Home Prices

[flammable]

What are my fellow PCS'ers doing in this market? I recently PCSed and home prices like much of the nation are wild around here. I keep trying to wrap my head around buying a house that appreciated 80k in 2 years and its tough. A house that sold in 2019 on zillow for 270 is now 350!

On one hand, if I stay renting I am paying ~17-20K to someone else. On the other, if I buy even at these prices and stay for 2-3 years, that's equity I could be pocketing (even assuming a 10% market drop).

[di1630]

What are my fellow PCS'ers doing in this market? I recently PCSed and home prices like much of the nation are wild around here. I keep trying to wrap my head around buying a house that appreciated 80k in 2 years and its tough. A house that sold in 2019 on zillow for 270 is now 350!
On one hand, if I stay renting I am paying ~17-20K to someone else. On the other, if I buy even at these prices and stay for 2-3 years, that's equity I could be pocketing (even assuming a 10% market drop).

Depends where you are at and potential for upside/crash/future rental possibility, how long you will stay etc.

[Standby]

Buy a BADASS fifth wheel and ride out the market until 1) you see the pricing you want 2) can’t take the tiny living any longer. 

[raimius]

Can you afford a major market drop?  Don't sucker yourself into a bad situation.

If you can take the hit, it's probably a more acceptable risk.  Is this a normally increasing market, or is this rise an abnormality in a usually stable market?

[Magellan]

13 hours ago, flammable said:

What are my fellow PCS'ers doing in this market? I recently PCSed and home prices like much of the nation are wild around here. I keep trying to wrap my head around buying a house that appreciated 80k in 2 years and its tough. A house that sold in 2019 on zillow for 270 is now 350!

On one hand, if I stay renting I am paying ~17-20K to someone else. On the other, if I buy even at these prices and stay for 2-3 years, that's equity I could be pocketing (even assuming a 10% market drop).

Can you pay the mortgage for 15-30 years?  Do you want to pay the mortgage for 15-30 years.  If not rent.

[pawnman]

14 hours ago, flammable said:

What are my fellow PCS'ers doing in this market? I recently PCSed and home prices like much of the nation are wild around here. I keep trying to wrap my head around buying a house that appreciated 80k in 2 years and its tough. A house that sold in 2019 on zillow for 270 is now 350!

On one hand, if I stay renting I am paying ~17-20K to someone else. On the other, if I buy even at these prices and stay for 2-3 years, that's equity I could be pocketing (even assuming a 10% market drop).

Rent is the most you'll pay to live in a place. 

The mortgage is the minimum amount you'll pay to own the place. 

Just because you're giving someone else money to live in their building doesn't mean it's the worst option. You're still getting a place to live, without the hassles of home maintenance, no worries about the market tanking, no issues trying to sell the place BVR when you move again. 

[hindsight2020]

2 hours ago, pawnman said:

Rent is the most you'll pay to live in a place. 

The mortgage is the minimum amount you'll pay to own the place. 

Just because you're giving someone else money to live in their building doesn't mean it's the worst option. You're still getting a place to live, without the hassles of home maintenance, no worries about the market tanking, no issues trying to sell the place BVR when you move again. 

Absolutely. It's the way I handled an 8 year stint at my last duty station. Super easy transition during the eventual PCS; a twofer since I'll never landlord as a matter of personal preference and life priorities.

Of course, I also rented cheap with a young family and put that whole spread into other aspects of my life (to include a mammoth war chest that might just be enough to not have to even dabble in the airline d!ck dance after .mil retirement). In fairness, a scheme most of these haughty m'fers I call my vocational peers generally consider beneath them, but that's neither here nor there. LOL  😄 Cheers!

 

[FDNYOldGuy]

17 hours ago, flammable said:

On one hand, if I stay renting I am paying ~17-20K to someone else

As others have stated, too, rent gets a bad rap. Instead of thinking of throwing your money away to someone else, think of it as having the ability to say “f-this” to a lot of things. Lots of expensive repairs, crappy neighbors/neighborhood, bad schools, or market/value tanks? Rent gives you the ability to say “I’m out” and just walk away. 

