Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[brickhistory]

For those eager for No Fly Zones or pushing Putin into a nuclear corner, just stop.

If any nation outside of Ukraine pulls a trigger on anything, that is an act of war.  If that's your intent, ok, are you ready for the full monty?  Air assets are supremely vulnerable.  Pretty easy to make them go boom on the ground.  And how long does it take to bring in the combined arms to make a real war happen?

Putin, for whatever his reasons, has pushed all in on this.  To think he won't pull the nuclear trigger if he loses or is cornered by outside nations is willful ignorance.  He's not likely to nuke London or Paris or Berlin, but any target in Ukraine or another none-NATO country is vulnerable.  Do you really think the West will respond with a nuke when it's not on them?  I don't.

Powerful megalomaniacs have a history of going scorched earth when they are cornered whether in a bunker in Berlin, a field in Belgium, or a steppe in Ukraine.

Toss the Ukrainians all the weapons and logistics they can use and more.  Sanction the sh1t out of Putin and comrades, make it hurt financially to them personally and this can stop.  Bleed him out and stack his casualties to the moon.  He will be bumped off by his own side.  If we turn him into a hero/martyr, we get a lot of that for us.  

Go full John Wayne and it won't end without a full, abrupt halt.  With other non-friendly nations watching and planning accordingly.

 

[Lecarpetron Dukemarriot]

17 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

https://theconversation.com/just-short-of-nuclear-the-latest-financial-sanctions-will-cripple-russias-economy-178000

"just short of nuclear"...That's an ominous description considering Putin is experiencing worldwide scrutiny and embarrassment. What will he do when pushed into the corner?

[Sua Sponte]

26 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

For those eager for No Fly Zones or pushing Putin into a nuclear corner, just stop.

If any nation outside of Ukraine pulls a trigger on anything, that is an act of war.  If that's your intent, ok, are you ready for the full monty?  Air assets are supremely vulnerable.  Pretty easy to make them go boom on the ground.  And how long does it take to bring in the combined arms to make a real war happen?

Putin, for whatever his reasons, has pushed all in on this.  To think he won't pull the nuclear trigger if he loses or is cornered by outside nations is willful ignorance.  He's not likely to nuke London or Paris or Berlin, but any target in Ukraine or another none-NATO country is vulnerable.  Do you really think the West will respond with a nuke when it's not on them?  I don't.

Powerful megalomaniacs have a history of going scorched earth when they are cornered whether in a bunker in Berlin, a field in Belgium, or a steppe in Ukraine.

Toss the Ukrainians all the weapons and logistics they can use and more.  Sanction the sh1t out of Putin and comrades, make it hurt financially to them personally and this can stop.  Bleed him out and stack his casualties to the moon.  He will be bumped off by his own side.  If we turn him into a hero/martyr, we get a lot of that for us.  

Go full John Wayne and it won't end without a full, abrupt halt.  With other non-friendly nations watching and planning accordingly.

 

You think China is going to allow some nuclear laden dust flying around their border because some dude with an ego is currently losing to, on paper, an inferior military and that’s the end-game option he chose? 

[brickhistory]

How would they stop him?

[Sua Sponte]

1 minute ago, brickhistory said:

How would they stop him?

The initial salvo, they won’t. He won’t get another opportunity because Russia will be glass.

[DirkDiggler]

  Putin's nuclear threats only work if we allow ourselves to be cowed by them. 

Ukraine is fighting with everything they have even with the knowledge that Putin could incinerate Kyiv, Odessa, or Kharkiv at a moments notice if he so chooses.  They're doing it because they'd rather fight and die free than live under the Russian boot.  Sweden and Finland just got threatened by Russia with unspecified "political-military consequences" if they join NATO.  The Finns and Swedes aren't bending over to Russia even with what's going on in Ukraine. 

All three of these countries are doing/saying these things without the US/NATO nuclear umbrella for protection.    

[FLEA]

Delegations from UKR and RUS will talk on Monday. This is a good sign we might see an end similar to Georgia. 

UKR not prepared to surrender but I'm curious if they're ready to concede Donbas and Crimea as well as potentially territory in between both. 

 

 

For those of you curious at how close we are to a nuclear war with Russia, please get with your Intel shops. There is some historic rhythm to this that we've seen before and is very concerning. 

[Danger41]

53 minutes ago, Buddy Spike said:

It's amazing the amount of gullible fighter pilots that should know better that are quick to push the "I believe button" over rumors heard from a friend of a friend.

 

Source is a pilot in the sister squadron flying missions in the Ukrainian AF. I don’t have the inside scoop but asking a few other sources, I don’t doubt the veracity of the source. You got some other info? Or are you one of those fighter pilots that just has all knowing ever present SA on all topics at all times?

