Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[jazzdude]

The State Department sure has some screwed up/ass-backward priorities that will complicate/slow the emergency ground evac of US Citizen trying to get the heck out of Dodge (Press Release/Source=State Department/US Embassy in Ukraine). 
'Message to U.S. Citizens: Poland/Ukraine Border Open to U.S. Citizens:'
'U.S. citizens must present proof of COVID-19 vaccination.  Travelers are also encouraged to present a negative test result from a PCR or antigen COVID-19 test, which will facilitate entry into Poland.' etc, etc, etc.
Message to U.S. Citizens: Poland/Ukraine Border Open to U.S. Citizens - U.S. Embassy in Ukraine (usembassy.gov)

You realize that Poland and the EU set the entry requirements, not the US State department, right?

[waveshaper]

10 hours ago, jazzdude said:

 

You realize that Poland and the EU set the entry requirements, not the US State department, right?

 

Yep, I get it. I just figured that due to the potential rapidly deteriorating situation in the Ukraine AO that the US State Department might be able to exert a little leverage on Poland/Romania (EU/NATO). Hopefully we can convince Poland/Romania to conduct this bureaucratic screening process (Passports/Visa/Covid Vaccination + Test, etc) of our evacuating US Citizens (also other countries citizens) at a safe location inside these countries that's a good distance from the Ukraine border. 

Edited February 14, 2022 by waveshaper

[jazzdude]

Yep, I get it. I just figured that due to the potential rapidly deteriorating situation in the Ukraine AO that the US State Department might be able to exert a little leverage on Poland/Romania (EU/NATO). Hopefully we can convince Poland/Romania to conduct this bureaucratic screening process (Passports/Visa/Covid Vaccination + Test, etc) of our evacuating US Citizens (also other countries citizens) at a safe location inside these countries that's a good distance from the Ukraine border. 

The challenge is keeping out other refugees of other nationalities that aren't approved for entry. So at a minimum, a US citizen would at least need their passport (looks like DoS was able to negotiate not needing a visa in advance due to the deteriorating Ukraine conditions), and take a COVID test at the border and quarantine if not vaccinated.

If a US citizen there doesn't believe in getting the COVID vaccine, then Romania is their best bet for a land crossing
https://ua.usembassy.gov/message-to-us-citizens-ukraine-land-border/

[HeloDude]

On 2/14/2022 at 6:26 AM, jazzdude said:

 

 

The challenge is keeping out other refugees of other nationalities that aren't approved for entry. So at a minimum, a US citizen would at least need their passport (looks like DoS was able to negotiate not needing a visa in advance due to the deteriorating Ukraine conditions), and take a COVID test at the border and quarantine if not vaccinated.

If a US citizen there doesn't believe in getting the COVID vaccine, then Romania is their best bet for a land crossing
https://ua.usembassy.gov/message-to-us-citizens-ukraine-land-border/

 

Perhaps Biden can just ask those leaders to allow Americans in their country illegally (with our without the shot)…afterall, Biden is cool with people coming into the US illegally without the shot.

Yes—this is how messed up the left has become.

[hockeydork]

Gotta love how a thread about Russia invading a soverign country devolves into a COVID thread....

[ecugringo]

Been an interesting read here.

Russia is pulling troops back.  My guess is that Putin doesnt invade, Biden claims a diplomatic victory. 

Putin gets a guarantee Ukraine never joins NATO.

NordSea Pipeline approval.

Meanwhile the media was distracted from inflation/economy the last few weeks.

[hockeydork]

5 hours ago, ecugringo said:

Been an interesting read here.

Russia is pulling troops back.  My guess is that Putin doesnt invade, Biden claims a diplomatic victory. 

Putin gets a guarantee Ukraine never joins NATO.

NordSea Pipeline approval.

Meanwhile the media was distracted from inflation/economy the last few weeks.

I don't think he is leaving without some sort of land grab. I'll be shocked if he does. There is no such thing as a guarantee about NATO membership, politicians change, agreements made now can be ripped up 4 years from now in seconds. He wants something tangible of value, and taking territory away will be much easier for him than Ukrainians getting it back, excluding some major collapse of Russia ten years down the line (which is a possibility). I think it'll be an "Oh no he's going to take all of it"...."oh wait he's only taking another 20 percent of it, whoof that's fine, disaster avoided" reaction from the West. It'll be up to the citizens if/how hard they want to resist, doesn't look like they have much chance tho. He waits another 5 years, rinse repeat, just little bites at a time. We should have pumped them full of Patriot missiles long ago, would be hard to argue that we were "decreasing stability". Defensive weapons, right? Should be done ASAP for Taiwan, just give them more of them IMO. 

[ClearedHot]

7 hours ago, ecugringo said:

Russia is pulling troops back.

Russian SAYS it is pulling troops back.  Fixed it for you.

Google Maskirovka

[NUKE]

12 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Russian SAYS it is pulling troops back.  Fixed it for you.

Google Maskirovka

100% all of this. It’s all smoke and mirrors. Putin is merely building a Potemkin village for us to see. 

[Clark Griswold]

Bullshit, Putin asked for an ITS on his troops and those guys were red for SAPR & LOAC, expect them back after they file a voucher and get their next DTS travel request thru

[McJay Pilot]

41 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Russian SAYS it is pulling troops back.  Fixed it for you.

