Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[uhhello]

3 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Really? What are his goals here? He want’s to weaken NATO on his borders and ensure the alliance makes no more gains in Ukraine of course, but also countries like Finland and Sweden. How’s that working out so far? NATO is more United in purpose now than it has been in 30 years. The US is moving troops back into Europe and I’d be willing to bet that their presence will be permanent. Countries that have been hesitant to spend defense dollars will now be rethinking their priorities. The Finns are going to be thinking long and hard about where their allegiances lie. Instead of weakening NATO, the only thing Putin has managed to do is get the West’s hackles up and further fortify ex-Soviet NATO countries. And while I agree that cutting Russia off from Swift should’ve happened yesterday, other measures taken are not trivial. Most importantly, NordStream II has been shelved and the Europeans are actively discussing how to wean themselves off Russian energy long term. 
 

So yes, Putin is about to gain a satellite state on the Black Sea, albeit one filled with angry citizens who will likely mount an insurgency that will be killing Russian soldiers and sympathizers for many years to come. But he is loosing virtually all of his other strategic goals. And we haven’t even begun to discuss how these developments will affect his regime’s hold on power as Russians become annoyed by the body count, by their inability to travel, by their economy tanking, and by their security deteriorating. I fail to see how this is a win for Putin. In fact, it looks more like a colossal mistake and about the dumbest move he could’ve possibly made. 

Yup.  I'm not a smart man but I struggle to see the long term of this for Russia.  

[FLEA]

2 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Really? What are his goals here? He want’s to weaken NATO on his borders and ensure the alliance makes no more gains in Ukraine of course, but also countries like Finland and Sweden. How’s that working out so far? NATO is more United in purpose now than it has been in 30 years. The US is moving troops back into Europe and I’d be willing to bet that their presence will be permanent. Countries that have been hesitant to spend defense dollars will now be rethinking their priorities. The Finns are going to be thinking long and hard about where their allegiances lie. Instead of weakening NATO, the only thing Putin has managed to do is get the West’s hackles up and further fortify ex-Soviet NATO countries. And while I agree that cutting Russia off from Swift should’ve happened yesterday, other measures taken are not trivial. Most importantly, NordStream II has been shelved and the Europeans are actively discussing how to wean themselves off Russian energy long term. 
 

So yes, Putin is about to gain a satellite state on the Black Sea, albeit one filled with angry citizens who will likely mount an insurgency that will be killing Russian soldiers and sympathizers for many years to come. But he is loosing virtually all of his other strategic goals. And we haven’t even begun to discuss how these developments will affect his regime’s hold on power as Russians become annoyed by the body count, by their inability to travel, by their economy tanking, and by their security deteriorating. I fail to see how this is a win for Putin. In fact, it looks more like a colossal mistake and about the dumbest move he could’ve possibly made. 

Just said noone will truly understand his goals or what cost he is willing to pay for them but himself. 

That said, everything you said is a loss for us, not a win. Personally I prefer a world where conflict is deescalating. Restarting the Cold War isn't my idea of a strategic victory. It could be Putin's though. As someone else mentioned his entire world of security was built around the Soviet KGB. He may be looking at the world and saying "you know what, the Cold War sucked but we were better off then than we are now." 

Putin has a lot of grievances, including being continually treated as a minor power despite sitting on the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. It's easy for me to see that he recognizes the SU had way more political power than Russia does in it's current form. That why negotiating on the INF was a bust. Putin likely wants to develop out his nuclear arms because they give him platform. 

[DirkDiggler]

12 hours ago, herkbier said:

All I’ve got to go on is open source intel; from that information I sorta agree. It makes me wonder if our intel on Russian (and probably Chinese) capes are a bit over optimistic. They might have some neat toys, but if the motivation and training isn’t there.. who knows. I really hope our intel community is able to capture all the trons from this war and do some good analysis.

Could be this.  Could be the Ukrainians are putting up a tougher fight than Russia expected.  Unfortunately could also just be sequenced phases in the Russian operational plan.

Interesting open source speculation about the motivation/morale or lack thereof of some Russian units involved in the attack.  My Estonian buddy is sharing lots of videos of large anti-war protests in Russia; hopefully that continues.

[Clayton Bigsby]

17 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Don't forget all them German helmets!

[uhhello]

2 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

Could be this.  Could be the Ukrainians are putting up a tougher fight than Russia expected.  Unfortunately could also just be sequenced phases in the Russian operational plan.

Interesting open source speculation about the motivation/morale or lack thereof of some Russian units involved in the attack.  My Estonian buddy is sharing lots of videos of large anti-war protests in Russia; hopefully that continues.

Almost 1800 arrests country wide.  We'll see how long the protest will persists. 

[Sim]

13 hours ago, hockeydork said:

Something just got blown out of the sky: 

Ukrainian Su-27 by SAM (blue on blue). No survivors.  

[fire4effect]

1 minute ago, Clayton Bigsby said:

Don't forget all them German helmets!

Germans give great helmet. Sorry just too easy to pass up.

[uhhello]

2 minutes ago, Sim said:

Ukrainian Su-27 by SAM (blue on blue). No survivors.  

Lots and lots of debate on who shot it down.  

[Prozac]

13 minutes ago, FLEA said:

That said, everything you said is a loss for us, not a win. Personally I prefer a world where conflict is deescalating. Restarting the Cold War isn't my idea of a strategic victory. It could be Putin's though.

Agree on this point. Lose/lose for all involved. Again, not the mark of smart or good leadership. Smart leaders look for the win/win. Understanding one’s adversary does not necessarily mean accommodating them. 

[hockeydork]

10 minutes ago, Sim said:

Ukrainian Su-27 by SAM (blue on blue). No survivors.  

Rest in peace, ing heros.

