COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[nsplayr]

This is good. Video explanation of this plan: https://ethics.harvard.edu/covid-roadmap

 

[brickhistory]

Americans don't like mandatory reflective belts.

[Lord Ratner]

12 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Here is an actual plan for coming out of this crisis from Dr. Scott Gottlieb, Trump’s first FDA head, and others at AEI.
 

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

Key takeaways are the triggers/conditions to move from one phase to another. We are in Phase 1 now.

They write:

A state can safely proceed to Phase II when it has achieved all the following:

• A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
• Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,²².

The first one is stupid. The second we lower restrictions, of course the number of cases will rise until we have herd immunity. Then what? Lockdown again?

 

The second one is the whole point. We locked down so the medical system could beef up and prepare for the flood. They should be ready by now. In many states they absolutely are.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Lord Ratner

[busdriver]

1 hour ago, nsplayr said:

This is good. Video explanation of this plan: https://ethics.harvard.edu/covid-roadmap

Jesus, that video is patronizing.  So to be clear the short version is: don't open the go back to work tap all the way, keep the stream of folks going back out to a medium pace so that when people start getting sick there isn't a huge pool of potential infectees to feed a spike and more tests available to catch a spike earlier (hopefully before it become a full blown epidemic).

And support and feels and stuff.

[BashiChuni]

9 hours ago, pbar said:

Getting the public to trust the decisions being made would be a helluva lot easier if our elites hadn't totally thrown their credibility in the toilet long before. We now live in a world where there is no penalty for failing or being wrong if you are in the elite class.  Yet they expect us to do as they say without question....

seriously. three weeks ago the surgeon general was telling us to NOT wear masks.

faucci has been wrong multiple times in the last few months. not faulting those dudes for course correcting, but fucking spare me if i refuse to throw away the united states constitution because the "expert government people" are telling me to comply with a new directive.

they'd have a lot more credibility if they refused THEIR paychecks until we open back up. Sure is easy to hide behind the government check cashing every two weeks...

[Stoker]

3 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

The second one is the whole point. We locked down so the medical system could beef up and prepare for the flood. They should be ready by now. In many states they absolutely are.

I'm not so sure they did. I was really expecting to see some move to surge the number of healthcare workers, and it doesn't seem like that's happened. I think New York let NYU's graduating medical school class practice a few months early, but otherwise nothing. It's too bad a big portion of the stimulus wasn't a "How to be a COVID-19 healthcare support worker" program for newly unemployed people, maybe with the course counting for credit towards an RN after the emergency is over.

[Lord Ratner]

16 minutes ago, Stoker said:

I'm not so sure they did. I was really expecting to see some move to surge the number of healthcare workers, and it doesn't seem like that's happened. I think New York let NYU's graduating medical school class practice a few months early, but otherwise nothing. It's too bad a big portion of the stimulus wasn't a "How to be a COVID-19 healthcare support worker" program for newly unemployed people, maybe with the course counting for credit towards an RN after the emergency is over.

In Texas and Georgia there is no shortage (beyond the usual) of hospital beds, ventilators, or doctors. NYC is the exception, not the rule.

[raimius]

16 hours ago, Pooter said:

Exactly.  People are far too eager to declare a premature victory over this thing and return to normalcy without any semblance of a structured approach.  I think it's partly frustration with the lockdown and partly desensitization.  Mortality numbers like we're seeing today would have been unimaginable in January, but when CNN jams them down your throat 24/7, eventually it stops being alarming.

Agreed on the first part.

I'm not quite so sure on the desensitized part.  Before this, I had not realized we regularly lose upwards of 50k to the flu on a yearly basis.  It's one of those things that is the result of working with large population numbers, but you don't really think about the numbers until you try to start comparisons.  CNN doesn't go into months of coverage for 48k suicides or 50k flu deaths (not to mention cancer, heart disease, etc).  I'd rather say that people DO worry about what CNN et. al. squawk about, rather than what is actually happening or not.

