Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Lawman]

A Russia that is incapable/unwilling to invade their neighbors and a China that is deterred from making similar attempts would be good outcomes, from a NATO/US/"west" perspective. 
A sovereign, western aligned Ukraine (hopefully with a little less corruption) would be good too, I suppose.  They are both a main actor and a pawn, at the same time, it seems.  Ukraine isn't a particularly vital US partner, but stopping Russia from "flipping the table" of European security is rather important to the US, since that group has a huge chunk of the global economy, influence, and US allies.

The direct foreign exploitation of intel was worth 10 billion alone.

We are getting a brigade/division worth of casualty prevention in any future conflict based solely off knowing their playbook, dissecting equipment, and seeing the shortcomings of a lot of our own.


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[pawnman]

2 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

i asked the question.

we've spend over 100 billion supporting ukraine. to what end? how much more? what's the strategic goal?

is this the next 20 year "war"?

You don't have one. Got it. 

[gearhog]

21 hours ago, Lawman said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/inside-a-russian-disinformation-campaign-in-ukraine-in-2014/2017/12/25/f55b0408-e71d-11e7-ab50-621fe0588340_story.html

An example of the Russian backed BS perspective you’ve been repeating on this very site. Despite all the cited examples of exactly what was being done in the wake of that situation, you’ll probably still act like the Russians were giving us some insight into “what was really going on” while alluding that WAPO writing what I linked is part of some greater propaganda and protection effort by the liberal backed media or some other nonsense.

Did you read the article? The entire basis for the article was the author claimed to have obtained a single document describing how Russia spent 6 days making posts on Facebook. You claim I repeated the things in this article. There is absolutely nothing in that article that were claimed to be said by the GRU propagandists that I repeated. At least your consistent in completely fabricating lies and falsehood, attributing them to me, then swatting at your straw men.

Anyway, I rarely read an article without checking the author for bias. I was surprised to see this when I clicked on her name. Again, same author, same news outlet, that you're using to complain to me about Russia's use of Facebook. You gotta see this:

Really? YOU essentially provided me this quote to make my counter-argument. It's bewildering that you cannot realize how absolutely easy you're making this for me.

Some were recent, they said, and involved posts from the summer that advanced anti-Russia narratives citing the Kremlin’s “imperialist” war in Ukraine and warning of the conflict’s direct impact on Central Asian countries. Significantly, they found that the pretend personas — employing tactics used by countries such as Russia and China — did not gain much traction.

The Pentagon employs people who create fake online accounts to advance "imperialist" war by Russia narratives? You don't say... 😄

So again, Your Author, from Your Source is here denouncing the US DoD for engaging in the exact same thing you're accusing me of. We're up to what? A dozen times or so where I point out a glaring hypocrisy in your argument and you pretend it doesn't exist? Don't you realize that for every reference you provide as evidence of wrong-doing, I can do the same?

Pro tip: You really need to make sure your side of the issue isn't engaged in lies in deceit, when you whine about the other side engaging in... lies and deceit... in exactly the same way.

21 hours ago, Lawman said:

Again, you’re clueless, and what’s worse your willful of it to achieve your political goal. Nobody is fighting you with Ukrainian disinformation, they are telling you you’re an adult sitting in the kiddie pool of “facts” trying to tell us all its unusually warm and that’s some sort of thing caused by our government while the rest of us try to warn you it’s actually just full of piss.

I'm clueless? You just gave me a headline that completely discredited your own position. Sorry, I don't think that's how logic works. Have fun in your pool full of piss or whatever weird analogy you're making. I have no idea.

 

Moving on....

 

Quote

 

The Cost of War

"Since the First World War, more than 600,000 members of the United States armed forces have lost their lives amid a military conflict, according to data maintained by the government."

 

That's a lot of people we've lost in the course of 100 years of conflict. Think about it. WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, IRQ, AFG, SYR, LBY, etc, etc, etc. 100 years.

vs 18 months. Fortunately, not one US service member has died for our friends and allies, the Ukrainians. We pay them to die for our benefit. That's what Patton meant, right?

