Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Prozac]

5 hours ago, brabus said:

You have some massive rose colored glasses, but of course I completely agree with this statement. However, just because we’d rather be American than Chinese does not mean we aren’t a complete fuck show right now. Those are two independent things. 

It’s all relative. Always has been. Always will be. The world’s always been a complete fuck show. It’s a little less so today than it was a hundred years ago, and so on. Bashing one’s head against wall because the world doesn’t conform to what they wish were true may be satisfying for a while, but eventually becomes painful & counterproductive. People have been sure the sky is falling for millennia and yet, the world goes on. Focus on the things you can control, be glad you’re in the best possible place on the planet at the moment, and enjoy the show while you’re here. 

[Guardian]

It’s all relative. Always has been. Always will be.

Is that statement relative?

It’s all subjective! Except the stuff that’s not.

Philosophy 101.

In the words of Inigo Montoya. “That word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.”

[Prozac]

34 minutes ago, Guardian said:

Is that statement relative?

It’s all subjective! Except the stuff that’s not.

Philosophy 101.

In the words of Inigo Montoya. “That word. I do not think that word means what you think it means.”
 

Ok So-Crates, school me…

[Guardian]

Thought I just did

[FLEA]

1 hour ago, Prozac said:

It’s all relative. Always has been. Always will be. The world’s always been a complete fuck show. It’s a little less so today than it was a hundred years ago, and so on. Bashing one’s head against wall because the world doesn’t conform to what they wish were true may be satisfying for a while, but eventually becomes painful & counterproductive. People have been sure the sky is falling for millennia and yet, the world goes on. Focus on the things you can control, be glad you’re in the best possible place on the planet at the moment, and enjoy the show while you’re here. 

Are you going to hold that line when people say we cant afford social healthcare and higher social safety nets?

Edited January 1, 2023 by FLEA

[Prozac]

31 minutes ago, Guardian said:

Thought I just did

No, I’m pretty sure I know exactly what I meant when I said it’s all relative and it’s you who miss the point. Some here continually argue that the U.S. is a dumpster fire. My point (along with others) is that it doesn’t matter. Maybe we are a complete mess (Though I think it’s a bit hyperbolic to argue that point), but we’re the least bad option out there. And that’s the way it’s always been. We’ll never be perfect, but given all other options, the US is a pretty fuckin’ good place to be. Try and make it better while your here, but also enjoy it because, at the end of the day, your time here is vanishingly short. 

[Prozac]

8 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Are you going to hold that line when people say we cant afford social healthcare and higher social safety nets?

Yep. Wish we did better in that regard, and I’ll continue to work & vote to that end, but you won’t see me emigrating to Sweden anytime soon.

Lots of absolutists on the internet these days. If you’re liberal, the Republicans are leading us into oblivion & if you’re conservative, the Dems are marching us straight into hell. Time to give it a rest. Stop letting our own visions of perfect blind us from seeing what a good thing we have. That’s how we lose it. 

[dream big]

19 hours ago, nsplayr said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/
 

We’ve provided the vast majority of direct mil aid, the EU has provided more financial aid. Individual EU/NATO countries have made additional contributions.

All well worth it, I’m perfectly happy let the Russian armed forces crash against the hard rocks of Ukraine for as long as those idiots want to do so!

We absolutely should help Ukraine along with assure NATO and defend the Eastern Flank. Perhaps many are questioning the notion of sending blank checks to Ukraine (with no audit mechanism) indefinitely without a larger overarching strategy? 

[FLEA]

27 minutes ago, dream big said:

We absolutely should help Ukraine along with assure NATO and defend the Eastern Flank. Perhaps many are questioning the notion of sending blank checks to Ukraine (with no audit mechanism) indefinitely without a larger overarching strategy? 

Bingo.

[FLEA]

58 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Yep. Wish we did better in that regard, and I’ll continue to work & vote to that end, but you won’t see me emigrating to Sweden anytime soon.

