Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[bfargin]

28 minutes ago, Smokin said:

I really hope you're right, but I think the last 24 hours have shown that Putin is switching strategies and is no longer trying to minimize civilian deaths.  He's shelling major cities with absolutely zero military value other than avoiding urban combat.  But, even with that as an excuse, that's a poor one as history has shown that shelled cities are just as defend-able as intact ones.  That does not mean that nukes are a logical next step, but the war going poorly for him does not mean the war will continue to go relatively well for Ukrainian citizens.  On the contrary, the worse the war goes for Putin, the worse it is going to get.  This is an ego driven war and a totalitarian leader with an ego in a losing war is a dangerous thing.

no doubt Putin got a hold of one of Hunter's crack pipes, but there is still no fargin way he goes nuclear!

[hockeydork]

15 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Well that died.....

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/28/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets-00012560

I was questioning the effectiveness of that decision. The Russians are going to win that war of attrition no matter what. Better to spend the money on MANPADS, even if it takes 3 shots to hit something. 

[Stoker]

2 hours ago, viper154 said:

Russia has lots of armor in storage to replace its losses. 

I wonder. The wheeled vehicles they're using for the actual invasion have their tires falling apart for lack of care and maintenance. How likely are vehicles in storage for the past 30 years likely to be anywhere near ready to roll into combat? And even if you get a far-outdated T-72 running, how effective will the second wave of unmotivated conscripts be, knowing they have even less chance the first wave (since the mothballed stuff certainly doesn't have any modern electronics or reactive armor)?

[DVT]

1 hour ago, hockeydork said:

100 percent, any country that doesn't wanna be Putin or Xis bitch had better hit the weight room.

You also need to understand that just because the US is not intervening with bodies, doesn't mean that we are not in the process of now crushing Russia long term. Anybody who previously was anti-renewable domestic energy, sure as shit is probably scratching their head and reevaluating their side of that debate. Expect an acceleration off of fossil fuels, expect nobody to want to get involved with Russia, expect the Russian state to become an old rabid dog: you don't want to get near it, but its to slow and weak to hurt you. Than once these cold war soviet relics die out, maybe they'll undergo a revolution. I've always wanted to visit Moscow, maybe towards the end of my life things will have changed. 

I'm surely scratching my head that people focusing on non-workable, affordable, or truly capable, renewable fuel sources somehow believe this strengthens their cause.  The current administration CAUSED the dependency on outside nations for fuel.  To now show that as your, "see, see, this is what we are trying to show you!" is a joke.

We have the ability to be energy independent and an exporter.  We actually were that way until the current clown show took office.  We have oil, natural gas, coal and plenty of it.  We just are not using any of it and smacking those that produce it.  Let's get the actual "adults" back in the room and get the domestic fuel sources going again.

In other news, the Valkyries out of Lakenheath didn't take long to put the term, "Have Gun, Will Travel" to use.  Forward deployed with almost all their toys.

Edited March 3, 2022 by DVT

[hockeydork]

21 minutes ago, DVT said:

I'm surely scratching my head that people focusing on non-workable, affordable, or truly capable, renewable fuel sources somehow believe this strengthens their cause.  The current administration CAUSED the dependency on outside nations for fuel.  To now show that as your, "see, see, this is what we are trying to show you!" is a joke.

We have the ability to be energy independent and an exporter.  We actually were that way until the current clown show took office.  We have oil, natural gas, coal and plenty of it.  We just are not using any of it and smacking those that produce it.

As a good friend of mine used to say, "don't p#ss on my head and tell me it is raining". 

We have fossil fuels that clearly need to be not squandered, for situations EXACTLY like this, so we can use it as leverage during times of crises instead of sending an 18 year old to get shredded on the Russian border. And I'll have to tell my buddies who took jobs at GE making turbines that they're all so stupid and are just wasting their time, just  a bunch of morons doing wicked CFD and stuff.  

And man, having the Indian point reactor  (example) operating right now so we could shift more of our natural gas to Europe would be a real shame. I'm really glad THATS closed. 

Take your political hat off, this isn't about politics. There is a fixed amount fossil energy underground in the US, yes I agree with you now is the time to leverage it to bail Europe out, but there less and less every day, it is not the future. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by hockeydork

[bfargin]

23 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

.......

Take your political hat off, this isn't about politics. There is a fixed amount fossil energy underground in the US, yes I agree with you now is the time to leverage it to bail Europe out, but there less and less every day, it is not the future. 

 

You're shitting us right? Our energy policy is totally about politics. it shouldn't be but, in the US everything is politics now. We still have decades and decades of energy in the ground under the US.

 

The newest Nuclear technology is the cleanest and most green energy source we have available right now, but sadly it's out of fashion.

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, hockeydork said:

Take your political hat off, this isn't about politics.

This is a joke, right?

“John Kerry fears Russia-Ukraine war will distract from climate change”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/john-kerry-russia-ukraine-war-climate-change

[Pooter]

Going full renewable is a great long term goal. 
 

But...

