(Not the Usual) Posturing

[GrndPndr]

Russian Navy off the Hawaii coast, and now the Brits are used for live fire training on the Black sea.  Usual posturing or unusual?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/23/russian-ship-fired-warning-shots-at-royal-navy-destroyer-hms-defender-moscow-says

 

[SurelySerious]

The Russians always say they “warned coalition aircraft, and subsequently they left” even if the flight path was a straight line. Sounds like pretty normal trumped up language.

[FLEA]

2 hours ago, GrndPndr said:

Russian Navy off the Hawaii coast, and now the Brits are used for live fire training on the Black sea.  Usual posturing or unusual?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/23/russian-ship-fired-warning-shots-at-royal-navy-destroyer-hms-defender-moscow-says

 

Black Sea yes. Hawaii... Unusual but I expect to see Russia exerting more influence in the Pacific region now that the global balance of power is becoming more centered in that region. People often forget, Russia has a Pacific shoreline and more of Russia is in Asia than in Europe. 

[FLEA]

Good link of how China (but also Russia's) sphere of influence has changed over the last 4 decades. 

 

https://www.axios.com/china-global-influence-map-us-powerful-cfe94279-2828-4364-a791-7f793e30aa0b.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=world-chinaglobalinfluence

[TreeA10]

It was weird to hear "Russian aircraft, this is US warship EZ on guard" calls the other day leaving Hawaii. 

[Lawman]

Black Sea yes. Hawaii... Unusual but I expect to see Russia exerting more influence in the Pacific region now that the global balance of power is becoming more centered in that region. People often forget, Russia has a Pacific shoreline and more of Russia is in Asia than in Europe. 

And prudence demands we deploy our ships to watch your ships…


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[FLEA]

So the transatlantic trade sphere is considered the worlds largest and has largely caged Russian motivations in previous decades. I.e., seeking a warm water port. 

But geographically speaking Russia has excellent access to the trans Pacific trade sphere already. I'm curious with tech hardware and tech software becoming hubbed in China and the US respectively how long will that be considered. Who makes that determination and how is it measured? 

I believe both the US and Russia have more interest in the Pacific right now that they do on Europe or the Atlantic. However US strategy is still largely built around the 1991 Trans Atlantic partnership/NATO. 

[Lawman]

So the transatlantic trade sphere is considered the worlds largest and has largely caged Russian motivations in previous decades. I.e., seeking a warm water port. 
But geographically speaking Russia has excellent access to the trans Pacific trade sphere already. I'm curious with tech hardware and tech software becoming hubbed in China and the US respectively how long will that be considered. Who makes that determination and how is it measured? 
I believe both the US and Russia have more interest in the Pacific right now that they do on Europe or the Atlantic. However US strategy is still largely built around the 1991 Trans Atlantic partnership/NATO. 

What Russia does not have is quality in its Pacific harbors.

If you look back on a 70 year long history of Soviet and later Russian “just make it work,” the quality control and corruption in places like Vladivostok is terrible in comparison to its North Cape or Baltic fleet stations even by old Soviet standards.

Russian subs and surface combatants were typically built first in their European stations, fitted out, shook out, and then after a few years sent to the Pacific to serve out a lengthy term.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SurelySerious]

The UK and Russia as Aggressor and Defender: Two Narratives, Similar Obligations
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/uk-and-russia-aggressor-and-defender-two-narratives-similar-obligations

Pretty decent analysis.

[Clark Griswold]

In related news, the Tiger and Dragon are getting into more aggressive postures towards each other

India Shifts 50,000 Troops to China Border in Historic Move | Financial Post

 

[SuperWSO]

Those of you who have access should check SIPR or ask your Intel troops about these events.

[M2]

17 hours ago, SuperWSO said:

Those of you who have access should check SIPR or ask your Intel troops about these events.

There is a BaseOps Intellipedia page on SIPR, might be worth posting intel there if you can find it.