Big Tech Oligarchs

[SurelySerious]

1 hour ago, brabus said:

Cough, nuclear power, cough…

No we need to shut it all down! 

[Biff_T]

1 hour ago, Lord Ratner said:

Except your tax credit is a subsidy. So, not you. 

I built my system on my own. And it cost more than just using grid power. I'm designing a much bigger system for a new house, and it too will cost more than just using the grid. However the batteries and inverters are the main reason for the system (power-outage protection with a much smaller generator needed), so I'd skip the panels entirely except you can get pallets of used panels from power companies for very, very low prices, which make the system economically viable. But the used-panel strategy is a market abnormality supported by government subsidies, so I don't count it.

Yeah I would do the same. I don't fault people for taking advantage of the system. When they defend it, however, is a different story. I don't think anyone on this forum thinks you care about anyone the poor, but CA allegedly does, and they are just discovering these policies are hurting them. 

Lol.  Ok dude.  The tax credit didn't cover the costs of my solar panels chap.  My money did.  I'm not even sure I applied the tax credit as it was several years ago.

It's awesome that you built your own system.  What state do you live in BTW?  Is it CA or somewhere else?  As much as people know about CA, I assume you all live here.  Lol

As for the poor,  I don't want them to suffer anymore than they already do.  CA/Power companies fucked them when it comes to paying for power.  Not me.  Why not just give the power to the poor people for free?   If that's what this is all about.  They can have my excess power.   I don't care.  I'll buy one less Costco sized bag of Honey Bunches of Oats a month to make up for my financial loss.

I agree, the current CA solar program does not benefit the poor.  It has always sucked to be poor.  If you're in CA, you can fight to get the poor solar panels too.  You can even use your intricate knowledge of solar panels to help build them.   

Edit: Except, this isn't about helping the poor.  It's about keeping the money flowing to the power companies.  They don't care about the poor either.

Looks like Kevin was doing OK.  

https://wallmine.com/people/32560/kevin-m-payne

Also his replacement  Steven

https://www1.salary.com/Steven-D-Powell-Salary-Bonus-Stock-Options-for-EDISON-INTERNATIONAL.html#:~:text=Executive Compensation&text=Of this total %24481%2C513 was,for the 2021 fiscal year.

 

Edited December 29, 2022 by Biff_T
Afterthought

[nsplayr]

@Lord Ratner either you’re right and every major government, energy company, and electrical utility are wrong for investing trillions into new solar and wind capability…or perhaps it’s the inverse. Hard to say 🤷‍♂️

[Lord Ratner]

2 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

@Lord Ratner either you’re right and every major government, energy company, and electrical utility are wrong for investing trillions into new solar and wind capability…or perhaps it’s the inverse. Hard to say 🤷‍♂️

Follow the money, brother. It's not a coincidence that so many previously sure-things are coming apart now that the central banks of the world are cutting their money-printing operations faster than in any time in history. 

You're going to see all sorts of things that governments, corporations, and investors invested dumped trillions into come apart. Bitcoin was the most cartoonish example. ESG will probably be the most costly. The meme stocks are certainly putting on a show (TSLA, AMC, PTON, CVNA, etc). Don't forget housing, which is rolling over faster than ever before.

Let's start with just the US: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

But I like figure 1 here: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/balsheetwk.pdf 

Makes it easier to just combine the major central banks. Even that doesn't include China. 

What do people do when they win the lottery? They spend stupid. Easy money leads to speculation. Governments, corporations, and investors are no different. We've seen it before, we're seeing it again. The economic reality is that wind and solar are only where they are because of the immense amount of government subsidizing and pressuring. 

I 100% support government funded research into alternative energy. But a technology that needs subsidies to implement (for decades) is a different story. Maybe one day solar panels will overcome the ~25% loss of efficiency at high-heat operation. Maybe they'll capture >50% of the solar energy. Maybe we can find a way to mount them above the clouds, who knows? But if/when that day comes there will be trillions in waste from the not-ready-for-prime-time panels we've been buying from our geopolitical enemy and paying people to install on their roofs. 

