Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[waveshaper]

Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Alligator Class LST With Ballistic Missile

The Ballistic missile/s used by the Ukrainian forces in this attack is possibly the OTR-21 Tochka A.K.A. SS-21 Scarab model A, B, or C -TBD. The Video (long video) shows one Russian Navy ship on fire with numerous secondary explosions, shore depot on fire, and two other Russian navy ships bugging out of the port and they both appear to be on fire.

Ukraine strikes Russia's Alligator class LST with ballistic missile - Naval News

 

[hindsight2020]

Well, that's two big expensive pieces of hardware now sitting in the bottom of the black sea, for Putin's little 72 hour field trip he had planned. When keepin' it real...goes wrong.

*Gleefully whistles Randy Dandy Oh! under breath* 😆

Slava Ukraini.

[ClearedHot]

US, allies consider providing anti-ship missiles to Ukraine

This won't escalate things...

[fire4effect]

24 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

US, allies consider providing anti-ship missiles to Ukraine

This won't escalate things...

Nope, not at all.😲 As long as he has troops all over Ukraine I'm slightly less worried about WMD use. When/if he starts a large scale "pullout" sts there's no telling if he's really throwing in the towel or planning on smoking the place. Pay attention to the weather forecast for days the wind is blowing away from Russia.

Edited March 24, 2022 by fire4effect

[hockeydork]

23 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

US, allies consider providing anti-ship missiles to Ukraine

This won't escalate things...

Will it? Putin won't leave without leveling the place in a temper tantrum to save his ego anyways. The West will be the ones who end up footing the bill and donating money to help rebuild the place. Small price to pay for the Ukrainians shedding blood to fend off the Russians. As sad as it is, the US spent years and trillions on weapons preparing to fight the Russians, and now somebody else is doing it for us. 

Least we can do is let them try and send the Black Sea fleet to the sea floor. Tragic, but I have seen enough of cruise missiles smashing into random apartment complexes. I'm sure we have some dusty harpoons that we're gunna be scrapped anyways. Light em up. 

[ClearedHot]

He needs an off ramp, I don't think he will accept a complete defeat and his situation in Ukraine is looking more dire by the day.  While the newly delivered S300s won't given the Ukrainians Air Superiority, it will make it more difficult to conduct combined arms operations.  The Anti-ship missiles will complicate some of his resupply to southern forces.  The artillery and rocket attacks have leveled some Ukrainian cities but he has used up a LOT of weapons.  While the loss of five Russian general officers is not profound there are other reports indicating high losses at the O-6 level.  In one notable case a Russian Colonel commanding an Armored brigade was knifed to death by his own troops after refusing to call off an attack.  His unit lost had already lost 30% of its force and the younger soldiers confronted and ultimately attacked him.

I want the Ukrainians to win, but I fear if this starts to go way south for Russia he will escalate to a tactical nuke or chemical weapons because he has no other choice to avoid complete defeat.

Given that he has started to purge commanders and folks closer to his circle I would say the chances of someone internal to Russia taking him out have also increased. 

[hockeydork]

17 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

He needs an off ramp, 

My understanding is we're calling and they aren't picking up the phone? Not sure how accurate that is. Unfortunately he doubled down, and this exactly what happens when you double down, you can double lose. 

19 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

but I fear if this starts to go way south for Russia he will escalate to a tactical nuke or chemical weapons because he has no other choice to avoid complete defeat.

Given that he has started to purge commanders and folks closer to his circle I would say the chances of someone internal to Russia taking him out have also increased. 

I guess that ship sailed for me. He is going to be completely defeated at least in terms of what he actually wanted to achieve, he is going to be humiliated, he is going to be shamed and shunned, and he is likely to get offed by his own. Minus a couple people on here who think that the West should keep trading with Russia because "its in the economic interests of the US", the vast majority want nothing to do with Russia unless the government is changed. Trust = blown. It's done, no going back. 

I have accepted that we should be looking into mitigating the use tac nukes or chemical weapons via force we can transfer to the Ukrainian's, and be prepared for their employment. If he is considering using them, nothing is going to change that now. Let's hope that units says "no thanks" when the order is given. 

29 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

 a Russian Colonel commanding an Armored brigade was knifed to death by his own troops after refusing to call off an attack.  His unit lost had already lost 30% of its force and the younger soldiers confronted and ultimately attacked him.

 

Good for them. That's what happens when you send young Russian kids to die for nothing. The Ukrainian's have Mel on their side, the Russians, do not. 

[FLEA]

5 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

My understanding is we're calling and they aren't picking up the phone? Not sure how accurate that is. Unfortunately he doubled down, and this exactly what happens when you double down, you can double lose. 

I guess that ship sailed for me. He is going to be completely defeated at least in terms of what he actually wanted to achieve, he is going to be humiliated, he is going to be shamed and shunned, and he is likely to get offed by his own. Minus a couple people on here who think that the West should keep trading with Russia because "its in the economic interests of the US", the vast majority want nothing to do with Russia unless the government is changed. Trust = blown. It's done, no going back. 

I have accepted that we should be looking into mitigating the use tac nukes or chemical weapons via force we can transfer to the Ukrainian's, and be prepared for their employment. If he is considering using them, nothing is going to change that now. Let's hope that units says "no thanks" when the order is given. 

Good for them. That's what happens when you send young Russian kids to die for nothing. The Ukrainian's have Mel on their side, the Russians, do not. 

He's not going anywhere man. Putin is going to be in power until he dies of natural causes. But he needs to show some sort of victory to his people or he is going to struggle on the home front. So he will continue to twist the narrative, lock the country down and accelerate aggression until he has "something". 

