Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[brabus]

13 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

calling another poster on the site a cunt seems over the line no? doesn't hurt my feelings.

if wanting peace makes oneself a cunt then so be it

love seeing the keyboard tough guys

If you pretend this is a Brit forum, then it’d be odd if you weren’t called a cunt! 

[Lawman]

If you pretend this is a Brit forum, then it’d be odd if you weren’t called a ! 

We had to explain to our Brit exchange guy that the phrase, “silly c*nt,” wasn’t nearly the benign comment he was used to culturally.

Thank god the guy doesn’t smoke too…


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[Standby]

First it’s a back door stop loss (ref: stopping retirements and separations after 1 Apr), now this: WHarticle  

[CaptainMorgan]

First it’s a back door stop loss (ref: stopping retirements and separations after 1 Apr), now this: WHarticle  

I must have missed it, what’s the 1 Apr thing?


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[Standby]

49 minutes ago, CaptainMorgan said:

I must have missed it, what’s the 1 Apr thing?


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Separation and retirement orders in 2024 after certain dates won’t be approved due to a lack of available funds. I think the dates are 1 Jan and 1 Apr respectively. 

[CaptainMorgan]

Separation and retirement orders in 2024 after certain dates won’t be approved due to a lack of available funds. I think the dates are 1 Jan and 1 Apr respectively. 

That makes total Air Force sense. The PCS expense is a sunk cost that will be paid out eventually. Denying Sep or retirement just results in more expenditure when you force someone to stay on the payroll.


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[HeloDude]

24 minutes ago, CaptainMorgan said:

That makes total Air Force sense. The PCS expense is a sunk cost that will be paid out eventually. Denying Sep or retirement just results in more expenditure when you force someone to stay on the payroll.


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They’re not going to deny separations or retirements…but they can’t cut orders, because if they did, you would be able to move your household goods, and they’re saying there isn’t any money for the move.

Now as to why the AF can’t get its act together on the financial side…are any of us really that surprised?

[gearhog]

13 hours ago, Standby said:

First it’s a back door stop loss (ref: stopping retirements and separations after 1 Apr), now this: WHarticle  

Now that the door is opening for involuntary activation, ratcheting up the numbers will be easy. I agree with this, though. If we're cheer leading a proxy war that benefits us, let's put our money where our mouth is and see how willing we, as a population, are to risk our people in direct conflict over Ukraine. It's the right thing to do.

Within the last week: This, Increasing amounts of military aid, F-16s, cluster munitions, etc.

Take a look at the trends here. We're committed to a path of continuous escalation. If Ukraine was capable of defeating Russia, it'd have happened. We can give them all the help in the world, but they still have a finite amount if fighting men. We will never know the real losses being incurred, but in attrition warfare where rates are more or less the same on both sides, Russia comes out ahead unless NATO member countries send their men. Ukraine is being backstopped by us, but Russia is being backstopped by China.

If we're calling up Reservists just to sit on the sidelines for Atlantic Resolve, what does it say about our ability to fight a potential second conflict?

Let's say Russia is defeated and pulls back. What's next? Do we redraw the old borders after hundreds of billions of $ and countless lives have been lost? If NATO and Ukraine declare victory, do they continue to allow Russia to exist in a weakened state only to pose a threat later? No, our leadership is going for broke on this one. No one financing this war gives a shit about Ukraine. This is about Western economic dominance against the expanding threat of BRICS Plus. One of the big players has to be completely knocked out and Ukraine is a great excuse.

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by gearhog

[BashiChuni]

the same people who said trump was going to start WW3 are willingly leading us to WW3...

[pbar]

19 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

the same people who said trump was going to start WW3 are willingly leading us to WW3...

Well, we absolutely must punish the Russians for having the gall to get Trump elected, consequences be damned.  We had the glorious Socialist revolution almost in hand until Trump came along.  If we get in a war, so much the better, because it will be all of those flyover rubes who get killed off, it's like a two-fer.  <sarcasm>

[gearhog]

If you have a hard-on for war that lasts longer than 4 years, see a doctor.

https://twitter.com/AsTheWorldBurnz/status/1679966772219244544?s=20

[kaputt]

1 hour ago, gearhog said:

If you have a hard-on for war that lasts longer than 4 years, see a doctor.

https://twitter.com/AsTheWorldBurnz/status/1679966772219244544?s=20

What a stupid fucking tweet, acting like there’s some conspiracy that McCain and Graham were over there in 2017 representing the US and defense aid to Ukraine. Do people not remember that Russia unilaterally invaded Ukraine through Crimea and several eastern provinces all the way back in 2014?