-it won't solve our near term geopolitical problems

-if we don't get buy-in from China it will have the equivalent effect on climate change of creating a "no pissing" section of the pool

-we need to completely re-think our power grid to include on-demand energy that can gap fill when renewables aren't generating

-if renewables are so economically competitive maybe the government could stop tampering with the marketplace through subsidies and incentives

[ClearedHot]

10 hours ago, viper154 said:

I think he miscalculated Ukraine's motivation of its people, and especially it’s president. I’m guessing he figured after a day or two of fighting the president would flee, government collapse, and everyone just give up.
 

Russia has lots of armor in storage to replace its losses. While their Air Force has decent numbers on paper their FMC status is questionable at best. (I have no behind the scenes knowledge, just open source I have seen in the past) They degraded the Ukraine Air Force in the opening rounds, and Russian aircraft continued to fall from the skies via SAMs and Stingers. With a partially conscript army it’s easier to replace a couple thousand bodies than several hundred aircraft. Might as well save the jets in case this escalates and he needs to defend the boarders, and go old school, sacrifice the bodies, use artillery and long range missiles.  

He definitely miscalculated and I think that further demonstrates a weakness in the current Russian military.  They have some very sophisticated equipment but thus far have very poorly integrated it into an effective combined arms force. 

We had an interesting project in war college where we were each assigned a country for a deep dive, I got Russia.  Eventually I was able to travel to Russia and visit several cities and ministries including the FSB and varies branches of the Russian military.

The project was not meant to develop a military intel assessment, rather broader "Freakanomics" approach that looked at economic/environmental/socioeconomic factors impacting the country and their ability to build and field a military force.  One of the biggest surprises to me was the impact of the declining population in Russia.  I won't regurgitate all of the numbers here but a quick snapshot form recent years illustrates their dilemma:

The current birth rate for Russia in 2022 is 11.617 births per 1000 people, a 2.42% decline from 2021.

The birth rate for Russia in 2021 was 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.

The birth rate for Russia in 2020 was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.

The birth rate for Russia in 2019 was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.

Russia conscripts approximately 400,000 (previously it was 700,000), military age males each year for a 12 month term.  Conscription is enormously unpopular in Russia because conscripts notoriously are subject to ill-treatment, malnutrition, and other abuse.  Popular discontent with the treatment of conscripts reached new heights in the mid-1990s, when Russia's military leadership sent poorly prepared conscripts to fight in the war in Chechnya. Thousands of conscripts died. 

The punch line is Russia currently has approximately 1.4 million live births each year with of course half being women.  That leaves 700,000 males to draw from each year.  With normal disqualification issues in a population distribution they rapidly approach the point where they don't produce enough males each year to sustain this system. 

This is not to say Russia does not have a powerful military, but it does place some context on just how stretched they might be at the moment and I would argue losing people is far more impactful than equipment at this point.

[hockeydork]

8 hours ago, bfargin said:

You're shitting us right? Our energy policy is totally about politics. it shouldn't be but, in the US everything is politics now. We still have decades and decades of energy in the ground under the US.

 

The newest Nuclear technology is the cleanest and most green energy source we have available right now, but sadly it's out of fashion.

i was referring to this statement he made: "non-workable, affordable, or truly capable, renewable fuel sources". As if people are just out digging holes in the ground developing renewables. I agree there is a magic to balancing short term need with long term goals, but if you think in 10 years time there will be less turbines in the ocean than now, and there will be less electric cars than there are now, please make sure somebody else is investing your money for you. If I am wrong, come quote me and I owe you a bottle of something. 

 

Back to Ukraine.....Unfortunately I think the fact that they have Nuclear plants in a war zone is going to hurt nuclear development for the world, even tho the chance of what is happening there happening here is slim. People are just so scared of it, even tho I work a mile from a reactor every day.  

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by hockeydork

[hockeydork]

Footage of the 225 burning from the link somebody else gave. 

[fire4effect]

23 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

Footage of the 225 burning from the link somebody else gave. 

Many years ago I saw her in OKC. Really a thing of beauty. The cargo deck felt like a gymnasium. Say what you will about the Russians but they do understand heavy lift. Another example is the MI-26 Helicopter.

[hockeydork]

6 minutes ago, fire4effect said:

Many years ago I saw her in OKC. Really a thing of beauty. The cargo deck felt like a gymnasium. Say what you will about the Russians but they do understand heavy lift. Another example is the MI-26 Helicopter.

I think it captures the crisis well. The willingness of the Russians to destroy a piece of Soviet and Russian achievement/heritage that is irreplaceable, for what? Perfectly captures the willingness to destroy their next door neighbors and themselves over foolish hollow goals, again for what?

 

She came to KSWF some time ago, I didn't make it over to see her, really regret it. 

