Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[goingkinetic]

5 minutes ago, waveshaper said:

The WTI futures market opened at 18:00 EDT and in the first 28 minutes WTI hit a new high of $130.33 per BBL (up $15.00 since Fridays close). 

Crude Oil Price | WTI Price Chart - Investing.com

I bet it hits $200 before the administration backtracks on its energy policy.

[dudebro]

Less walls of text more pics of hot eastern european chicks please

[hockeydork]

If anybody played any part in stinger program/development, hats off to you. Quality work on display.

[DirkDiggler]

26 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

If anybody played any part in stinger program/development, hats off to you. Quality work on display.

Looked like a bigger SAM than a MANPAD to me (SA-8 or 11 maybe?).  Either way, agreed on the Stingers, they’re stacking up some Russian pigs and hardware over there.

[hockeydork]

25 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

Looked like a bigger SAM than a MANPAD to me (SA-8 or 11 maybe?).  Either way, agreed on the Stingers, they’re stacking up some Russian pigs and hardware over there.

We should be pillaging Europe to get them as many of whatever it is as possible than. Clearly the Russians do not own the skies.

[Hunter Rose]

1 hour ago, hockeydork said:

If anybody played any part in stinger program/development, hats off to you. Quality work on display.

 

More posts like this of watching Russkies burn and less posts about who has the bigger geopolitical phallus. The arguments of the last 15 pages have definitely culminated and it's time to move onto a new branch/sequel.

More posts about Ukrainians killing Russians and how we can stick it to Putin/Russia now and in the future please!

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by Hunter Rose

[M2]

[M2]

[Waingro]

7 hours ago, goingkinetic said:

I bet it hits $200 before the administration backtracks on its energy policy.

Which policies, specifically? There are a shitload of oil leases that are unused, and a whole lot of wells that aren't producing. Which was the case both before the Biden administration, and now today. I'd be more eager to criticize any executive branch energy policy if we were actually operating anywhere near capacity, and were somehow hamstrung because of it.

[goingkinetic]

2 hours ago, Waingro said:

Which policies, specifically? There are a shitload of oil leases that are unused, and a whole lot of wells that aren't producing. Which was the case both before the Biden administration, and now today. I'd be more eager to criticize any executive branch energy policy if we were actually operating anywhere near capacity, and were somehow hamstrung because of it.

Keystone pipeline ring a bell? My grandfather used to own an oil well in Los Angeles. He sold it to the city for $1 because it wasn’t profitable due to production declines. Unused oil leases doesn’t equate to profitable production. However, with oil climbing this high I bet you start seeing some of those unused leases go back into production.

[ClearedHot]

6 hours ago, Waingro said:

Which policies, specifically? There are a shitload of oil leases that are unused, and a whole lot of wells that aren't producing. Which was the case both before the Biden administration, and now today. I'd be more eager to criticize any executive branch energy policy if we were actually operating anywhere near capacity, and were somehow hamstrung because of it.

Are you related to Circle Back Jenn?  She has been spewing that same lie for months.  This narrative is a talking point right out of the Pravda playbook, Putin himself must smile when he reads it.  Lets get to some facts about all of the "unused leases".

- The law already requires companies to either produce oil and/or gas on leases or return the leases to the government – the so-called “use it or lose it” provision – generally in the first 10 years.

- When a company acquires a lease, it makes a significant financial investment at the beginning of the lease in the form of a non-refundable bonus bid and pays additional rent until and unless it begins producing.

- For federal onshore, the Mineral Leasing Act prevents any one company from locking up unproductive excessive federal acreage.

- Developing a lease takes years and substantial effort to determine whether the underlying geology holds commercial quantities of oil and/or gas. The lengthy process to develop them from a lease often is extended by administrative and legal challenges at every step along the way.

This administration discouraged American energy. For more than a year it has halted new federal leasing – key to future energy investment and production. It canceled energy infrastructure, blocked development in parts of Alaska, entertained new taxes to punish the U.S. energy industry and chilled future investment by signaling that oil and gas wouldn’t be part of America’s future energy mix.  All last summer, the administration called on OPEC+ to increase its production more rapidly in the face of rising energy costs, bypassing American producers. 

Don't believe what either party says at that podium, do your own due diligence as am American and get to the facts.  This administration has done everything within its executive, legislative and judicial power to thwart American energy production and the lease argument is simple propaganda meant to distract all the folks too lazy to look up the facts.