This country is turning into a looney bin more and more every day. An unending parade of woke and social justice garbage from the left and sound bite conspiracy theories from the right. Awesome. 

[gearhog]

12 minutes ago, kaputt said:

What a stupid fucking tweet, acting like there’s some conspiracy that McCain and Graham were over there in 2017 representing the US and defense aid to Ukraine. Do people not remember that Russia unilaterally invaded Ukraine through Crimea and several eastern provinces all the way back in 2014?

This country is turning into a looney bin more and more every day. An unending parade of woke and social justice garbage from the left and sound bite conspiracy theories from the right. Awesome. 

Why would Russia decide to unilaterally invade? Just a land grab?

 

[Danger41]

2 hours ago, gearhog said:

Why would Russia decide to unilaterally invade? Just a land grab?

 

I’ve researched this a good bit and this is the most convincing argument I’ve seen. This is just a condensed clip of a way broader conversation, but starting at about 1:20 he talks about the historical vulnerability points to Russia and Ukraine + Crimea are key to 2/3 of them. That coupled with demographic collapse in Russia in the near term has forced them to make their move while they still can. What isn’t addressed is more of the psychological aspects of Putin’s view of the Russian Empire (pre-Soviet pre-Bolshevik era) that also have influenced this supposedly.

I’m not a geopolitical expert or anything but those reasons (mainly articulated by Peter Zeihan but some others) make the most sense to me.

 

[dream big]

Voluntary activation for Atlantic Resolve, 3000 troops, this should have happened over a year ago if this Defense Department and administration wasn’t so inept. It’s no more escalatory than the thousands of troops we have deployed to Europe already; not to mention AEW, 5th gen fighter squadrons and Carriers.

These dudes are mostly going to be doing staff augmentation in Germany and drinking Hefeweizen. 

My problem with this whole U.S. support to the Ukrainian conflict is we are neither in nor out. We are giving them billions of dollars worth of munitions and equipment and basically saying “Good luck! Here is a HE round, let us know what else you need!?” We are training them on the periphery but really only their SOF forces. We lack a strategy or end state on this largely frozen conflict. 

There are multiple things this administration could do that aren’t escalatory and that would put pressure on Russia, and further help the Ukrainians, if the people leading this country weren’t a bunch of giant pussies. We could also be working a peace deal, but some people seem intent to prolong this conflict. 

[BashiChuni]

On 7/15/2023 at 1:40 AM, dream big said:

We could also be working a peace deal, but some people seem intent to prolong this conflict. 

our government WANTS this conflict to last longer. so do some of the posters on this site.

blackrock said it best...."war is really fucking good for business"

 

 

 

[gearhog]

I was looking at a map today depicting Russian and Ukrainian held territory. I’d like to calculate the number of square miles or kilometers, lost by Russia and recovered by Ukraine, per 1 Billion Dollars.  I think it would be an interesting number. Anyone have any ideas? 

Here’s an article Putin somehow snuck into a notable Western media outlet. It’s worth a scan:
 

Since Putin’s tanks crossed into Ukrainian territory last year, three options have been on the table for how this war would end: victory for one side or the other, a frozen conflict or a negotiated settlement. The public comments made this week by Oleksiy Arestovych, a former advisor to Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, appear to indicate the last may be more likely than previously thought.

Arestovych raised the prospect of Ukraine making territorial concessions in return for the rest of the country receiving the most cast-iron security guarantee there is: Nato membership. These comments have proved highly controversial. Not only would such an outcome be unpalatable to many in Kyiv and other European capitals, raising it as a possibility highlights a growing uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of the war – particularly amongst Ukraine’s western backers.

Arestovych’s suggestion comes at a crucial time. The long-planned counter-offensive, now in its second month, has run into several problems – not least that Kyiv is still waiting for approximately half of the western military equipment promised earlier in the year. Meanwhile, its forces are under increasing pressure to commit its reserves as Russian troops – despite reports of low morale across the front – remain dug-in, seemingly committed to defending every inch of Ukrainian ground captured since last year.

As Russian minefields take their toll on western-supplied tanks and Ukrainian sappers, their forces have so-far retaken approximately five miles of the sixty miles they need to split the land-bridge connecting Russia to Crimea. The land between Mariupol in the east and Melitopol to the west is seen as the vital ground to achieving this.

It is incredibly tough going for the Ukrainians. They lack the air cover and advanced jets to protect their ground forces from Russian attack helicopters and fighters. Their soldiers, meanwhile must negotiate miles of minefields, tank-traps and then ultimately the heavily dug Russian trench networks.

