COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[M2]

I guess our hope is that COVID will magically disappear like the Spanish Flu...

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-we-can-learn-from-the-1918-flu-pandemic-as-the-omicron-variant-spreads

[Lord Ratner]

38 minutes ago, Negatory said:

How about we dismount from this semantics based argument where we are nitpicking words.

This is what matters. The estimated mortality for those of any age from COVID is higher than it is from normal causes for almost every age. Usually by a significant margin. And the hospitalization rate of almost every demographic is extremely significant. Even folks in their 30s olds are hospitalized at a 2-5% rate, with those in their 60s+ hitting 15-30%.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator

Just saying that folks die anyways doesn't discount the fact that getting this disease will personally increase an individual's odds of dying by a significant factor, especially for older Americans. Are we really still arguing that? Excess deaths in America right now are estimated at about 1.0M.

It's not discounting anything. Jesus, you yourself laid out the best argument I've seen on this forum. There's simply nothing to be done. The vaccines are developed. They're not going to get any better. The therapeutics are developed, and those are getting better by the day, but they're already widely accessible. The disease is understood, and the public has been notified.

 

The only thing we could be doing differently right now is if every single person were forced to wear kn95 masks, properly fitted and regularly swapped out. I don't think that is possible. If you think the people who don't like masks are being intransigent now, just wait until you make them wear n95s, which actually do cause a fairly significant level of discomfort compared to the way humans have breathed for the last million years. And that would be until when? The hopes that a better vaccine is developed? We were infinitely lucky that the MRNA technology already existed, otherwise we'd still be waiting.

 

You clearly think this disease is a big deal. An entire segment of the population disagrees with you, including many who are most at risk. It doesn't matter which of you is correct, not even a little bit. Unless you can convince those people to be as concerned as you are, no amount of coercion is going to successfully result in the type of compliance required to make a meaningful impact on the transmission of this disease.

 

And what ended up happening? The people who think like you were unable to make a persuasive enough case, and so resorted to mandates. And in the most predictable way possible, those mandates have failed spectacularly, both in preventing/beating COVID, creating a whole new source of division in our country. And every time authorities resort to coercion and force in place of persuasion, this is what happens.

 

The excess deaths are going to come back down to normal after everybody who's particularly susceptible to it dies. That sucks, but it's also life. And it's especially life when we don't have any other options. 

 

All too often people, and especially liberal-minded people, develop policies that explicitly exclude human nature. This has been a case study in exactly that.

Edited December 27, 2021 by Lord Ratner

[brickhistory]

5 hours ago, pawnman said:

 

At least you assholes won't be in yhe military.

And I'm not really a Tina Fey fan...

[Pitt4401]

This thread could use some homegrown satire, if you can't take a joke--I feel sorry for you. 

----

Officials confused by unexpected religious accommodation requests

By Pseudonym

WASHINGTON – On deep background, defense officials shared with media outlets a mounting confusion and frustration between commanders and servicemembers sending up seemingly disingenuous religious accommodation requests to opt out of current COVID-19 vaccination requirements.

“I don’t want to put the department in a position to judge the validity of anyone’s sincerely held beliefs,” said General Max Power. “But to be candid, we are getting backchannel communications that are making us wonder if we are being deceived.”

The generalized concern has been repeated in various branches within the Department of Defense.

“We were all surprised when Lance Corporal Williams told the Master Guns he wasn’t taking the shot since fetal tissue was used in its development,” Said Capt Williams, 15th Infantry Regiment, MCRD Parris Island, SC. “My Marines were telling me all sorts of rumors, but basically they were calling him out.”

“Let’s be clear,” said Master Gunnery Sergeant Tatum. “Not only does Williams not have a moral concern about fetal tissue, he talked his last three girlfriends into abortions—I’m sorry to say that last point has gotten him the nickname ‘ace’ in the barracks”.

It’s not just the Marine Corps that are facing issues with members with seemingly incongruent values.

