Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[waveshaper]

20 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

The Turkish drones Ukraine bought are inflicting a LOT of losses and casualties on the Russians.

Some info on this Turkish drone + primary ordnance it carries:

- 'MAM-L missile: The MAM-L is offered with high explosive fragmentation, thermobaric, and tandem HEAT warheads, probably with the anticipation that it might be used against a wider variety of targets. This is in line with other micro drone munitions, which make up for the small size of the warhead by offering specialized variants that are optimized for specific target types, as opposed to larger warheads which can be decent at both fragmentation and HEAT effect if the warhead is designed with a fragmentation rings.' Etc,etc.

Is Turkey's Military a Drone Superpower? | The National Interest

- Baykar Bayraktar TB2 Drone: 

Baykar Bayraktar TB2 - Wikipedia

[ClearedHot]

 

 

[arg]

5 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Ukrainians captured a SAM system.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pulled by a tractor, awesome.

[uhhello]

8 minutes ago, arg said:

Pulled by a tractor, awesome.

Could just as easy be a Ukrainian system pulled by a tractor.  Vis ID has got to be a bitch.  I can't imagine the radar warning gear and how it works for either side.  

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

You can’t stand for the values of individual liberty when you’re literally using the opposite to keep those values.

Incorrect. Many, many people have and do. You simply disagree with the argument.

 

1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

That negative impact could very well in turn negatively impact the US’s ability to promote liberty and freedom across the world.  So should the government force women to have children in order to set the birth rate to what the government needs/desires?

While absurdism is very useful in determining the realistic bounds of an argument, it's still absurdism.  So the line is between your absurd hypothetical and the reality of conscription. You are conveniently leaving out a core component of individual freedom, which is the ability to opt out. Leave, go somewhere that doesn't have conscription and respects individual freedom to the maximalist level you are suggesting. You may find it difficult to locate such a society, because such a society most likely exists only in hypothetical conversations. Just as my personal freedom to live on the moon is limited by the physiological realities of a lunar atmosphere, your desire to live in a society that both honors individuality and personal choice while shunning conscription in times of existential threat is limited by the sociological realities of human nature.

 

What you want is simply impossible with the tools you have. Therefore it is absurd. Perhaps one day it will not be.

 

1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

Just because this below was ordered by the state for the security of its nation, doesn’t change what it really was…

Retroactive takes on history always seem to compare what was done many years ago with what would be done today, or even worse, and a hypothetical society of peak enlightenment.

 

This is the same nonsense mindset that is used against the founding Fathers for participating in slavery, Churchill for his views of colonialism, or comedians for their sexist jokes in the 80s. 

 

What was the alternative in the 1930s and 40s, and what would have happened in conflicts before then? How many multicultural societies existed or had existed to the extent the United States had already diversified by then? What was the playbook for having a large population of citizens from a ethnically homogeneous country that had just declared absolute war and attacked your homeland?

 

It's incredibly conceited to use modern norms to judge the past, just as it's incredibly small-minded to use hypothetical best-case outcomes to compare to actual outcomes of previous campaigns. 

 

Slavery and genocide are wrong, but it takes a long time to overcome the brutality of nature and reach very unnatural philosophical conclusions. We are gradually working our way towards a set of ideals that are even today are still hypothetical. Just as Olympic runners get closer and closer to the 2-hour marathon, there is no reason to believe 2 hours is just a step on the way to 90 minutes.

 

Your Rand-ian belief in absolute freedom is a yet-unproven theory. We've done quite well getting closer to that goal, but many libertarians miss the irony in castigating socialists for seeking Communist Utopia while promoting an impossible utopia of their own. In your case, a land of absolute individual freedom that somehow survives the predations of the surrounding illiberal societies.

[herkbier]

Apologies for the dumb question..

Is this Ukrainian insurgency the first time a more developed country has engaged in guerrilla warfare? At least since WWII? I looked for a list of insurgencies and couldn’t easily find a comprehensive list. 
 

I ask because this seems to be the most unified defensive action I can recall and it’s obviously progressing much differently than even most of us would have predicted. 

[hockeydork]

28 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

Incorrect. Many, many people have and do. You simply disagree with the argument.

 

While absurdism is very useful in determining the realistic bounds of an argument, it's still absurdism.  So the line is between your absurd hypothetical and the reality of conscription. You are conveniently leaving out a core component of individual freedom, which is the ability to opt out. Leave, go somewhere that doesn't have conscription and respects individual freedom to the maximalist level you are suggesting. You may find it difficult to locate such a society, because such a society most likely exists only in hypothetical conversations. Just as my personal freedom to live on the moon is limited by the physiological realities of a lunar atmosphere, your desire to live in a society that both honors individuality and personal choice while shunning conscription in times of existential threat is limited by the sociological realities of human nature.