I suppose if you simply have no idea how solar panels work, you could take the cheaper-than-fossil fuels nonsense at face value. 

[Biff_T]

6 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

Follow the money, brother. It's not a coincidence that so many previously sure-things are coming apart now that the central banks of the world are cutting their money-printing operations faster than in any time in history. 

You're going to see all sorts of things that governments, corporations, and investors invested dumped trillions into come apart. Bitcoin was the most cartoonish example. ESG will probably be the most costly. The meme stocks are certainly putting on a show (TSLA, AMC, PTON, CVNA, etc). Don't forget housing, which is rolling over faster than ever before.

Let's start with just the US: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

But I like figure 1 here: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/balsheetwk.pdf 

Makes it easier to just combine the major central banks. Even that doesn't include China. 

What do people do when they win the lottery? They spend stupid. Easy money leads to speculation. Governments, corporations, and investors are no different. We've seen it before, we're seeing it again. The economic reality is that wind and solar are only where they are because of the immense amount of government subsidizing and pressuring. 

I 100% support government funded research into alternative energy. But a technology that needs subsidies to implement (for decades) is a different story. Maybe one day solar panels will overcome the ~25% loss of efficiency at high-heat operation. Maybe they'll capture >50% of the solar energy. Maybe we can find a way to mount them above the clouds, who knows? But if/when that day comes there will be trillions in waste from the not-ready-for-prime-time panels we've been buying from our geopolitical enemy and paying people to install on their roofs. 

I suppose if you simply have no idea how solar panels work, you could take the cheaper-than-fossil fuels nonsense at face value. 

 👍 

[filthy_liar]

I might've missed something at the beginning of the solar power conversation.  I'm not in CA, don't know anything about their regulations.  Solar power here is a thing.  I don't know of anyone who sells it back - they are configured to be completely off grid.  Most people I know that have installed solar are still plugged into the electrical coop, but they don't use it.  And its not required.  

Same with wells.  I pay my monthly $20 minimum payment to retain access to city water, but my well provides 100% of my water.  And I'm not required to retain access to city water.

[nsplayr]

Same in TN, although rooftop solar for homeowners  is still relatively rare because TVA power is really very cheap so the numbers don’t work for most folks. We don’t have net metering and there’s an obscure and not-really-worth-it TVA distributed producer program that I don’t plan on joining.

My solar just got installed but projected, conservative production numbers would have me totally off the grid other than we now drive 2x EVs that will consume quite a bit of electricity. My production and storage will be well above typical household loads (minus EV transportation) and my only power bill should be the $17 a month it costs to stay connected to the grid.

Even having zeroed out my transportation fuel budget with the EVs, my solar will produce about ~90% of my needs including lots of driving, which should be great.

Also no need to worry about blackouts, which we just experienced this week, or future electricity price increases.

Long-term costs will be about $335 a month to pay for the system, but like I said I also zeroed out my gasoline budget and about 80% of my electricity bill, so true net monthly costs to have this technology are even lower. Absolutely viable here and now and the tech is only getting better and cheaper in the long-run.

Edited December 30, 2022 by nsplayr

[uhhello]

Local utility here won't allow panels on roof AND be on the city grid.  We sell back enough that our total power bill the entire year is about $100 and that is only due to the monthly connection fee.  

[filthy_liar]

18 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Even having zeroed out my transportation fuel budget with the EVs, my solar will produce about ~90% of my needs including lots of driving, which should be great.

Also no need to worry about blackouts, which we just experienced this week, or future electricity price increases.

That's awesome, more folks should do that.  I'm under a coop in the TVA also.  They decided to inflict a blackout when it was 3 degrees outside.  Luckily I have a wood fireplace and a pretty aggressive emergency propane heater.  I woke up the morning of the blackout - my house hadn't started to get cold, but that was an eye opener.  I repositioned the propane heater so I could get to it faster next time because going out onto the deck to get firewood when you first wake up and its 3 degrees...sucks.