“Me and the Vice were puzzled when Major Smith told us his religious concern about the sanctity of life and told us ‘whoever sheds blood, shall their blood be shed’,” said Colonel Jazz Morison.  “Just the other day Smith was putting together his Air Medal package with an impressive EKIA count, not to mention his master’s paper at the Weapons Instructor Course was labeled ‘What to do when you accidentally strafe the Kabul Girl’s Checkers Club tournament’, which frankly is an oddly specific issue to be writing on—but shit, the investigation cleared him.”

In other branches some troops are noticing previously agnostic or atheist members are finding new beliefs in faith.

"So last year my supervisor was all insistent that we call the Christmas party a Holiday party, and was all like super woke’" said Staff Sgt Meyers on a twitter post.  "Fast forward to late November and we are all getting the shot, then this punk is wearing WWJD bracelets to work and demanding prayer breaks and telling me I should not reenlist so I can start a traditional family.”

[bennynova]

3 hours ago, M2 said:

I guess our hope is that COVID will magically disappear like the Spanish Flu...

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-we-can-learn-from-the-1918-flu-pandemic-as-the-omicron-variant-spreads

That is a likely scenario, yes.   

[Sim]

And we are the insane ones to point this out...

[Negatory]

18 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

You clearly think this disease is a big deal. An entire segment of the population disagrees with you, including many who are most at risk. It doesn't matter which of you is correct, not even a little bit. Unless you can convince those people to be as concerned as you are, no amount of coercion is going to successfully result in the type of compliance required to make a meaningful impact on the transmission of this disease.

This is where you're wrong, and it would be kind of hilarious if it wasn't just a reflection of the polarization of society. I actually do not think this virus is a big deal. Haven't for a few months now, especially with omicron. Check my posts. But that probably doesn't compute, as you probably only think of people on two sides. What I do think is a big deal is the pathetic way folks argue about the virus that only sows more division. The way the right - and folks on this forum, specifically - argues about COVID is super dumb in that it takes uninformed black and white stances or, a recent favorite, uses statistics in a totally inapplicable way. The "scientific" approach to any argument is clearly with the left, because the right doesn't even attempt to use data effectively.

Both sides have valid points. And both sides need to be communicated with in a way that isn't retarded, or else we aren't going to convince anyone of anything. That's why I played devil's advocate to a poorly constructed point. This forum loves to take indefensible black and white stances, and my only goal was to point out the absurdity. I am 100% sure that any solution to this pandemic that America as a whole can get on board with is in the middle. Just electing a new president in 2024 that says "fuck you" to half of America sure as fuck isn't going to help us be a better country.

Stupid arguments are the continuation of the status quo.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Negatory

[Lord Ratner]

15 minutes ago, Negatory said:

The "scientific" approach to any argument is clearly with the left, because the right doesn't even attempt to use data effectively.

Huh? See this is where I think your fantasy of you as the grand moderate falls apart.

 

We knew in March of 2020 that this disease had no documented instances of outdoor spread. But it was overwhelming the left having a panic attack over beaches and parks being open. 

 

Study after study after study have shown masks to be ineffective (for COVID), unless you limit the study to properly fitted n95. And yet the left has clung to masks harder and even I thought was possible.

 

"The science" has shown no correlation between lockdown policies and spread. Between masking policies and spread. Yet what have the blue States done?

 

The only politician I can think of that looked at the research and crafted his policy accordingly was Ron DeSantis. Others might have, but they weren't vocal about it.

 

How about all those teachers unions, which are through and through on the left? There was zero scientific justification for closing schools and masking children.

 

I agree that the right usually does a terrible job of leveraging science, but only because everyone usually does a bad job. The left only uses science because it has become their replacement to religion as they established themselves as the anti-religious party. This has been further complicated by the scientific establishment becoming politicized, as we have seen with arbitrary study retractions, and God only knows what nonsense is going to come out about the gain of function research that our chief scientists lied openly about to cover the lab leak story. There is nothing scientific about the left, I think you just really want both sides to be at fault here, furthering your analysis of the middle being the way forward, but as far as the pandemic goes that's not the case. The right has fucked up a lot of things since I've been politically aware, but they were right about covid. 