 

What you want is simply impossible with the tools you have. Therefore it is absurd. Perhaps one day it will not be.

 

Retroactive takes on history always seem to compare what was done many years ago with what would be done today, or even worse, and a hypothetical society of peak enlightenment.

 

This is the same nonsense mindset that is used against the founding Fathers for participating in slavery, Churchill for his views of colonialism, or comedians for their sexist jokes in the 80s. 

 

What was the alternative in the 1930s and 40s, and what would have happened in conflicts before then? How many multicultural societies existed or had existed to the extent the United States had already diversified by then? What was the playbook for having a large population of citizens from a ethnically homogeneous country that had just declared absolute war and attacked your homeland?

 

It's incredibly conceited to use modern norms to judge the past, just as it's incredibly small-minded to use hypothetical best-case outcomes to compare to actual outcomes of previous campaigns. 

 

Slavery and genocide are wrong, but it takes a long time to overcome the brutality of nature and reach very unnatural philosophical conclusions. We are gradually working our way towards a set of ideals that are even today are still hypothetical. Just as Olympic runners get closer and closer to the 2-hour marathon, there is no reason to believe 2 hours is just a step on the way to 90 minutes.

 

Your Rand-ian belief in absolute freedom is a yet-unproven theory. We've done quite well getting closer to that goal, but many libertarians miss the irony in castigating socialists for seeking Communist Utopia while promoting an impossible utopia of their own. In your case, a land of absolute individual freedom that somehow survives the predations of the surrounding illiberal societies.

 I don't always agree with you, but damn. That is one solid post. 

[uhhello]

13 minutes ago, herkbier said:

Apologies for the dumb question..

Is this Ukrainian insurgency the first time a more developed country has engaged in guerrilla warfare? At least since WWII? I looked for a list of insurgencies and couldn’t easily find a comprehensive list. 
 

I ask because this seems to be the most unified defensive action I can recall and it’s obviously progressing much differently than even most of us would have predicted. 

I definitely wouldn't call it an insurgency yet.  Not even close.  

[disgruntledemployee]

Apparently Putin has never seen Red Dawn.  What I'm seeing is an interesting mix of asymmetric warfare. 

My suggestions for Ukraine, hit harder and faster every day the during the peace talks... give no time or space to regroup.  Every break Putin takes he gets an update on losing more units.  Every 10 minutes he has some peon whispering in his ear on another strike. 

Oh, and as an interesting middle finger to Russian interests, we seize all real estate, boats, cars, businesses, and accounts tied to the russian mob, even if it means pending court cases might get hosed.  Arrest as many as possible.  Send a few to rot in Gitmo for a year.  Then seize everything tied to russian power players.  Squeeze them very hard.  Create internal Putin enemies.

Post hundreds more interviews of Russian POWs, showing humane care, and with them begging for forgiveness of listening to Putin.

[FLEA]

16 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

 I don't always agree with you, but damn. That is one solid post. 

One thing that will make all of us better Americans is when we face the reality that democracy (or a republic for that matter) is a heavily flawed and imperfect system. It is simply the best system human society has managed to imagine thus far and may be the best system realistically feasible without objective morality and universal happiness. 

[hockeydork]

4 minutes ago, disgruntledemployee said:

Create internal Putin enemies.

 

Question. At what point do the military higher ups say F this, and override his desires? 

Like an... I'm gunna take my entire fighter squadron I am commanding and tell them to defect to Romania. Is there a possibility of that at all? Or are they convinced to the core that what they are doing is the "right" side of history. I have seen articles that a lot of Russian units didn't even know they were going in. Thought they were just "drilling".....

[Prozac]

2 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

Question. At what point do the military higher ups say F this, and override his desires? 

Like an... I'm gunna take my entire fighter squadron I am commanding and tell them to defect to Romania. Is there a possibility of that at all? Or are they convinced to the core that what they are doing is the "right" side of history. I have seen articles that a lot of Russian units didn't even know they were going in. Thought they were just "drilling".....

Probably doesn’t end well for their families back in Moscow. Russians have a rich history of soaking up casualties. I don’t think this ends until they run out of: 1. Warm bodies, 2. Fuel, or 3. Money. On a side note, how the hell are Ukrainian air assets still operating effectively? The Russians should’ve had air supremacy on day one. Just another head scratcher in the long list of why the Russians are operating the way they are. Part of me wonders if this isn’t some sort of “soft” coup where Russian commanders are throwing the game, knowing that the embarrassment will likely force Putin from power. 