No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making some other poor dumb bastard die for his country.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 20, 2023 by gearhog

[FourFans]

10 hours ago, gearhog said:

 

I'm not on either side of your debate, but do bear in mind that this is a Russian war.  Historically speaking, they're just getting warmed up.  Russians are decidedly eastern in their views on the value of human life, so using a body-count in any argument concerning this war completely mis-understands the utterly genocidal and horrific cultural context.  Not saying I approve, but facts are facts.

If you want a real tour-de-blood, go look up the Russian revolution or the history of the Cossacks (Ukrainian ancestors).  It's absolutely brutal.

Edited August 20, 2023 by FourFans

[hindsight2020]

1 hour ago, FourFans said:

I'm not on either side of your debate, but do bear in mind that this is a Russian war.  Historically speaking, they're just getting warmed up.  Russians are decidedly eastern in their views on the value of human life, so using a body-count in any argument concerning this war completely mis-understands the utterly genocidal and horrific cultural context.  Not saying I approve, but facts are facts.

If you want a real tour-de-blood, go look up the Russian revolution or the history of the Cossacks (Ukrainian ancestors).  It's absolutely brutal.

yup yup, life is cheap on this planet. Regional mileage on that value will vary, as you point out. 

[Pooter]

On 8/19/2023 at 7:57 PM, Lawman said:

The direct foreign exploitation of intel was worth 10 billion alone.

We are getting a brigade/division worth of casualty prevention in any future conflict based solely off knowing their playbook, dissecting equipment, and seeing the shortcomings of a lot of our own.


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You're not wrong. But remember Russia is likely doing the same as far as FME for our stuff. I would be extremely surprised if Russia doesn't get their hands on a patriot/himars/name your system at some point, and the longer the war drags on the more that likelihood approaches 100%. 
 

There are lots of arguments for and against this war and I'm not getting into that but rather just want to point out FME goes both ways. And expecting Russia not to benefit as well when we're flooding Ukraine with western tech, with little to no oversight, would be very naive. 

[tac airlifter]

12 hours ago, Pooter said:

You're not wrong. But remember Russia is likely doing the same as far as FME for our stuff. I would be extremely surprised if Russia doesn't get their hands on a patriot/himars/name your system at some point, and the longer the war drags on the more that likelihood approaches 100%. 
 

There are lots of arguments for and against this war and I'm not getting into that but rather just want to point out FME goes both ways. And expecting Russia not to benefit as well when we're flooding Ukraine with western tech, with little to no oversight, would be very naive. 

100% valid.  And often overlooked are low dollar (comparatively) individual systems: white phosphorus NVGs, precision machined sniper rifles, optics, composite IBA materials, IR illuminators, etc.  All of which RUS gathers from dead Ukrainians (or buys from shady Ukrainians, we have little oversight) then shares with the Chinese who reverse engineer it.  These are big issues, as the myriad infantry kit improvements we painfully learned during hard years of GWOT are given to our global adversaries.  The rest of my family is Army and this issue is a huge area of risk from their perspective.

[uhhello]

47 minutes ago, tac airlifter said:

100% valid.  And often overlooked are low dollar (comparatively) individual systems: white phosphorus NVGs, precision machined sniper rifles, optics, composite IBA materials, IR illuminators, etc.  All of which RUS gathers from dead Ukrainians (or buys from shady Ukrainians, we have little oversight) then shares with the Chinese who reverse engineer it.  These are big issues, as the myriad infantry kit improvements we painfully learned during hard years of GWOT are given to our global adversaries.  The rest of my family is Army and this issue is a huge area of risk from their perspective.

You don't think China already has that stuff? They do.  

