COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

[ecugringo]

16 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Not to mention "flattening the curve" as a course of action never meant "two weeks and Covid will disappear".  It was designed to spread the inevitable infections out in time so as not to overwhelm the health care system.  Which I would say was moderately successful.

From what I recall the volume of cases was always to be the same, just hte timing spread out over time.  Either way, most sold the notion that 2 weeks to flatten the curve and Covid will start to wane.

 

Here we are 18 months later and we are in the 3rd wave.  The last 2 were higher than the 1st.  Unfortunately what nobody will really admit is that Covid is not going away and we are to deal with it.  It would be good to also broadcast that personnel health is your own responsibility and instead of hiding out eating cheetos, the US should focus on losing weight and being a healthier society.

 

My 4 yr old loves Wall-E, its on every other day.  Its sad that it is becoming our reality.

[FlyingWolf]

1 hour ago, Negatory said:

”Flattening the Curve” was never pushed by science. You’re being propagandized.

Being pedantic here... I agree. Science doesn't push anything really, people do. Science is a method and a body of evidence.  A lot of people sure did claim the moniker of "science" in their political BS though.

 

I actually really appreciate the study and wish I had seen it sooner in all this.  I think the mitigation/suppression framing should have been part of the discussion all along, with empirically based analysis informing our inherently values-based public policy... out in the open... with leaders being particular about the science and the values informing their decisions... the humility to admit the huge data quality limitations... and the courage to defend values outside of simplistic "if it saves one life" first-order-effect focused demagoguery.

 

 

Edited August 23, 2021 by FlyingWolf

[Negatory]

57 minutes ago, FlyingWolf said:

I think the mitigation/suppression framing should have been part of the discussion all along, with empirically based analysis informing our inherently values-based public policy... out in the open... with leaders being particular about the science and the values informing their decisions... the humility to admit the huge data quality limitations... and the courage to defend values outside of simplistic "if it saves one life" first-order-effect focused demagoguery.

Spot on.

[glockenspiel]

What about an explanation of that VAERS data? An explanatory document written by the FDA of the data reported AE to date? I would gladly share this with people who are on the fence but to date the only response I’ve got/articles I’ve just say correlation≠ causation. End of story. No deeper dive…? 

Also what about that natural immunity tho? Still on the search for evidence of benefit of vaccinating previously infected people. 

also why is the PCR test EUA being revoked in December? (Please no news articles.) How reliable are the PCR tests compared to Sanger DNA sequencing? 

Feels like the fence people are sitting on is legitimate no?

[pawnman]

35 minutes ago, glockenspiel said:

What about an explanation of that VAERS data? An explanatory document written by the FDA of the data reported AE to date? I would gladly share this with people who are on the fence but to date the only response I’ve got/articles I’ve just say correlation≠ causation. End of story. No deeper dive…? 

Also what about that natural immunity tho? Still on the search for evidence of benefit of vaccinating previously infected people. 

also why is the PCR test EUA being revoked in December? (Please no news articles.) How reliable are the PCR tests compared to Sanger DNA sequencing? 

Feels like the fence people are sitting on is legitimate no?

Can't help with the VAERS data, other than that it's self-reported, which leads to some wild inconsistencies in the raw data.  CDC doesn't use it alone as a decision making tool...it's a canary in a coal mine to show when something may need further study.

As for natural immunity - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm
 

Quote

Among Kentucky residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, vaccination status of those reinfected during May–June 2021 was compared with that of residents who were not reinfected. In this case-control study, being unvaccinated was associated with 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with being fully vaccinated.

 

[glockenspiel]

16 hours ago, pawnman said:

Can't help with the VAERS data, other than that it's self-reported, which leads to some wild inconsistencies in the raw data.  CDC doesn't use it alone as a decision making tool...it's a canary in a coal mine to show when something may need further study.