This gruelling endeavour was always going to take longer than the occasionally impatient international audience was prepared to wait for. It is a military effort of immense proportions, where mass, manpower, morale, equipment, stocks, logistics, grit and luck all play vital roles. So far, the Ukrainians are displaying all of these military qualities.

The variable that isn’t on their side is time. In war, time is perhaps the cruellest factor one cannot change. We saw this in NATO’s operation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban took great delight in the retelling of a famous Afghan proverb; ”you may have the watches, but we have the time”.

Summer will soon begin to roll into autumn. Indeed, we are already half-way through the season. The fighting will begin to grind to a cold halt as the freezing winter saps troops’ ability to conduct high-intensity warfare. This will only give Russia more time to further build up its defences, as it did last winter.

By this point in the West, meanwhile, all eyes will be on the upcoming US election, with more political attention diverted by the UK’s general election. Kyiv knows it has a shortened window of opportunity to capitalise on its battlefield initiative and take back as much ground as it can.

If Kyiv fails in its battlefield endeavours to split that land bridge, and retake much of its own territory by winter, then vocal calls of territorial concessions for marginal political outcomes will likely become far more prevalent – not just in Ukraine but likely from western capitals, as so-called “war-fatigue” begins to bite, international stockpiles of equipment and ammunition wither and politicians begin to worry about domestic budgets ahead of national elections.  

While much fighting remains to be done across Ukraine’s southern farmlands over the coming months, governments across the west must be prepared for the grim prospect of territorial concessions as one potential political outcome of a failed counter-offensive. Whether a Putinist Kremlin would respect such a deal if Kyiv were to receive security pledges short of full Nato membership is extremely doubtful.  

Regardless, this would surely be a favoured outcome for China’s ruling “wolf warrior” foreign policy elite. Beijing would be utterly delighted if the war were to end with Ukraine divided, Russian troops permanently in the Donbas harassing Kyiv and Europe, and Nato fractured on political lines. Such an outcome would be a gift to China as Xi Jinping begins to ramp up his own imperialistic and extra-territorial ambitions across the Indo-Pacific – and a devastating defeat for the West.

[gearhog]

 

December 16, 2013:

John McCain goes to Kiev in an attempt to "Boost Anti-Government Protestors". He addresses the crowd of protestors to "bring about a peaceful transition" from it's current government to pro-Western government. He alludes to the potential loss of the Sevastopol naval base by the Russians.

He succeeded.

Feburary 27, 2014:

Russia invaded Crimea.

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by gearhog

[kaputt]

He succeeded? Who succeeded? John McCain launched the invasion of Crimea? Shit, I’ve never been a fan of John McCain, but that’s impressive for that old codger, god rest his soul. Who knew he was so high up in the Putin regime!
 

Explain to me what is controversial about that video, or proves there was some conspiracy to start a war in Ukraine? Anyone with access to intel at the time could have told you that as Putin lost grip through his Ukraine puppet government he was interested in reasserting control and specifically maintaining a Russian Navy presence at the port in Sevastopol. Nearly everything that was predicted ended up happening to a T; not because there was some deep state conspiracy to fight Russia in Ukraine, but because the Putin playbook has been open and known for quite awhile now. For god sakes, the man invaded Georgia under relatively similar circumstances in 2008. 

[Lawman]

He succeeded? Who succeeded? John McCain launched the invasion of Crimea? Shit, I’ve never been a fan of John McCain, but that’s impressive for that old codger, god rest his soul. Who knew he was so high up in the Putin regime!
 
Explain to me what is controversial about that video, or proves there was some conspiracy to start a war in Ukraine? Anyone with access to intel at the time could have told you that as Putin lost grip through his Ukraine puppet government he was interested in reasserting control and specifically maintaining a Russian Navy presence at the port in Sevastopol. Nearly everything that was predicted ended up happening to a T; not because there was some deep state conspiracy to fight Russia in Ukraine, but because the Putin playbook has been open and known for quite awhile now. For god sakes, the man invaded Georgia under relatively similar circumstances in 2008. 

It’s funny that right now Russia has had to pull their Navy back into safe havens even further from where they could steam BEFORE they invaded Crimea.


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[gearhog]

3 hours ago, kaputt said:

He succeeded? Who succeeded? John McCain launched the invasion of Crimea? Shit, I’ve never been a fan of John McCain, but that’s impressive for that old codger, god rest his soul. Who knew he was so high up in the Putin regime!
 

