Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[FLEA]

Its utterly ridiculous. Could you imagine us invading Mexico, and NATO obviously won't get involved. But when Mexico attacks some force staging areas in Texas all of a sudden NATO goes "woah Mexico....., that's an Article 5 violation! You attack one of us you attack us all!"

[DSG]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

Its utterly ridiculous. Could you imagine us invading Mexico, and NATO obviously won't get involved. But when Mexico attacks some force staging areas in Texas all of a sudden NATO goes "woah Mexico....., that's an Article 5 violation! You attack one of us you attack us all!"

Plenty of hypocrisy to go around in this conflict (and in general).

[Prozac]

Why on earth would Russia want to widen this conflict? They are getting their asses handed to them by the Ukrainians and now they want NATO to join the blanket party? I think not. Typical bluster and scaremongering from Putin. 

[FLEA]

4 hours ago, Prozac said:

Why on earth would Russia want to widen this conflict? They are getting their asses handed to them by the Ukrainians and now they want NATO to join the blanket party? I think not. Typical bluster and scaremongering from Putin. 

They don't want to and their intention wouldn't be. However bringing in Belarus short term would be helpful to them. Bringing in Belarus on its own isn't problematic for Russia but Belarus has baggage with the rest of the EU that can quickly trigger something larger. 

[ClearedHot]

IMHO supporting Ukraine has been and continues to be a wise decision.

As of the end of November the U.S. has given $50B to Ukraine, with half of that being military aid.  Our annual defense budget is currently at $725B.  For just under 7% of a single year of defense budget we have helped humble a superpower, all without losing American soldiers, that my friends is a bargain!

For at least the next 10 years Russia has been removed from the world stage as a conventional military threat and I believe it has given China something to think about, all without losing American lives.  In many respects I would argue this has been our most effective proxy war.  Russia may or may not ultimately win this war but the implications of it will shape Russia for a generation. 

The Russian military has lost significant amounts of equipment (and I guarantee there is a flood of captured equipment flowing to the U.S. for exploitation that will pay dividends for years.) The Oryx website reports 8,000 pieces of equipment destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured, including some 1,500 tanks, 700 armored fighting vehicles, and 1,700 infantry fighting vehicles.  Bottomline, it will take years and huge amounts of $ to rebuild their military.

The bigger impact is in casualties, the numbers are staggering.  I obviously don't believe the published numbers from either Ukraine or Russia as they are always misstated.  DoD and several think tanks have done independent assessments that seem to settle on 100,000 Russian Casualties with between 40,000-50,000 deaths.  The demographics of those losses is staggering and touches every part of Russian society.  A few data points to put it into perspective:

1.  In 20 years of combat in Afghanistan there were 2.456 United States military deaths. 1,932 of these deaths were the result of hostile action. 20,752 American service members were also wounded in action during the war.

2. In 20 years of combat in Vietnam there were 58,148 were United States military deaths.  300,000 American service members were also wounded in action during the war.

3.  In 20 years of combat in Iraq there were 4,431 were United States military deaths.  31,994 American service members were also wounded in action during the war.

In a single year the Russians have suffered almost as many deaths as the U.S. did in 20 years of war in Vietnam.  Additionally, Russia's population is less than half (143 Million versus 332 Million), this war has touch a large majority of families in Russia.  Putin's ability to survive demonstrates his grip on power, but without success I don't think he will survive.

War is terrible and this is no exception.  But when you step back and look at the situation from the perspective of the Great Power game, this has been a huge win for us.

 

 

 

[Clark Griswold]

I'll agree with most on this thread that helping Ukraine has been a wise decision and continuing to help them is the best COA going forward at some point though there will come a point that it will not be in OUR interest to help them further considering the long game, namely the stabilization and recovery of Ukraine.  We as their patron will need to say no more and let's conclude the hostilities like all conflicts end, in some kind of negotiations.  We're not there yet but I think we can see an appropriate ending point in the next year.