Regarding mutiny and the use of nukes, unknown. But I presume people with access to nuclear material in Russia go through a significant loyalty test akin to PRP and most of them are trustworthy by Putin at the controls. It also appears that Putin has begun purging his nuclear C2 forces. So take that for what it's worth. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by FLEA

[hockeydork]

13 minutes ago, FLEA said:

He's not going anywhere man. Putin is going to be in power until he dies of natural causes. But he needs to show some sort of victory to his people or he is going to struggle on the home front. So he will continue to twist the narrative, lock the country down and accelerate aggression until he has "something". 

 

That could happen too. And I'm fine with it. If he wants to lockdown in fortress Russia and tank the Russian economy, and the Russians around him are dumb enough to let him ruin their country, so be it. We don't need them, we don't need their fossil fuels, we are rich in our own resources (fossil, wind solar) and we are innovators. Strategically we will leave them in the dust.  

[GrndPndr]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

He needs an off ramp,<snip>  True

I want the Ukrainians to win, but I fear if this starts to go way south for Russia he will escalate to a tactical nuke or chemical weapons because he has no other choice to avoid complete defeat.

And, I wonder how bad everyone's feelings would be hurt by the Russkies producing a yield (nuke detonation) at say FL300.  No real damage, but a nuke is still a nuke, eh?  Is this the most innocuous use of nuclear weapons?

[fire4effect]

7 minutes ago, GrndPndr said:

And, I wonder how bad everyone's feelings would be hurt by the Russkies producing a yield (nuke detonation) at say FL300.  No real damage, but a nuke is still a nuke, eh?  Is this the most innocuous use of nuclear weapons?

Well I doubt most civil aircraft are nuclear hardened. Or many other critical systems. So I'd say hardly innocuous

[Lawman]

And, I wonder how bad everyone's feelings would be hurt by the Russkies producing a yield (nuke detonation) at say FL300.  No real damage, but a nuke is still a nuke, eh?  Is this the most innocuous use of nuclear weapons?

Considering EMP range is increased with altitude to a relative blast yield…

Yeah people would probably not be ok with the resultant crash of every airborne commercial aircraft within hundreds of miles, not to mention the mass attack to infrastructure of countries not directly involved in hostilities.

Setting off a nuke in the modern age whether in or outside the atmosphere is the unacceptable escalation to any conflict. That should be pretty clear at this point to anybody sane.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GrndPndr]

My scenario was intended to be geared more for a strategic level, including ground level effects and worry and whining by the politicos.  Lastly, what kind of reactions does it trigger with NATO and other non-Russo aligned folks.

[McJay Pilot]

6 hours ago, hindsight2020 said:

Well, that's two big expensive pieces of hardware now sitting in the bottom of the black sea, for Putin's little 72 hour field trip he had planned. When keepin' it real...goes wrong.

*Gleefully whistles Randy Dandy Oh! under breath* 😆

Slava Ukraini.

Billy Mays here, but WAIT, there’s MORE!

 

the “combat footage” sub Reddit is awesome.

[Lawman]

Billy Mays here, but WAIT, there’s MORE!

 
the “combat footage” sub Reddit is awesome.

*Laughs in German*

If they can’t get that thing out into open water and away from more drone strikes, it’s gonna get messed up.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Sua Sponte]

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000008266864/russia-army-radio-makariv.html?smid=em-share&fbclid=IwAR3UA-nSWFuAx10KcGIA4sY_p5kny5mi6Lz-I1OVBOu1T3AworS1UpF1BoA

[BFM this]

16 hours ago, Lawman said:

Yeah people would probably not be ok with the resultant crash of every airborne commercial aircraft within hundreds of miles, not to mention the mass attack to infrastructure of countries not directly involved in hostilities.

You can still land a Boeing...

[fire4effect]

In a VERY different time and higher altitude but it gives an idea of what could happen. I can only imagine what the effect would be on our modern digital world versus 1962

Starfish Prime - Wikipedia

[HeloDude]

20 hours ago, hockeydork said:

Minus a couple people on here who think that the West should keep trading with Russia because "its in the economic interests of the US", the vast majority want nothing to do with Russia unless the government is changed. Trust = blown. It's done, no going back.

Just out of curiosity, do you support economic trade with China, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, and Turkey?  If so, does this mean that trading with them equates to supporting their actions that many in the US find appalling?  Also, are France and Hungary bad countries for not cutting economic ties with Russia?

[Prosuper]

6 hours ago, BFM this said:

You can still land a Boeing

Does that include the 787?

Edited March 25, 2022 by Prosuper

[BFM this]

1 hour ago, Prosuper said:

Does that include the 787?

lol, yeah, probably not.

[Prosuper]

On 3/24/2022 at 12:35 PM, ClearedHot said:

 While the loss of five Russian general officers is not profound there are other reports indicating high losses at the O-6 level.  In one notable case a Russian Colonel commanding an Armored brigade was knifed to death by his own troops after refusing to call off an attack.  His unit lost had already lost 30% of its force and the younger soldiers confronted and ultimately attacked him.

 

Hate to say it but mx troops had the same thought after endless 12 hours shifts no weekends off just so a guy can go from O-6 to O-7.

[ClearedHot]

14 hours ago, Prosuper said:

Hate to say it but mx troops had the same thought after endless 12 hours shifts no weekends off just so a guy can go from O-6 to O-7.

Thoughts and actions are two very different things.  I hope much of what I am hearing is true and the Russian army is a paper tiger that is is losing.  I just want them to lose in a way that they can go home without the world coming to an end.

[fire4effect]

18 hours ago, Prosuper said:

Hate to say it but mx troops had the same thought after endless 12 hours shifts no weekends off just so a guy can go from O-6 to O-7.

Still just as funny as the first time I saw it.

 

[ClearedHot]