USAF Pilot Acceptance rates for next couple years?

[DinaMight]

I am thinking about applying for the FY21 OTS boards and I just wanted to assess how the acceptance rates will be for upcoming boards.

I ask because I have noticed a pattern.

• ~2012 there was the sequestration and the acceptance rates for anything in the USAF fell to all time lows. A void was created and needed to be filled.
• 2016-2019, these four years saw acceptance rates rise and peak around the '18-'19. A buddy of mine who was in AFROTC tells me pilots acceptance rates was as high as 90%.
• The USAF then started having problems with classes being overfilled and candidates having their EADs pushed back creating a ripple effect.
• 2020, I just applied for an OTS board this year and the acceptance rates (results not yet published) from what I can gather on FB and Reddit seems to suggest a decline for pilot slots down to ~40%

I speculate it will continue to drop for the next couple years. This COVID thing probably exacerbated this decline to some degree which I cannot specify.

Does anyone have any rumors or solid intel to confirm or deny this? 

Edited May 19, 2020 by DinaMight

[tarheelaviator]

5 hours ago, DinaMight said:

I speculate it will continue to drop for the next couple years. This COVID thing probably exacerbated this decline to some degree which I cannot specify.

Does anyone have any rumors or solid intel to confirm or deny this? 

The pilot shortage in the AF and Navy won't exist much longer if there are no options on the backend for pilots nearing the end of their ADSC other than staying in.  I suspect it is going to get much harder but I wouldn't worry about it.  Focus on what you can control, get your scores up, get more hours in, more work experience, stay physically fit, etc.  Not worth stressing on factors you can't control.  

Edited May 19, 2020 by tarheelaviator

[theoriginalturk]

That’s good advice. It’s also good to note there was never a shortage of pilot applicants. The influx of new Lt pilots being attributed to AFPC experimenting with trying to outgrow their attrition problem. Like you said the private sector has takin an enormous beating. Apparently it’s better to be lucky than smart at HAF and AFPC.

[JohnClark]

On 5/19/2020 at 9:46 AM, tarheelaviator said:

The pilot shortage in the AF and Navy won't exist much longer if there are no options on the backend for pilots nearing the end of their ADSC other than staying in.  I suspect it is going to get much harder but I wouldn't worry about it.  Focus on what you can control, get your scores up, get more hours in, more work experience, stay physically fit, etc.  Not worth stressing on factors you can't control.  

I know I shouldn't worry but as someone who is 28 and is running out of time this is a huge worry. I worry that they might change the age standards back to 28-29 as the cutoff.