 

Of course that doesn't account for the lunatics you've pointed out who have made scientifically preposterous claims about the disease and the vaccine, but that's another fun element of this new politicized world we live in. Both sides myopically focus on the craziest elements of their opposition and erroneous seek to portray them as some sort of representation of the average. 

 

And as the left continues in their new tactic of othering and villainizing anyone who dares think contrary to their agenda, people on the right will come up with new and inaccurate justifications for their actions. And they won't make sense, but they're not willing to tell you the real reason, "I just don't want to." Because somehow that now makes you a racist, or a bigot, or you want people to die.

[VMFA187]

33 minutes ago, Negatory said:

The way the right - and folks on this forum, specifically - argues about COVID is super dumb in that it takes uninformed black and white stances or, a recent favorite, uses statistics in a totally inapplicable way. The "scientific" approach to any argument is clearly with the left, because the right doesn't even attempt to use data effectively.

 

You're wrong - Find me one person on here who is black and white about the vaccine who is conservative - That is only on the left. I guarantee you anyone who is against the vaccine personally doesn't care if others want to take it. That's the difference. We want you to be able to make a personal decision because this vaccine is anything but proven. You and everyone on the left want everyone to be forced to take it regardless of their own individual research and responsibility. 

[Negatory]

3 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

We knew in March of 2020 that this disease had no documented instances of outdoor spread.

Show me any proof of this. I think this is gonna be a tough one for you. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence - how do you make policy when you actually have so many unknowns?

3 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

Study after study after study have shown masks to be ineffective (for COVID), unless you limit the study to properly fitted n95. And yet the left has clung to masks harder and even I thought was possible.

Cloth masks have been shown to be at least 20-30%+ effective with current terrible usage, increasing with N95s. I personally don't agree with using them, but it is a far cry for someone to try to say that they are wholly ineffective.

With that being said, based on the risks to emotional health/interpersonal relationships, I believe we should accept the increased spread that would come with unmasking. But that is a different argument than "mask don't work."

4 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

How about all those teachers unions, which are through and through on the left? There was zero scientific justification for closing schools and masking children.

There is 100% a scientific justification that isolation prevents spread. Don't see how that is unscientific. Sure, the kids may not die if they get COVID, but I don't see how you can argue that this wouldn't reduce spread to their families and therefore the rest of America.

9 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

There is nothing scientific about the left, I think you just really want both sides to be at fault here, furthering your analysis of the middle being the way forward, but as far as the pandemic goes that's not the case. The right has fucked up a lot of things since I've been politically aware, but they were right about covid. 

The middle is the way forward. Maybe this is the fundamental disagreement that we won't see eye-to-eye on. Compromise and understanding is the way forward. An America of 330M people, not just half on one side or the other, is the right way.

[Negatory]

9 minutes ago, VMFA187 said:

You're wrong - Find me one person on here who is black and white about the vaccine who is conservative - That is only on the left. I guarantee you anyone who is against the vaccine personally doesn't care if others want to take it. That's the difference. We want you to be able to make a personal decision because this vaccine is anything but proven. You and everyone on the left want everyone to be forced to take it regardless of their own individual research and responsibility. 

We aren't arguing about a personal decision to get a vaccine. We're arguing about ethics of vaccine mandates. You are mad at pawnman, for example, because he believes that you, ethically, should be required to get the vaccine. You believe that vaccine mandates are wrong. And your reasoning, as just stated, was because it's "anything but proven." Which is entirely based off of feelings. Numerous studies show that the vaccine decreases hospitalization and death rates by an order of magnitude. And the only statistically significant scientifically proven side effect to this point is a mild increase in risk of myocarditis in males under the age of 30. Also, your comments about "individual research" are a copout to try to legitimize any idea, regardless of source or evidence to the contrary.

And I don't believe in blanket vaccine mandates, which, again, is hilarious in how you can't wrap your mind around that.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Negatory

[Negatory]

There are many ideas that are not just "I support mandates" or "I don't support mandates."