Google Maskirovka

The nice thing about a Cold War KGB guy running the place is that their playbook is unchanged…

[hockeydork]

Pretty good older doc "Winter on Fire" on Netflix regarding Ukraine that I don't think has been mentioned here. At the very least we should leverage our economy to give these people weapons to fight for their democracy if they want it. Doing nothing because our recent involvements didn't work out may not be the answer. All the effort spent trying to convince backward countries in the middle east to embrace democracy, and now to not lend a helping hand to one that actively wants it, feels wrong. Doing nothing may be the biggest error yet, I feel like a couple boxes of anti tank missiles ain't gunna cut it. 

[Prozac]

1 hour ago, hockeydork said:

Pretty good older doc "Winter on Fire" on Netflix regarding Ukraine that I don't think has been mentioned here. At the very least we should leverage our economy to give these people weapons to fight for their democracy if they want it. Doing nothing because our recent involvements didn't work out may not be the answer. All the effort spent trying to convince backward countries in the middle east to embrace democracy, and now to not lend a helping hand to one that actively wants it, feels wrong. Doing nothing may be the biggest error yet, I feel like a couple boxes of anti tank missiles ain't gunna cut it. 

As has been mentioned, they need Patriots. Lots of ‘em. Yesterday. 

[hockeydork]

1 minute ago, Prozac said:

As has been mentioned, they need Patriots. Lots of ‘em. Yesterday. 

F*ckin send em. I'll happily work my defense contracting job for free for a month or overtime to help pay for em. Its 2022, sick of this autocratic tyrannical bullshit. Whatever stance you have on American politics doesn't matter, this dude 100 percent wants to see America fail, regardless whether the left or right is in office. 

[ClearedHot]

10 hours ago, McJay Pilot said:

The nice thing about a Cold War KGB guy running the place is that their playbook is unchanged…

In some ways their play book is the same in others it has evolved and is in fact far more complex than the Cold War days.

If you want a better understanding of what they are doing and what is driving their decision process you should read up on the Gerasimov doctrine which is actually an extraction of the "Primakov Doctrine" is a whole of government concept that fuses hard and soft power across many domains and transcends boundaries between peace and wartime.

Russia should strive toward a multipolar world managed by a concert of major powers that can counterbalance U.S. unilateral power.

Russia should insist on its primacy in the post-Soviet space and lead integration in that region.

Russia should oppose NATO expansion.

There are numerous think tanks that have published papers warning Russia would continue to pressure Ukraine and likely invade again but this administration seems oblivious.  We are playing reactionary checkers while Putin plays three dimensional chess better than Spock. 

 

[hockeydork]

Related side note. Someone should get this piece of aviation history out of there before it ends up blown to pieces

 

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UR82060

[dream big]

23 hours ago, hockeydork said:

Gotta love how a thread about Russia invading a soverign country devolves into a COVID thread....

Well it sounds like Covid is a huge factor in evacuating American citizens due many European country’s nazi Covid policies.  So yes people are discussing it as it is relevant.

[hockeydork]

3 hours ago, dream big said:

Well it sounds like Covid is a huge factor in evacuating American citizens due many European country’s nazi Covid policies.  So yes people are discussing it as it is relevant.

Word. I don't run this place, I just think a debate about various COVID policies should be hashed out in the dedicated COVID thread before it turns into a major thread derail. 

[DirkDiggler]

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/02/russia-vs-ukraine-could-provide-invaluable-lessons-on-what-truly-works-in-modern-warfare/

  The author asks some interesting questions regarding the future viability of some weapons and operational maneuver concepts based on what we could see in a Russian-Ukrainian War, carrying that forward to a US-Russia or US-China conflict.

[Prozac]

17 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/02/russia-vs-ukraine-could-provide-invaluable-lessons-on-what-truly-works-in-modern-warfare/

  The author asks some interesting questions regarding the future viability of some weapons and operational maneuver concepts based on what we could see in a Russian-Ukrainian War, carrying that forward to a US-Russia or US-China conflict.

I’m sure a lot of us will be watching in fascinated horror if this thing turns hot. As interesting as it would be, I wouldn’t wish that kind of hell on the Ukrainian population, their service members, or anyone really (including the poor Russian grunts who will be digging foxholes in the Chernobyl contaminated zone). I hope the only concrete takeaway is how to de-escalate a potential modern conflict of developed nations. 

[ClearedHot]

Reports of artillery being exchanged across the border.  More importantly, the Russian Embassy in Kyiv has white smoke as they are likely burning secret material and preparing for combat.

 

[ThreeHoler]

Reports of artillery being exchanged across the border.  More importantly, the Russian Embassy in Kyiv has white smoke as they are likely burning secret material and preparing for combat.
 

I thought white smoke meant they had chosen a new pope?

[ClearedHot]

48 minutes ago, ThreeHoler said:

I thought white smoke meant they had chosen a new pope?

Ukrainian winters are rough, maybe they are just cold.

[ClearedHot]

Russia shelled a reported Kindergarten on the border a little while ago.

[DirkDiggler]

13 hours ago, Prozac said:

I’m sure a lot of us will be watching in fascinated horror if this thing turns hot. As interesting as it would be, I wouldn’t wish that kind of hell on the Ukrainian population, their service members, or anyone really (including the poor Russian grunts who will be digging foxholes in the Chernobyl contaminated zone). I hope the only concrete takeaway is how to de-escalate a potential modern conflict of developed nations. 

I would agree with most of what you wrote above with the following exception.  If the Russian Federation (really Putin) decides to go high order with an invasion of the Ukraine, I sincerely hope that the Ukrainians stack up as many Russian bodies as they possibly can before they're either overrun or are forced into some shitty settlement.  And I don't care if some Russian private inhales radioactive dust and gets cancer 20 years from now due to a completely avoidable nuclear disaster and war of their own choosing.