A federal judge canceled major oil and gas leases over climate change

[goingkinetic]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oil-traders-200-per-barrel-report

[hockeydork]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

 

This administration discouraged American energy. For more than a year it has halted new federal leasing – key to future energy investment and production. It canceled energy infrastructure, blocked development in parts of Alaska, entertained new taxes to punish the U.S. energy industry and chilled future investment by signaling that oil and gas wouldn’t be part of America’s future energy mix.  All last summer, the administration called on OPEC+ to increase its production more rapidly in the face of rising energy costs, bypassing American producers. 

s administration has done everything within its executive, legislative and judicial power to thwart American energy production and the lease argument is simple propaganda meant to distract all the folks too lazy to look up the facts.

A federal judge canceled major oil and gas leases over climate change

I don't think they discouraged American energy, I think your letting your political bias bleed into it.  They def ill timed it tho, at least in NY. Big projects take time, a big error in NY at least was closing Indian Point nuclear plant point BEFORE the offshore was ready to go, in which case I concur with you was pure stupidity. So now we are stuck in an in inconvenient transition point with no alternative. I think Germany maybe petitioning to keep one of their nuclear plants running. 

[NKAWTG]

There is a real missed opportunity to blame inflation and oil prices, etc. on Russia.  Make an argument that the higher prices are needed to combat Russian influence on the energy markets.  Circle back to the previous administration's energy policies and take credit for them.  

[pawnman]

14 minutes ago, NKAWTG said:

There is a real missed opportunity to blame inflation and oil prices, etc. on Russia.  Make an argument that the higher prices are needed to combat Russian influence on the energy markets.  Circle back to the previous administration's energy policies and take credit for them.  

Isn't that what they are doing? I know Biden floated a plan to bring manufacturing back to the US.

[nsplayr]

It's easy to get caught up arguing about this project or that project, but the macro trends are very clear. The U.S. has massively ramped up domestic fossil fuel production and exports, and our reliance on foreign fossil fuel imports has dropped significantly. We're a net exporter of fossil fuels as of 2020.

However, not all fossil fuels are interchangeable obviously, so there's some stuff we import because we have less of it than we need or it's cheaper to import than to produce domestically to meet our needs 100%. Repeal the Jones Act for one. Overall though fossil fuels are a giant global commodity and there's not some lever on the Resolute Desk that makes oil (or consumer gasoline) prices go up or down.

Fair arguments can be made that Dem administrations typically try to reduce fossil fuel production/usage at the margins due to climate change concerns and GOP administrations usually don't, but the big numbers don't lie, see the graph below. 2008-2020 was 2/3 controlled by Democrats and our domestic production went up very significantly and our net imports dropped very significantly.

BL: Obama admin recently oversaw very substantial domestic fossil fuel production increases! Trump admin also did this. Good work.

Long-term, I'm personally in favor of an energy abundance policy - we need *massively* more energy as a human species and we can do a lot of amazing things if we're able to achieve that. Space colonization, significantly more food production, large-scale ocean water desalination, and direct carbon capture all become much more commercially viable with energy abundance. That means way more nuclear (ideally figuring out fusion), way more solar/wind/tidal/geothermal, and yes also some fossil fuels so long as you can price in or mitigate the negative externalities of carbon emissions and other pollution. If you have direct carbon capture powered by fusion for example, and other emissions controls such that net emissions/pollution are negative, burn all the fossil fuels you want! It's also currently impossible to launch rockets without fossil fuels so even in the above fantasy example, there will likely always be a place for extremely energy-dense types of fuels.

Medium-term, I'd love to rely less on OPEC dictators + Putin and would rather see us put more effort into energy sources that are more sustainable. Nuclear + renewables > domestic/friendly-nation fossil fuels > hostile-nation fossil fuels while we still need them, which we do. We are well on way down this track.

Short-term, we still import fossil fuels from Russia and we should stop. Their illegal and immoral war in Ukraine is a travesty and we should punish them as directly as possible without risking significant further escalation or loss of American lives. This will cause pain at the pump and we should do whatever we can to alleviate that, e.g. temporary federal gas tax holiday, increasing any domestic production that we can, and leaning on the rest of OPEC+ to pump more. Not to detract from efforts to move toward abundant, sustainable energy as described above, but we can and should do both.

Source for the graph below.

Edit to add: f*ck Putin, long-live Ukraine...to stay on topic 🇺🇦

Edited March 7, 2022 by nsplayr

[kaputt]

I agree with your post @nsplayr about the need to embrace energy abundance, but I don’t think the signs are pointing to this administration increasing domestic oil production as part of that solution. Biden is flying to Saudi Arabia soon, so here we go again embracing another autocratic regime for oil.

I posted a link in the “Next President” thread so as not to try and distract this thread, but so far this administration seems hell bent on their anti domestic oil position. They’ve got some nice top cover from the new war for right now, but time will tell if this ends up being the hill they die on. Elon Musk saying we need to drill oil now should be a wake up call. The US populations anger isn’t going to stay directed at Putin if in 6 months people in big cities are paying $7 a gallon and even middle America is at $5.