[Guest LumberjackAxe]

1 hour ago, Buddy Spike said:

It's amazing the amount of gullible fighter pilots that should know better that are quick to push the "I believe button" over rumors heard from a friend of a friend.

 

Like the COVID thread a few weeks back when people legitimately believed the story from a satire news website that the F-35 mishap pilot had the time and mental capacity as he's crashing to transmit over the radio his feelings about chest pain and then blame the vaccine?

[Buddy Spike]

4 minutes ago, Danger41 said:

Source is a pilot in the sister squadron flying missions in the Ukrainian AF. I don’t have the inside scoop but asking a few other sources, I don’t doubt the veracity of the source. You got some other info? Or are you one of those fighter pilots that just has all knowing ever present SA on all topics at all times?

His source is ENJJPT students who heard it from a friend of a friend of a friend.

Yes, the entire Ghost story was made up by a gamer on Twitter.    It's based on a video game called Ace Combat.

No, I'm a fighter pilot with a bit of common sense and a healthy dose of skepticism.  Given what you know about the MiG-29 and the Russian Air Force, did such a story really ever make sense? Do you really think a retired Su-27 pilot hopped in a MiG-29 and suddenly had global SA in such an environment and accounted for 69% of the kills?

Stop being so gullible.  

 

[Clark Griswold]

49 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

For those eager for No Fly Zones or pushing Putin into a nuclear corner, just stop.

If any nation outside of Ukraine pulls a trigger on anything, that is an act of war.  If that's your intent, ok, are you ready for the full monty?  Air assets are supremely vulnerable.  Pretty easy to make them go boom on the ground.  And how long does it take to bring in the combined arms to make a real war happen?

Putin, for whatever his reasons, has pushed all in on this.  To think he won't pull the nuclear trigger if he loses or is cornered by outside nations is willful ignorance.  He's not likely to nuke London or Paris or Berlin, but any target in Ukraine or another none-NATO country is vulnerable.  Do you really think the West will respond with a nuke when it's not on them?  I don't.

Powerful megalomaniacs have a history of going scorched earth when they are cornered whether in a bunker in Berlin, a field in Belgium, or a steppe in Ukraine.

Toss the Ukrainians all the weapons and logistics they can use and more.  Sanction the sh1t out of Putin and comrades, make it hurt financially to them personally and this can stop.  Bleed him out and stack his casualties to the moon.  He will be bumped off by his own side.  If we turn him into a hero/martyr, we get a lot of that for us.  

Go full John Wayne and it won't end without a full, abrupt halt.  With other non-friendly nations watching and planning accordingly.

 

I'm not eager for it but I know it is the most feasible thing we can do to forestall & prevent defeat in this conflict and prove to the other aggressive authoritarian power in the East that if they try aggression, we will engage and not just leave our ally to their fate.

Honestly, why have we been spending billions and billions of dollars into this technology and weapons systems then like 22, 35, etc…?  To win the high end fight, we have envisioned the high end fight being in another theater mainly but destiny being the fickle woman she it, decided it would be in Europe versus our old adversary rather than our new one we would be tested.

We have the means, we have an ally under attack and we have a dangerous moment.  We have to prove to the authoritarian systems in the East and their allies that we will fight back, we will not allow our allies and those who aspire to join our systems, alliances and our way of life to be picked off one at a time.

[DirkDiggler]

Some good video footage this morning of a large Russian logistics column outside of Kharkiv completely destroyed by Ukrainian forces.  If the Ukrainians were able to leave pockets of forces along major LOCs supporting the Russian advance, this is going to get even worse for the Russians.  

[brickhistory]

31 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

The initial salvo, they won’t. He won’t get another opportunity because Russia will be glass.

Annnnddd...scene...

 

 

 

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by brickhistory

[Sua Sponte]

1 minute ago, brickhistory said:

Annnnddd...scene...

 

 

 

Not to mention, that if a Russian nuke going off in Ukraine will spread radioactivity to China, explain the logic of lots of Chinese nukes going off in Russia isn't worse?

Is it logical? Of course not, but it’s China. This is also the same state that was welding people into their homes when the pandemic started, after initially denying it was a new virus. If they don’t turn Russia into glass, expect a massive conventional assault against Russia. As we’ve already seen with their military against Ukraine, that won’t go well for Russia. 

[Prozac]

Let’s not forget that there is another potential adversary on the other side of the world that has similar designs on another young democracy. While the current situation gives one hope that China would be seriously rethinking any Taiwan invasion right now, we still need to keep a capable deterrent force in the Western Pacific. As much as I want to see Ukraine emerge victorious in this fight, I just don’t think that direct conflict between NATO and Russia is a valid or viable strategy. Even in the awful event that Ukraine falls, Russia has already lost the wider strategic clash. They will end up isolated, with a newly awakened and much stronger NATO on their doorstep. I support continuing to supply Ukraine with whatever weaponry and support will help them kill Russians and make Putin’s life more painful but I think we need to keep our powder dry at the moment. 

