The WOKE Thread (Merged from WTF?)

[M2]

2 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

Never heard of this dude, thanks for sharing. 

Just FYI, "Colin Noir" (a.k.a. Collins Iyare Idehen Jr.) is a lawyer from Houston. 

[Negatory]

16 hours ago, brabus said:

It’s true...hospital admins are the most reliable source, the Denver post is not. They literally have received more money if the patient is in the hospital for covid. Now maybe that program truly has good intentions (and I can see that), but it is a direct financial incentive to label someone as a covid patient, which absolutely skews case and death numbers. 

You keep repeating that the death numbers are skewed with nothing to back it up. What do you think has caused the >200k excess deaths in the US since Mar 2020?

[tedybearofdoom]

https://youtu.be/fK1zIz3FrKs

https://mobile.twitter.com/hoesluvglo/status/1299816285451157504

Apparently a video of Kyle Rittenhouse in an altercation (not during the protest but somewhere else). 

[gearhog]

"We got a Trumper right here."

"Right here?"

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1299937196292669440?s=20https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1299937196292669440?s=20

[FLEA]

8 hours ago, brawnie said:

You keep repeating that the death numbers are skewed with nothing to back it up. What do you think has caused the >200k excess deaths in the US since Mar 2020?

Correlation does not equal causation. It's too early to determine this. I've spent the last 20 minutes trying to find clear statistics but nothing is clear. According to the National Center of Disease control, as of April, US annual deaths were actually down about 100,000. However, in another article the CDC reports an increase in July. Regardless, the natural annual increase that occurs because of an increasing elderly population is anywhere from about 0.5% to 1.5% depending if I use the Department of Health model or the UN model. Deaths in 2017 were 2.8M but I can't find 2018 or 2019. Regardless, even half of a % of 2.8M is 140K. That's a pretty large chunk of your 200K. 

Now while the timing is interesting (you claim since March) I was looking at the 2017 chart and the majority of their deaths actually occured Feb to April. It's possible since we were down in April we are simply expereincing  correction. 

Again, your data is interesting, but not compelling. I don't think we'll be able to discern measurable casualties until 2-3 years after this thing is over and some really smart people at some really well paid universities can do some more detailed research. 

We also have to account for how many deaths are "Corona Related." Suicides are likely up due to increased isolation. In some states that closed clinics not directly involved in the fight against corona, some patients couldn't find health care for routine check-ups/procedures, likely leading to delayed heart disease or cancer diagnosis (#1 and 2 killer in US). You also likely have a Nationwide vitamin D deficiency as people spent more time indoors, suppressing immunity defense against more benign sickness. Little things that add up though. 

[brabus]

8 hours ago, brawnie said:

You keep repeating that the death numbers are skewed with nothing to back it up. What do you think has caused the >200k excess deaths in the US since Mar 2020?

 Nothing to back the skewed claim up?

1. My uncle died from multiple problems, but the doc SUSPECTED Covid (never did a test)...death labeled as COVID. He died from several things and was going to die regardless of covid, but without even a test,COVID was labeled the cause. Total bullshit.

2. Several family friends work in hospital admin; they handle the money and see how it flows. They said the above situation happens more than you think because the hospital receives extra money from the govt for covid patients in their care. Docs are pressured to declare Covid in some cases. That’s not a conspiracy theory, that’s real people working in the money side of the hospital who deal with it directly. 

So, there’s some excellent support for the fact that this shit is happening. Now, I’m clearly not arguing all covid deaths are invalid, not even close. But, when you subtract off 20% (made up number for illustrative purpose), then increase the total number of positives to account for the untested, it rapidly becomes a significantly different problem than what has been sold by the media (which millions of Americans have bought hook, line, and sinker).

Also, what FLEA said above.

[jrizzell]

You keep repeating that the death numbers are skewed with nothing to back it up. What do you think has caused the >200k excess deaths in the US since Mar 2020?

My brother works at the VA in claims department. He was telling he that one day he had three deaths that were initially “respiratory illness” be changed to COVID. He asked how was that determination made, the bodies were cremated, did they do other testing? Answer was, label it COVID.

