The WOKE Thread (Merged from WTF?)

[jazzdude]

We already know what it takes to make good (fighter) pilots: cognitive ability, emotional stability, and motivation to succeed (https://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu:180418/datastream/PDF/view). But leave it to the USAF to never read the studies they commission from RAND.

When I first started in the flying world, I personally over-emphasized being technically smart - after having done it for almost 20 years, I'm convinced physical/athletic talent is an important component as well. Not to the point of being a division one athlete, but you should be above-average smart with the general ability to play most sports.
As far as the PPL influencing the PCSM goes, I do think it matters since it's both a proxy to measure how motivated someone is, as well as a measurement of their ability to fly - there is at least some correlation between someone having a higher propensity to succeed in UPT who has a PPL vs someone chosen randomly from the population. I know the AF knows this, but the current effort is motivated by a desire to "uncuff" themselves from perceived restrictive selection criteria so they can implement whatever X-action program they want in order to have the right shade of skin flying their airplanes - not because current selection programs aren't actually working. Seems like fraud, waste, and abuse to me, but what the hell do I know?
Besides the above, I'm already certain it won't work for one simple reason: the balance of male/female cadets at USAFA (~7:1 while I was there) is not mirrored in the fighter pilot community (or the pilot community at large). These people are of equal talents, with equal access to UPT, with equal ability to fly, yet the balance becomes lopsided immediately after graduation. There are other factors at work that "select" for pilots - PPL at USAFA didn't make a difference, and it won't make a difference elsewhere.
Personally, I believe that great nations will inherently be diverse - talent has no color or sex - great nations know this. I don't think that logic works in reverse, though I suppose we'll see.

Yup front, I'll say I generally agree with you. But...

Interesting paper, but there are limitations, and you're drawing a causal link when the paper does not show a causal link.

Boyd et al. emphasizes that the
fighter pilots as a group are a more homogeneous group than the airlift/tanker group or the bomber
group; however, the overlap in the range of scores indicates there are more similarities among the groups than differences.
...
The data is more descriptive in nature and does not suggest any causal relationships. The findings may suggest that a person with a particular personality type or cognitive ability level is more or less common within the fighter pilot community, but does not evaluate the predictive ability of the data presented.
...
While not predictive of success in pilot training, the results from this study may prove to be essential to psychologists working in aeromedical evaluation of USAF fighter pilots.
...
Overall, USAF applicants and rated pilots in general have higher IQs than the general population. The best single predictor for success in SUPT is general mental ability.
[/Quote]

PPL possibly shows motivation, but only for someone who doesn't have access to resources and has to hustle to earn that PPL. But those people are indistinguishable from the rich kid who had their parents pay for his PPL and didn't have to have significant drive to complete it. So it becomes a noisy indicator for motivation. Though PPL also doesn't influence PCSM, just the flight hours, so the rich kid could literally fly 200 hours dual to boost their score significantly.

But you're also right that measuring motivation *is* important. Figure out how to do it and you'll earn your PhD.

You do bring up an interesting point regarding gender at the academy vs pilots. Is there a perception problem that keeps some women from applying? Or is it the 10 year UPT commitment (really at a minimum 11.5 year commitment after commissioning) that turns otherwise great candidates away? Or something else? I think the AF is starting to actually explore how it selected pilots (well, except for the UPT commitment, which seems to be going the other way...), versus doing things the way they have been in the past just because it's the way we've always done things and it's turned out fine.

Remember that the data we have represents the makeup of pilots we had back when the data was collected, when the pilot population may not have been as diverse for any number of reasons. So I chalk a lot of this stuff up to the AF challenging is assumptions in what makes a good pilot. Is it spurred by the political climate right now? Absolutely. But does that mean it's not worth relooking at our assumptions and reassessing our process to make sure we are getting the best in our pilot candidates? I think so. Plus, the AF never solves a problem unless it's forced to, and right now, like it or not, the AF is being forced to look at it's pilot selection process.

[ViperMan]

@jazzdude I think I get the gist of your post, but it got a bit garbled with one of your quotes. In any case, here goes.

Yes, the standard correlation/causation refrain. It may not be proven that those qualities lead directly to being a good pilot, but it is well-established that smarts is associated with general well-being in life - not causal - but associated. In any case, I think someone would be hard-pressed to argue the opposite: that being unmotivated, stupid, and emotionally unstable would make good pilot candidates. No one would seriously make that argument, so it's more of a necessary, but maybe not sufficient type of argument.

Regarding PPLs specifically, regardless of rich Johnny or poor Johnny, having a PPL (all else equal) shows motivation. It's a hurdle that has to be overcome regardless of "access to resources" and hence is a valid indicator. The issue the general is attempting to address is how can we not exclude people who didn't get a PPL, since it does tend to be expensive. Let's not call a valid indicator invalid, though, because we want to include something else - let's find that other thing that we might not be looking at that is also a valid indicator of success and add it to our ranking system.

