Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[hockeydork]

26 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Believe it or not I've sat in a conference room at the former KGB headquarters with the head of the FSB and the FSK.  The discussions were eye opening.  The FSB guys were gregarious, the FSK folks looked at me with disdain and all of their inputs went back to the Cold War and the old FSU structure.  The would readily admit we don't have mobile nukes in Romania, but we could with a single C-17.

Fair enough

[Best-22]

I feel like what I'm reading from some of you is: "Russia is invading Ukraine, must be America's fault! If only we had given Russia more concessions.."

 

I don't follow the logic. I understand I'm only capable of seeing this through an Americans eyes, but I can't see appeasement as a viable strategy.

 

I'm honestly not convinced this is even about NATO at all. Ukraine joining isnt/wasn't imminent, and we already have NATO members at Russia's borders. My personal theory is this: Putin is motivated by his own regimes survival. A Russian speaking country (that Russia sees as in its sphere of influence) overthrowing their leadership and becoming a prosperous European style democracy could motivate dissenters within Russia, and that directly threatens Putin personally. He can't allow that, NATO membership or not. 

 

I'm happy to be wrong, but that's the only lens I can look at this through where Russias actions makes sense. 

[skybert]

11 hours ago, Prozac said:

Perhaps. Or perhaps the Russians will be surprised by the bloody nose they receive from Ukrainian resistance. Perhaps the despot Putin will be taken aback when his people revolt as the ruble craters. Perhaps the Russian people will grow increasingly impatient as the security situation on Russia’s western borders becomes more tense, which is the opposite of what Putin has promised. Perhaps the Russian bear will be surprised by the swift and unanimous condemnation of virtually every developed nation in the world. Yes, Russian oligarchs may be drooling over potential new Black Sea dachas, but nobody wants to go to their little party. them. Putin. 

God, I hope so

[Prozac]

41 minutes ago, Best-22 said:

I feel like what I'm reading from some of you is: "Russia is invading Ukraine, must be America's fault! If only we had given Russia more concessions.."

 

I don't follow the logic. I understand I'm only capable of seeing this through an Americans eyes, but I can't see appeasement as a viable strategy.

 

I'm honestly not convinced this is even about NATO at all. Ukraine joining isnt/wasn't imminent, and we already have NATO members at Russia's borders. My personal theory is this: Putin is motivated by his own regimes survival. A Russian speaking country (that Russia sees as in its sphere of influence) overthrowing their leadership and becoming a prosperous European style democracy could motivate dissenters within Russia, and that directly threatens Putin personally. He can't allow that, NATO membership or not. 

 

I'm happy to be wrong, but that's the only lens I can look at this through where Russias actions makes sense. 

This. Putin does not see NATO as an actual threat on his Western flank. But he likes to use that trope on his own people in order to further secure his position of power. This idea that we should affect policy with an eye to historic Russian sensitivities is bollocks and only further plays into Putin’s hand. There is only one “right” position here and it’s not the one that’s apologetic for spreading liberal democracy. 

[Clark Griswold]

Where the hell are all the do good tech & finance companies?
Why isn’t Google, FB, Twitter, Apple, etc…. suspending business and operations in reaction to aggression?
If they wanna do something, cut them off


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[Prosuper]

Maybe we should have had Military assistance command Ukraine with the 82nd airborne at the airport training Ukranian troops. I know it sounds familiar but would have Putin attacked if the US/NATO had a presence there? He would have screamed bloody murder. Now we sit and wait to hope that NATO and Russian pilots flying within eyeball range don't screw up or someone's airliner doesn't gets shot down.

[ecugringo]

49 minutes ago, Prozac said:

This. Putin does not see NATO as an actual threat on his Western flank. But he likes to use that trope on his own people in order to further secure his position of power. This idea that we should affect policy with an eye to historic Russian sensitivities is bollocks and only further plays into Putin’s hand. There is only one “right” position here and it’s not the one that’s apologetic for spreading liberal democracy. 

Isnt Russia one of the fastest dying populations in the world?  I remember reading something like the birth rate is extremely low and in something like 40 years their population will be less than 1/2 what it is today?

I do think Putin wants to expand his sphere of influence into Europe and push the US out.  If the EU gravitates towards Russia for resources in enhances Russia's survivability long term.

[kaputt]

Some pretty wild video out there of a Russian jet attacking a target that either is a civilian residence or is in close proximity to civilian homes. 
 

Of course unsure if it’s legit or not and I saw it on Instagram, so can’t link it here. 
 

It’s probably floating out there on Twitter too. 

[ClearedHot]

Several Russian KA-52 Alligators Shot Down

MI-8's defeat Manpad

 

[Prosuper]

14 minutes ago, ecugringo said:

Isnt Russia one of the fastest dying populations in the world?  I remember reading something like the birth rate is extremely low and in something like 40 years their population will be less than 1/2 what it is today?