(e.g. people fear active shooters more than car crashes, but one source kills dozens in a year while the other is 20k-30k)

[brabus]

9 hours ago, busdriver said:

keep the stream of folks going back out to a medium pace so that when people start getting sick there isn't a huge pool

Apparently they haven’t been paying attention to all of us essential workers who’s lives generally haven’t changed, yet we’re all healthy (including our families we come home to everyday) and we’re not rushing to the hospital. Haven’t had a single case for over a 1000 sample size on our base. Many of my non-mil friends are essential - nothing there either. Temp hospitals totally unused...yeah, but I’m sure this “medium stream” group of people will be TOTALLY different. 

[Guardian]

I understand your point, but this is exactly how regular flu deaths are counted as well.. the flu doesn't usually kill young, healthy people either. If you want an apples to apples comparison you can't ignore pre-existing condition cases for covid, while including them in the normal flu death rate.  
And when you do that comparison you find that covid19 has killed as many Americans in April as a mid range annual flu deaths estimate.  
Coronavirus: ~35k deaths since the end of March.
Flu: annual estimates range from 12k-61k deaths
And that's with the entire country being shut down and almost all of our medical capacity converted to combat this one virus.  

Thought you wanted to compare apples to apples? Have we shut down and hole quarantined for the flu? No but you quote death numbers for it. Then we have been home quarantined for covid and yet you quote it’s death numbers in the same breath. Not apples to apples.

[Bobsan]

Here's a S. Korean surgical and cotton (not N95) mask effectiveness study to add some fuel to the fire.

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison

According to this, coughing with a surgical or cotton mask on when you got the 'rona is like farting with a flight suit on when you had a greasy chimichanga.

[BashiChuni]

6 hours ago, Bobsan said:

Here's a S. Korean surgical and cotton (not N95) mask effectiveness study to add some fuel to the fire.

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison

According to this, coughing with a surgical or cotton mask on when you got the 'rona is like farting with a flight suit on when you had a greasy chimichanga.

but did they study bandannas? or neck garders? i bet those are pretty darn effective.

[busdriver]

12 hours ago, brabus said:

Apparently they haven’t been paying attention to all of us essential workers who’s lives generally haven’t changed, yet we’re all healthy (including our families we come home to everyday) and we’re not rushing to the hospital.

I would assume there's a huge variable in population density and general culture that can't really be accounted for in the models, since they're just best fit curve differential equations.

The public national policy making conversation centers around the major urban areas. 

There's lot of stupid running around these days though; the doc on base made a point of telling us someone had done a study to determine that temps would have to get up to 150ish degrees to kill the virus so the summer wouldn't be helping...........  I'm not really sure why "they" thought that air temperature in the summer was the key variable instead of a change in human behavior, but what do I know.

In any event, if my sarcastic cliff's notes is about what they're thinking, it's probably not a terrible way to calm the nerves of the panic monsters in the major urban areas.

[pawnman]

8 hours ago, busdriver said:

I would assume there's a huge variable in population density and general culture that can't really be accounted for in the models, since they're just best fit curve differential equations.

The public national policy making conversation centers around the major urban areas. 

There's lot of stupid running around these days though; the doc on base made a point of telling us someone had done a study to determine that temps would have to get up to 150ish degrees to kill the virus so the summer wouldn't be helping...........  I'm not really sure why "they" thought that air temperature in the summer was the key variable instead of a change in human behavior, but what do I know.

In any event, if my sarcastic cliff's notes is about what they're thinking, it's probably not a terrible way to calm the nerves of the panic monsters in the major urban areas.

Perhaps, but I bet in summer in a lot of places car interiors and aircraft interiors reach 150 prior to applying power and AC.  And where do people spend a lot of time before congregating with other people?

[war007afa]

I was sitting outside on the balcony outside our AirBnB last night watching the world go by (which mostly consisted of some lady yelling at people outside a liquor store a few blocks away) and I couldn't help but reflect:  how ironic is it that so many people have asked for things to slow down, more time with their families, less queep, and extraneous nonvalue-added requirements to slide off the plate, and when most of that is delivered (albeit in the midst of a fairly shitty situation and under less-than-ideal circumstances), all we want to do is bitch about it and go back to the way things were?