What I think though, and what it looks like, is that they (TPTB) are tweaking something objective (however imperfect) to make room for something subjective - which is worrisome because it portends capricious decision-making under the guise of achieving some sort of artificial balance. Notice that the general didn't suggest what it was that we're missing - only that something needed to be removed because...why, exactly? Right...

I like an Air Force that takes the best of society. It is my preference that society's problems are solved by society, from which a great Air Force can be built; it's troublesome anytime we start meddling with "nature" and attempt to impose our vision of what perfection is supposed to look like. Let's answer this question first: what talent do we think is out there that we are missing? Let's identify that first, before we start tweaking something so critical to the USA's well-being (Air power).

My intention bringing up the gender differential observed between USAFA cadets and USAF pilots is to highlight the lowest hanging fruit I can think of to illustrate the fact that there are differences that arise between these populations that is the following:

1. Not understood
2. Has no reason for not being understood
3. Is there anyway

We can't answer this question satisfactorily (with a population that is as close to being fighter pilots as one can get), yet we're hoping to look for talent in other far-flung corners of the world while simultaneously being unable to achieve balance with our women USAFA cadets? Please. How 'bout we clean up our own backyard first. Women have been at the zoo since 1976 - that's nearly 50 years. Why aren't 1/8 of fighter pilots women? It's because fighter pilots are not a random sample - which gets to the most basic point underlying all of this - TPTB have determined that the make up of all institutions within society (at least the prestigious ones) need to perfectly reflect the make up of the broader society writ large. That's it. It's that simple. Any time there is divergence between a population and a sub-population it requires a fix from on high. But all these populations are not random samples - there is a great deal of self-selection occurring. Buckle up.

[ClearedHot]

9 hours ago, uhhello said:

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/diversity-chief-for-special-operations-command-under-investigation-for-social-media-posts-1.667753?fbclid=IwAR2sQADxEzc1nj6MQwB9Cg30glKNzIn2WKt8rilpu8WZa9iEvZlXtgzq69w

 

You'll never be woke enough

Unreal they didn't catch this sooner!  He also wants to cancel the Goldilocks and three bears story because "she broke into their house"

[jazzdude]

Yes, the standard correlation/causation refrain. It may not be proven that those qualities lead directly to being a good pilot, but it is well-established that smarts is associated with general well-being in life - not causal - but associated. In any case, I think someone would be hard-pressed to argue the opposite: that being unmotivated, stupid, and emotionally unstable would make good pilot candidates.

You're right in those three points, I'm not arguing the top level characteristics, and my post came off that way. The paper looked at how to measure the those characteristics. Cognitive ability was easy to measure and quantify objectively. Motivation and emotional stability were harder to measure and quantify objectively. Sure, there are traits that likely are likely important (how you handle stress and anxiety, being goal seeking/achievement driven), but outside of that, it gets fuzzy, and that's the point I was trying to make.

The paper also points out another issue: what is the definition of successful? Is it completing UPT? Is it being promoted to O-6 and beyond? Is it some tactical measure? Selection criteria) emphasis could change as you shift focus between different goals, even though the AF needs all 3 goals met for different reasons.

Regarding PPLs specifically, regardless of rich Johnny or poor Johnny, having a PPL (all else equal) shows motivation. It's a hurdle that has to be overcome regardless of "access to resources" and hence is a valid indicator.

I'll still argue that PPL doesn't (directly) matter, mainly because the flying time is still captured in the PCSM (which does predict performance in UPT). I'd be for PPL weighing into PCSM as a negative factor: have 80+ hours but no PPL? Maybe your flight hours should weigh less in your PCSM score since you're taking more time than average to obtain the PPL.

Also, should a PPL weigh more than a sport pilot license or recreational pilot license? Should more weight be given to instrument rating, or commercial pilot/ATP?

I guess what I'm getting at is that the PPL shouldn't just be a box check to show motivation. Otherwise, it's like having a box for the major promotion board for a master's degree: completing an AAD shows motivation, drive, and commitment, as well as increased knowledge, but is costly in terms of money and time. Having a masters degree *is* valuable to AF, but with the pace of deployments in the post 9/11 world, and doing more with less as we took cuts to personnel, the AF couldn't afford to keep the master's "requirement" at the O-4/O-5 level without impacting retention, so it got masked until the O-6 board (which shows that it's still valued). Not to mention the cottage industry that popped up happy to take government tuition assistance money to provide a not very meaningful check the box degree, undercutting why a master's was valuable in the first place.