For example, I think that mandating vaccines for high risk populations - those at a 10%+ risk of being admitted to the hospital, based on age, gender, race, BMI, previous health conditions - could be in the interest of America.

If you don't like the idea of a mandate, then let's do it economically. Maybe we should increase taxes on society by a blanket 3% and then offer a grant to any high-risk person who gets vaccinated while offering the vaccine to everyone.

I talked about it at the beginning of the pandemic, but I was strongly in support of providing a temporary monthly unemployment allowance to those over the age of 60 or anyone who is provably high risk so that they could isolate if they choose. If they don't, then they go to the hospital and die on their own dime. The rest of society keeps working and chugging along. Once the vaccine came out, let it be a personal decision, for the most part, as to how much risk you wanted to accept from COVID. If you choose to not get vaccinated when you're high risk, then you do so at your own risk.

And to be clear, the only reason I don't support continued mandates is because everyone has been given the opportunity to protect themselves. I would not have supported no mandates or government intervention prior to about March this year. Do you see how this is a gray continuum that is different than mandates forever or no mandates ever?

Edited December 28, 2021 by Negatory

[lloyd christmas]

Omicron cases are exploding.  Folks can’t get tests.  Thousands of flights cancelled over the holidays.  The Biden administration has egg all over their face.  The CDC lowers quarantine guidance from 10 days to 5…   The timing is curious.  Perception matters.  

Edited December 28, 2021 by lloyd christmas

[Lord Ratner]

2 hours ago, Negatory said:

Show me any proof of this.

Google it. Some of the earliest studies out of China showed single-digit cases of outdoor spread were in April. Prior to that all cases were indoors. It wasn't until the race riots in June that more cases of outdoor spread occurred, and even then a tiny fraction compared to indoor spread. This disease was spread in November 2019, not 2020. By the time it was an American crisis much was known.

 

2 hours ago, Negatory said:

how do you make policy when you actually have so many unknowns?

You don't. Because without a limiting principal, you always have the "what if" driving you to restrictions. Government's job was never to predict. But the very human desire for a pain free world pushes us to stopping hypothetical problems before they happen. The results are never pain free...

 

2 hours ago, Negatory said:

Cloth masks have been shown to be at least 20-30%+ effective with current terrible usage, increasing with N95s. I personally don't agree with using them, but it is a far cry for someone to try to say that they are wholly ineffective.

"An effect" is not the same as "effective." They were not effective and preventing spikes, saving the hospitals, or "stopping the spread." Also, 20-30% is selective science. If you put the studies together you get around 17%, which as you pointed out previously, will not have a meaningful effect of a highly transmissible virus. 

 

2 hours ago, Negatory said:

There is 100% a scientific justification that isolation prevents spread. Don't see how that is unscientific. Sure, the kids may not die if they get COVID, but I don't see how you can argue that this wouldn't reduce spread to their families and therefore the rest of America.

This is also selective science. We have plenty of research showing why isolation is untenable. Humans just don't do it, and when they closed everything public, people just started meeting in groups at private residences, literally the worst environment for spread. There were also no spread differences noted between countries with differing school policies, indicating that schools were not vectors for spread. Sure, "scientifically" there's going to be some measurable difference, but as I said before, effect ≠ effective. Part of scientific studies is measuring effect, not just on a number but on an outcome. None of the studies indicated that school closures would have a meaningful effect, and Europe actually followed that science. Children didn't stop playing, they didn't start wearing N95 masks properly, and so they didn't stop spreading (insofar as children were spreading the disease, if at all). A scientific study on a hypothetical is sometimes neat, but it doesn't work for policy justification.

 

2 hours ago, Negatory said:

Compromise and understanding is the way forward.

On that we agree, but the new definition of compromise from the left is you compromise your position to join mine.

 

You're guilty of the same breathless posturing. Are you ok with a 5-15% mortality rate? Yeah dude, I am. So lets compromise. States that aren't ok with it lock down. States that are can open up. 