I do think Putin wants to expand his sphere of influence into Europe and push the US out.  If the EU gravitates towards Russia for resources in enhances Russia's survivability long term.

 

[Sua Sponte]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

Several Russian KA-52 Alligators Shot Down

MI-8's defeat Manpad

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/awfuleverything/comments/t0fgk9/first_russian_casualties_a_large_invading_russian/

[brickhistory]

I say again, not our fight.

This Administration has got to be seen doing "something" for PR purposes, but in practical terms, not so much.

Europe, particularly Germany, do not want to get tough with sanctions, especially SWIFT.  The jacked up gas prices are already spooking them.

If they don't want to stand up to the Bear, why should we?  We have our own oil and gas and could sell if certain policies newly enacted were reversed.  Screw Vlad getting the band back together.  If we act strong economically, we can beat him non-kinectically.  In a fight that isn't ours.

If we are going to fight, then it damned sure ought to be all in.  But will we?  Nope.  Should we?  Nope.

But the current clown show of Obama foreign policy II is going to screw the pooch.  Of that I am sure.  I hope to be wrong.

But something will go over the Russian line and we won't realize it, especially if we go cyber.  I know we don't talk about it here for obvious reasons, but if we poke vigoursly via electrons, I think we and the West will cry "uncle" before the Russkis.

Interesting to hear how this is Trump's fault and the invasion this week is the reason for the rampant inflation of last year.  With that kind of time travel at our disposal, this should be an easy win for us...

[hockeydork]

19 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

Europe, particularly Germany, do not want to get tough with sanctions, especially SWIFT.  The jacked up gas prices are already spooking them.

If they don't want to stand up to the Bear, why should we?  We have our own oil and gas and could sell if certain policies newly enacted were reversed.  Screw Vlad getting the band back together.  If we act strong economically, we can beat him non-kinectically.  In a fight that isn't ours.

 

Consensus in this thread does seem to be to let Russia shoot themselves in the foot on this one and just crush them economically. And yea screw the rest of Europe if they don't care enough to stop resisit and stop buying fuel from them. But I cannot say screw the Ukrainian 18 year old fighting for his country, and on the right side of history. We need to keep the javelins and stingers flowing...

[Tank]

[Sim]

3 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

Where the hell are all the do good tech & finance companies?

[herkbier]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

Biden isn’t playing checkers, he’s playing Sorry!

[Lawman]

Drinks on me for the boys that did this….



Great work guys, keep them coming.


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[Clark Griswold]

One Ukrainian Flanker got away

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/heres-the-ukrainian-air-force-sukhoi-su-27-flanker-that-landed-in-romania-after-having-been-intercepted-by-romanian-air-force-f-16-fighting-falcon-fighter-jets/

Haven’t heard much about the Ukrainian AF - were most of their pointy nose jets destroyed on the ground, any air to air engagements or anybody know anything releasable?


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[uhhello]

8 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

One Ukrainian Flanker got away

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/heres-the-ukrainian-air-force-sukhoi-su-27-flanker-that-landed-in-romania-after-having-been-intercepted-by-romanian-air-force-f-16-fighting-falcon-fighter-jets/

Haven’t heard much about the Ukrainian AF - were most of their pointy nose jets destroyed on the ground, any air to air engagements or anybody know anything releasable?


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Intel Crab on twitter is pretty good.  A bunch of un-confirmed first hand reports but better than FOX and CNN.  

 

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1496987322553876480?s=20&t=RUV9-7vdwjEXfyhAdKCKFg

[Sim]

Abandoned Ka-52. 

[ClearedHot]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

People down voted this post but they won't defend the mushmellow in the White House and his actions.

[hockeydork]

3 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

People down voted this post but they won't defend the mushmellow in the White House and his actions.

Mellow or not, almost everyone in here says they don't want us getting directly involved. What else is he gunna do? Seems to me like we're doing the best we can, just need Europe to not go soft. 

 

Also they need more weapons:

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/24/we-need-as-much-stinger-and-anti-tank-weapons-as-possible-says-ukraines-defense-minister/

[Day Man]

45 minutes ago, uhhello said:

Intel Crab on twitter is pretty good.  A bunch of un-confirmed first hand reports but better than FOX and CNN.  

 

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1496987322553876480?s=20&t=RUV9-7vdwjEXfyhAdKCKFg

2

if you don't have twitter, use incognito/private browsing to scroll at will.

[ClearedHot]

7 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

Mellow or not, almost everyone in here says they don't want us getting directly involved. What else is he gunna do? Seems to me like we're doing the best we can, just need Europe to not go soft.

It is not what he is doing now it is what he did the last 12 months leading up to this.  Dude can barely eat his oatmeal and prune juice let alone be the leader of the free world.

[Clark Griswold]

Post was updated An-225 not destroyed