We may see that time before the Ukrainians do because their government and their relationship to their government is not the same as ours, I always keep in mind my admiration of the Ukranian people is different than the Ukranian government.  That's all I want to say about that.

All that said, where do we go from here as to what our enemies / competitors will have seen, learned and therefore will act on in the future?

My suspicion is that the next map of Ukraine will look like this.  Many countries will not recognize the territory taken by Russia but they will control them and incorporate them into the Russian Federation.  My fear is that this will prove that aggression does to some extent work, albeit at a VERY high cost but if you are willing to pay for it you will get some of what you want.  Territory, control of sea lanes, islands, etc.. you can get it if you will attack.

With that in mind, besides making our allies into porcupines in these high tension areas of the work with healthy supplies of missiles, artillery, mines and next gen weapons (DE, tac drones, etc.) what should be our strategy/policy implications?

[Prozac]

7 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

We as their patron will need to say no more and let's conclude the hostilities like all conflicts end, in some kind of negotiations.  We're not there yet but I think we can see an appropriate ending point in the next year.

I dunno man. Kinda hard to tell a sovereign nation to stop fighting for every inch of territory that’s been annexed by an aggressor. If the Ukrainians are willing to fight for the next 20 years, & tie up the Red Army in the process, I say let ‘em & provide whatever weapons are reasonable for that end. 

[pawnman]

32 minutes ago, Prozac said:

I dunno man. Kinda hard to tell a sovereign nation to stop fighting for every inch of territory that’s been annexed by an aggressor. If the Ukrainians are willing to fight for the next 20 years, & tie up the Red Army in the process, I say let ‘em & provide whatever weapons are reasonable for that end. 

I agree. 

If China invaded the west coast, at what point do you think the US would negotiate a settlement that gave up Hawaii, Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington? 

[TreeA10]

23 minutes ago, pawnman said:

I agree. 

If China invaded the west coast, at what point do you think the US would negotiate a settlement that gave up Hawaii, Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington? 

Hawaii and Alaska???  Hell no. California, Oregon, and Washington.... Can I get back to you on that?

[FLEA]

2 hours ago, TreeA10 said:

Hawaii and Alaska???  Hell no. California, Oregon, and Washington.... Can I get back to you on that?

Id want to keep Washington as well. Seattle is, well, its seen better days. But the Peugot Sound and northern cascades are still legendary outdoor wonders. 

[Biff_T]

31 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Id want to keep Washington as well. Seattle is, well, its seen better days. But the Peugot Sound and northern cascades are still legendary outdoor wonders. 

I'll fight for Orange County lol.   Or maybe just move to Costa Rica?  There are plenty of Chinese and Chinese Americans already living here in OC and LA.   Red China would probably do a better job taking care the homeless problem.  Lol.   

[FLEA]

1 hour ago, Biff_T said:

I'll fight for Orange County lol.   Or maybe just move to Costa Rica?  There are plenty of Chinese and Chinese Americans already living here in OC and LA.   Red China would probably do a better job taking care the homeless problem.  Lol.   

I mean can we just get down to the county level and do some quid quo pro's? Id probably give China some east coast cities as well if they want em.....

[dream big]

3 hours ago, Biff_T said:

I'll fight for Orange County lol.   Or maybe just move to Costa Rica?  There are plenty of Chinese and Chinese Americans already living here in OC and LA.   Red China would probably do a better job taking care the homeless problem.  Lol.   

And keep Tahoe, Yosemite, and Reno areas. We could just give them everything West if I-5 and call it a day. What a great deal to avoid WW3. 

[Clark Griswold]

I dunno man. Kinda hard to tell a sovereign nation to stop fighting for every inch of territory that’s been annexed by an aggressor. If the Ukrainians are willing to fight for the next 20 years, & tie up the Red Army in the process, I say let ‘em & provide whatever weapons are reasonable for that end. 