As for natural immunity - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm
 

 

At what point is the “canary” dead?

https://www.openvaers.com/covid-data/mortality

 

[pawnman]

5 minutes ago, glockenspiel said:

At what point is the “canary” dead?

https://www.openvaers.com/covid-data/mortality

 

When it gets anywhere near the number of Covid deaths.  For a group that keeps touting a 99% survival rate for the illness, y'all seem awfully skittish about a 99.999% survival rate for the vaccine.

[Guardian]

I don’t think you understand the people who are choosing not to get the vaccines point. I haven’t heard anyone complain about the survival rate. I have heard people bring up that it’s not approved but not as their main point. So while the discussion points may be less now because it’s approved I hardly think the goal has changed.

If you had to state the people who don’t want the vaccines opinions, what would you say it is? Put the shoes on the other foot for a second and just indulge me.

[Guardian]

I don’t think you understand the people who are choosing not to get the vaccines point. I haven’t heard anyone complain about the survival rate. I have heard people bring up that it’s not approved but not as their main point. So while the discussion points may be less now because it’s approved I hardly think the goal has changed.

If you had to state the people who don’t want the vaccines opinions, what would you say it is? Put the shoes on the other foot for a second and just indulge me.

[Boomer6]

Looking at the vaccine mandate that was laid out for the DoD my understanding is that mil members will have to get a vaccine once it receives FDA approval. Now that Pfizer has approval that should be the only COVID vaccine members are required to get. Does that check or am I out to lunch?

[pawnman]

1 hour ago, Guardian said:

I don’t think you understand the people who are choosing not to get the vaccines point. I haven’t heard anyone complain about the survival rate. I have heard people bring up that it’s not approved but not as their main point. So while the discussion points may be less now because it’s approved I hardly think the goal has changed.

If you had to state the people who don’t want the vaccines opinions, what would you say it is? Put the shoes on the other foot for a second and just indulge me.

Mostly "It's not tested" (it is).

We don't know the long-term effects (most vaccine side-effects happen within the first two weeks.  It's extremely rare for a vaccine to have a side-effect years later).

"I shouldn't be forced to do something I don't want to do" (One wonders if these people pay taxes, obey traffic laws, or especially in the military, pitch this kind of fit over flu shots every year)

"The vaccine doesn't do anything" (even though it's been shown that breakthrough infections are rare, infection rates among the unvaccinated are far higher, and that vaccines have been shown to decrease the severity and length of Covid symptoms)

"I don't trust the FDA and CDC" (So...I guess these folks are growing their own food in their backyard?)

"I've done my research" (I hardly think that the five YouTube videos you watched from a doctor with a revoked license is "research" on the scale of a $6.5 billion organization staffed with people who have studied viral infections for a decade, but hell, maybe these people have their own microbiology lab set up in the garage I don't know about).

[ClearedHot]

7 minutes ago, RedEye1911 said:

I haven't gotten this in my email yet, but it looks real to me.

Time to sit back and see who fights it and what happens.

This should be different from the Anthrax fight.  I understand the military has the authority now that the vaccine is approved but there are some serious issues that need to be addressed.  What if a person has already had COVID and has natural immunity?  I am sure there will be some who stand on principle and it will lead to some court cases...sadly those members will sacrifice their careers regardless of the ultimate outcome.

[HeloDude]

17 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

What if a person has already had COVID and has natural immunity?

Memo states that they still have to get the shot.

[ClearedHot]

15 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Memo states that they still have to get the shot.

Understood...that is what I think will be some unresolved legal ground.

[Scooter14]

Understood...that is what I think will be some unresolved legal ground.

I agree and this is where I have the issue as well.

Simply stated…What does the vaccine do? The vaccine makes your body produce antibodies that will help you fight the virus if you are exposed.

What happens when you get COVID and recover? The virus makes your body produce antibodies that will help you fight the virus if you are exposed.

If you have never had Covid, I would encourage you to consider getting vaccinated for all the reasons Pawnman stated.