How 'bout we clean up our own backyard first. Women have been at the zoo since 1976 - that's nearly 50 years. Why aren't 1/8 of fighter pilots women? It's because fighter pilots are not a random sample

There were outside forces restricting women from competing, regardless of their ability.
- By AF policy, females were not allowed to fly combat aircraft until 1993
- Women tend to be smaller than men, and many women just don't meet anthro standards (have to be above average in height/sitting height/reach/etc)
-- Medical waivers, including anthro waivers, used to be less much less prevalent
-- Most fighter aircraft were designed to fit the AF pilot population in the 60s (F-15, F-16) through 80s (F-22). Which again, was only male during that time period
-- The AF did not mandate requirements for anthro considerations in aircraft design accommodate women until 2020 (and to use more than just the historical population of AF female pilots, who again, were above average in height compared to the general population of women in the US).

So like men, women had to be above average not only in mental and cognitive abilities to compete to be a pilot. However, women also had to be above average in physical size as compared to other women because airplanes were designed to accommodate men due to legacy policies, which significantly shrinks the pool of women eligible to compete in the first place.

which gets to the most basic point underlying all of this - TPTB have determined that the make up of all institutions within society (at least the prestigious ones) need to perfectly reflect the make up of the broader society writ large. That's it. It's that simple. Any time there is divergence between a population and a sub-population it requires a fix from on high. But all these populations are not random samples - there is a great deal of self-selection occurring. Buckle up.

Here you and I agree. Don't think subpopulations (like pilots, or a subset of pilots like fighter pilots) have to match the greater US population distribution. But I do believe we should remove any barriers to entry that don't contribute to combat effectiveness.

Some of the issues go beyond the AF's scope, like K-12 education. That being said, the better education (particularly STEM, but I think physical education/fitness is also important and has fallen off to the wayside) that is provided across the board (rich/poor, majority/minority) increases the pool of people to select from for officer candidates, which increases the pool for pilot candidates. But that's a discussion for another day in another thread.

One other topic that might be interesting to look at is how personalities/attributes in different jets changed when we moved to an track select system, where fighter/bomber studs were identified much earlier in UPT than in a single track system.

[billy pilgrim]

Maybe when it comes to combat capability we as a country can just not look at sex or ethnicity (whatever the hell that means these days) and try a meritocracy.  Which would mean just eliminating both from any application.

 

You're not doing anyone any favors if someone gets into a position they shouldn't be in due to race or sex.

[kaputt]

1 hour ago, billy pilgrim said:

Maybe when it comes to combat capability we as a country can just not look at sex or ethnicity (whatever the hell that means these days) and try a meritocracy.  Which would mean just eliminating both from any application.

You mean Martin Luther King’s actual dream? 

It honestly an embarrassment to his legacy where we are as a country right now with this whole social justice quest.  

 

[SurelySerious]

White Supremacy is the Root of All Race-related Violence in the US

Quote

White supremacy is an ideology, a pattern of values and beliefs that are ingrained in nearly every system and institution in the U.S. It is a belief that to be white is to be human and invested with inalienable universal rights and that to be not-white means you are less than human – a disposable object for others to abuse and misuse.

Excellent, glad the science is settled on that.

Edited April 8, 2021 by SurelySerious

[kaputt]

4 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

White Supremacy is the Root of All Race-related Violence in the US

Excellent, glad the science is settled on that.

 

[Lord Ratner]

5 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

White Supremacy is the Root of All Race-related Violence in the US

Excellent, glad the science is settled on that.

You missed this gem:

 

"The point I’ve made through all of those experiences is that anti-Asian racism has the same source as anti-Black racism: white supremacy. So when a Black person attacks an Asian person, the encounter is fueled perhaps by racism, but very specifically by white supremacy. White supremacy does not require a white person to perpetuate it."

[SurelySerious]

You missed this gem:
 
"The point I’ve made through all of those experiences is that anti-Asian racism has the same source as anti-Black racism: white supremacy. So when a Black person attacks an Asian person, the encounter is fueled perhaps by racism, but very specifically by white supremacy. White supremacy does not require a white person to perpetuate it."

That was also phenomenal.

[TreeA10]

12 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

You missed this gem:

 

"The point I’ve made through all of those experiences is that anti-Asian racism has the same source as anti-Black racism: white supremacy. So when a Black person attacks an Asian person, the encounter is fueled perhaps by racism, but very specifically by white supremacy. White supremacy does not require a white person to perpetuate it."

I think I slipped a mental disk or pulled a synapse trying to contort rationality to follow that twisted logic.  Unfortunately, there are too many people looking like, with the lack of critical gray matter to match,  bobble head dolls nodding in smiling agreement. 

[dream big]

On 3/30/2021 at 2:13 PM, ClearedHot said:

Unreal they didn't catch this sooner!  He also wants to cancel the Goldilocks and three bears story because "she broke into their house"

These “diversity chiefs” and MEO types are the worst kind of people.  They are an infection to the military. I am sure the PRC has diversity chiefs in its’ higher echelons...It’s going to get worse before it ever gets better - that or we will go the way of the Romans. 

