Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[HeloDude]

29 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

I would not respond with nukes. I would absolutely retaliate with nukes against a nuclear attack on the United States, and I would consider it a reasonable response to a nuclear attack on a NATO ally, though not a mandatory response. We do not need nukes to destroy a country.

 

I would, however, respond with a declaration of war, a total blockade of all commerce with Russia (to include sanctions against any country that continues to support Russia), a No fly zone anywhere we could install one, and the explicit condition that the war ends upon the surrender or death of Putin and the officials we deem instrumental to the usage of nukes, as well as the denuclearization of Russia. Of course all the propaganda we put out would be that we are at war with the Putin regime, not the Russian people, yada yada yada. We have to have a clear objective (removal of Putin, denuclearization of Russia), as well as a plan to quickly and aggressively reintegrate the Russian people with the world economy at the end of the war. The Russian people are not Afghans, they were already heavily enmeshed in Western culture, and intimately tied to the rest of the world.

 

Is it possible that Russia responds to that declaration with a nuclear attack against the United States? It is. It's also possible that Putin loses his mind and launches a new anyways. We've had to live with the realistic threat of nuclear war since we invented the damn things. 

 

But the nuclear peace that followed world war II was not one based on the appeasement, it was based on strength. In fact, we have spent decades since then appeasing Russia in the hopes that they would become something they have not. And here we are.

 

As to the support of the American people, I might have sided with you prior to the invasion, but seeing the response of the citizenry of the world has given me pause. I did not expect the world to support Ukraine to the extent that they have, and I suspect that a nuclear attack would rouse something in all of us we forgot was there.

Well, I can’t disagree on using nukes against Russia if they nuke us…you know, The United States of America.  The country is care about, pay taxes, serve, etc. 

As for declaring war against Russia for launching a nuke against Ukraine…why? Why is that your red line vs what they’ve already done?  If they kill a hundred thousand Ukrainians using conventional weapons then why wouldn’t you declare war then? What if they kill a million?  And yes, if we declare war against Russia for not attacking the US, then we’re asking for pain, when we don’t have to.  

Again…our greatest concern right now should be our economy, but to many it appears to be the well being of a European country on the other side of the globe.  And for those that say “it can be both”…this is how you get yourself over $30T in debt.  

[FLEA]

7 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

Yeah dude, war sucks. Is your new argument that I haven't adequately put together a detailed plan of action for the entire armed forces of the West to employ against Russia? Shall I prioritize the targets for the initial strike as well?

 

It's ironic that you think my position is poorly thought through, yet yours has absolutely no consideration for what the long-term effects of permanent appeasement entails. Just as long as your family doesn't have to move into the path of a nuke, right?

 

The failing of your position is that there is a winning possibility. There isn't. There's just a series of shitty situations. You believe that staying out of Ukraine means only the Ukrainians will suffer and the rest of the world will bop along happily. I disagree. I think many generations will suffer if the United States is unable to respond to a nuclear attack by one country on another. 

Ok, you are clearly incapable of reading a post and responding to the actual content. If you haven't realized by now that my point is it's not about defending Ukrainians, then your ability to read is beyond my ability to fix.

Your point is about enforcing global rulesets for the offensive use of nuclear weapons. A structure for that already exist. It's called US nuclear umbrella agreements. Hint hint. Ukraine is not one of them. 

You also never explained where all your furor for sovereignty and anti authoritarianism was in the last 70 years when the US clearly did not act anti-authoritarian or pro-sovereignty. Was waiting for that one. 

[FLEA]

8 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

This is what I was alluding to earlier. You would need the whole world to collectively be like "oh absolutely not" if Russia did use one, including China/India/Pakistan. Which would be possible and the best solution, but its an unknown that we could all collectively band together like that. I'm not a two wrongs make a right person usually, but I think there is validity to making it clear that if he uses a small nuke in Ukraine, it is very likely we will supply them with something comparable to shoot back at the Russians, in Ukraine. I'm not saying we should go nuking Moscow, but letting the bully use one and letting him not have to pay the price? Disaster. We will end up paying that bill at some point in the future. 

If you let the narrative of using tactical nukes offensively and successfully, to be written into history. We're all screwed. The next conflict will just be countries slinging tactical nukes at each others bases. 

The whole world wouldn't be. In fact, many smaller nations have strategic interest in upsetting the nuclear rules based order because they gain more out of possessing nuclear weapons than larger states. You would probably get NATO on board. I don't think you would see many other players. 

Another fun fact, Russia possesses enough nuclear weapons to put 3 in every US, Canadian and European population center and still retain a 50% reserve. It would be a loss of 500 million lives instantly, plus additional from fallout and nuclear winter. They also possess an assured second strike capability so total prevention is impossible. 