 

The problem with compromise from a political standpoint is that we already have it built it. States' rights was designed specifically to allow for compromise. But the left wants everything dictated from the federal level. That's the antithesis of compromise. But California can't run their lockdown the way they want unless Texas locks down too. Yes... That's the compromise.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Lord Ratner

[Negatory]

Okay, we’ll I’m not okay with a 5-15% and 30% mortality rate for a population that will almost surely get infected with entirely unmitigated spread. That’s where we disagree! Great, we figured it out.

[Pooter]

One of the few joys of this pandemic has been watching the pro mandate/lockdown far left bicker with the staunch anti-vax far right while not a single one of them realizes they're two sides of the same coin.. Both wildly misinterpreting the data to arrive at garbage conclusions. 

[Negatory]

Just now, Pooter said:

One of the few joys of this pandemic has been watching the pro mandate/lockdown far left bicker with the staunch anti-vax far right while not a single one of them realizes they're two sides of the same coin.. Both wildly misinterpreting the data to arrive at garbage conclusions. 

Also nice to see people not engage in any amount of data analysis and instead sit on the sidelines with a sense of smug superiority.

[Negatory]

On 12/22/2021 at 1:30 PM, ViperMan said:

Why is that important? Because it adds to my suspicion that this is all theater. And every day that passes, I become more and more convinced that it actually is. We locked down when this thing first began, and at its absolute worst, we were seeing ~250K/ cases per day with ~3-4K deaths per day (if you subscribe to the notion that COVID was the sole cause of death, which I do not; https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html). Now, you're telling me that this thing is going to imminently peak not only to that level, but at a rate (mathematical certainty) that will top it by 4X!!! Are you kidding me?

We just got to 2X on confirmed cases. Probably 1.0M a day if you include unreported literally now. I’m not kidding you!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-tally-us-counts-more-than-500000-new-covid-cases-in-a-day-lifting-the-daily-average-to-a-near-1-year-high-2021-12-28

[Pooter]

5 minutes ago, Negatory said:

Also nice to see people not engage in any amount of data analysis and instead sit on the sidelines with a sense of smug superiority.

You're mistaking the sidelines for the moderate center, which strangely enough is where all the data points to.  

[FT11]

4 hours ago, Negatory said:

We just got to 2X on confirmed cases. Probably 1.0M a day if you include unreported literally now. I’m not kidding you!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-tally-us-counts-more-than-500000-new-covid-cases-in-a-day-lifting-the-daily-average-to-a-near-1-year-high-2021-12-28

I think this is a good thing, the sooner we can get to 1M+ per day while deaths remain below 2k per day or decrease even further the sooner we can realize COVID for what’s it’s become…the common cold, and within 9 months everyone will have had it.  Before anyone tries to get on their high horse about “PEoPle ArE DyInG ItS NoT A CoLd”….colds and their symptoms (aka coronaviruses) have been killing people for millennia

[ViperMan]

5 hours ago, Negatory said:

We just got to 2X on confirmed cases. Probably 1.0M a day if you include unreported literally now. I’m not kidding you!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-tally-us-counts-more-than-500000-new-covid-cases-in-a-day-lifting-the-daily-average-to-a-near-1-year-high-2021-12-28

I'm not surprised by this. Omicron is like, what, 70x as infectious as the other variants? And it can break through multiple shots? My point - which I include again below for your convenience, so you can read it again - is to say that I don't believe the HYPE around this next variant.

On 12/22/2021 at 2:30 PM, ViperMan said:

And all we get from #1 is a statement that if your vaxxed, you can go on vacation, but if you're not, you're gonna die??? Mkay. I don't believe you. I don't believe that these people actually think we're heading to a space where 12,000-16,000 people are going to be dying every day. I don't believe they believe that. If they did, they'd be taking different steps. It's fear porn in order to justify expediency that there is otherwise no appetite for. If they do believe that, and that's all they're doing, then they're even more cynical people than I already think.

All I'm saying is that they are either:

1. Lying about what they think will happen re: the death rate.
2. So cynical that they are right about impending doom and don't have the balls to act, or just don't care.