[ClearedHot]

Also, video and other reports of Russian armor stopped and out of fuel.  As has been noted Logistics wins wars and it appears Putin's general seriously underestimated the pace and size of this conflict.  While he is approaching on numerous fronts I would think that greatly complicates his logistical trail.

Russia has seriously under performed and others have noted they likely would not fair well in a Fulda Gap conflict with NATO.  Other reports show captured Russian soldiers who were conscripts and were told they were going on an exercise.  They could have been playing to the camera but they certainly seemed dismayed and distraught. 

The sanctions are already hitting Putin and Russians.  Many reports of Russians rushing to ATM machines and businesses asking to be paid in dollars.  With Putin increasing his alert nuclear status and his invasion turning into a nut roll, what options does he have.  Some have suggested he is mentally altered in the past year, with that in mind I hope we (the west), provide an obvious off ramp that stops his form being forced into a corner.

[ClearedHot]

1 minute ago, Prozac said:

Let’s not forget that there is another potential adversary on the other side of the world that has similar designs on another young democracy. While the current situation gives one hope that China would be seriously rethinking any Taiwan invasion right now, we still need to keep a capable deterrent force in the Western Pacific. As much as I want to see Ukraine emerge victorious in this fight, I just don’t think that direct conflict between NATO and Russia is a valid or viable strategy. Even in the awful event that Ukraine falls, Russia has already lost the wider strategic clash. They will end up isolated, with a newly awakened and much stronger NATO on their doorstep. I support continuing to supply Ukraine with whatever weaponry and support will help them kill Russians and make Putin’s life more painful but I think we need to keep our powder dry at the moment. 

We need India to speak up, they are a formidable force that has been a foil to both Russia and China.

[brickhistory]

1 minute ago, Sua Sponte said:

Is it logical? Of course not, but it’s China. This is also the same state that was welding people into their homes when the pandemic started, after initially denying it was a new virus. If they don’t turn Russia into glass, expect a massive conventional assault against Russia. As we’ve already seen with their military against Ukraine, that won’t go well for Russia. 

Sooo, WWIII?  With lots of nukes for everyone.

And that's a good thing?

I say again, give the Ukrainians all the weapons and logistics they can handle plus more.  Cut off Putin and, especially, his friends from their money outside of Russia, sit back and watch the show.

Start shooting as a nation-state and the stakes are raised exponentially.  Tell me again, what is our vital national interest in this?  I'm not a fan of spending our borrowed treasure and our kids' lives for something that's not our problem.

I'm sure not willing to have nukes going off.  That will tend to disrupt the twitter feeds...

But, I've got ammo and there's lots of game around here, so maybe...

[HeloDude]

2 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

We have the means, we have an ally under attack and we have a dangerous moment.  We have to prove to the authoritarian systems in the East and their allies that we will fight back, we will not allow our allies and those who aspire to join our systems, alliances and our way of life to be picked off one at a time.

So we shoot down Russian aircraft in Ukraine before we stop buying their oil? Not sure I think that’s the best COA.

My current opinion on the whole thing—I’m surprised that Putin went further than just the eastern regions that he declared “independent”.  I thought at the beginning this would largely be a similar replay of 2014 in the Crimea, in which Putin was successful, but it appears (as of now) that I was wrong.  I assumed he just wanted the eastern regions and then perhaps would go further west later in time.  That all being said, I still think this is Putin’s to lose, but it all depends on what his objectives are and how much resources he’s willing to use/lose.  
 

One thing I still believe is certain—Putin is a bad dude, and I don’t see him retreating in defeat any time soon.  He wants something, and I’m sure he’ll continue until he at least gets a piece of that something.

[jazzdude]

We have the means, we have an ally under attack and we have a dangerous moment.  We have to prove to the authoritarian systems in the East and their allies that we will fight back, we will not allow our allies and those who aspire to join our systems, alliances and our way of life to be picked off one at a time.

Do we have an alliance with Ukraine?

We do have somewhat aligned interests, though they aren't really the same interests. Ukraine wants to survive and keep their sovereignty. US and NATO want to keep Russia in check.