If you have had Covid I believe there should be some sort of antibody test you can take to opt out if you desire.

It’s a simple concept, I don’t know why it’s not a provision. My buddy at an airline recently flew with a guy who will likely lose his job because he will not get vaccinated.

However, this individual has already had Covid. If his antibody levels (or whatever they measure) are the same or better as someone who’s had the vaccine…then they are going to lose a pilot for no reason other than an arbitrary mandate that lacks any common sense or critical thought.

That’s all, i have to go back to tending livestock in my backyard farm. Stupid FDA…

[Pooter]

1 hour ago, Scooter14 said:

 

I agree and this is where I have the issue as well.

Simply stated…What does the vaccine do? The vaccine makes your body produce antibodies that will help you fight the virus if you are exposed.

What happens when you get COVID and recover? The virus makes your body produce antibodies that will help you fight the virus if you are exposed.

If you have never had Covid, I would encourage you to consider getting vaccinated for all the reasons Pawnman stated.

If you have had Covid I believe there should be some sort of antibody test you can take to opt out if you desire.

It’s a simple concept, I don’t know why it’s not a provision. My buddy at an airline recently flew with a guy who will likely lose his job because he will not get vaccinated.

However, this individual has already had Covid. If his antibody levels (or whatever they measure) are the same or better as someone who’s had the vaccine…then they are going to lose a pilot for no reason other than an arbitrary mandate that lacks any common sense or critical thought.

That’s all, i have to go back to tending livestock in my backyard farm. Stupid FDA…

 

I don't think it's quite that simple though. Having covid definitely gives you some immunity in the short term just like the vaccine. But this pandemic has been going for a year and a half and there are people who caught covid early whose T cell immunity is definitely tapering off. 
 

Having covid is once is not a lifetime golden ticket to never having to worry about this again. And neither is the vaccine. That isn't how any of this works. Immunity tapers off over time and new variants emerge which is why you can catch seasonal flu every year if you aren't careful. 
 

The other problem is that people grossly over self-report having covid. I can't tell you how many people I've talked to who say something like "yeah I had the sniffles last March and my bunghole felt weird, I probably had it already". Relying on self reported covid is not a good way for a company to run their employee health program. 
 

So at a basic level, yes you are right. Getting covid and getting the vaccine accomplish the same thing as far as immunity. But for both, we don't know exactly how long that immunity lasts or how durable it is for future variants and relying on someone to self report their immunity is about as unreliable as it gets. Companies are always going to air on the side of caution and when you have a safe, fully approved vaccine, I don't think requiring that is some dystopian overreach. Do airlines require other vaccines? Yearly flu shots?

[pawnman]

1 hour ago, Scooter14 said:

 

I agree and this is where I have the issue as well.

Simply stated…What does the vaccine do? The vaccine makes your body produce antibodies that will help you fight the virus if you are exposed.

What happens when you get COVID and recover? The virus makes your body produce antibodies that will help you fight the virus if you are exposed.

If you have never had Covid, I would encourage you to consider getting vaccinated for all the reasons Pawnman stated.

If you have had Covid I believe there should be some sort of antibody test you can take to opt out if you desire.

It’s a simple concept, I don’t know why it’s not a provision. My buddy at an airline recently flew with a guy who will likely lose his job because he will not get vaccinated.

However, this individual has already had Covid. If his antibody levels (or whatever they measure) are the same or better as someone who’s had the vaccine…then they are going to lose a pilot for no reason other than an arbitrary mandate that lacks any common sense or critical thought.

That’s all, i have to go back to tending livestock in my backyard farm. Stupid FDA…

 

Do I need to post the CDC's Kentucky study again?

If you're unvaccinated, and you had Covid once already, you're still more than twice as likely to get Covid again as someone who got Covid and then got vaccinated.

[Pooter]

7 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Do I need to post the CDC's Kentucky study again?

If you're unvaccinated, and you had Covid once already, you're still more than twice as likely to get Covid again as someone who got Covid and then got vaccinated.