As you said yourself, markets are insane. What if the crash happens right before your next PCS and you’re underwater in a property you can’t sell? What if you get a double whammy of a flooded rental market and you have trouble getting a good renter or covering your nut? Now your financial picture gets a little more dire and you’re stuck spending that money not on your current living needs.

Buying a personal house is great, but it gets a little overvalued in the “American Dream” we all get taught. Some people’s Dream turns into a nightmare that they get sunk by because they get clouded by the drive to follow in others’ footsteps of “success.”

Pre-9/11, housing outpaced inflation by about 1% over a ~75 year period. Not what you call a killer investment. It’s only been in the low interest rate environment since then that money has chased housing to some pretty crazy heights, with the last year or two being exceptionally crazy.

Does it keep going? Who knows? Rent makes you not have to care, either way, is a big piece to that. 

[Springer]

4 hours ago, pawnman said:

Rent is the most you'll pay to live in a place. 

The mortgage is the minimum amount you'll pay to own the place. 

Just because you're giving someone else money to live in their building doesn't mean it's the worst option. You're still getting a place to live, without the hassles of home maintenance, no worries about the market tanking, no issues trying to sell the place BVR when you move again. 

This.  We owners got wacked last year for a $100K/each assessment by our condo association for repairs.  

[Guest LumberjackAxe]

Flammable, where did you PCS to? It all depends on location. If you PCS'd to Travis, then you should absolutely buy. If you PCS'd to Columbus, then probably not.

[Kenny Powers]

The other way to think about renting is that it will free up cash for other investments and opportunities if you have it.

For example, say I sell my home and get $250k equity out of it. If I were PCS'ing and knew I'd only be in place for 2-3 years, I think I'd rent and use my equity for other opportunities based on most real estate markets right now, but that's a personal choice.

Both the stock market and real estate markets are sky high. Who knows for how long but now would be a great time to rent and put that cash in the bank so you're ready to capitalize on a big dip in either market.

Edited September 1, 2021 by Kenny Powers

[Kenny Powers]

10 minutes ago, TheLaughingCow said:

Or rather, it would be a great time if inflation weren't running at 5% with safe bonds paying 1.3%

Not saying all your cash should be in the bank, just saying now isn't a bad time to have some opportunity cash sitting around.

[flammable]

On 9/1/2021 at 3:26 PM, LumberjackAxe said:

Flammable, where did you PCS to? It all depends on location. If you PCS'd to Travis, then you should absolutely buy. If you PCS'd to Columbus, then probably not.

A base similar to Beale. Kind of an hour or two away from a larger city and surrounding town has no real industry. Appreciation from 2008 - 2018 was maybe 2-4% a year and the last two have been 14/15% consecutively.

[SocialD]

Heck depending on where you live, you could be covered by an eviction moratorium.  Start renting now, then don't pay your rent, give your landlords the middle finger until big brother lifts the moratoriums in full.  I figure you can account for 6-9 months of rent-free living, maybe more if you want to drag out the eviction process.  LOL, I kid...but that kind of shit is going on right now.

I guess the question is how comfortable are you that the market will stay the same in your time at this duty station?  Although I'm not a huge fan of renting, in this market, I might consider it if I had to move.  This market is absolutely ridiculous and I'm expecting/hoping to see the bottom drop out in the next year.  When they finally lift all moratoriums on mortgages, I'd expect to see the foreclosures start to hit big time.  Pre-Rona, the number of mortgages going into foreclosure ran around 35-40k/month, right now we're running at about 2-3k/month.  LOTS of mortgages are currently in default and lenders are just waiting for the moratorium end date.  Thankfully, I'm not in a hurry to move, because I'm getting my low-ball hat ready for when/if it does drop.  I'm guessing there will be much gnashing of teeth as people finally have the realization that they're going to take a bath to sell their homes or go into foreclosure.  I'd expect to see the market flooded with boats/campers/jet skis/etc... as well.  

Hell even the tax men are drunk with dollar signs.  I just got notice that they think my townhome is worth about 20-25% more than I could ever dream of selling it for.  Called them up and asked them who their pot supplier was, because they must be getting the good stuff!  With ridiculous property taxes in my area, this is a battle I need to win.  

 

On 8/31/2021 at 10:34 PM, Standby said:

Buy a BADASS fifth wheel and ride out the market until 1) you see the pricing you want 2) can’t take the tiny living any longer. 