Lots of absolutists on the internet these days. If you’re liberal, the Republicans are leading us into oblivion & if you’re conservative, the Dems are marching us straight into hell. Time to give it a rest. Stop letting our own visions of perfect blind us from seeing what a good thing we have. That’s how we lose it. 

I agree with you 100% here but there has to be priorities. Is our priorities to secure the financial freedom of our citizens and provide economic liberty or is it to help Ukraine win their war and help Europeans enjoy a better lifestyle then our own citizens? 

[Clark Griswold]

Interested in guesses from this audience…
War in Ukraine, how much longer do you think it will go before an armistice or a negotiation to a permanent settlement?

My opinion it will last most of next year, past the summer. Russia is garnering forces, buying weapons, learning/adapting some. NOT a statement of support but my assessment.
Ukraine is also, the war and likely final line of control will remain east of the Dneiper River.


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[uhhello]

14 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

Interested in guesses from this audience…
War in Ukraine, how much longer do you think it will go before an armistice or a negotiation to a permanent settlement?

My opinion it will last most of next year, past the summer. Russia is garnering forces, buying weapons, learning/adapting some. NOT a statement of support but my assessment.
Ukraine is also, the war and likely final line of control will remain east of the Dneiper River.


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I think it will be shorter than your projection.  

What additional forces can they garner and utilize in anything other than the current frontal assaults being conducted?  Lots of open source reporting of shell shortages and talk of the shells they are getting (with 2022 manufacture dates) as being complete garbage. 

Time is not in their favor on buying weapons.

They don't appear to have adapted in the slightest.  Those who are still around don't appear to have made any progress changing their tactics from the initial invasion and gradual loss of territory on their retreat east.  

Also, whats going on with Putin?  Lots of videos and pictures supporting some type of illness or the results of an illness.   Does the war end if he falls out a window or just dies?  

Ukraine has to make it through the winter civilian populace wise but I don't see anything major happening on that front.

What does the Ukraine force strength look like though?  I have no idea.  I think their support from us and EU countries will only grow due to UKR seeming to be on the right path.  

I'm basing all of this off of open source intel and guesses.  Could be way off but who knows.  

Edited January 2, 2023 by uhhello

[Biff_T]

3 hours ago, Prozac said:

... enjoy the show while you’re here. 

When people figure out how to do this, they usually have a better life.  We think we're so important.  A lot of people forget that we are all going to die.  In the end, none of this bullshit matters.  We're on a spinning rock, floating through an expanding universe, which at this moment, I'm not thoroughly convinced that anybody knows how the universe got here in the first place.  

Drink a cold Busch Light and relax.  Life is short.  You never know when you might hit the dirt upside down.  

 

[McJay Pilot]

Reportedly about 600 Russians met Señor HIMARS just after midnight, during a Putin speech. That probably would tip the scales here, but I doubt it moves the needle much in Russia.

 

[Majestik Møøse]

When the Russians started buying back munitions from former customers because they have none left of their own, that was the end of their ability to win a war.

[Clark Griswold]

13 hours ago, uhhello said:

I think it will be shorter than your projection.  

What additional forces can they garner and utilize in anything other than the current frontal assaults being conducted?  Lots of open source reporting of shell shortages and talk of the shells they are getting (with 2022 manufacture dates) as being complete garbage. 

Time is not in their favor on buying weapons.

They don't appear to have adapted in the slightest.  Those who are still around don't appear to have made any progress changing their tactics from the initial invasion and gradual loss of territory on their retreat east.  

Also, whats going on with Putin?  Lots of videos and pictures supporting some type of illness or the results of an illness.   Does the war end if he falls out a window or just dies?  

Ukraine has to make it through the winter civilian populace wise but I don't see anything major happening on that front.

What does the Ukraine force strength look like though?  I have no idea.  I think their support from us and EU countries will only grow due to UKR seeming to be on the right path.  

I'm basing all of this off of open source intel and guesses.  Could be way off but who knows.  

I hope you're right and I'm wrong.  

I'm pessimistic about the war as I think they (Russians) have enough mobliks now and ammo to launch another offensive, really just to try to get Ukraine to negotiate and accept territorial concessions.