I think when unvaxxed people start re-catching it, that will massively change the way people think about covid. Right now there's a chicken pox-esque "had it once so I'm good" mentality which is completely incorrect. 
 

Similarly I think we are about to see an uptick in breakthrough cases among the vaccinated as we near the 6 month point from the first shots and that immunity tapers off over time. 

[Prozac]

51 minutes ago, Pooter said:

Do airlines require other vaccines? Yearly flu shots?

Typically no. You’d be surprised at the number of straight up anti-vax (and not just COVID) batshit crazy, supposedly educated conspiracy theorists that have outed themselves lately. There are a handful of outfits that fly into underdeveloped areas that have always required certain vaccinations. I guess the anti-vaxers have avoided applying at those places. 

[Scooter14]

Do I need to post the CDC's Kentucky study again?
If you're unvaccinated, and you had Covid once already, you're still more than twice as likely to get Covid again as someone who got Covid and then got vaccinated.

Same team Farva, same team…

I know of two people here locally who have had Covid and have had their antibodies tested a bunch of times (because they are donating plasma) and their antibody levels are high enough even months after recovering that they can still use their plasma to treat patients.

Im definitely NOT saying that if you think you’ve had Covid go ahead and call yourself good.

Im also NOT talking about getting Covid again because we all know anyone can get Covid…vaxxed, unvaxxed, previously infected…it’s the level of severity and mortality that we are trying to tamp down right?

What I’m saying is that there should be a way to determine the antibody levels of a previously infected person compared to a vaccinated person.

Antibody Levels will likely vary from person to person but I do agree with my aforementioned airline pilots argument that, if his antibody levels exceed those of vaccinated people, why make him take the shot? What is the end goal? If it’s to make sure you have antibodies against the virus he has met that goal.

Will the virus derived antibodies wear off? Sure. Will the vaccine wear off? Sure. Is there a rate in which that occurs? I don’t know.

[SpeedOfHeat]

As usual, what should have been a straight forward memo leaves most readers with several questions.

Namely and most obviously is regarding boosters.  My understanding is that 3rd shots are still under EUA. ….not the actual shot itself, which is the same as original, but the regimen of getting a 3rd after 8 months.  

Many folks got their shots in Jan/Feb/Mar.  Is the military going to consider us “unvaccinated” come Sep/Oct/Nov?

(I for one will refuse a booster for as long as it’s my choice.  I played along and got the initial two, but I’m not going to keep playing this game and being a pin cushion when I personally have no fear of Rona and still have to wear a mask regardless.  Fool me once….)

[Alpharatz]

1 hour ago, Pooter said:

I don't think it's quite that simple though. Having covid definitely gives you some immunity in the short term just like the vaccine. But this pandemic has been going for a year and a half and there are people who caught covid early whose T cell immunity is definitely tapering off. 
 

Having covid is once is not a lifetime golden ticket to never having to worry about this again. And neither is the vaccine. That isn't how any of this works. Immunity tapers off over time and new variants emerge which is why you can catch seasonal flu every year if you aren't careful. 
 

The other problem is that people grossly over self-report having covid. I can't tell you how many people I've talked to who say something like "yeah I had the sniffles last March and my bunghole felt weird, I probably had it already". Relying on self reported covid is not a good way for a company to run their employee health program. 
 

So at a basic level, yes you are right. Getting covid and getting the vaccine accomplish the same thing as far as immunity. But for both, we don't know exactly how long that immunity lasts or how durable it is for future variants and relying on someone to self report their immunity is about as unreliable as it gets. Companies are always going to air on the side of caution and when you have a safe, fully approved vaccine, I don't think requiring that is some dystopian overreach. Do airlines require other vaccines? Yearly flu shots?