[Biff_T]

46 minutes ago, filthy_liar said:

That's awesome, more folks should do that.  I'm under a coop in the TVA also.  They decided to inflict a blackout when it was 3 degrees outside.  Luckily I have a wood fireplace and a pretty aggressive emergency propane heater.  I woke up the morning of the blackout - my house hadn't started to get cold, but that was an eye opener.  I repositioned the propane heater so I could get to it faster next time because going out onto the deck to get firewood when you first wake up and its 3 degrees...sucks.

That sucks!

[Sua Sponte]

On 12/29/2022 at 6:16 PM, nsplayr said:

Same in TN, although rooftop solar for homeowners  is still relatively rare because TVA power is really very cheap so the numbers don’t work for most folks. We don’t have net metering and there’s an obscure and not-really-worth-it TVA distributed producer program that I don’t plan on joining.

My solar just got installed but projected, conservative production numbers would have me totally off the grid other than we now drive 2x EVs that will consume quite a bit of electricity. My production and storage will be well above typical household loads (minus EV transportation) and my only power bill should be the $17 a month it costs to stay connected to the grid.

Even having zeroed out my transportation fuel budget with the EVs, my solar will produce about ~90% of my needs including lots of driving, which should be great.

Also no need to worry about blackouts, which we just experienced this week, or future electricity price increases.

Long-term costs will be about $335 a month to pay for the system, but like I said I also zeroed out my gasoline budget and about 80% of my electricity bill, so true net monthly costs to have this technology are even lower. Absolutely viable here and now and the tech is only getting better and cheaper in the long-run.

What kind of storage are you using?

[nsplayr]

38 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

What kind of storage are you using?

2x Tesla Powerwall 2s, so 27 kWh of storage. I would have gone with 3x powerwalls on a 10.2 kW solar system but they’re just so damn expensive. I have a decent ability to charge my EVs during daylight hours due to shift work, so ultimately I decided against it for now. Could easily add a third in the future and if the prices come down, tech gets even better or I really just have the need after seeing the system production numbers for a year +, I will.

Ideally in the near future also all EVs would be able to do straight up bi-directional charging. I’ve got another 142 kWh of “storage” between my two cars, it would be phenomenal to be able to feed that back into my powerwalls and therefore my house load panel during an extended outage situation where I might value electricity in my home more than driving.

The F-150 Lightning I think will be the first EV in America that can do this, although I’ve heard the setup is very expensive once it’s all said and done.

Edited December 31, 2022 by nsplayr

[Sua Sponte]

29 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

2x Tesla Powerwall 2s, so 27 kWh of storage. I would have gone with 3x powerwalls on a 10.2 kW solar system but they’re just so damn expensive. I have a decent ability to charge my EVs during daylight hours due to shift work, so ultimately I decided against it for now. Could easily add a third in the future and if the prices come down, tech gets even better or I really just have the need after seeing the system production numbers for a year +, I will.

Ideally in the near future also all EVs would be able to do straight up bi-directional charging. I’ve got another 142 kWh of “storage” between my two cars, it would be phenomenal to be able to feed that back into my powerwalls and therefore my house load panel during an extended outage situation where I might value electricity in my home more than driving.

The F-150 Lightning I think will be the first EV in America that can do this, although I’ve heard the setup is very expensive once it’s all said and done.

I currently live in an apartment, but have a ‘22 Model 3 Performance and I’d love to do a setup like that. Thankfully, I live in CO and power is moderately inexpensive compared to other parts of the country (my apartment has Level 2 Chargepoint chargers at $.11 per kW). 

[nsplayr]

5 hours ago, Sua Sponte said:

I currently live in an apartment, but have a ‘22 Model 3 Performance and I’d love to do a setup like that. Thankfully, I live in CO and power is moderately inexpensive compared to other parts of the country (my apartment has Level 2 Chargepoint chargers at $.11 per kW). 