[Negatory]

It’s literally a conspiracy theory. Choosing not to trust multiple different independent methods of calculating deaths due to Covid - which all correlate - because you don’t want to/have second hand information that can’t be uniformly applied to a large statistical model isn’t smart - it’s akin to antivaxxer logic. If you feel so strongly that this is just a current misunderstanding that will be disproven, I’ll put down $5000 dollars right now (through an intermediary of your choice) that the 95% confidence interval for death numbers from Mar-August 2020 will contain 200k. We can even wait until 2023 and aggrandize all the studies, to “let the truth come out.” I highly doubt any of you are interested.

This isn’t just one model, it’s numerous studies. Here’s the dumbed down summary of how they work.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sciencealert.com/2020-has-killed-up-to-200-000-extra-people-in-the-us-so-far/amp

They use regressions, this accounts for the increasing number of deaths from year to year. From this, in July, multiple different studies showed at least 160-200k+ deaths over normal. You don’t think this correlates closely to what the CDC was tracking? YGBSM.

And, in reality, for decision making it literally shouldn’t matter how people died when it comes to effects. Suicide, accident that wasn’t treated because of hospital availability, pneumonia at home, economic despair - they all are because of COVID and the second order effects of a global pandemic. Someone that died because they couldn’t get a CT scan because hospitals were full just as much died from the social effects of this disease. But, yes, let’s keep arguing semantics.

In total, you guys have named sub-20 cases of this “fraud” happening. But this mindset has entirely skewed your perception of the situation and changed how America reacts and works together It’s literally exactly how you’re being brainwashed to believe that voting by mail will be entirely illegitimate when there are less than 100 cases of fraud in any election in recent history.

[FLEA]

So to be clear, I don't believe in conspiracy theories. 

 

I do though, heavily, heavily, believe in incompetence, because I've worked staff long enough to know the people informing the President are only at best 70% confident in the information they present him, and more often than not, they are only 50% confident. That's a complete guess, but I say that having been a contributor to 4 white papers that made the CJCS desk that he undoubtedly briefed at least one of them to POTUS at one point. I was only about 40% confident on that one, and another that I'm aware he briefed to Congress. I was only about 40% confident on my conclusions on those, but I had about 2 days to collect a massive ammount of data that we had not been historically tracking and most of it had to be estimated. Luckily these papers go through multiple levels of review and are heavily caveated but garbage in garbage out right? The executive decision cycle is usually heavily time sensitive and when you look at the decision matrix from gut feel to analysis paralysis we are often working very heavy on the gut feel side. 

Hence, data is interesting, but when you jump to draw conclusions from it, you are more often than not setting yourself up for failure. 

Edited August 30, 2020 by FLEA

[FlyingWolf]

44 minutes ago, brawnie said:

It’s literally a conspiracy theory...

 

...And, in reality, for decision making it literally shouldn’t matter how people died when it comes to effects...

Not really, I recommend you read up on the concept of Systems Thinking...

 

...Could not be more wrong; how people died/are harmed, whether directly from the disease or our reaction to it, makes all the difference when it comes to decision making and the effects of the disease.

[Negatory]

Okay, how about it's just a unproven theory that the government as a whole (or is it just the liberal portions, i'm not hip and read in) is conspiring to present skewed results? Does that work?

Explain how in systems thinking - which asserts that one can't look at individual things like coronavirus specific death tolls and instead should look at the combination of effects in the whole system - discounts anything I said previously. I am not following your logic. COVID proves that isolation thinking - i.e. personal liberty over all else - is ineffective.

https://www.thinknpc.org/blog/covid-19-means-systems-thinking-is-no-longer-optional/

[FlyingWolf]

30 minutes ago, brawnie said:

Okay, how about it's just a unproven theory that the government as a whole (or is it just the liberal portions, i'm not hip and read in) is conspiring to present skewed results? Does that work?

Explain how in systems thinking - which asserts that one can't look at individual things like coronavirus specific death tolls and instead should look at the combination of effects in the whole system - discounts anything I said previously. I am not following your logic. COVID proves that isolation thinking - i.e. personal liberty over all else - is ineffective.

https://www.thinknpc.org/blog/covid-19-means-systems-thinking-is-no-longer-optional/

Unproven theory that large-scale, statistically signifcant, imprecise characterisations occur, yes. No conspiracy required.

Systems do not require conscious coordination with ill intent to deliver poor results. They are often way more complicated than our monkey brains give them credit for. Unintended consequences and all.