We don’t have to tell them to stop but we don’t have to supply and support them if we determine it’s not in our interest.
Just as I think we should be concerned about the longer term of Ukraine we need to be concerned about what Russia will be after the conflict is ended.
That’s not because I love the current brutal authoritarian regime of Russia but because it could get worse. If it gets to be an internal power struggle, civil war, instability… the successor to Putin could be this dude:

https://news.yahoo.com/owner-wagner-mercenary-group-could-195500949.html

Methinks a weakened but not delirious and crazily dangerous Russia should be our goal. I think the lesson of Iraq should give us pause about gleefully toppling and radically destabilizing authoritarian regimes, particularly ones with 7000 nukes plus a 6900 other WMD / advanced military capabilities.


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[nsplayr]

 

Glad the Russians (at least the ones in their embassy in Sweden!) are fully on board with remembering that Crimea is part of Ukraine 🤣

I would recommend whoever posted this ask for ground-floor accommodations whenever traveling from here on out. Hotel windows are so easy to fall out of!

[uhhello]

2 hours ago, nsplayr said:

 

Glad the Russians (at least the ones in their embassy in Sweden!) are fully on board with remembering that Crimea is part of Ukraine 🤣

I would recommend whoever posted this ask for ground-floor accommodations whenever traveling from here on out. Hotel windows are so easy to fall out of!

It's not the fall that kills em, its the bullet in the back of the head 

[gearhog]

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, torqued said:

Were you bitching just as much when we maxed out the credit cards every other year for less consequential shit?  

[gearhog]

7 hours ago, uhhello said:

Were you bitching just as much when we maxed out the credit cards every other year for less consequential shit?  

I think you're accusing me of "not bitching" about less important shit as if it were an insult, but who tf knows...

[DirkDiggler]

  Pretty intense video of a Ukrainian unit assaulting a Russian held town.

[pawnman]

11 hours ago, uhhello said:

Were you bitching just as much when we maxed out the credit cards every other year for less consequential shit?  

Guessing he's also upset that the bonus is too low, the Air Force is too small, and that we aren't buying enough new aircraft. 

[uhhello]

4 hours ago, torqued said:

I think you're accusing me of "not bitching" about less important shit as if it were an insult, but who tf knows...

Debt is debt right?  Whether its going to defeat one of our long time "enemies" or its going to do a study on the long term harm to the mosquito population in Dubuque county California, it's still debt.  It's not like adding to the debt is anything new for eiher side when they are in charge.  

[gearhog]

4 hours ago, pawnman said:

Guessing he's also upset that the bonus is too low, the Air Force is too small, and that we aren't buying enough new aircraft. 

You're fabricating false positions and attributing them to me while admitting you don't have sufficient evidence to know if they're true. You guys suck at insults. 😄

4 hours ago, uhhello said:

Debt is debt right?  Whether its going to defeat one of our long time "enemies" or its going to do a study on the long term harm to the mosquito population in Dubuque county California, it's still debt.  It's not like adding to the debt is anything new for eiher side when they are in charge.  

Wow, you're smarter than you initially seem. Nothing in your post is false. You have a keen grasp of the obvious.

[DirkDiggler]

What Could Come Next? Assessing the Putin Regime's Stability and Western Policy Options (csis.org)

  Pretty long but interesting read/analysis about possible outcomes post Ukraine/Russian war on the Russian side.  Don't know that I agree with everything the author postulates but hopefully our higher ups are thinking about this type of stuff.

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, DirkDiggler said:

What Could Come Next? Assessing the Putin Regime's Stability and Western Policy Options (csis.org)

  Pretty long but interesting read/analysis about possible outcomes post Ukraine/Russian war on the Russian side.  Don't know that I agree with everything the author postulates but hopefully our higher ups are thinking about this type of stuff.

Rest easy.  The best and brightest that helped plan and execute the flawless withdrawal from AFG are being hand picked for the task force assembled to game plan future Russia.