That’s pretty sweet, esp because I’m assuming you didn’t have to pay to install the charger. I also have a chargepoint in my garage and pay $0.097 per kW from the grid which is super nice.

Great charger for my first EV (2021 VW ID.4) and I’m recently finding out it works well for my Tesla too with the adapter that came with the car.

GL with the solar + storage setup when you buy a house at some point!

Edited December 31, 2022 by nsplayr

[Lord Ratner]

On 12/31/2022 at 10:49 AM, nsplayr said:

2x Tesla Powerwall 2s, so 27 kWh of storage. I would have gone with 3x powerwalls on a 10.2 kW solar system but they’re just so damn expensive. I have a decent ability to charge my EVs during daylight hours due to shift work, so ultimately I decided against it for now. Could easily add a third in the future and if the prices come down, tech gets even better or I really just have the need after seeing the system production numbers for a year +, I will.

Ideally in the near future also all EVs would be able to do straight up bi-directional charging. I’ve got another 142 kWh of “storage” between my two cars, it would be phenomenal to be able to feed that back into my powerwalls and therefore my house load panel during an extended outage situation where I might value electricity in my home more than driving.

The F-150 Lightning I think will be the first EV in America that can do this, although I’ve heard the setup is very expensive once it’s all said and done.

Look up Will Prowse on YouTube. The Tesla Powerwall is wildly overpriced. When it was the only game in town it made sense, but now there are a lot of really good options for cheap, comparatively.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Lord Ratner

[nsplayr]

11 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Look up Will Prowse on YouTube. The Tesla Powerwall is wildly overpriced. When it was the only game in town it made sense, but now there are a lot of really good options for cheap, comparatively.

I've seen his videos before, he's good.

1000% agree the Powerwall is overpriced. I own a Tesla Model 3 that cost, say, $50K (2023 RWD). It has a ~60 kWh battery. Each Powerwall has 13.5 kWh of storage and costs about $11K on average ($12.5K for the first one, $9K for the second one because you already have the gateway and wiring; close enough). So that's $815 per kWh, which is similar to the price per kWh of my car except, oh yea...it's an entire freaking car and not just a battery in a box! Powerwall is a luxury product because Tesla is using the same batteries* as their vehicles but the market thus far has supported a much higher markup and they're still sold out for years. Good for them I guess, capitalism FTW. If the price was still $6K like when the Powerwall 2 first came out I would have bought three.

I looked at a bunch of different setups and despite the cost, SolarEdge + Powerwall was my preferred option. The software interface with Powerwall is fantastic, it was the preferred option to install for my preferred installation vendor (LightWave Solar), and I didn't want to DIY. My runner-up was SolArk inverter with the HomeGrid Stack'd batteries which seem cool because they're LFP and modular and also on the DC-side of the equation so it's a bit more efficient.

*Caveat that my car actually has a different battery chemistry than my Powerwalls...LFP in the car vs NMC in the Powerwalls.

Edited January 3, 2023 by nsplayr

[BashiChuni]

do yall seeing the battery storage/powerwall getting exponentially better/cheaper in the next 5-10 years?

i'm hoping it is akin to flat screen tvs and how they started super expensive but now are relatively cheap.

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, nsplayr said:

and I didn't want to DIY.

Yeah, that's definitely where most of the savings are. 

 

It's amazing how cheap the LFP batteries have gotten. So much so that in my opinion the solar panels are now the secondary focus. Batteries + Inverters first, with a small generator. Because the Inverters cover peak load, the generator can be much, much smaller, sized for average use rather than peak use. Much less fuel to keep the home running during a blizzard.

 

Then wait for a good deal and add the panels whenever. You can buy them used for a song, and they still put out a ton of power. Panels are about the simplest thing in the world to install, so it's almost criminal how much installers are charging people who don't know any better. But that's always the cost of having someone else do the labor. And you don't have to add them all at once either, the modern inverters handle a wide range of voltages so you can add panels onesie twosie without having to change anything at the power panel.

