COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[Negatory]

https://www.axios.com/cdc-omicron-death-delta-variant-covid-959f1e3a-b09c-4d31-820c-90071f8e7a4f.html
 

Keeping up with the data. Current studies are showing Omicron has a ~90% reduction in mortality, ~75% reduction in ICU admission, and ~50% reduction in hospitalization compared to previous variants. Would be nice if it was 90% across the board, because this will still overrun the hospital systems based on having 5-10x the cases. Oh well.

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, Negatory said:

https://www.axios.com/cdc-omicron-death-delta-variant-covid-959f1e3a-b09c-4d31-820c-90071f8e7a4f.html
 

Keeping up with the data. Current studies are showing Omicron has a ~90% reduction in mortality, ~75% reduction in ICU admission, and ~50% reduction in hospitalization compared to previous variants. Would be nice if it was 90% across the board, because this will still overrun the hospital systems based on having 5-10x the cases. Oh well.

This article is maddening and illustrates why there is so much confusion.  Not a dig on you but peel the onion back a bit and watch Facui hijack the result.

I might be an internet epidemiologist but I am certainly NOT an expert.  That being said, from what I've read about other pandemics the "usual" evolution is for the virus to mutate and become more transmissible and less lethal.  That certainly appears to be the case with Omicron as outlined by this study.  "Yes, but: While we are seeing early evidence that Omicron is less severe than Delta, and that those infected are less likely to require hospitalization, it's important to note that Omicron continues to be much more transmissible than Delta," Walensky said.  Ok, the numbers seem to support these statements.

Now the rub - the numbers you show above are great but are not cross-correlated to vaccinated versus unvaccinated, boosted versus non-boosted.  All we have is the comment from our dear leader who says - NIAID director Anthony Fauci added that those who are vaccinated and boosted are much less likely to get severe illness from Omicron.

 

 

 

[Negatory]

28 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

This article is maddening and illustrates why there is so much confusion.  Not a dig on you but peel the onion back a bit and watch Facui hijack the result

.….

Now the rub - the numbers you show above are great but are not cross-correlated to vaccinated versus unvaccinated, boosted versus non-boosted.  All we have is the comment from our dear leader who says - NIAID director Anthony Fauci added that those who are vaccinated and boosted are much less likely to get severe illness from Omicron.

Yes they are, don’t where you’re basing your opinion from. The study is at the top of the article, I’ll assume you didn’t read it. Check it out:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1.full-text
 

They clearly control and account for vaccination status, previous infection, age, sex, and comorbidities. The data shows BOTH that omicron is likely less severe AND vaccines are effective at reducing hospitalization/death.

Edited January 14, 2022 by Negatory

[ClearedHot]

5 minutes ago, Negatory said:

Yes they are, don’t where you’re basing your opinion from. The study is at the top of the article, I’ll assume you didn’t read it. Check it out:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1.full-text
 

They clearly control and account for vaccination status, previous infection, age, sex, and comorbidities. The data shows BOTH that omicron is likely less severe AND vaccines are effective at reducing hospitalization/death.

The study does, but the article doesn't, that was the point.  We distill everything into small bytes because people won't take the time to read. 

[Buddy Spike]

2 hours ago, Negatory said:

https://www.axios.com/cdc-omicron-death-delta-variant-covid-959f1e3a-b09c-4d31-820c-90071f8e7a4f.html
 

Keeping up with the data. Current studies are showing Omicron has a ~90% reduction in mortality, ~75% reduction in ICU admission, and ~50% reduction in hospitalization compared to previous variants. Would be nice if it was 90% across the board, because this will still overrun the hospital systems based on having 5-10x the cases. Oh well.

It's a cold.  

[Negatory]

9 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

The study does, but the article doesn't, that was the point.  We distill everything into small bytes because people won't take the time to read. 

Ah. Do you see something in the article that is not corroborated by the study? Or is there something in the study that is intentionally left out of the article.

I guess I don’t see the issue if it generally accurately portrays the main points of the study.

[Negatory]

1 minute ago, Buddy Spike said:

It's a cold.  