Is this what transitioning to the airlines is going to be like? //S

 

[pawnman]

1 hour ago, war007afa said:

I was sitting outside on the balcony outside our AirBnB last night watching the world go by (which mostly consisted of some lady yelling at people outside a liquor store a few blocks away) and I couldn't help but reflect:  how ironic is it that so many people have asked for things to slow down, more time with their families, less queep, and extraneous nonvalue-added requirements to slide off the plate, and when most of that is delivered (albeit in the midst of a fairly shitty situation and under less-than-ideal circumstances), all we want to do is bitch about it and go back to the way things were?

Is this what transitioning to the airlines is going to be like? //S

 

I bet people would love to have a slower pace of life if they didn't have to worry about where the rent money or mortgage payment was going to come from.

[uhhello]

57 minutes ago, pawnman said:

I bet people would love to have a slower pace of life if they didn't have to worry about where the rent money or mortgage payment was going to come from.

Yup.  Pretty easy to sit at home or wherever drawing a full paycheck while flying a few lines here and there.  

[AirGuardianC141747]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

I bet people would love to have a slower pace of life if they didn't have to worry about where the rent money or mortgage payment was going to come from.

So true, and so many other bills that we’ve all bought into literally. Although, many are substantiated some are not. Everyone creates they’re own destiny per say and this may be a moment of clarity. It’s a good thought and everyone’s situation is different.

1 hour ago, uhhello said:

Yup.  Pretty easy to sit at home or wherever drawing a full paycheck while flying a few lines here and there.  

That sounds like a former airline gig with a bit of seniority. Things will return, changed in some fashion perhaps, but return. Overall, enjoy the slower pace while you can as others have mentioned before. Get to know your families again, do some yard work if you have one, read a book or two (or on a reader, your choice), do something in your favor, chill and re-emerge with vigor once again. Overall, as a side note this is a good reset opportunity to see what’s important in your life and if you deem you have enough time, venture out and do those “bucket list” items you have always put on the back burner for some reason or another. My motto: “ONE LIFE!” Just think about it. There is only so much you can supposedly control so why not focus on those that make the difference.

Edited April 23, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[Pooter]

On 4/22/2020 at 7:25 AM, Guardian said:

Thought you wanted to compare apples to apples? Have we shut down and hole quarantined for the flu? No but you quote death numbers for it. Then we have been home quarantined for covid and yet you quote it’s death numbers in the same breath. Not apples to apples.

... that's the point.  The flu runs rampant every year with no global shutdown, yet covid19 killed the equivalent of annual flu numbers in a month even with everything we've done to try to mitigate it.

The point is that one is clearly more dangerous than the other.  The reaction is more severe because the threat is more severe.  

[AirGuardianC141747]

Definitely not apples to apples; therefore, what would the numbers be if we hadn’t. Nobody knows but an educated guess would be significantly more.
 

Totally agree there will be lessons learned on what to protect and shutdown first, etc. Probably won’t go super draconian or anything and we hopefully learn from the shutdown and how we restart this all back up. Good test certainly for something totally hideous which attacks everything much more violently. Just learn America...and all states are not created equal which is known but not so soundly proven until now. Baby steps, then start running in strong areas hard which you all know already.

Edited April 24, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[ryleypav]

In other news, you can now paint your garden boxes that you've installed on your motor boat, while working on your short game in MI now. 

[nsplayr]

"This American Hero Flew an Airplane Over Maryland in a Flight Path That Spelled 'F— Covid 19'"

https://www.washingtonian.com/2020/04/29/this-american-hero-flew-an-airplane-over-maryland-in-a-flight-path-that-spelled-f-covid-19/

Someone send this kid a recruiting package!

“We’d just got a new compass in the airplane, and I just had to check it out somehow,” he says. 😄

Edited April 29, 2020 by nsplayr

[AirGuardianC141747]

Although not a perfect defense against this situation, Untied supposedly will be handing out masks to passengers in May. Business is business time to get back to work and do what you should do. Guess I will put United to the test in May and hopefully get a free mask. Can’t take credit for this image on APC, but it does simplify it for anyone. Too funny and so straightforward.

Edited April 30, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[brabus]

That is a nice, little invalid analogy I’ve seen going around. Cloth masks do not remotely stop spread as compared to jeans stopping piss.

[waveshaper]

I'll avoid the naked guy fights.