[VigilanteNav]

Small data point in the overall fight but not a good thing when an Army 2 Star gets to push up daisies (or sunflowers) soon. (if true, but its popping on multiple sites)...  Top Russian general decorated for his role in annexation of Crimea reportedly killed in Ukraine - Daily News (txtreport.com)

On a downside topic: sad news out of Romania.  Looks like both the pilot in the MIG and then the SAR helicopter team went down.  Romanian fighter jet crashes - five crew members die - Daily News (txtreport.com)   

[fire4effect]

I don't have access to the BAM (Big Assed Map) showing (closer to real time) what's happening where in Ukraine but it appears the cities under greatest siege are close to unfriendly international borders or the Black Sea. In a nod to Captain Obvious much shorter supply lines and actually in range of systems located outside of Ukraine. If this is the farthest the Russians can push after this amount of time I don't see how they subdue the whole country. Short of the once unthinkable. Never been to Ukraine but looking at the map the Dnieper and associated lakes and bodies of water basically splits Ukraine down the middle and that certainly doesn't make it easier. I have no idea what can use it as far as navigability especially in wartime.

[FLEA]

3 minutes ago, fire4effect said:

I don't have access to the BAM (Big Assed Map) showing (closer to real time) what's happening where in Ukraine but it appears the cities under greatest siege are close to unfriendly international borders or the Black Sea. In a nod to Captain Obvious much shorter supply lines and actually in range of systems located outside of Ukraine. If this is the farthest the Russians can push after this amount of time I don't see how they subdue the whole country. Short of the once unthinkable. Never been to Ukraine but looking at the map the Dnieper and associated lakes and bodies of water basically splits Ukraine down the middle and that certainly doesn't make it easier. I have no idea what can use it as far as navigability especially in wartime.

I understand there was a belief in Blitzkrieg but I think we need patience to see where Russia is going and how this unfolds. 

We were not even close to taking cities every 2 days in Iraq/Syria. Mosul took months as we went house by house.

I'm not saying I'm not happy Russia is facing difficulty. But better to remain cautiously optimistic and see what unfurls. 

On another note, turns out the fighter deal with Poland fell through because Ukraine was under the false impression they would be allowed to fly and operate the fighters out of Poland. That was clearly not the case. 

 

[ClearedHot]

 

[ecugringo]

Interesting review of Russian tactics.  Better than the TEAM meeting i was on while watching it.

 

Russo-Ukraine War: What the West Doesn't Understand EP 3 - YouTube

[FLEA]

14 minutes ago, ecugringo said:

Interesting review of Russian tactics.  Better than the TEAM meeting i was on while watching it.

 

Russo-Ukraine War: What the West Doesn't Understand EP 3 - YouTube

Excellent analysis. Exactly what I was worried about and why I didn't want to get overly optimistic. 

[ClearedHot]

I don't know about you folks but I am sick to my stomach watching this unfold.  I am older than most of you and I remember the cold war, there was always an uneasy feeling in the background as we looked across the wall at the USSR.  I remember the joy and celebration when the wall came down, the hope, watching freedom on the faces of many formerly oppressed people.  There is no reset button, our relationship with Russia will obviously be very dark for years to come, in my lifetime things will never be the same.  I was watching CNN a little while ago and the story and picture of the Ukrainian Father crying over his dead son...I can't even process it thinking of my own son.  Like many of you I flew a lot of combat missions and saw a lot of horrible things, but this is fucked up and it is only going to get worse.  How will we be remembered by history?  As we sit by and let potentially millions be slaughtered.  I know there is no easy answer and we have peeled this onion every way possible but it is a hopeless feeling to watch this brave people getting mowed down.

[Sua Sponte]

Great…

https://apnews.com/article/cbd6eed3e1b8f4946f5f490afd06b4be

[hockeydork]

17 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

I don't know about you folks but I am sick to my stomach watching this unfold.  

I haven't slept right ever since it started. Literally watching human civilization go in reverse. Depressing as all hell. 

[pawnman]

On 3/2/2022 at 6:06 PM, ClearedHot said:

If Putin starts slinging arty and FAE's into urban areas will the world still sit idly by?  There are an estimated 3 million people still in Kyiv.  There is even concern Putin will resort to tactical nukes given his fumbling army, what happens then?

This sad story is FAR from over and it could get MUCH worse.

I don't see much evidence that any other nation is willing to commit to anything kinetic, even if Putin takes all of Ukraine and kills every man, woman, and child inside the borders.

[fire4effect]

1 minute ago, pawnman said:

I don't see much evidence that any other nation is willing to commit to anything kinetic, even if Putin takes all of Ukraine and kills every man, woman, and child inside the borders.

Pawnman, ClearedHot all others, I admit I sit here with my more than a couple drink(s) wondering how the hell it got to this point. Do we allow Putin to use nuclear blackmail to keep us on the sidelines ad infinitum and if he gets away with it here where does he stop? I HATE to think we as NATO in general and we as a country in particular have no choice now but to take him the fight directly. God help us one and all. 

[hockeydork]

9 minutes ago, fire4effect said:

Pawnman, ClearedHot all others, I admit I sit here with my more than a couple drink(s) wondering how the hell it got to this point. Do we allow Putin to use nuclear blackmail to keep us on the sidelines ad infinitum and if he gets away with it here where does he stop? I HATE to think we as NATO in general and we as a country in particular have no choice now but to take him the fight directly. God help us one and all. 

It sets a dangerous precedent for sure. Got nukes? Do whatever you want, nobody can touch you.

Crushing the Russians economically needs to be priority number 1 until their people wake the up, however long it takes.