Sure. If you can show me that a cold causes 150k concurrent hospitalizations, I’ll agree with you.

[Buddy Spike]

2 minutes ago, Negatory said:

Sure. If you can show me that a cold causes 150k concurrent hospitalizations, I’ll agree with you.

Has Omnicron actually caused that (verified?)

I had it a week ago.  Everyone I know that's had it has had the same symptoms.  Two weeks earlier I had an upper respiratory infection that was exponentially worse.  

[Negatory]

5 minutes ago, Buddy Spike said:

Has Omnicron actually caused that (verified?)

I had it a week ago.  Everyone I know that's had it has had the same symptoms.  Two weeks earlier I had an upper respiratory infection that was exponentially worse.  

Yeah, it’s generally less severe than the already non-severe for our demographic delta. But it’s significantly more transmissible.

John’s Hopkins, the CDC, and the NYT are tracking hospitalizations in that ballpark. But maybe that’s not confirmed enough.

[Buddy Spike]

6 minutes ago, Negatory said:

Yeah, it’s generally less severe than the already non-severe for our demographic delta. But it’s significantly more transmissible.

John’s Hopkins, the CDC, and the NYT are tracking hospitalizations in that ballpark. But maybe that’s not confirmed enough.

It is, because it's a common cold.  It doesn't require near the hospitalizations as any other variant. This is how it burns itself out.  Time to stop this insanity.  

[TheNewGazmo]

Sure. If you can show me that a cold causes 150k concurrent hospitalizations, I’ll agree with you.

What classifies a hospitalization? ER visit? Overnight stay? Gunshot wound and COVID positive? Gallstones and COVID positive? Remember, hospitals are getting MONEY for COVID positive patients, putting people with COVID on ventilators (whether they really need them or not) and deaths with COVID, not necessary from COVID. Can't really believe all of the numbers we read because there is f@ckery going on. Anyone who denies that is in another world. I went to the ER years ago for the flu. Did I have to? Probably not, but I had a bad cough and wanted to get a chest x-ray. How many people are going to the hospital out of precausion?

[Negatory]

If you think the fact that we have multiple orders of magnitude more people on ventilators for respiratory distress than previous years is due largely to hospitals forcing otherwise healthy people to be intubated, then I’ve got nothing for you.

We can discuss data at face value, or we can be skeptical of literally everything. I’m not gonna engage with super conspiracy theories with almost no evidence.

[disgruntledemployee]

26 minutes ago, Buddy Spike said:

It's a cold.  

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with a girl who saw Ferris pass-out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious.  He was going to visit his granny and decided to take a test, come to find out, negative. Just some sort of teenager, get outta school, cold.

(Last part is true. Know a person, got sick, thought rona, fam visit with olds coming up, got a test. Just a cold with cough. Shit, thought colds were extinct these days.)

[Lord Ratner]

3 hours ago, Negatory said:

https://www.axios.com/cdc-omicron-death-delta-variant-covid-959f1e3a-b09c-4d31-820c-90071f8e7a4f.html
 

Keeping up with the data. Current studies are showing Omicron has a ~90% reduction in mortality, ~75% reduction in ICU admission, and ~50% reduction in hospitalization compared to previous variants. Would be nice if it was 90% across the board, because this will still overrun the hospital systems based on having 5-10x the cases. Oh well.

If you look at the countries that already went through Omicron, we are most likely peaking already. Delta followed the same parallel course.

 

Does not look like hospitals will be overrun. Especially when you consider the massive reduction in hospital stay length from omicron. 

Edited January 14, 2022 by Lord Ratner

[TheNewGazmo]

Yeah, it’s generally less severe than the already non-severe for our demographic delta. But it’s significantly more transmissible.
John’s Hopkins, the CDC, and the NYT are tracking hospitalizations in that ballpark. But maybe that’s not confirmed enough.