Sure, I acknowledge that pandemics are a particularly difficult situation for societies that value liberty. Which is a good point to emphasize, and often a root issue in disagreements: how highly do each of us value liberty vs security?

[waveshaper]

Here's a snapshot on how Michigan is tabulating the states total monthly deaths by select medical/health related causes. This chart also includes all COVID classified deaths since March 2020. I'm not sure how the other 49 states collect and publish this type data but for simple minded folks like me it's easy to see that COVID is probably the main reason there's been a spike in the Michigan death count since March 2020.

"Number of Deaths by Select Causes of Death by Month, Michigan Occurences": https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/osr/Provisional/MontlyDxCounts.asp

Year of Death	Month of Death	Number of Deaths
		Total	Cancer	Heart Disease	COPD	Stroke	Pneumonia & Flu	Septicemia	COVID-19
2019	January	8,490	798	2,274	486	443	176	107	–
2019	February	7,712	665	2,064	452	386	144	93	–
2019	March	8,582	777	2,230	522	479	197	88	–
2019	April	7,987	719	1,984	510	422	203	117	–
2019	May	8,164	795	2,090	486	422	140	78	–
2019	June	7,711	729	1,971	468	374	116	90	–
2019	July	7,994	836	2,002	456	413	109	93	–
2019	August	7,811	797	1,948	431	403	89	93	–
2019	September	7,734	770	1,884	444	406	109	87	–
2019	October	8,292	862	2,112	472	446	100	86	–
2019	November	8,395	729	2,196	462	424	122	106	–
2019	December	8,777	861	2,394	512	474	136	96	–
2020	January	8,932	857	2,224	607	512	181	116	–
2020	February	8,227	708	2,148	497	478	229	111	–
2020	March	9,635	807	2,386	578	495	300	126	461
2020	April	13,031	753	2,535	544	505	254	125	3,197
2020	May	9,284	750	2,024	404	473	132	87	1,152
2020	June	8,163	773	1,883	381	429	90	89	249
2020	July	8,221	757	1,876	410	400	70	110	132
2020	August	2,472	86	243	62	67	9	11	42

[busdriver]

Every single data set surrounding COVID has garbage in it.  I would bet large sums of money that the death count is the least noisy.

That said, it's not a super useful piece of info unless you do something with it.  Unless of course your entire goal is to scream about the really really big number and peddle fear for advertising dollars and political gain.

Here's the part that a lot of people don't seem to grasp: it doesn't have to be super deadly to kill a shit load of people, it just has to infect a lot.  If the regular old flu infected 50% of the population, that's over 220K dead in the US.

[brabus]

Direct from CDC website: “For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.”

94% of COVID deaths in our country are with underlying health conditions. So when we say 180k died from Covid, what they should really say is 10.8k have died from COVID, and 169.2k died from a combo (combo because the avg is 2.6 additional factors) of pneumonia/flu, heart disease, hypertensive disease, etc. and covid was a possible CF to some extent (but not a RC/sole cause). the hype about how it’s “deadly” to healthy people, etc. and we had to destroy our economies, way of life, harm our children, etc. because of it is gross negligence. 
 

There are sensible ways to reduce risk and address problems, and then there is lose your shit and emotionally freak out, then hide under a rock until the bogey man goes away. The media and others have pushed millions of willing Americans into the latter group. This whole thing is like a FLUG-ee with an 8 ship aborting and calling mission canx because there’s a single flanker 100nm away.

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by brabus

[Negatory]

38 minutes ago, brabus said:

There are sensible ways to reduce risk and address problems

What would you recommend?

[Sim]

[SocialD]

I'd recommend we get back to a daily lives.  Wear our masks, wash our hands and keep on, keeping on.  If you have 2 or more the "comorbid" conditions then you probably need to be more cautious and stay home.  That doesn't mean we all stay home and be scared of our own shadows.  Despite wearing my mask/washing my hands, as well as everyone around me doing he same thanks to the current rules in place, I currently have the rona.  A few days of mild body aches and a mild fever and I'm back to normal, the same for my 2 other squadron mates who currently have it.  No matter what you do we'll likely all end up with it sooner or later.  Let's stop driving our economy into the ground over this thing and get the train back on the tracks.  If someone loses their job, their home or their marriage and commits suicide, do they get counted in the covid deaths?  