 

Hell, 5th wheels are hard to come by right now too.  6-9 month waits and even then, you often can't get the models you want.  People just mentioned they were considering selling and they had offers from all over, well over what they paid 5+ years ago. It's nutty!  

Edited September 5, 2021 by SocialD

[Guest LumberjackAxe]

12 hours ago, flammable said:

A base similar to Beale. Kind of an hour or two away from a larger city and surrounding town has no real industry. Appreciation from 2008 - 2018 was maybe 2-4% a year and the last two have been 14/15% consecutively.

Then maybe I’d lean more towards renting. 

[Fly4five]

https://www.airforcetimes.com/pay-benefits/mil-money/2021/09/13/temporary-hike-in-bah-imminent-for-some-troops-families-caught-in-housing-crunch/

Sent from my SM-G973U using Baseops Network mobile app



Looks like a couple high cost areas are about to get temporary BAH increases

[celtic020]

46 minutes ago, Fly4five said:

https://www.airforcetimes.com/pay-benefits/mil-money/2021/09/13/temporary-hike-in-bah-imminent-for-some-troops-families-caught-in-housing-crunch/

Sent from my SM-G973U using Baseops Network mobile app



Looks like a couple high cost areas are about to get temporary BAH increases

National Capital Region is not on the list floating around.  $699,900 gets you a 2br, 1ba 1000 sq ft townhome here....good for an lol.  Good job, good effort DOD

[Guest]

2 hours ago, celtic020 said:

National Capital Region is not on the list floating around.  $699,900 gets you a 2br, 1ba 1000 sq ft townhome here....good for an lol.  Good job, good effort DOD

Stack silver. Live in a camper. Embrace the collapse. Hope the nation survives and purchase property, OR

Become an even bigger debt slave to the (((banks))) by purchasing property in this hyper inflated nation on the verge of becoming insolvent, OR

Eat the bugs/soy. Live in a pod. Take your 20th booster shot, OR

Be lined up against the wall and shot by the government because you've been labeled a dissident.

The choice is yours.

Edited September 14, 2021 by dogfish78

[QAZqaz]

On 9/14/2021 at 3:28 PM, dogfish78 said:

Stack silver. Live in a camper. Embrace the collapse. Hope the nation survives and purchase property, OR

Become an even bigger debt slave to the (((banks))) by purchasing property in this hyper inflated nation on the verge of becoming insolvent, OR

Eat the bugs/soy. Live in a pod. Take your 20th booster shot, OR

Be lined up against the wall and shot by the government because you've been labeled a dissident.

The choice is yours.

I'll bite. How much of your portfolio do you have in silver? How's that been working out?

[504PIR]

The BAH Temporary Increase Rates are out:

https://www.defensetravel.dod.mil/Docs/BAH_Temporary_Increase_Rates_Changes_Only.pdf?source=GovDelivery

 

 

 

[Guardian]

What’s a BAH temporary increase rate?

[theoriginalturk]

1 hour ago, Guardian said:

What’s a BAH temporary increase rate?

If you happen to be in the right zip code, you can apply to have a temporary increase in BAH for a few paychecks.

But it’s an application process and you have to demonstrate that your living costs have gone up. 

[Guest]

9 hours ago, QAZqaz said:

I'll bite. How much of your portfolio do you have in silver? How's that been working out?

A large stack. You’d need a crane to get it out. I don’t view it as an investment (have plenty of those), it’s a hedge against the hyper-inflation the Federal Reserve Notes (a.k.a. the interest loans that are the U.S. Dollar) have been experiencing. Equally as important as a hedge against current inflation, it also will hold it’s value if the Dollar shits it’s pants and the economy goes full Weimar Republic-tier.

[ViperMan]

4 hours ago, Guardian said:

What’s a BAH temporary increase rate?

An excuse to take it away from you later.

[hindsight2020]

13 hours ago, ViperMan said:

An excuse to take it away from you later.

Most underrated comment so far. You've said a mouthful my friend. I think they're still taking out the Social security freeze from my LES from the last bait and switch during POTUS 45. You know it's a f**kjob when the govt forbids you from NOT taking the extra cash. LOL