Explain to me what is controversial about that video, or proves there was some conspiracy to start a war in Ukraine? Anyone with access to intel at the time could have told you that as Putin lost grip through his Ukraine puppet government he was interested in reasserting control and specifically maintaining a Russian Navy presence at the port in Sevastopol. Nearly everything that was predicted ended up happening to a T; not because there was some deep state conspiracy to fight Russia in Ukraine, but because the Putin playbook has been open and known for quite awhile now. For god sakes, the man invaded Georgia under relatively similar circumstances in 2008. 

How is it you don't understand what I was referring to when I said he succeeded? I wrote he was there to boost anti-government protestors and bring about a transition to an anti-Russian government, or... regime change. In that, he was successful because that is what happened. I know you're just trying to take a jab, but you're reaching a little there. 😀

"There is no doubt that Ukraine is of vital importance to Putin."

"The beginning of Russia was right here in Kiev, so Putin views it as highly important."

Are you telling me McCain didn't know he was stirring up a hornet's nest? I'm not excusing Russia invading Crimea or Ukraine. But it was obvious that if we "supported" yet another regime change, Putin was going to react. Do you think McCain thought nothing would happen? I'm tired of helping with regime changes. What's our foreign government body count in the last 20-30 years? Which ones went on to become beacons of Democracy? How is Ukraine doing on that front? You do realize Zalensky suspended Ukrainian elections. So what's the f'n point? I want America to be the best and most admired nation on the planet. But I want it to be done the right way, with democracy, integrity, hard work, productivity, and fair dealing. We're slipping into a situation where we no longer on relying on those things to be king of the hill, but bribery, meddling, provocation, and intimidation. What happens when we can no longer purchase or coerce friendship? As evidenced by the growing waiting list of countries appealing to join BRICS, tolerating US foreign policy is no longer worth the US dollars being received by many. "Yeah, but they're shitholes no one cares about." Case in point.

I'm not disparaging America as a whole, but our government has been corrupted. Their actions reflect such, especially this one. I'll mention this again: How can you applaud an escalation toward war when the very same people doing the actual escalating have a track record of failures (AFG), dirty dealings, and corruption? How many threads do we have here on this forum lamenting the state of our leadership? But somehow, on this one issue, these clowns suddenly become chivalrous and noble? If Russia is your enemy, why are you paying someone else to fight them? There is nothing noble in instigating the toppling a government then prodding (forcing) 10s (100s?) of thousands of your allied Ukrainian "friends" to march straight into the meat grinder that results while pretending to be shocked and indignant from the other side of the planet. We're still trying to expand an empire on a rotting foundation. Again: we have a long list of threads here more or less unanimously testifying to such. Economically, Politically, Socially, and Militarily. This doesn't end well for the United States. It should be obvious to anyone willing to set aside their biases and take an objective look.

I'm trying to not be overly confrontational on this, but I'm not arguing for sport, either. I understand your convictions because I also had them. I don't change my mind easily, but I did on this issue because as I tried to sift through the BS and sort out the facts, the story of how our government currently operates kept conflicting with my personal values and belief so often that I could no longer reconcile it. I want to fix America, not Ukraine.

Edited July 21, 2023 by gearhog

[gearhog]

21 July 2023:

US to give Ukraine new $400 million military aid package

By Mike Stone and Steve Holland

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States plans to announce as soon as Tuesday a new military aid package for Ukraine worth up to $400 million, primarily comprised of artillery, air defense missiles and ground vehicles as Ukraine’s counteroffensive grinds on, three U.S. officials said on Friday.

https://wsau.com/2023/07/21/us-to-give-ukraine-new-400-million-military-aid-package/

[ChiliDawg]

On 7/14/2023 at 8:06 AM, BashiChuni said:

the same people who said trump was going to start WW3 are willingly leading us to WW3...

Spoken exactly like your typical MAGA troll🫣

[bfargin]

Ole 500 must have created a new account.

Edited July 22, 2023 by bfargin

[DSG]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/19/cluster-bombs-biden-liberalism-war/

 

Quote

I should probably be more tolerant of some of my liberal antagonists. They might be loath to admit it, but their willingness to abandon their liberal convictions in the face of uncomfortable international realities is itself a powerful vindication of the basic realist perspective. It would be nice if the liberal voices who dominate U.S. foreign-policy discourse were more willing to acknowledge these lapses and less self-righteous when defending their policy recommendations. Public discourse would be more civil and productive, and the success rate of U.S. foreign policy would almost certainly improve.

Some of us just want the self-righteousness to stop.  Is it so much to ask?