Edited August 31, 2020 by SocialD

[Negatory]

They get counted in excess deaths, which is why I think it’s probably a better metric when it comes to total impact.

And if the disease still got to you with restrictions (probably via asymptomatic transmission), how can we reasonably ask for those at risk to avoid infection? They still have to get food, go to the doctor, fix their homes, interact with those that care for them. Unfortunately, there is no such thing anymore as a self-sufficient man; everyone is very interconnected.

[SocialD]

31 minutes ago, brawnie said:

They get counted in excess deaths, which is why I think it’s probably a better metric when it comes to total impact.

And if the disease still got to you with restrictions (probably via asymptomatic transmission), how can we reasonably ask for those at risk to avoid infection? They still have to get food, go to the doctor, fix their homes, interact with those that care for them. Unfortunately, there is no such thing anymore as a self-sufficient man; everyone is very interconnected.

 

Well we unfortunately got it while TDY to a known rona hotspot, because we're "essential," due to an upcoming deployment.  Truth is, we actually likely got it from a fellow squadron mate that thought what he was feeling was so mild that he didn't think it was actually rona.  But I digress....  So how long do we keep this up?  One month?  One year?  One decade?  What if we don't get a vaccine, we just do this for the rest of our existence?  How about we do what some of our local places are doing...providing shopping/office hours (or days) for those at a heightened risk.  Point is, a vast majority of us will be just fine and can continue to keep things going.  This isn't the military, you don't punished everyone just because one person shits their pants.

 

Funny you bring up being self sufficient.  Thanks to all this shit, the main (big name chain) grocery store in my home county just shut down.  I'm from the sticks and this was pretty much the sole source of groceries for the entire county.  It was the only place in the county that had the option for "click list" level of shopping...meaning they could order online, pull up, people load groceries in their trunk and leave.  Now they'll all have to either get their groceries from the super expensive "corner store," or drive 30 miles out of the county to next best option.  Great so now, not only does the next town over have it's locals shopping their, they'll have a whole other counties worth of people going there...social distancing shouldn't be a problem at all...  

Edited August 31, 2020 by SocialD

[GrndPndr]

2 hours ago, SocialD said:

<Snip>Wear our masks, wash our hands and keep on, keeping on.  If you have 2 or more the "comorbid" conditions then you probably need to be more cautious and stay home. <Snip>  If someone loses their job, their home or their marriage and commits suicide, do they get counted in the covid deaths?  

Was this sarcasm?  Sure seemed like it.

For your last question - the answer is yes.

[Prozac]

3 hours ago, SocialD said:

 

Well we unfortunately got it while TDY to a known rona hotspot, because we're "essential," due to an upcoming deployment.  Truth is, we actually likely got it from a fellow squadron mate that thought what he was feeling was so mild that he didn't think it was actually rona.  But I digress....  So how long do we keep this up?  One month?  One year?  One decade?  What if we don't get a vaccine, we just do this for the rest of our existence?  How about we do what some of our local places are doing...providing shopping/office hours (or days) for those at a heightened risk.  Point is, a vast majority of us will be just fine and can continue to keep things going.  This isn't the military, you don't punished everyone just because one person shits their pants.

 

Funny you bring up being self sufficient.  Thanks to all this shit, the main (big name chain) grocery store in my home county just shut down.  I'm from the sticks and this was pretty much the sole source of groceries for the entire county.  It was the only place in the county that had the option for "click list" level of shopping...meaning they could order online, pull up, people load groceries in their trunk and leave.  Now they'll all have to either get their groceries from the super expensive "corner store," or drive 30 miles out of the county to next best option.  Great so now, not only does the next town over have it's locals shopping their, they'll have a whole other counties worth of people going there...social distancing shouldn't be a problem at all...  