 

[hockeydork]

1 minute ago, FLEA said:

The whole world wouldn't be. In fact, many smaller nations have strategic interest in upsetting the nuclear rules based order because they gain more out of possessing nuclear weapons than larger states. You would probably get NATO on board. I don't think you would see many other players. 

Another fun fact, Russia possesses enough nuclear weapons to put 3 in every US, Canadian and European population center and still retain a 50% reserve. It would be a loss of 500 million lives instantly, plus additional from fallout and nuclear winter. They also possess an assured second strike capability so total prevention is impossible. 

 

I know which is why entertaining the idea of them using a "small?" one, a "medium?" one, or whatever in Ukraine unchecked is a freaking disaster. This is nuclear weapons, appeasement has no place. We've been riding high on the idea that a nut job won't ever get their hands on them, which was always a statistical impossibility. The amount of destruction you just noted, is exactly why we need to make it clear that we all lose everything if this gets escalated to the level of employing nukes. I want that Russian commander to KNOW that if that nuke goes off in Kyiv, one WILL go off over his own boys. Because that is the ONLY way to get him to not agree to push that button. 

 

I think those 500 million people are more likely to die if we shrug and walk away. Maybe not now, but they'll die eventually when the next conflict kicks off and nuclear weapons is a main ingredient for the participants. 

BTW, there is a high probability that humanity will wipe itself out with nuclear weapons, or at least send civilization back a couple hundred years. To think that we aren't "dumb" enough to do it is shortsighted. War itself is dumb, it is a logical fallacy, yet we do it all the time. We have gotten smarter, and as a world much more tolerant, and wars have for the most part gotten less brutal, but underneath it all were all still animals capable of doing very dumb things. It's all still there under the facade. 

Putin could have challenged Zelensky to a game of darts to decide the fate of Ukraine. Nope, we're animals, we love to resort to the extremes unless a bunch of other animals are around to remind it isn't a good idea. 

[Lord Ratner]

53 minutes ago, FLEA said:

You also never explained where all your furor for sovereignty and anti authoritarianism was in the last 70 years when the US clearly did not act anti-authoritarian or pro-sovereignty. Was waiting for that one. 

How old do you think I am? Further, are you implying ones views are not subject to evolution? 

 

Seriously, your arguments are absurd and emotional. 

[pawnman]

3 hours ago, FLEA said:

So which US city are you willing to lose and are you volunteering to move your family there before we go through with this? 

I'd prefer not to lose any, but the effect will be the same once every nuclear country knows that they can blockade us by threatening a nuclear war.

Edited March 22, 2022 by pawnman

[fire4effect]

Biden confirms Russia used hypersonic missiles, warns of coming cyberattacks on US: Live Ukraine updates (msn.com)

Kinzhal as I read it can carry either nuclear or conventional warhead. Scary not even knowing what's coming your way in the relatively brief time it could be tracked.

Edited March 22, 2022 by fire4effect

[Prosuper]

On 3/20/2022 at 11:45 AM, HeloDude said:

This doesn’t really sound like much of a “democracy” to me.  
 

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/zelensky-suspends-opposition-parties-in-ukraine-with-russia-ties/

Our own history during the Civil War when Lincoln suspended Habeas Corpus between DC and Philly and he shut down over 300 newspapers. 

[HeloDude]

23 minutes ago, Prosuper said:

Our own history during the Civil War when Lincoln suspended Habeas Corpus between DC and Philly and he shut down over 300 newspapers. 

Oh don’t get me started on Lincoln…

I grew up in midwest and was basically taught that he was a saint.  He was very tyrannical.  I remember 10 years ago when conservatives said Obama was the most tyrannical president we ever had and then bragged how great Lincoln was.  Likewise progressives will tell you that Trump was literally Hitler and then brag about we need another FDR…who literally put American citizens in prison camps because of their ethnic background.

This whole binary way of thinking is how we keep getting crap—crap politicians, crap policies, you name it.  Don’t excuse bad behavior or bad policy just because X person/party is not as bad as Y person/party.

[brickhistory]

I have GOT to get me a prescription for condescension.  My over-the-counter stuff ain't hacking it here.  Arguments are emotional, silly, false, etc, etc. 

Or so I'm told.

Could be my opinion is just as valid as any other.

Or I could just be lectured by my betters...

 

ENDEX for me:  I hope Ukraine continues to stack Russian corpses deep.  I am sorry for the misery they are enduring as a result.  I hope the rest of the world continues tossing weapons over the border to 'em.

I hope we don't get involved in a shooting war.

Especially one that escalates.

Without a valid reason that is worth the lives of our side - military or civilian.

[MCO]

26 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

I have GOT to get me a prescription for condescension.  My over-the-counter stuff ain't hacking it here.  Arguments are emotional, silly, false, etc, etc. 