Russia Seen as Preparing for Massive Winter Offensive in Ukraine, Including New Run on Kyiv | World Report | U.S. News (usnews.com)

 

Another decent read on the Ukr / Rus war:

Putin's War in Ukraine Is Brutal (It Looks Like the Crimean War) - 19FortyFive

 

[Lawman]

When the Russians started buying back munitions from former customers because they have none left of their own, that was the end of their ability to win a war.

They aren’t running out of shells or more importantly tubes for their artillery.

Our sanctions haven’t impacted their ability to manufacture those items. Complex munitions like PGM and Kaliber yes… 152mm boom and 220mm rockets not so much.

They bought stuff back to make the gap between realizing this wouldn’t be a short fight and getting their industry spun up to make up the difference.


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[FLEA]

They wasted 8 years in Afghanistan so I would say prolonged conflict isn't new to them. I can see the brass heads now telling the press that "victory is only a few months away" and "they will welcome us as liberators" while the greedy military industrial complexes start eyeballing profits for the next decade. 

This is probably a good thing for us, bad thing for Ukraine. This will likely have the same effect Afghanistan did in the 80's and completely cripple their global power/influence removing their great power status and forcing them to concede to western demands. It will likely also instill distrust in Putin's competence but only after several years of false messaging and failed goals. This could lead to an internal leadership ouster with a more pro-western strongman. 

[uhhello]

Pretty incredible that UKR apparently hasn't lost a single HIMARS yet.  Looks like they hit another target the other night with anywhere from 100-500 KIA and another big weapons stockpile.  

[Lord Ratner]

I have a hard time believing Russia can do better in the winter than they have in the warm months. 

 

It appears the Ukrainians will fight for as long as we fund them, and we will fund them for as long as it keeps weakening Russia.

[McJay Pilot]

13 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

I have a hard time believing Russia can do better in the winter than they have in the warm months. 

Based on their shit logistics, I think we’ll see General Winter on the side of the Ukrainians this year.

Coming soon, the legendary “meat popsicles” of The 5th Element!

[Clark Griswold]

On a new Russian offensive, British analysis:

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[FourFans]

How does the current "anti-russia" impact the the environment in Europe right now?

A thought: this guy offers a LOT of useful information.

Caveat: YGTBSM crowd: yes, I am addressing your kindred.  Your offspring WILL NOT look like you.  Yet they will do your job better.  They WILL hang it out, in a way you don't understand.  Trust them.

...sadly, the guys who Know..probably, are too understand, unless young officers make them understand..;.

 

OOOOORRRRRRR I'm completely wrong and this dude just broke a LOT of rules:  

 

 

[nsplayr]

2 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

A thought: this guy offers a LOT of useful information.

Caveat: YGTBSM crowd: yes, I am addressing your kindred.  Your offspring WILL NOT look like you.  Yet they will do your job better.  They WILL hang it out, in a way you don't understand.  Trust them.

...sadly, the guys who Know..probably, are too understand, unless young officers make them understand..;.

 

OOOOORRRRRRR I'm completely wrong and this dude just broke a LOT of rules:

I can't understand WTF you're talking about here after all that whiskey, and a 45+ minute youtube video of two unknown dudes talking is below my line.

Do you have a TL;DR once you're sober? Cheers!

[uhhello]

34 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

I can't understand WTF you're talking about here after all that whiskey, and a 45+ minute youtube video of two unknown dudes talking is below my line.

Do you have a TL;DR once you're sober? Cheers!

Very early days (first couple weeks) Russian AF strikes and caps very uncoordinated but had giant numbers/tech advantage.  UKR air defenses were entirely suppressed on teh ground and were forced to continually maneuver forcing UKR fighters to fly in extremely low to get under RUS fighters.  Rest of it explained how much of a shit show the RUS military plan or lack of plan was.  No comms and couldn't spell joint.  

basically this white paper

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/russian-air-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence

Edited January 8, 2023 by uhhello