Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[slc]

3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

For those who want a bit more depth here is a crowd sourced real time order of battle map.  Incidents are crosslinked with video and social media reports:

https://liveuamap.com/

 

Another interesting but far less organized source is Snap Map I don't use Snap Chat but this site allows you to click on a particular area and individual snaps the residents are postings.  Snapchat is obviously more focused on the younger crowd. I poked around yesterday and there were numerous posts from teenagers who fully grasp what is happening.

Also check out ELINT news feed on Twitter. Don’t need to sign up for Twitter as well

[DirkDiggler]

39 minutes ago, slc said:

Also check out ELINT news feed on Twitter. Don’t need to sign up for Twitter as well

That was a good recommendation, thanks for posting.  I personally don't use twitter at all (never understood why anyone would to be honest) but that feed is interesting/useful.  

[pawnman]

3 hours ago, LumberjackAxe said:

Like the COVID thread a few weeks back when people legitimately believed the story from a satire news website that the F-35 mishap pilot had the time and mental capacity as he's crashing to transmit over the radio his feelings about chest pain and then blame the vaccine?

But what if you're close personal friends with the squadron commander? 

[Lecarpetron Dukemarriot]

6 minutes ago, pawnman said:

But what if you're close personal friends with the squadron commander? 

I can confirm. I was in the back seat of the mishap jet. 

[Guest LumberjackAxe]

One good thing coming from this is the standard President Zelensky is setting for national leaders. Can anyone picture Biden or Trump or Obama saying something like "I need ammunition, not a ride," in the face of the enemy? I mean, how great would it be to see someone not just with military experience in the White House, but someone who is physically capable of handling a rifle? Damn.

[ClearedHot]

[Smokin]

If the current trend on the ground continues a couple more days, Ukraine should have a return of control to all of Ukraine as preconditions to peace talks.  The sanctions from the EU (finally) and the weapons being shipped to Ukraine (finally) should only make Ukraine's position better and better as time goes.  Maybe even the US could chip in something eventually when Biden gets back from vacation/cryo treatments.  If Putin wants to dig in, he might find himself in serious trouble at home.

[DirkDiggler]

35 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Oddly quite Odessa Control frequency, followed by strange flashes of light fence in.........."hey Co, you checked the NOTAMs right"?

[jazzdude]

Also, when the Ukraine government ordered that their adult males could not leave the country, I became less supportive of their “freedom” than before.  I have always been against conscription—it’s literally slavery.

It's no different than the selective service we still have on the books in our country, or the fact that the US had used conscription to achieve national goals until very recently in our history.

Ukraine is facing a fight for it's existence, and called up all the men of military fighting age to defend their country. Freedom isn't free...

[fire4effect]

Zelensky agrees to negotiate with Russia; Putin puts nuclear forces on alert (msn.com)

Sounds like Putin wants an "injury timeout" to slow the tempo and look like he's looking for a peaceful solution. Don't trust him at all.

[Danger41]

5 hours ago, Buddy Spike said:

His source is ENJJPT students who heard it from a friend of a friend of a friend.

Yes, the entire Ghost story was made up by a gamer on Twitter.    It's based on a video game called Ace Combat.

No, I'm a fighter pilot with a bit of common sense and a healthy dose of skepticism.  Given what you know about the MiG-29 and the Russian Air Force, did such a story really ever make sense? Do you really think a retired Su-27 pilot hopped in a MiG-29 and suddenly had global SA in such an environment and accounted for 69% of the kills?

Stop being so gullible.  

 

No point in going Point by point because this doesn’t matter. I’ll be Mulder, you can be Scully, and we’ll drink 10 beers about it someday.

But speaking of gullibility, I gotta dip out for a bit to extend my car’s warranty on my way to a guided Bigfoot sighting expedition. Great deal!

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, jazzdude said:

 

 

It's no different than the selective service we still have on the books in our country, or the fact that the US had used conscription to achieve national goals until very recently in our history.

Ukraine is facing a fight for it's existence, and called up all the men of military fighting age to defend their country. Freedom isn't free...
 

 

I’m against our selective service registration as well.  We’re not this great bastion of liberty that we like to sing about…

If you can’t get enough of your people to voluntarily defend your country, then your country isn’t worth defending.

[Waingro]

1 hour ago, Smokin said:

Maybe even the US could chip in something eventually when Biden gets back from vacation/cryo treatments.  If Putin wants to dig in, he might find himself in serious trouble at home.

So long as he doesn't withhold $400m worth of anti-tank weaponry to Zelenskyy in exchange for political dirt, it'll be better than last time around. 

[brickhistory]

And yet that aid, to include weapons, got there.  And Russia didn't take any parts of Ukraine then.

Unlike the last time Biden was point man for Ukraine and that administration sent blankets.  That cost Ukraine Crimea.  So far, Biden's given the ok to "a limited incursion." As well as cashing various 10% checks payable to "the big guy" from Hunter's Ukrainian adventures.

So...I'll take what are anti-tank rounds for a $1000 over What are blankies for $500.

Now do Afghanistan withdrawal planning...

Edited February 27, 2022 by brickhistory

[SuperWSO]

6 hours ago, Buddy Spike said:

No, I'm a fighter pilot with a bit of common sense and a healthy dose of skepticism.  Given what you know about the MiG-29 and the Russian Air Force, did such a story really ever make sense? Do you really think a retired Su-27 pilot hopped in a MiG-29 and suddenly had global SA in such an environment and accounted for 69% of the kills?