[Lecarpetron Dukemarriot]

On 4/8/2021 at 10:57 PM, Lord Ratner said:

You missed this gem:

 

"The point I’ve made through all of those experiences is that anti-Asian racism has the same source as anti-Black racism: white supremacy. So when a Black person attacks an Asian person, the encounter is fueled perhaps by racism, but very specifically by white supremacy. White supremacy does not require a white person to perpetuate it."

Honorable mention to the capitalization used for black and asian vs white.

[VMFA187]

On 4/8/2021 at 2:25 PM, SurelySerious said:

White Supremacy is the Root of All Race-related Violence in the US

Excellent, glad the science is settled on that.

 

“There is racism physically built into some of our highways."

Pete Buttigieg says there is ‘racism physically built into’ America’s ailing infrastructure system (yahoo.com)

 

[herkbum]

This is getting ridiculous


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[HeloDude]

32 minutes ago, herkbum said:

This is getting ridiculous


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

“getting”?  It’s been ridiculous for quite a while...it’s just more and more people are finally seeing it.  That being said, I’m actually looking forward to seeing how much more ridiculous it can get.  And I think we have a ways to go.

[VMFA187]

40 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

“getting”?  It’s been ridiculous for quite a while...it’s just more and more people are finally seeing it.  That being said, I’m actually looking forward to seeing how much more ridiculous it can get.  And I think we have a ways to go.

CDC Director: 'Racism Is a Serious Public Health Threat' (yahoo.com)

 

“What we know is this: racism is a serious public health threat that directly affects the well-being of millions of Americans. As a result, it affects the health of our entire nation. Racism is not just the discrimination against one group based on the color of their skin or their race or ethnicity, but the structural barriers that impact racial and ethnic groups differently to influence where a person lives, where they work, where their children play, and where they worship and gather in community."

Is my thought that people should be responsible for their own well-being considered a "disease" by the CDC now? Maybe we should get the airlines and MLB to weigh in...

[pawnman]

2 hours ago, VMFA187 said:

CDC Director: 'Racism Is a Serious Public Health Threat' (yahoo.com)

 

“What we know is this: racism is a serious public health threat that directly affects the well-being of millions of Americans. As a result, it affects the health of our entire nation. Racism is not just the discrimination against one group based on the color of their skin or their race or ethnicity, but the structural barriers that impact racial and ethnic groups differently to influence where a person lives, where they work, where their children play, and where they worship and gather in community."

Is my thought that people should be responsible for their own well-being considered a "disease" by the CDC now? Maybe we should get the airlines and MLB to weigh in...

Can we prevent the spread by wearing masks?

[lloyd christmas]

6 hours ago, herkbum said:

This is getting ridiculous


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And it’s all owned by the left/dems.  F’ing crazy.  

[Pooter]

Got a diversity and inclusion survey in my inbox today.  Can't wait to tell the Air Force all about how difficult and unfair it is for women and minorities out there.. Oh wait, it seems I can't submit the survey because our computer networks are absolute hot garbage and it keeps crashing.

 

#priorities

[08Dawg]

On 4/11/2021 at 12:58 AM, dream big said:

These “diversity chiefs” and MEO types are the worst kind of people.  They are an infection to the military. I am sure the PRC has diversity chiefs in its’ higher echelons...It’s going to get worse before it ever gets better - that or we will go the way of the Romans. 

Yeah....they’re called political officers

[lloyd christmas]

Policing has been discussed in this thread before so I’ll drop this here.  

Sounds like the female officer involved in yesterday’s shooting of Daunte Wright thought she was firing her taser but fired her weapon instead.  It is another incident involving someone with a warrant resisting arrest.  But it’s still a very tragic incident for sure.  This happened just a few miles from where George Floyd was killed.  This couldn’t have happened in a worse place.  It’s going to be an interesting night in Minnesota.

It has also been interesting to hear some of the defense’s arguments in the Floyd case.  There’s a camera angle that shows Chauvins knee on Floyd’s shoulder and admissions from Drs that describe how fentanyl/meth can cause asphyxiation.   Floyd was complaining about not being able to breathe before he was on the ground.  Reasonable doubt is the standard.  I don’t say this in support of Chauvin, I’m saying I’m not sure he is going to get a fair trial especially with what’s happened with the shooting yesterday.  That city can’t afford for Chauvin to walk.  Knowingly convicting potentially innocent people due to fear of a mob certainly isn’t the answer either.

[Guardian]

Seems like the prosecution’s case is very weak.

[skybert]

30 minutes ago, Guardian said:

Seems like the prosecution’s case is very weak.

Like that matters

[Guardian]

Like that matters

True. Very true. And sad. I feel like there will be riots either way. Oh wait, that’s already happening.