[Clark Griswold]

So we shoot down Russian aircraft in Ukraine before we stop buying their oil? Not sure I think that’s the best COA.My current opinion on the whole thing—I’m surprised that Putin went further than just the eastern regions that he declared “independent”.  I thought at the beginning this would largely be a similar replay of 2014 in the Crimea, in which Putin was successful, but it appears (as of now) that I was wrong.  I assumed he just wanted the eastern regions and then perhaps would go further west later in time.  That all being said, I still think this is Putin’s to lose, but it all depends on what his objectives are and how much resources he’s willing to use/lose.  
One thing I still believe is certain—Putin is a bad dude, and I don’t see him retreating in defeat any time soon.  He wants something, and I’m sure he’ll continue until he at least gets a piece of that something.

If necessary, yes.  They are selling us oil yes but we are giving them what they need, cash, and we can replace their oil quickly, not without some pain but yes we can.  Move fast and decisively.  
None of us were ever guaranteed to have a perfect carefree life with no inconvenience.  COVID and the initial response to it, say the first 6 months, were appropriate then we should have transitioned to living with it.  Likewise I would propose being honest with the people of the Western developed world, this will be expensive and inconvenient to shut off Russian oil and gas so long as Putin runs Russia and as long as they are attacking Ukraine but it is what is required to preserve what we have come to think of as the normal and default, a developed world mostly at peace where large nations don't change borders at will with force.  We have been navel gazing while that has been done with less dramatic fashion in the SCS with island building in disputed waters, atolls and reefs.  This is just uglier and 1,000 times more violent but the same thing.  We have to stop it here and now.
Returning to the idea of a no fly zone in Western Ukraine, I doubt if the AFs of multiple nations came together and established a mission, not just the US, that the Russian AF would not ingress and challenge it.  They would cede that airspace and not fly there.  Putin knows he has his hands full now, shooting down fighters from other nations that are not bombing his ground forces anywhere in Ukraine, that are not leaving the container they are patrolling and not attacking SAM and AAA sites elsewhere in the country would be foolish.  This gives the Ukrainians a safer area to fight from.

Do we have an alliance with Ukraine?
We do have somewhat aligned interests, though they aren't really the same interests. Ukraine wants to survive and keep their sovereignty. US and NATO want to keep Russia in check.
 

No but we signed a check for them back in the day with the Budapest Memo, with our support of Euromaidan movement.  I know we have no formal defense treaty and I know Ukraine is not a perfect democracy like our allies South Korea and Taiwan were not at the beginning of their democratic systems of governance.
We are not all powerful, we have limited resources but this fight is one to expend some of them.  This is not some amphorous mission where the unofficial goal is to change an ancient and radically different culture into a post-modern Western civilization, it is to stop conventional aggression by one nation-state against another.  We can do this but at a cost.

[afaf]

40 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

I'm not eager for it but I know it is the most feasible thing we can do to forestall & prevent defeat in this conflict and prove to the other aggressive authoritarian power in the East that if they try aggression, we will engage and not just leave our ally to their fate.

Honestly, why have we been spending billions and billions of dollars into this technology and weapons systems then like 22, 35, etc…?  To win the high end fight, we have envisioned the high end fight being in another theater mainly but destiny being the fickle woman she it, decided it would be in Europe versus our old adversary rather than our new one we would be tested.

We have the means, we have an ally under attack and we have a dangerous moment.  We have to prove to the authoritarian systems in the East and their allies that we will fight back, we will not allow our allies and those who aspire to join our systems, alliances and our way of life to be picked off one at a time.

I would say you're right that we need to show the allies we're serious, lest they think we're just using them as a shield.  If we're so serious about supplying military aid to them, we can't let their supply lines be cut.  Which I think is a real possibility from the Southern Front where it seems the Russians have had the most success.  If they succeed in cutting Ukraine in two with the force from the north all of our aid isn't going to make a difference to all those forces that got cut off.  That I think is how the Russians salvage this.  Link up in the middle and starve out half of Ukraines forces.  

An air umbrella could prevent that.  But given the heightened state of Russia's nuclear forces.  We'd definitely be escalating and that carries an enormous risk.  We have to decide if we're willing to let Ukraine devolve into siege tactics which implies way more humanitarian suffering.  I think if our administration sees that they make risk getting involved further, but at that point it might be too late for the air umbrella you suggest to have any effect, other than just pissing the Russians off more. 

 

 

[ClearedHot]

World's largest cargo aircraft was destroyed during a Russian attack on an airfield, Ukrainian minister says

[Tank]

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-tweet-going-toe-toe-vladimir-putin-resurfaces-ukraine-crisis-russia-1681266%3Famp%3D1

Edited February 27, 2022 by Tank

[FLEA]

Just thinking about these talks but I honestly think Ukraine is in a good position now. Hopefully they don't agree to a cease fire without a dedicated pathway to peace. That would only stall time for Russia to fix it's supply chain issues and reconstitute their forward deployed forces. 

Ukraine needs to be clear that they are going to continue to erode the shit out of Russia's forward arm until they are withdrawn a safe distance from their population centers.