[Boomer6]

Pardon the interruption of your regularly scheduled political circle jerk for the following news from Russia/Ukraine:

https://news.yahoo.com/five-russian-jets-blown-drones-201253205.html

 

[Lawman]

100% valid.  And often overlooked are low dollar (comparatively) individual systems: white phosphorus NVGs, precision machined sniper rifles, optics, composite IBA materials, IR illuminators, etc.  All of which RUS gathers from dead Ukrainians (or buys from shady Ukrainians, we have little oversight) then shares with the Chinese who reverse engineer it.  These are big issues, as the myriad infantry kit improvements we painfully learned during hard years of GWOT are given to our global adversaries.  The rest of my family is Army and this issue is a huge area of risk from their perspective.

I’ve got a lot of bad news for you about those low dollar items and the frequency of their loss during that hard fought years of GWOT. Not even just maliciously stealing our stuff. It was disturbingly common to listen to the team lead in the back and one of his other guys discussing why a KSK walked up the ramp sans NVGs. Dude didn’t sell them, he had just taken them off while he sat in an OP (pulling security in the dark IE napping) because they were uncomfortable and never bothered to pick them back up. And now that kit is in some goat herder that makes 40 dollars a month’s back yard.


I’m not saying the risk isn’t there, but the one sided nature of this conflict in what we are getting and validating is pretty legit. And a nice change of pace given us showing off our playbook for all to see. There is stuff we regarded as world ending equipment that we have learned more about in the last 6 months than the proceeding decade simply because it also got left in a field with some farmers after the lines collapsed or it broke down.


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[tac airlifter]

1 hour ago, Lawman said:

I’ve got a lot of bad news for you about those low dollar items and the frequency of their loss during that hard fought years of GWOT. Not even just maliciously stealing our stuff. It was disturbingly common to listen to the team lead in the back and one of his other guys discussing why a KSK walked up the ramp sans NVGs. Dude didn’t sell them, he had just taken them off while he sat in an OP (pulling security in the dark IE napping) because they were uncomfortable and never bothered to pick them back up. And now that kit is in some goat herder that makes 40 dollars a month’s back yard.


I’m not saying the risk isn’t there, but the one sided nature of this conflict in what we are getting and validating is pretty legit. And a nice change of pace given us showing off our playbook for all to see. There is stuff we regarded as world ending equipment that we have learned more about in the last 6 months than the proceeding decade simply because it also got left in a field with some farmers after the lines collapsed or it broke down.


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Yea I get that you're 100% pro-Ukraine war and every downside is worth it to you.  

I'd submit the shit we gave Afghans is not as good as what we've given UKR, and the volume of their loss is significant according to Army O6/O7s I speak to.  You don't agree and that's fine, but the concern is out there.  I realize what we left in AFG.

[Lawman]

Yea I get that you're 100% pro-Ukraine war and every downside is worth it to you.  
I'd submit the shit we gave Afghans is not as good as what we've given UKR, and the volume of their loss is significant according to Army O6/O7s I speak to.  You don't agree and that's fine, but the concern is out there.  I realize what we left in AFG.

No it’s restating that the level of exploitation far exceeds what most O5/6s who probably don’t operate in an intelligence domain is tracking. And if they’ve been training against a REDFOR model that wasn’t body armor/cyber domain/night vision capable/etc than they’ve been ignoring directives for training that have been in place since ~2016.

Talk to the guys in NGIC or MSIC for actual details on that world. Even in the mundane sections of the mundane areas like logistics and sustainment we are getting to see some really good and likewise really bad ways to conduct a ground war. I would equate this to watching the Israelis take some of our top end stuff into fights with the Arabs using the other sides stuff and getting to watch and record results. How much do you think that kind of information paid off later when we had to go fight the same equipment? We’ve got injects in our division warfighter that are being driven off stuff that surprised us over there, so we get to rehearse instead of see it live for the first time.