[DirkDiggler]

8 minutes ago, uhhello said:

Almost 1800 arrests country wide.  We'll see how long the protest will persists. 

It’s pretty unusual for Russia.  Russia’s security services are unfortunately brutally efficient in suppressing that sort of thing though so not holding out hope that it’ll force any course corrections on Putin’s part.

[Best-22]

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed pre-dawn fires just in time for daylight offensives? It wasnt what i was expecting, does anyone know enough about russian doctrine to say why that is? 

Are NVG/NODs less available to Russian units? Any other reason why they might be less comfortable than the US fighting at night? 

Or am I just way off and they actually are doing the bulk of their advance under darkness?

 

OPSEC permitting in your replies of course 

[Best-22]

Also, I'm seeing reporting that they have only committed 1/3 of the BTGs that were assembled at the border. If true, it seems they didn't learn from our experience in Vietnam; that once committed to military action it should be 100% effort and not an incremental ramping up of pressure.

It seems Russia has likely failed its day 1/2 objectives and its slower than they'd like. 

I'm seeing parallels but this time we are on the other side and I'm hoping Ukraine can capitalize on it while the west continues to support logistically. Too early to draw any meaningful conclusions though IMO. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Best-22

[fire4effect]

The lessons learned from this on combined arms operations will be staggering. So many systems/TTPs tested in a real world combat environment. For instance I'll be interested in how many aerial kills were A-A vs surface based systems. Clearly more lessons on preventing fratricide. As for the Javelin I can't think of a more realistic test than against a large, massed armored force.  Plenty of subjects to write on for Air War College and Command and General Staff College for years to come.

Now my biggest fear is Putin seeing himself getting bogged down in a slog in Ukraine and the protests really start getting going back in Russia and he starts becoming unhinged at the thought of losing his grip on power. If Hitler in April 1945 had access to the nuclear button what would have happened? I sure hope he isn't that crazy.

[Sua Sponte]

 

[DirkDiggler]

3 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

 

Hope it’s true and I hope the Ukrainians continue putting as many of these Russian pigs into the dirt as they possibly can.

[ecugringo]

There was an article I saw on MSN or somewhere how the Russians were being forced into this and they had mobile incinerators to cremate their dead on site to hide the true # of KIA.  Crazy to think about. 

[Prozac]

6 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

 

Holy shit! I realize this is one side of the story but if Russia lost anywhere near 80 MBTs in a 48hr period (against a supposedly far inferior force) that is astonishing. Makes one wonder if we’re witnessing the end of the tank as an effective battlefield weapon when confronted by infantry equipped with modern anti-tank weaponry. 

[Sim]

1 minute ago, Prozac said:

Makes one wonder if we’re witnessing the end of the tank as an effective battlefield weapon when confronted by infantry equipped with modern anti-tank weaponry. 

What you're witnessing is obvious disinformation by Ukrainian MoD. They've done same in 2014. I would not trust anything unless there is a video+picture footage.  

[Prozac]

9 minutes ago, Sim said:

What you're witnessing is obvious disinformation by Ukrainian MoD. They've done same in 2014. I would not trust anything unless there is a video+picture footage.  

You may be right. But by all accounts the Ukrainians have been making things far more difficult for the Russians than expected. The post conflict analysis will be a treasure trove as others have mentioned. 

[uhhello]

10 minutes ago, Sim said:

What you're witnessing is obvious disinformation by Ukrainian MoD. They've done same in 2014. I would not trust anything unless there is a video+picture footage.  

Baghdad bob style.  Don't blame em.  Gotta keep the citizen soldiers jacked up.  

[Guardian]

Prozac. Who is fondling Putins balls by discussing what is being done by both sides? Did anyone agree with him or praise him or advocate for him?

Just curious where your emotions are coming from that shut down debate from those you disagree with.

[FLEA]

22 minutes ago, Sim said:

What you're witnessing is obvious disinformation by Ukrainian MoD. They've done same in 2014. I would not trust anything unless there is a video+picture footage.  

Even then, I'm skeptical of the Su-27 shooting down a Su-35 video. 

[StoleIt]

1 hour ago, Prozac said:

 And while I agree that cutting Russia off from Swift should’ve happened yesterday, other measures taken are not trivial. Most importantly, NordStream II has been shelved and the Europeans are actively discussing how to wean themselves off Russian energy long term. 

Except we aren't talking about sanctioning/halting Russian energy exports. Sure, maybe Germany is putting a "pause" on it's pipeline...but it's just a pause. And our actions are none-existent for probably the worst reason...political. Biden knows his popularity would tank even more if gas prices went up higher (justifiably). So, instead, for domestic political points he avoiding really putting a rear naked choke on the Russians:

Quote

The US view of the necessity of keeping European allies on board, combined with a desire to mitigate domestic economic pain, drove the calculated decision not to directly target Russia's economic driver -- its energy sector, where EU countries were likely to oppose harsh sanctions. As a result, the bulk of Putin's exports and revenues remain in place, even as every other sector of the Russian economy is likely to come under new, and in some cases acute, strain.

Targeting Russia's energy sector also could have had an impact on US energy and gas prices because it could have driven worldwide energy markets upward.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/politics/biden-sanctions-russia-ukraine/index.html

I'd be willing to bet there are no long term US/Western sanctions against Russia (at least crippling ones) and Putin is betting on that COA as well. Temporary pain now for Putin, but he will still be supplying the LNG to Europe for decades while enjoying the view from his new loft apartment in Kyiv. And cutting out of Swift won't happen because everyone still needs to pay for that Russian LNG.

[Sim]

3 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Even then, I'm skeptical of the Su-27 shooting down a Su-35 video. 

As well as you should. It's a fake video using DCS World simulation. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Sim