Dilemma: Active duty dream job or wait for ANG fighter?

[Av8]

I've got a pretty tough dilemma. I'm in the interview process for an ANG fighter, with a high likelihood of either getting picked up or alternate, but no deadline to hear back. I'm talking like a 69% chance or higher at this point of being picked up or alternate. However, I just got offered essentially my dream job on active duty. Problem is... If I take the active duty job, I incur an additional two years of service commitment and likely wouldn't be able to take the fighter job if offered (I think). My logical thought process is struggling to make a decision. On one hand "a bird in the hand" applies, but on the other, a fighter flying job in the ANG is my real dream job overall. I have a couple weeks before I sign the paperwork for the active duty job, so here are my questions to help make this decision:

1. Say I take the active duty job, then get notified I got selected for the fighter job. When would the squadron expect me to transition to the guard? Immediately (pending the scrolling process)? Before my UFT start date?

2. With the pipeline backup, could I possibly do both? Go to my active duty job and palace chase into the guard job?

3. I can't stay at my current base forever, so eventually if I don't take this job I will have to incur a service commitment or get out of the Air Force altogether. If I get out (which I don't necessarily want to do), does that make it tougher to go back into the guard/reserves with a break in service?

[brabus]

Did you already interview? Not sure what you’re trying to communicate with “69% chance.” If you’ve already interviewed, that answer should come pretty quick...those aren’t decisions a squadron is going to hem and haw over for weeks on end (at least in my experience). For reference, we hired an AD guy who couldn’t get out for a year and change, so the unit may work with you if you have to take the next assignment and try to PC off some time. 

[Av8]

2 hours ago, brabus said:

Did you already interview? Not sure what you’re trying to communicate with “69% chance.” If you’ve already interviewed, that answer should come pretty quick...those aren’t decisions a squadron is going to hem and haw over for weeks on end (at least in my experience). For reference, we hired an AD guy who couldn’t get out for a year and change, so the unit may work with you if you have to take the next assignment and try to PC off some time. 

Typically that's the case, but this one is a unique scenario. I have an equal shot at getting picked up, getting an alternate, and not getting anything based off of the number of interviewees and slots available. The timeline to hear back from the ANG squadron is indefinite as of now, but I have a week or two to make my active duty decision. Palace Chase is definitely a great option, but really the scenario I'm worried about is if I get an alternate. Then I would likely need to be "on call" if someone can't make it through the process, which doesn't work out well if I have a service commitment. Rumor is, if I pay for my move then I could possibly get my ADSC waived...has anyone tried that successfully?

[KWings06j]

I wouldn't plan on getting out of an ADSC with current pilot manning. Though, based on the bonus this year, the crisis has clearly been solved. Remember, release from ADSC is not a financial decision for the AF. Offering to pay back anything doesn't necessarily increase your likelihood of approval. 

Have you tried calling the unit and explaining your situation? They may not be willing to tell you your standing yet but they might at least recommend a course of action (though that would pretty much tell you where you ranked). It doesn't sound like you have any idea of your actual odds and are just going off blind probability. 

[Av8]

57 minutes ago, KWings06j said:

I wouldn't plan on getting out of an ADSC with current pilot manning. Though, based on the bonus this year, the crisis has clearly been solved. Remember, release from ADSC is not a financial decision for the AF. Offering to pay back anything doesn't necessarily increase your likelihood of approval. 

Have you tried calling the unit and explaining your situation? They may not be willing to tell you your standing yet but they might at least recommend a course of action (though that would pretty much tell you where you ranked). It doesn't sound like you have any idea of your actual odds and are just going off blind probability. 

I should clarify I am currently non-rated. I have a little knowledge of where I stand based off of how many guys are still in the running and how many spots are available. My gut and the little info I have tells me I will likely get the alternate slot. Also, this AD opportunity is a new development (within the past few days) so I haven't had a discussion with the squadron about it yet. I'm trying to get my ducks in a row first and fully understand my predicament, but I will likely reach out to the squadron before I make my decision. 

Also, I do have new information that since my assignment is a volunteer opportunity, they have had success in the past taking care of their people when other opportunities come up. Makes me feel better about possibly accepting it.

[Seadogs]

12 minutes ago, Av8 said:

I should clarify I am currently non-rated. I have a little knowledge of where I stand based off of how many guys are still in the running and how many spots are available. My gut and the little info I have tells me I will likely get the alternate slot. Also, this AD opportunity is a new development (within the past few days) so I haven't had a discussion with the squadron about it yet. I'm trying to get my ducks in a row first and fully understand my predicament, but I will likely reach out to the squadron before I make my decision. 

Also, I do have new information that since my assignment is a volunteer opportunity, they have had success in the past taking care of their people when other opportunities come up. Makes me feel better about possibly accepting it.

You don't think the squadron has guy's on here looking at these posts? They can put 2 and 2 together, it's not a good look to assume you have a slot. You might be shooting yourself in the foot with this post. 

[brabus]

10 hours ago, Av8 said:

Rumor is, if I pay for my move then I could possibly get my ADSC waived...has anyone tried that successfully?

Do you have any current ADSC before this possible PCS? Because the AF can’t force you to take a PCS ADSC if it would take you past the longest ADSC you currently have. If this is the case, they could still PCS you, but you don’t incur additional ADSC.

[Av8]

I have about 7 days of ADSC left, but I imagine it would run out before I sign the papers to PCS. It would be sweet if I could sign the paperwork before then and not incur ADSC though

[mcbush]

To clarify, what Brabus is talking about is only an option if you turn down the assignment.

Since your ADSC runs out in a week, accepting this assignment (and the PCS that comes with it) would extend your ADSC. Because that's the case, you have the option to either accept or decline the assignment. If you accept, you PCS and they extend your ADSC by a couple years. If you decline, it establishes a separation date, and the AF can still force you to PCS and serve out that assignment up until your separation date, but they can't forcibly extend your ADSC. Check out 36-2110 for details.

P.S. Declining is only an option within 7 days of assignment notification, so don't sit on this for too long.

[brabus]

Good clarification mcbush. 

How bad does the AF want you to stay in...maybe tell your boss you’re happy to stay without an ADSC, but you’ll walk if they won’t take the deal. May work out, may not. Seen it work for several friends, but they’re pilots and and this was pre-COVID