Stop being so gullible.  

The old timers will follow this, new guys will throw spears at me, but hear me out!

What if the Ghost of Kiev is actually a special ops fighter pilot? You know, your average Delta Force F-22 patch, finally going toe to toe with the Ruskies?

Feel free to discuss amongst yourselves.

[Prozac]

12 minutes ago, SuperWSO said:

The old timers will follow this, new guys will throw spears at me, but hear me out!

What if the Ghost of Kiev is actually a special ops fighter pilot? You know, your average Delta Force F-22 patch, finally going toe to toe with the Ruskies?

Feel free to discuss amongst yourselves.

Damn it. What’s the first rule of fight club? Opsec man! You’ve said too much already. 😎

[Waingro]

14 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

And yet that aid, to include weapons, got there.  And Russia didn't take any parts of Ukraine then.

Unlike the last time Biden was point man for Ukraine and that administration sent blankets.  That cost Ukraine Crimea.  So far, Biden's given the ok to "a limited incursion." As well as cashing various 10% checks payable to "the big guy" from Hunter's Ukrainian adventures.

So...I'll take what are anti-tank rounds for a $1000 over What are blankies for $500.

Now do Afghanistan withdrawal planning...

Go with a source for blankets. Any one source. 

[Sua Sponte]

 

[Lawman]

A whole lot of “Peace Keepers” getting ready to learn what every military professional with experience in it will tell you…. don’t fight in cities unless you absolutely have to.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[DirkDiggler]

2 minutes ago, Lawman said:

A whole lot of “Peace Keepers” getting ready to learn what every military professional with experience in it will tell you…. don’t fight in cities unless you absolutely have to.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

There’s been a lot of things about this invasion, just from an operational design standpoint, that really haven’t made sense to me.  I can’t figure out if Putin miscalculated that badly in the Ukrainian military capability/will to fight, overestimated Russian military abilities, honestly believed the Ukrainian civilian population would embrace the Russians, or some combination of the above.  Or whether Russian military leadership at the Operational and Tactical level is just that incompetent.

  Either way, I feel like the Russian overmatch in long range fires hasn’t been exploited well (F3 issues maybe?), their sustainment plan is pretty obviously non-existent, and the infantry/armor coordination is falling short.  Also seems like CAS and SEAD plans haven’t been executed well (interdiction maybe a little better, time will tell with regards to Ukrainian anti-armor/aircraft munitions resupply).  It seems like their higher command has decided that Kyiv is the Schwerpunkt (at least for now), but they’re not concentrating combat power there like I’d expect them to.  If the Ukrainian military really plays this right Kyiv and Kharkiv, amongst other cities, are going to turn into a Russian graveyard.

[tac airlifter]

41 minutes ago, Waingro said:

Go with a source for blankets. Any one source. 

“ Poroshenko said blankets and night-vision goggles from the USA are important, "but one cannot win a war with blankets!"” 

USA Today article from 2014.  

[uhhello]

7 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

There’s been a lot of things about this invasion, just from an operational design standpoint, that really haven’t made sense to me.  I can’t figure out if Putin miscalculated that badly in the Ukrainian military capability/will to fight, overestimated Russian military abilities, honestly believed the Ukrainian civilian population would embrace the Russians, or some combination of the above.  Or whether Russian military leadership at the Operational and Tactical level is just that incompetent.

  Either way, I feel like the Russian overmatch in long range fires hasn’t been exploited well (F3 issues maybe?), their sustainment plan is pretty obviously non-existent, and the infantry/armor coordination is falling short.  Also seems like CAS and SEAD plans haven’t been executed well (interdiction maybe a little better, time will tell with regards to Ukrainian anti-armor/aircraft munitions resupply).  It seems like their higher command has decided that Kyiv is the Schwerpunkt (at least for now), but they’re not concentrating combat power there like I’d expect them to.  If the Ukrainian military really plays this right Kyiv and Kharkiv, amongst other cities, are going to turn into a Russian graveyard.

Lots of video/photos of captured soldiers/looted equipment with old school analog radios and the like.  Think we might have over-estimated the Russian military as a wholes C2 structure

[uhhello]

I'm thinking we might want to allow him an out and allow his people to handle him directly.  He's getting pretty close to having nothing to lose at this point.  Could get sporty.  

[DirkDiggler]

26 minutes ago, uhhello said:

Lots of video/photos of captured soldiers/looted equipment with old school analog radios and the like.  Think we might have over-estimated the Russian military as a wholes C2 structure

There’s a cynical part of me that wonders if the Russians are utilizing an updated version of the penal battalion concept they used to fairly good effect in WWII.

 Push the conscript heavy/non Russian (Chechen/Donbas/Luhasensk) units forward to soak up the Ukrainian higher end anti-armor munitions (Javelin, NLAW, AT-14 etc), identify Ukrainian force concentrations, then use follow on echelons to overwhelm depleted Ukrainian infantry through massed artillery strikes and tank heavy mechanized units.  Hope that’s not the case.

Edited February 28, 2022 by DirkDiggler
Words are hard when brewery

[BFM this]