAFB moves to HPCON Delta, how would that impact those of us with upcoming flight physicals? What has happened in the past when a base is moved to Delta? Hoping someone on here can share their opinion/thoughts on this. Source below:

https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/local/just-in-wright-patterson-commander-weighs-move-to-stricter-health-condition-delta/SCFUWY45ZBH7RJQYTLCRQEMURI/

[Lord Ratner]

15 hours ago, lloyd christmas said:

This conversation should be near the end.  Nothing has worked to prevent the spread.  Not the vaccines, not the masks, not the closures, not the social distancing, not the bazillion dollars spent, not the fear tactics.   Not anything.  It’s here to stay and we will all get it.  People shouldn’t lose their jobs over it and we shouldn’t divide the country any further.  

But it did accomplish exactly what some of us said it would. Create more division, foster distrust, and ruin the credibility of "expertise."

The failure to consider (and value) second- and third-order effects by the American Left is catastrophic in both scope and effect.

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, TheNewGazmo said:

Look we've been through this debate a bazillion times. We're beating a decomposed horse's corpse at this point. Do masks work? In theory, they should. I don't think anyone with an average or above IQ should be arguing that. However, are people wearing them correctly? Are they replacing them frequently? Are they using an N95 underneath their cloth mask or they just using a bandana over there face? I see so many people walking around with masks that are so loose they're hanging off their face. People have them below their noses as if covid can't come out of your nose and it only comes out of your mouth. It's like the Wild Wild West with the mask wear and we can't expect everyone to have the discipline to wear masks like a healthcare professional would. When you throw those variables into the mix, there's really no way to know just how effective wearing a mask actually is.

In addition to that, just like any other airborne virus, COVID can infiltrate the body through the eyeballs. Very few people wear goggles or face shields.
 

The question was never about masks working. It was about mask mandates working. We have an answer 

 

Watch them try to mandate properly-worn N95 masks and the entire charade end tomorrow. The mandates are very specifically crafted to be tolerable (only just), not to be effective.

[Blue]

16 hours ago, lloyd christmas said:

People shouldn’t lose their jobs over it and we shouldn’t divide the country any further.  

An anecdote:  I have not taken the jab.  My company (Big Fortune 100 behemoth) is subject to the Federal Contractor Mandate.  They have been spamming my inbox for weeks, warning that I need to submit my proof of vaccination, or else I'll "be subject to discipline, up to and including termination."

The deadline was Tuesday.  It's now Thursday.  I'm still here.  I have had no word from HR or management one way or the other.

Edited January 6, 2022 by Blue

[BashiChuni]

good for you blue.

they will make the booster mandatory soon im sure. i will not be taking it. seems like there are lots more like me who have had enough.

[CaptainMorgan]

If condoms were as effective as masks, nobody would ever wear them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[brabus]

9 hours ago, TheNewGazmo said:

there's really no way to know just how effective wearing a mask actually is.

There have been studies that show that the average cloth mask material is 50% effective, when worn on a face properly, it’s 10% or less effective (drop based on how the material sits on a face, the openings that creates, etc). That’s before accounting for variables you mentioned. So yeah, they do something, but I’ve never personally considered single digits synonymous with “effective.” Apparently other people do consider sub 10% “effective.” 

[Pooter]

@ViperMan I think people are calling it "a pandemic of the unvaccinated" because it is the unvaccinated who are actually ending up in the hospital and dying from this thing.

In a pandemic I don't care how many people get the sniffles. I care about hospitalizations and death, which are happening in disproportionate numbers to the unvaxxed.

Similarly, you could call it a "pandemic of the obese" or a "pandemic of the elderly" as they're the ones getting the full brunt of the effects. 
 

On mask mandates, I honestly think any tiny shred of efficacy could justify a mandate. Wearing a mask is not an undue burden on you, and mandating you put a tiny piece of PPE on your face is a very far cry from mandating you to get an injection.  Hell, we all wear flight suits that have been washed thousands of times and have long since lost their fire resistance so apparently you guys are okay with some useless PPE but not others.. I guess as long as it looks cool. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Pooter

[Guardian]

Let’s assume for sake of argument you are 100% correct pooter. Take the next step in thought. What if anything should be done about it? If people who are aware of the vax and choose not to get it die, is that bad?

Then apply your answer to the major causes of death in our society and issues of health. Heart issues. Over weight issues. People choosing to end the life of others medically without giving them choice, cancers, smoking, drugs, etc. are you going to make choices for those people or take away health care for them or charge them more insurance because they are exercising their opinions?