Dude, I totally understand where you’re coming from and I agree with what you’re saying...to a point. We cannot move forward with a shuttered economy and our kids out of school indefinitely. But the argument that the fatalities were already walking dead is problematic. This country has seen somewhere around 200k excess deaths so far this year. Yes, the vast majority of them had underlying conditions, but it was COVID that pushed them over the edge. These people would not have died had it not been to the virus. So we introduce a serious ethical dilemma when we argue that this virus should be allowed to “cull the heard”. The vulnerable are still human beings and as a society we make a big deal about the value of all human life. We don’t throw our weak and sick to the wolves. We protect them. ~60k Americans died in Vietnam and it tore the country apart. A couple thousand died on September 11 and it had a major impact on our economy and drug us into two wars. But we are going to pretend that a threat that has the potential to kill more Americans than WWII doesn’t exist? No. We need to take all reasonable precautions to protect vulnerable Americans. That doesn’t mean we shut down completely but it probably means you don’t get to go to a football game this year. For the areas of the economy most affected, we should be spending whatever necessary to ensure they are still around when we get through this thing. For individuals unable to make ends meet through no fault of their own, again we should spend whatever required to help. The debt incurred will be far outweighed by long term economic damage if we do not. I believe national government (both parties) is currently failing on all accounts. 

[brickhistory]

Didn't know until today that the riots occurring in proximity to BLM protests are being conducted by white supremists.

I am told that by many sources in the media and by many representatives of one major political party.

I am glad they are so informative.

[SocialD]

47 minutes ago, Prozac said:

But the argument that the fatalities were already walking dead is problematic. Yes, the vast majority of them had underlying conditions, but it was COVID that pushed them over the edge. These people would not have died had it not been to the virus. So we introduce a serious ethical dilemma when we argue that this virus should be allowed to “cull the heard”. The vulnerable are still human beings and as a society we make a big deal about the value of all human life. We don’t throw our weak and sick to the wolves. We protect them.

 

I'm not saying they're walking dead, I'm simply saying we can protect them and not completely destroy our economy.  According to the CDC, 61% of all covid "related" deaths come from 7% of the population.  If we drill down further and look at those with multiple comorbid conditions, the percentage of the population with an elevated risk get smaller.  Take out the numbers of people killed needlessly (because we didn't know better at the time) BECAUSE they were put on vents and the number gets even smaller.  Throw out the deaths caused by leadership senselessly forcing retirement homes to take covid patients and that number continues to plummet.  Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but we have learned a lot!  I'm not saying we cast them off, but we sure as hell can develop a better plan to move forward and mitigate the threat.  

 

Quote

~60k Americans died in Vietnam and it tore the country apart. A couple thousand died on September 11 and it had a major impact on our economy and drug us into two wars. But we are going to pretend that a threat that has the potential to kill more Americans than WWII doesn’t exist? No. We need to take all reasonable precautions to protect vulnerable Americans. That doesn’t mean we shut down completely but it probably means you don’t get to go to a football game this year.  For the areas of the economy most affected, we should be spending whatever necessary to ensure they are still around when we get through this thing. For individuals unable to make ends meet through no fault of their own, again we should spend whatever required to help. The debt incurred will be far outweighed by long term economic damage if we do not.

 

Ok so I'll ask again, what if we don't have a cure by this time next year?  5 years from now?  10 years from now?  How long do we sustain this footing?  When do we say enough is enough?   Eventually we'll even run out of ink to keep printing money.  Hyperinflation sucks and will cause lots of death too! 

 

 

Quote

I believe national government (both parties) is currently failing on all accounts. 

 

I couldn't agree more, though I place a lot of fault at the feet of MSM as well.  Currently, I believe they're the single biggest downfall and threat to our country, but that's a whole other discussion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DosXX]

36 minutes ago, SocialD said:

 

 Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but we have learned a lot!  

 

Indeed, and those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. A higher second peak in the fall that exceeds our hospital capacity will kill at a much higher rate than now where we have kept them under capacity.

 

36 minutes ago, SocialD said:

Ok so I'll ask again, what if we don't have a cure by this time next year?  5 years from now?  10 years from now?  How long do we sustain this footing?  When do we say enough is enough?   Eventually we'll even run out of ink to keep printing money.  Hyperinflation sucks and will cause lots of death too!

The overwhelming consensus is that the vaccine will be available by Q2 of next year so this is a non issue we thankfully do not need to consider.

But since you asked, in the extreme hypothetical where was no end in sight for 5+ years, we should then find the policy limit at a local level that keeps hospitals right near their ICU capacity and keep it there until herd immunity is reached; then invest in hospital infrastructure/resources and continue to ease restrictions at the limit to accelerate herd immunity.