That's how it went with me..never dawned on me that I might have gotten -19  until weeks later when I started hearing about it....and never did get the antibody test...so who knows...If I DID have the real thing I might have spread it globally for weeks.  In any case a few months in.. the wife and I got the bugshot...I was just reading the local paper about 60ish years ago when literally everyone raced down to get the Polio vaccine..You had to be deep into devil worship or REALLY slow to pass up that one.  Now the local farm supply places are selling horse de-wormer..it's the latest on the interweb...Would you fly with a dude/dudette who rocks with Ivermectin?!  We had a squadron reactionary or three..but NOTHING like this...

[Alpharatz]

1 hour ago, Pooter said:

I think when unvaxxed people start re-catching it, that will massively change the way people think about covid. Right now there's a chicken pox-esque "had it once so I'm good" mentality which is completely incorrect. 
 

Similarly I think we are about to see an uptick in breakthrough cases among the vaccinated as we near the 6 month point from the first shots and that immunity tapers off over time. 

We shall see..If it happens Mother N. will be up with a major human house cleaning...The poor medical dudes and dudettes are getting kicked in the gonnies/gonettes as it is now..

[bennynova]

Microchip me, daddy.  
 

my body is ready

[Bobsan]

Here's a new research paper with data fresh out of Tel Aviv, it's a massive study comparing natural to vaccine-induced immunity:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full.pdf

Quote

 

This is the largest real-world observational study comparing natural immunity, gained through previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, to vaccine-induced immunity, afforded by the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. Our large cohort, enabled by Israel’s rapid rollout of the mass-vaccination campaign, allowed us to investigate the risk for additional infection – either a breakthrough infection in vaccinated individuals or reinfection in previously infected ones – over a longer period than thus far described.

Our analysis demonstrates that SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees had a 13.06-fold increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to those previously infected, when the first event (infection or vaccination) occurred during January and February of 2021. The increased risk was significant for a symptomatic disease as well.

Broadening the research question to examine the extent of the phenomenon, we allowed the infection to occur at any time between March 2020 to February 2021 (when different variants were dominant in Israel), compared to vaccination only in January and February 2021. Although the results could suggest waning natural immunity against the Delta variant, those vaccinated are still at a 5.96-fold increased risk for breakthrough infection and at a 7.13-fold increased risk for symptomatic disease compared to those previously infected. SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees were also at a greater risk for COVID-19-related-hospitalization compared to those who were previously infected.

Individuals who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 seem to gain additional protection from a subsequent single-dose vaccine regimen. Though this finding corresponds to previous reports24,25, we could not demonstrate significance in our cohort.

The advantageous protection afforded by natural immunity that this analysis demonstrates could be explained by the more extensive immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 proteins than that generated by the anti-spike protein immune activation conferred by the vaccine26,27. However, as a correlate of protection is yet to be proven1,28, including the role of B-Cell29 and T-cell immunity30,31, this remains a hypothesis.

Our study has several limitations. First, as the Delta variant was the dominant strain in Israel during the outcome period, the decreased long-term protection of the vaccine compared to that afforded by previous infection cannot be ascertained against other strains. Second, our analysis addressed protection afforded solely by the BioNTech/Pfizer mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine, and therefore does not address other vaccines or long-term protection following a third dose, of which the deployment is underway in Israel. Additionally, as this is an observational real-world study, where PCR screening was not performed by protocol, we might be underestimating asymptomatic infections, as these individuals often do not get tested.

Lastly, although we controlled for age, sex, and region of residence, our results might be affected by differences between the groups in terms of health behaviors (such as social distancing and mask wearing), a possible confounder that was not assessed. As individuals with chronic illness were primarily vaccinated between December and February, confounding by indication needs to be considered; however, adjusting for obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cancer and immunosuppression had only a small impact on the estimate of effect as compared to the unadjusted OR. Therefore, residual confounding by unmeasured factors is unlikely.

This analysis demonstrated that natural immunity affords longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization due to the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Notably, individuals who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant. The long-term protection provided by a third dose, recently administered in Israel, is still unknown.