[uhhello]

2 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Probably doesn’t end well for their families back in Moscow. Russians have a rich history of soaking up casualties. I don’t think this ends until they run out of: 1. Warm bodies, 2. Fuel, or 3. Money. On a side note, how the hell are Ukrainian air assets still operating effectively? The Russians should’ve had air supremacy on day one. Just another head scratcher in the long list of why the Russians are operating the way they are. Part of me wonders if this isn’t some sort of “soft” coup where Russian commanders are throwing the game, knowing that the embarrassment will likely force Putin from power. 

Indeed.  30 ship helo assault from Belarus a few minutes ago.  No apparent air cover again.  Happy hunting to the Ukrainians 

[hockeydork]

10 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Probably doesn’t end well for their families back in Moscow. Russians have a rich history of soaking up casualties. I don’t think this ends until they run out of: 1. Warm bodies, 2. Fuel, or 3. Money. On a side note, how the hell are Ukrainian air assets still operating effectively? The Russians should’ve had air supremacy on day one. Just another head scratcher in the long list of why the Russians are operating the way they are. Part of me wonders if this isn’t some sort of “soft” coup where Russian commanders are throwing the game, knowing that the embarrassment will likely force Putin from power. 

Got it.

My inclination initially was that the Ukrainians would maybe have somewhat of an interesting advantage if Russia did control the skies ENTIRELY, because than they could basically shoot at anything and everything with ground based systems, and know that if it was in the air, it is most definitely hostile. Would be interesting to know how many aircraft being shot down are from land based systems/success rates of the Stinger. Helo squadron shows up to protect advancing armour, Ukrainian's pop off a couple stingers, helicopters scatter/leave/some get hit, than the Javelins/NLAWs come out and the 3 million dollar tanks get crippled by a Ukranian school teacher with a 100k missile on their shoulder. Awesome.  

IMO, Putin has dug himself into a very deep hole. He wants Ukraine, but he's grossly miscalculated how much they don't want him. He was banking on the intimidation factor, which has back fired now that he is losing valuable assets bogged down by cheap & easy to use missiles. He can't leave without looking like a failure, even tho he already looks like one, and if he stays he'll keep bleeding money/troops/valuable tanks/helos so long as Javelins and NLAWS are flowing, and thank god I don't see us stopping that supply.  He could take the territory by leveling it, but if he levels it, than getting it doesn't mean much, does it? I don't see this ending well for him, this ego boosting operation is a total backfire. Also, he really sucks at hockey. I thought I was bad.......

P.S. - If any Russian pilots read these forums, it ain't worth it...

[ClearedHot]

 

 

[fire4effect]

This should remind everyone from the biggest country (looking at you China) to the smallest that with a global economy if you REALLY piss off the rest of the planet to this extent it won't end well for you. 

[Lawman]

Found some very old Soviet Order of Battle references. No idea how accurate it is in the current environment but doctrinally an MRD (Motorized Rifle Division) has ~271 Tanks (13K troops total) and a TD (Tank Division) has ~328 (11K troops total).

It’s not.

Russians redesigned a whole lot of their ground doctrine following Chechnya.

https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf

https://info.publicintelligence.net/AWG-RussianNewWarfareHandbook.pdf

https://info.publicintelligence.net/AWG-RussianNewWarfareHandbook.pdf

That’s Low side. There is other stuff out there….

There is a lot of wide area discussion but essentially it focuses on the move to Battalion Task Group models (BTG). Actual Table of Equipment though is all over the place dependent on type of units.

Main tank rule is Battalion structure. They don’t intermix tanks below Brigade level so a battalion is going to be structured around a particular model (72, 80, 90). Brigades may have Battalions with different types (like a single 80 and 2x 72s). Within that individual Battalion you have 3 or 4 company models (10 MBTs per company with 1 for the Battalion Commander) based off what kind of parent brigade/division it’s intended to fall under. Tank Brigade/Division will usually prioritize 4 Troop tank Battalions (41 total tanks) to Infantry brigades so they can provide a Troop to each infantry Battalion with a single Troop in force reserve.


Which brings me to my main point….. Send More Javelins!


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[brickhistory]

19 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

I actually think this is a ridiculous take.

...

Nuking and innocent country would bring out the best in Americans, which would be the worst possible outcome for anyone in our way.

That's certainly one way to reply.  Not necessarily the way I would, but it is one way.

If Putin really is having his ass handed to him, he's fcuked.  Either he wins or he, literally, dies.  Combine that with the putting the Russian Empire back together fantasy, and there's some real bats in the belfry occurring.  If he's got nothing to lose, a tactical nuke inside Ukraine is a real possibility.  1 in 4 or so odds IMO.