 

[ecugringo]

As mentioned there are a lot of factors in the price of oil.  It is a globally traded commodity and the US doesnt dictate how much Oil Exxon can extract from the Permian or Bakken.

What they can do is force heavy taxes on these companies for their green policies.  Just recently P66 and Holly Frontier shut down 2 refineries and they will be converted to bio diesel.  There is a lot of debate over how green bio diesel is and how good it is for engine components.  Nevertheless, Holly saved over $60mm/yr in taxes by doing this.  There are also fees and taxes for green house gas emissions.

There are incentives for auto makers to make more efficient vehicles or EV.  I think Ford will be 60% EV by 2035.  Reservations for the E F-150 sold out in 15 minutes.  Its an $80k truck.

The state level has its own set of penalties.  In CO they want to limit how far you can put a well from a structure.  SOme of hte proposals would basically outlaw any new wells based off this distance.  O&G is still a major industry in teh state and is a huge revenue source for education.  Too bad a lot of people there are far left and want to shut it down.  I had a mid school teacher tell me at a neighborhood holiday party that I can just work in another industry.

NY and CA want to ban gas ranges and gas heating.  More states will join.  But we have oceans of natural gas under the US.  We dont have the infrastructure to make it usable at the moment.  Politicians will add red tape as their constituents wish making capital investment more and more difficult.

Good luck trying to start a nuclear plant.  Interesting note.  CA shut down their nuke plants but buys energy from Palo Verde in AZ.

I think you could easily replace coal with Natural gas which is 40-60% cleaner but the incentives being pushed for solar/wind will make it too challenging.

Sad thing is there are great jobs in Oil and Gas.  I have done better than I ever thought I could.  All i needed was military experience since nobody wants to go into this industry.  I work with a lot of engineers from very prestigious schools.  A lot are Aero Engineers.  THey tell me Exxon pays over 2x what Lockheed, Boeing etc....pay. 

[VMFA187]

37 minutes ago, ecugringo said:

Sad thing is there are great jobs in Oil and Gas.  I have done better than I ever thought I could.  All i needed was military experience since nobody wants to go into this industry.  I work with a lot of engineers from very prestigious schools.  A lot are Aero Engineers.  They tell me Exxon pays over 2x what Lockheed, Boeing etc....pay. 

As a former Boeing F-15C CIP, and now an LM F-35 CIP... Tell me more! Where are these jobs located and what is an average day?

I love fossil fuels, powered my time in the Hornet and my affinity for fast toys - Both two and four wheels!

[BashiChuni]

Presented without comment

 

 

[ecugringo]

16 minutes ago, VMFA187 said:

As a former Boeing F-15C CIP, and now an LM F-35 CIP... Tell me more! Where are these jobs located and what is an average day?

I love fossil fuels, powered my time in the Hornet and my affinity for fast toys - Both two and four wheels!

Houston for the most part.  Its not that exciting though.  Working with pipelines etc..There aren't as many as there use to be.  I work for a tech vendor, its been fun.  Not without its challenges but better than anything else I've done.

[DirkDiggler]

Unconfirmed reports coming out on Twitter night now saying a Ukrainian Marine unit conducted a raid on Kherson airfield and destroyed around 30 forward deployed Russian helicopters.  Here’s to hoping it’s true.

[DirkDiggler]

 

Good video of a destroyed Russian fuel convoy.

[hockeydork]

3 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

Unconfirmed reports coming out on Twitter night now saying a Ukrainian Marine unit conducted a raid on Kherson airfield and destroyed around 30 forward deployed Russian helicopters.  Here’s to hoping it’s true.

Hell of a lot easier...and cheaper... to hit em when their on the ground eh?. I just googled an rpg-7 rocket.......a whopping 200-500 a round. Loads cheaper than a stinger. 

[Waingro]

8 hours ago, goingkinetic said:

Keystone pipeline ring a bell? My grandfather used to own an oil well in Los Angeles. He sold it to the city for $1 because it wasn’t profitable due to production declines. Unused oil leases doesn’t equate to profitable production. However, with oil climbing this high I bet you start seeing some of those unused leases go back into production.

Keystone pipeline sends about 850K BBL a day. Or did you mean the Keystone XL? I'm not too sad about Canadian product having to take the long way to refineries; the XL would have helped out Canada for sure, not a lot of impact for the U.S.

The post from nsplayr above is way more comprehensive, but domestic crude production is presently higher than it was at the beginning of Trump's presidency (by a large amount) and also at the end of Trump's presidency (source).

So again, which executive branch energy policy is hurting us right now? I'm not the biggest Biden fan, but I just don't see that he's the boogeyman here.