It’s a really big open question. Sorry. Allow me to break it down or retort based off your answer.

[pawnman]

49 minutes ago, Guardian said:

Let’s assume for sake of argument you are 100% correct pooter. Take the next step in thought. What if anything should be done about it? If people who are aware of the vax and choose not to get it die, is that bad?

Then apply your answer to the major causes of death in our society and issues of health. Heart issues. Over weight issues. People choosing to end the life of others medically without giving them choice, cancers, smoking, drugs, etc. are you going to make choices for those people or take away health care for them or charge them more insurance because they are exercising their opinions?

It’s a really big open question. Sorry. Allow me to break it down or retort based off your answer.

But health insurance does cost more for smokers...?

But putting that aside, someone overdosing on drugs can't make me sick. Someone shoveling down Big Macs can't make me fat. Someone smoking can't give me lung cancer (despite all the screaming about second-hand smoke).

Unvaccinated people who refuse to wear masks absolutely increase the probability that those around them get infected.

See the difference? It's not a choice about your individual health...it's a choice that affects everyone around you. Which is usually the bar for mandates - government doesn't care if you get drunk, because that won't affect anyone else. But they care if you drive drunk, because your decision now increases the risk for others on the road. 

[Guardian]

Actually unvaccinated people who are sick are less likely to get others sick because they are aware of their issue and can take action. Those who are vaccinated are the bigger and untested (because no symptoms) of covid spread. See the difference?

Masks are for vaccinated and sick. Not the unvaccinated and symptom free. Follow the logic?

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, Pooter said:

@ViperMan

 

On mask mandates, I honestly think any tiny shred of efficacy could justify a mandate. Wearing a mask is not an undue burden on you, and mandating you put a tiny piece of PPE on your face is a very far cry from mandating you to get an injection.  Hell, we all wear flight suits that have been washed thousands of times and have long since lost their fire resistance so apparently you guys are okay with some useless PPE but not others.. I guess as long as it looks cool. 

There's no logic behind this paragraph, just emotion. If you were being logically consistent, you would just say that we should wear masks forever. Because masks also marginally reduce the spread of flu, which kills people. So why now? Should we just be a masked society?

 

Negatory posted an excellent explanation of why the math doesn't work either. If we lived in a universe with an unlimited population, then small percentage changes in spread would have meaningful impacts, but we don't live in that world. With a fixed population, a highly transmissible disease is largely unaffected by single digit changes in spread. The only thing it affects is the speed at which the inevitable occurs, which is relevant for a hospital capacity, but not relevant for saving lives. Since hospital capacity in the overwhelming majority of the country is doing fine, then there are no remaining justifications for mask wear.

 

Except, of course, and emotional desire to feel like you're doing something, even if you really aren't.

 

And at this point, anybody advocating for masks who isn't wearing a properly fitted n95 that they are swapping out every day, is blowing so much smoke up their own ass it's amazing it's not coming back out their ears. Same goes for people who advocate for masks but eat at indoor restaurants.

[VMFA187]

2 hours ago, pawnman said:

But health insurance does cost more for smokers...?

But putting that aside, someone overdosing on drugs can't make me sick. Someone shoveling down Big Macs can't make me fat. Someone smoking can't give me lung cancer (despite all the screaming about second-hand smoke).

Unvaccinated people who refuse to wear masks absolutely increase the probability that those around them get infected.

See the difference? It's not a choice about your individual health...it's a choice that affects everyone around you. Which is usually the bar for mandates - government doesn't care if you get drunk, because that won't affect anyone else. But they care if you drive drunk, because your decision now increases the risk for others on the road. 

 

Obese people cause higher rates in general because others have to subsidize the, often, poorer segment of society who make up a larger portion of the obese. 

At age 65 the rate at which someone causes a motor vehicle accident begins to increase significantly. Should we take away all drivers licenses for people when they turn 65? 

Edited January 7, 2022 by VMFA187

[pawnman]

53 minutes ago, VMFA187 said:

 

Obese people cause higher rates in general because others have to subsidize the, often, poorer segment of society who make up a larger portion of the obese. 

At age 65 the rate at which someone causes a motor vehicle accident begins to increase significantly. Should we take away all drivers licenses for people when they turn 65? 

Take away licenses? Probably not. Increase insurance premiums? Sure. Require them to pass a new driver's test every few years? Absolutely.