I disagree with your analysis about world reaction.

First, global markets will absolutely crash should a nuke go off.  Crash into deep recession, if not full depression areas.  And that's in the short term before the humanitarian clean-up begins.  The crash will upend markets and the reserve currencies in use now.  

If a nuke goes off in Ukraine, not one nuclear power is going to respond with a mushroom cloud in Russia.  Such a retaliation means trading a Ukraine spot for L.A. or London or Berlin, etc with the next salvo to be launched from Russia.  Not gonna happen.

China will watch this passivity when comes to such stakes and will plan accordingly, very confident that Taipei isn't going to be traded for LA.

Middling countries will go as fast as they can to get nukes since the modern precedent has been set and that the only way to prevent such an attack on them is to have their own deterrent.  There will be more proliferation, not less.  

I hope Ukraine continues to bleed out Russia.  But Putin has lots more troops and equipment if he really decides to end this, but at the cost of weakening himself in other precarious areas of Russia.  Will he gamble?  Obviously, I don't know.

But I don't believe he will go out without a bang at the tactical level.  Or at least the order to make something go bang.  Having that order obeyed might be a different story.  One hopes so...

[SurelySerious]

Belarus positioning itself to be a forward deploy location for Russian nukes, per wsj article. Fun times!

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, Lawman said:

It’s not.

Russians redesigned a whole lot of their ground doctrine following Chechnya.

https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf

https://info.publicintelligence.net/AWG-RussianNewWarfareHandbook.pdf

https://info.publicintelligence.net/AWG-RussianNewWarfareHandbook.pdf

That’s Low side. There is other stuff out there….

There is a lot of wide area discussion but essentially it focuses on the move to Battalion Task Group models (BTG). Actual Table of Equipment though is all over the place dependent on type of units.

Main tank rule is Battalion structure. They don’t intermix tanks below Brigade level so a battalion is going to be structured around a particular model (72, 80, 90). Brigades may have Battalions with different types (like a single 80 and 2x 72s). Within that individual Battalion you have 3 or 4 company models (10 MBTs per company with 1 for the Battalion Commander) based off what kind of parent brigade/division it’s intended to fall under. Tank Brigade/Division will usually prioritize 4 Troop tank Battalions (41 total tanks) to Infantry brigades so they can provide a Troop to each infantry Battalion with a single Troop in force reserve.


Which brings me to my main point….. Send More Javelins!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Prozac]

Piecing information from multiple sources that have interviewed armed services committee members who received classified briefings today, it sounds like the Russians are adjusting strategy & preparing to use overwhelming force. Words like “disturbing” and “shocking” are being used to describe the short timeline that the pentagon thinks Ukrainian cities may fall. May be a difficult 24hrs ahead and the imagery is likely to get ugly(er). Here’s hoping the Ukrainians find many targets for their javelins & NLAWs and make this advance as costly as possible for Russia. As much as I admire his courage, it may be time for Zalenskyy to get out of Kyiv and set up a provisional government in the Western part of Ukraine. Hope I’m wrong & the Russians are stopped in their tracks. 

[hockeydork]

Putin won't use nukes if his brain is still on. If it's not, you can bet your ass the west will engage in WW3 the second a tactical nuke goes off. There is a lot of peaceful people....who won't be so peaceful once that bomb goes off. My parents and GF have been interesting to watch: non violent people who thought that war was something crazy people go chose, and now understand that sometimes it chooses you. 

 

I have zero ties to Ukraine. I've never rooted so hard for something in my life. And I watched the Rangers lose the 2014 Stanley cup (so I'll happily trade LA =p ). 

 

...joking. 

[Lawman]

Praise unto thee…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ecugringo]

10 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Piecing information from multiple sources that have interviewed armed services committee members who received classified briefings today, it sounds like the Russians are adjusting strategy & preparing to use overwhelming force. Words like “disturbing” and “shocking” are being used to describe the short timeline that the pentagon thinks Ukrainian cities may fall. May be a difficult 24hrs ahead and the imagery is likely to get ugly(er). Here’s hoping the Ukrainians find many targets for their javelins & NLAWs and make this advance as costly as possible for Russia. As much as I admire his courage, it may be time for Zalenskyy to get out of Kyiv and set up a provisional government in the Western part of Ukraine. Hope I’m wrong & the Russians are stopped in their tracks. 

17-mile-long Russian convoy reaches outskirts of Kyiv (yahoo.com)

 

17 Mile long convoy on the outskirts of Kiev.

[nunya]

27 minutes ago, ecugringo said:

17 Mile long convoy on the outskirts of Kiev.