 

And if you already have a whole home generator, depending on your setup, the batteries and inverter can still be a great investment. When we had the blizzard in Texas, the people with whole home generators were sitting fat dumb and happy until they ran out of propane. I think in most places the natural gas lines kept running, so those people were fine. But many were still shocked by just how much gas those things use at idle. With a battery bank you can fire up your whole home generator, run it at peak for just long enough to recharge the batteries, then turn it off again until the batteries are low. Fuel usage can be reduced by 75 to 90% this way.

 

I'm a big Elon fan, and I'm hoping the battery chemistry ends up being another area he revolutionizes.

[Lord Ratner]

25 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

do yall seeing the battery storage/powerwall getting exponentially better/cheaper in the next 5-10 years?

i'm hoping it is akin to flat screen tvs and how they started super expensive but now are relatively cheap.

10 years maybe, but 5 years I'm doubtful. Right now the best deal is in lithium iron phosphate batteries, and those are overwhelmingly made in, you guessed it, China. With the direction things are going, I don't suspect anything out of China is going to get cheaper in the medium term.

 

That being said, it's already gotten a lot cheaper if you look anywhere but Tesla. The YouTube channel I referenced covers all of the technologies, installations, product reviews, and a variety of setups. Doing it yourself you're looking at about 30% of the cost of having someone do it with the popular brands. 

 

[nsplayr]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

do yall seeing the battery storage/powerwall getting exponentially better/cheaper in the next 5-10 years?

i'm hoping it is akin to flat screen tvs and how they started super expensive but now are relatively cheap.

I do, yea, primarily because there's a ton of effort/money/brainpower being thrown at the problem as we speak and a lot of it is coming back to the US in terms of manufacturing. Leave it to the good ole U.S. of A. to pull off a huge technological W just in time, it's kind of our speciality.

I also think that in addition to the normalish cost reduction curve of any mass consumer technology, home storage in particular will get cheaper even quicker precisely because there are more and more EVs on the road. As some of the first wave of EVs get retired, those battery packs that are no longer ideal for driving are perfect for home storage where space and weight isn't nearly as big of a concern.

I would freaking love to get an old 85kWh Tesla battery pack from like a 2012 Model S and throw it in my garage for pennies on the dollar compared to their new batteries. Also newer chemistries developed to help mitigate some of the fire/degradation concerns with NMC batteries will help costs for everyone. As more LFP comes on line, relatively safe and still-capable older NMC packs that have been in use for years should drop in cost even more as consumers with the $$ will start choosing LFP and similar better chemistry batteries for bougie installations and bargain hunters can benefit.

 

43 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

Yeah, that's definitely where most of the savings are.

Yep, you're spot on all-around pretty much. I don't have a generator but have considered it as an additional layer of backup/safety to my power setup. We have natural gas central heat and an existing stub-out for my grill on the porch. It wouldn't be terribly expensive to fork that stub out and put a natural gas-fed small generator on the back porch as well for exactly what you mentioned, charging our batteries in the event of an extended outage that happens during cloudy/stormy winter days where my solar won't be able to produce much of anything. I will probably spend money on rain water collection/storage/pumping next, but more power security is still on my list even though I'm in a great place with solar + storage now.

I had no time, desire or skills right now for a big solar + battery DIY, but if I ever bought an off-grid cabin in the mountains, which I'd love to own one day, I will probably take the time to learn and do it myself out there in the woods. This youtube channel has a great DIY solar storage container project that I enjoyed watching a lot: https://www.ambitionstrikes.com/offgridpower

 

41 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

With the direction things are going, I don't suspect anything out of China is going to get cheaper in the medium term.

Also correct...the global implications of China keeping COVID near zero for years with extremely draconian lockdowns, failing to vaccinate it's elderly and vulnerable populations, and now doing a complete 180 and just letting the virus rip is going to result in a ton of death and economic destruction. I'm glad a lot of solar/battery/chip manufacturing is coming back to the US, but it's not gonna happen fast enough to buffer the turmoil out of China in the near future unfortunately.