You've got nothing for me because you don't know the facts.  It's all on the internet.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/

And if you don't believe that, I went through airline training with a an older fellow who almost died from COVID and he explained exactly what's in the article above because he refused the ventilator.  His sister, a nurse, actually told him to refuse the ventilator in favor of a BiPAP machine w/O2 (and slept on his stomach) for 3 weeks in the hospital, which is most likely what kept him alive.  He had a pulse/ox of 82% when he got to the hospital. Doctors are trigger happy with the ventilators, again, because they get money for using them.  They don't get money for using a BiPAP machine.

[Buddy Spike]

43 minutes ago, Negatory said:

If you think the fact that we have multiple orders of magnitude more people on ventilators for respiratory distress than previous years is due largely to hospitals forcing otherwise healthy people to be intubated, then I’ve got nothing for you.

We can discuss data at face value, or we can be skeptical of literally everything. I’m not gonna engage with super conspiracy theories with almost no evidence.

Due to Omicron?  

Prove it.

It's an upper respiratory variant.  

Edited January 14, 2022 by Buddy Spike

[M2]

[MCO]

1 hour ago, Buddy Spike said:

It is, because it's a common cold.  It doesn't require near the hospitalizations as any other variant. This is how it burns itself out.  Time to stop this insanity.  

I agree with you that over the top reactions needing to stop and most of our countermeasures right now aren’t doing anything, are for show, and we should be accepting more risk, but the 2000 Americans that died yesterday from it would probably say it’s still more than a common cold even if it’s usually less severe.

we should be framing it for what it is, and making risk decisions that make sense. My two options now are it’s a common cold and any reaction is over the top, or it’s the Black Death and everyone will die if they don’t mask up with 7 masks. 
 

It can be more than a common cold and your argument can still be valid that we should be getting back to normal.

[Buddy Spike]

28 minutes ago, MCO said:

I agree with you that over the top reactions needing to stop and most of our countermeasures right now aren’t doing anything, are for show, and we should be accepting more risk, but the 2000 Americans that died yesterday from it would probably say it’s still more than a common cold even if it’s usually less severe.

we should be framing it for what it is, and making risk decisions that make sense. My two options now are it’s a common cold and any reaction is over the top, or it’s the Black Death and everyone will die if they don’t mask up with 7 masks. 
 

It can be more than a common cold and your argument can still be valid that we should be getting back to normal.

 

2000 Americans died with it or of it?  Which variant?

How many Americans died yesterday of other causes?

[Blue]

3 hours ago, Negatory said:

We can discuss data at face value, or we can be skeptical of literally everything. I’m not gonna engage with super conspiracy theories with almost no evidence.

After two years of all this, I think many people are indeed at the point of being "skeptical of literally everything."

Also, when it comes to Covid, yesterday's "conspiracy theory" has more than once become today's "accepted fact."

[Negatory]

Selection bias is rife. Yesterday’s  conspiracy theories have often been actually conspiracy theories. See how COVID was over in Apr 2020, then Aug 2020, then Apr 2021, then… or how hydroxychloriquine was a miracle drug… etc.

Im just posting data. You guys can get offended at data if you like, but we’re at the point of no more rational discourse if that’s the case.

Edited January 14, 2022 by Negatory

[MCO]

2 hours ago, Buddy Spike said:

 

2000 Americans died with it or of it?  Which variant?

How many Americans died yesterday of other causes?

How many Americans died yesterday of the common cold?

[Buddy Spike]

1 minute ago, MCO said:

How many Americans died yesterday of the common cold?

Great question.

No one cares because it's not politicized.  

[VMFA187]

1 hour ago, MCO said:

How many Americans died yesterday of the common cold?

How many Americans died yesterday *with* the common cold?

[MCO]

3 hours ago, Buddy Spike said:

Great question.

No one cares because it's not politicized.  

 

It is politicized. But you can’t say that the few thousand colds kill a year, or the 30,000 the flu kills a year is the same as COVID so far. It isn’t. That said, I mostly agree with you when it comes to overreaction of responses. Just be real about explaining the difference and the risk you are taking. I think the risk is low, much lower than the media makes it seem. I also think the risk is higher than the common cold. I don’t think those are two opposing views.