It's one of those two things. Neither one is complimentary to the administration. Now, if they suspect that literally a 100,000 people will be dying every week with this thing and they don't lock down? Hmmm...I'll be looking for LOTS of resignations from the people in charge of this thing. They have the power, and if they don't exercise if for political reasons, then they are done. More than they already are.

Thus far, Omicron has not been the scourge it could have been. It's highly infections, but not very virulent.

14 people have died in the UK (https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-says-14-deaths-129-hospitalised-by-omicron-2021-12-22/) as of a couple days ago, and more will.

Here are some unavoidable facts:

1. This bug is EXTRAORDINARILY transmissible. Regardless of vax status.
2. This bug is highly likely to infect you. Regardless of vax status.
3. If you get it, you are highly likely to spread it. Regardless of vax status.
4. If you wear a mask, you're probably doing something, but not much to help avoid spreading or catching it.

So, with that established, what is the point of all the panic? What is the point of mandates? What is the point of calling it a "pandemic of the unvaccinated"? How about we just let people be educated about the disease and their options, and call it a day? That's my vote.

[Prozac]

5 minutes ago, ViperMan said:

All I'm saying is that they are either:

1. Lying about what they think will happen re: the death rate.
2. So cynical that they are right about impending doom and don't have the balls to act, or just don't care.

It's one of those two things. 

Or, and here me out here, it COULD be that they are still unsure about how dangerous the variant is (yes we have preliminary data that symptoms are mild, but it takes time for real, actionable data to be verified) and are simply playing it safe until we know for sure that it is less severe. Why do we have to go straight to conspiracy when there is a far more likely, simple explanation? 

[ViperMan]

6 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Or, and here me out here, it COULD be that they are still unsure about how dangerous the variant is (yes we have preliminary data that symptoms are mild, but it takes time for real, actionable data to be verified) and are simply playing it safe until we know for sure that it is less severe. Why do we have to go straight to conspiracy when there is a far more likely, simple explanation? 

Mmmmmm...I think they know, because it's what the preliminary data shows. If it was 70x as infectious with the same death rate (or worse, possibly) do you think they'd be justified in not locking down again? Would they be justified to allow college football to continue? How about in-restaurant dining? Seems to me that it was all well and good to lock down last year, but now for some reason it's unacceptable. Why is it different now? Why aren't we locking down? Not why won't we lock down in a week or two, why haven't we already locked down? Ask yourself that.

Edited December 29, 2021 by ViperMan
wrong word

[Prozac]

35 minutes ago, ViperMan said:

Mmmmmm...I think they know, because it's what the preliminary data shows. If it was 70x as infectious with the same death rate (or worse, possibly) do you think they'd be justified in not locking down again? Would they be justified to allow college football to continue? How about in-restaurant dining? Seems to me that it was all well and good to lock down last year, but now for some reason it's unacceptable. Why is it different now? Why aren't we locking down? Not why won't we lock down in a week or two, why haven't we already locked down? Ask yourself that.

Again, they’re being cautious by reacting but not overreacting until they have real data. Remember, the simplest answer is very often the correct one. Put yourself in the shoes of the policy maker where the whole country is on edge waiting for your decision & half of them are likely to lambast whatever policy you decide on. Now add in the fact that you might want to be re-elected someday and it’s really not that hard to understand where this (or any) administration is coming from. 

[ViperMan]

6 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Again, they’re being cautious by reacting but not overreacting until they have real data. Remember, the simplest answer is very often the correct one. Put yourself in the shoes of the policy maker where the whole country is on edge waiting for your decision & half of them are likely to lambast whatever policy you decide on. Now add in the fact that you might want to be re-elected someday and it’s really not that hard to understand where this (or any) administration is coming from. 

So in-restaurant dining, football games, and the like are all ok with you then? Football playoffs are all good? If so, what is the big deal then and what is this conversation even about anymore? I'm just so confused at the apparent inconsistency between what we have seen thus far, and what the prediction is, and the difference between the two.

I'm not an idiot, and I just can't reconcile it. Also, I'm not predisposed to giving these people the benefit of the doubt anymore just playing my violin and being polite to all the other people who seem content to just go down with the ship.