Check out that Homegrid Stack'd battery if anyone wants a more DIY setup, it looked really legit. It is a newer company though and I was more wary about their warranty...a 20 year warranty from a 2 year old company doesn't mean a whole lot IMHO but the technology looked very legit and it seemed pretty simple to install and even easier to expand in small increments in the future.

Edited January 3, 2023 by nsplayr

[Lord Ratner]

Here's a fun solar statistic. Power plant generation is rated by utilization percentages. A nuclear power plant in a well-run country usually is slightly above 90%. Germany, the icon of renewable nonsense, reported their annualized utilization percentage for solar at 11%. 11! And they just spent half a trillion dollars setting world records  at reestablishing coal plants. In fact, in December they were one of the dirtiest power producing countries on earth.

Solar is not a serious technology (for grid use), and if the central banks lose the ability to print unlimited money for similar government waste, solar is going to go down in flames.

Edited January 4, 2023 by Lord Ratner

[Biff_T]

 

 

 

[Sua Sponte]

If using LFPs for storage do you have to do a battery recalibration every so often? Tesla requires Model 3 Standard Range LFP owners to do it when owners were having their car die with 10-20% of battery remaining.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Sua Sponte

[nsplayr]

6 hours ago, Sua Sponte said:

If using LFPs for storage do you have to do a battery recalibration every so often? Tesla requires Model 3 Standard Range LFP owners to do it when owners were having their car die with 10-20% of battery remaining.

Haven’t seen anything in the owners manual or forums about needing to recalibrate the battery management system in my LFP Tesla car. I don’t even think there’s an option to do so.

The manual just says to charge up to 100% once per week and recommends you charge to 100% whenever you want, including daily. It seems like they’re figured out the software a bit better and apparently it maintains fairly solid range guesstimations all the way down. I’ve only driven mine down to 11% but it seemed fairly linear/predictable. I did hear stories of older S and X Models have some unexpected dying at low but non-zero states of charge, but that was years ago and also using NMC batteries regardless.

For home storage it’s probably even less important to have a gnat’s ass accurate % remaining number because in a lot of applications if your battery is empty you just seamlessly switch to pulling from the grid, but I’m betting the issue can be solved entirely with wherever BMS software Tesla has in their newer LFP cars.

Edited January 10, 2023 by nsplayr

[Sua Sponte]

55 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

Haven’t seen anything in the owners manual or forums about needing to recalibrate the battery management system in my LFP Tesla car. I don’t even think there’s an option to do so.

The manual just says to charge up to 100% once per week and recommends you charge to 100% whenever you want, including daily. It seems like they’re figured out the software a bit better and apparently it maintains fairly solid range guesstimations all the way down. I’ve only driven mine down to 11% but it seemed fairly linear/predictable. I did hear stories of older S and X Models have some unexpected dying at low but non-zero states of charge, but that was years ago and also using NMC batteries regardless.

For home storage it’s probably even less important to have a gnat’s ass accurate % remaining number because in a lot of applications if your battery is empty you just seamlessly switch to pulling from the grid, but I’m betting the issue can be solved entirely with wherever BMS software Tesla has in their newer LFP cars.

Charging to 100% helps the BMS more accurately calculate the SoC of a LFP battery compared the NCA battery in my Model 3 Performance that I charge daily to 90% and only to 100% when I take long road trips. 

https://www.torquenews.com/15475/battery-charging-behavior-tesla-recommends-charging-lfp-models-100-key-voltage-0

Quote

The charge and discharge curve of LFP batteries is extremely flat as compared to other chemistries: the voltage rises when the battery is almost full and drops when it is almost empty, while at the intermediate points it remains very stable. In these circumstances the BMS has a difficult time establishing exactly the percentage of remaining battery (SoC, State of Charge) at intermediate points. The result could be that the system might indicate a remaining capacity of 20%, but after a short time reduce it to 5% as a result of a BMS calculation error.