Or so I'm told.

Could be my opinion is just as valid as any other.

Or I could just be lectured by my betters...

 

ENDEX for me:  I hope Ukraine continues to stack Russian corpses deep.  I am sorry for the misery they are enduring as a result.  I hope the rest of the world continues tossing weapons over the border to 'em.

I hope we don't get involved in a shooting war.

Especially one that escalates.

Without a valid reason that is worth the lives of our side - military or civilian.

The problem is, and the driving force behind all these arguments, is none of us agree on what makes a reason valid.

[kaputt]

How about some more videos of Ukrainians stacking Russians? 

[DirkDiggler]

11 hours ago, kaputt said:

How about some more videos of Ukrainians stacking Russians? 

As requested.

[FLEA]

Really good thoughts in this article: 

Niall Ferguson: Putin and Biden Misunderstand History in Ukraine War - Bloomberg

Don't 100% agree with everything but there are certainly considerations in here worth holding on to. 

[GrndPndr]

16 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Oh don’t get me started on Lincoln…

<snip>

This whole binary way of thinking is how we keep getting crap—crap politicians, crap policies, you name it.  Don’t excuse bad behavior or bad policy just because X person/party is not as bad as Y person/party.

Yes, but the media has to have drama to survive, it's how they continue to operate.  Are you saying that some of the media (who can't hack it) should go out of business?  Why, that would be a terrible thing indeed, reporters on the street, cats and dogs mating in back alleyways.  Uh, maybe that was reporters and dogs....

[fire4effect]

4 hours ago, DirkDiggler said:

As requested.

Crispy Critters. Took me a bit to see the actual track of the missile from the upper right

Edited March 22, 2022 by fire4effect

[Lawman]

Ok…

I think we need to restructure our OPFOR plan.





I can imagine a lot of situations where we’d be scraping together mixed units of national guard weekend warrior types trying to reconstitute stuff in a hurry….

In none of those scenarios do I foresee us breaking into armories full of WWII stocks of small arms and equipment.


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[viper154]

39 minutes ago, Lawman said:

Ok…

I think we need to restructure our OPFOR plan.





I can imagine a lot of situations where we’d be scraping together mixed units of national guard weekend warrior types trying to reconstitute stuff in a hurry….

In none of those scenarios do I foresee us breaking into armories full of WWII stocks of small arms and equipment.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I would trade the M9 for a 1911 all day every day. 

[Prosuper]

44 minutes ago, Lawman said:

Ok…

I think we need to restructure our OPFOR plan.





I can imagine a lot of situations where we’d be scraping together mixed units of national guard weekend warrior types trying to reconstitute stuff in a hurry….

In none of those scenarios do I foresee us breaking into armories full of WWII stocks of small arms and equipment.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Our old M-1 Garands and M-14's can still lay down some effective cover fire. But with those guys most likely have not spent a bunch of time on the range with those. At the way things are going the Russian Army doesn't seem to have much training and or trigger time; learning everything the hard way.

[McJay Pilot]

Speaking of old equipment:

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/u-s-sending-soviet-air-defense-systems-it-secretly-acquired-to-ukraine-11647878422
 

Makes sense. I wonder if we’ve tweaked them at all once we got all the testing/data we needed or if they’re still “factory” defaults.

[fire4effect]

Up to 40,000 Russian soldiers killed, wounded, captured or MIA in Ukraine, NATO estimates (msn.com)

Damn. If this is even close to true there's no way Russia can sustain this for long. Eventually word gets back to the families what's happening.

[fire4effect]

10 minutes ago, McJay Pilot said:

Speaking of old equipment:

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/u-s-sending-soviet-air-defense-systems-it-secretly-acquired-to-ukraine-11647878422
 

 

This so pisses me off. I don't want my opponents to know what or how much I have until it flies up his A$$. Same for the numbers of Javelins etc. Ivan can count them by numbers of vehicles destroyed. Press thinks they can print anything.

[Lord Ratner]

Sam Harris, who I often disagree with, had a good podcast about why this all matters to the West.

 

The economic repercussions that will follow a regression in the world order, one where every country has to dedicate huge amounts of money to defense instead of social programs, healthcare, research, education, production, etc, will be devastating. Considering the millennial and gen z generations will already have to pay the bill for the ridiculous Keynesian spending of the Boomers and the financial-markets-fuckery of Gen X, it'll be a pretty hard hit to also have to fund the next world-wide rearmament.

 

 

[Guardian]

Good. We could use some cuts in some programs.

[ecugringo]

NATO estimates Russian casualties at 40k with 7k-15k KIA.  Crazy!  Thats more losses than the US suffered at IWO Jima.