There is as of a day ago what would potentially be a strategic weapons delivery platform in a war against NATO that is a pile of ash, along with several of its friends. If Russia is intent on having this war with Ukraine (because they aren’t doing it for any other reason), even if they were to eventually win it, we would be far better suited to bleed them white than let them roll over the Ukrainians. They (Ukraine) can still very much lose this war.


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[brabus]

16 hours ago, uhhello said:

You don't think China already has that stuff? They do.  

 ISIS had their hands on all that many years ago, I’m sure the Chinese and Russians bought some from them. The concern is still valid, but it’s not the first round of our adversaries having access to our ground-based tech. 

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, brabus said:

 ISIS had their hands on all that many years ago, I’m sure the Chinese and Russians bought some from them. The concern is still valid, but it’s not the first round of our adversaries having access to our ground-based tech. 

Yup.  

[Pooter]

Philosophical FME question: who stands to gain more? Us or Russia? Or to put it another way, the more technologically advanced military or the less advanced military?

First off, I'm pretty unconcerned with low dollar high volume items like NVGs or body armor. Nights 1-10 aren't going to be decided by those things.  I'm concerned about high end strategic weapons we are giving to Ukraine with little or no control over what happens to them. The second a patriot launcher gets abandoned in a field, we have a big f-ing problem.

So with that in mind, I'd posit Russia stands to gain more. Because it gives them an opportunity to counter, but most importantly: COPY our best stuff. This is how China leapfrogged Russia in 5th gen fighter development. They just copied the F-22/35 after hacking defense contractors. 
 

Finding out that Russia's new stuff is hot garbage gives everyone a nice warm fuzzy, but it doesn't provide nearly the same exploitation opportunity that Russia will get if they capture some tech a generation or two more advanced than their own. 

[uhhello]

10 minutes ago, Pooter said:

Philosophical FME question: who stands to gain more? Us or Russia? Or to put it another way, the more technologically advanced military or the less advanced military?

First off, I'm pretty unconcerned with low dollar high volume items like NVGs or body armor. Nights 1-10 aren't going to be decided by those things.  I'm concerned about high end strategic weapons we are giving to Ukraine with little or no control over what happens to them. The second a patriot launcher gets abandoned in a field, we have a big f-ing problem.

So with that in mind, I'd posit Russia stands to gain more. Because it gives them an opportunity to counter, but most importantly: COPY our best stuff. This is how China leapfrogged Russia in 5th gen fighter development. They just copied the F-22/35 after hacking defense contractors. 
 

Finding out that Russia's new stuff is hot garbage gives everyone a nice warm fuzzy, but it doesn't provide nearly the same exploitation opportunity that Russia will get if they capture some tech a generation or two more advanced than their own. 

Shot in the dark here but I don't think the Russians were 'behind' throughout most of the cold war and now due to them not having the knowledge/schematics of our advanced systems, its because they lacked the manufacturing precision and capes that the western nations had.  I don't think anything has changed in that aspect.  You can see the deficiencies in manufacturing process throughout all of their advances through the cold war. 

[ecugringo]

Plane crash north of Moscow.  Prigozhin was on the passenger list.

[tac airlifter]

[pawnman]

15 minutes ago, ecugringo said:

Plane crash north of Moscow.  Prigozhin was on the passenger list.

Guess I lost money in the pool. My bet was "polonium tea".

[ecugringo]

2 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Guess I lost money in the pool. My bet was "polonium tea".

I mean did he really think he'd stick around after his coup?  Surprised it took this long.

[Day Man]

[Pooter]

3 hours ago, uhhello said:

Shot in the dark here but I don't think the Russians were 'behind' throughout most of the cold war and now due to them not having the knowledge/schematics of our advanced systems, its because they lacked the manufacturing precision and capes that the western nations had.  I don't think anything has changed in that aspect.  You can see the deficiencies in manufacturing process throughout all of their advances through the cold war. 

Well that's weird, because China's manufacturing quality is also known to be shit, but the moment they got their hands on sensitive F-35 tech data they made the most credible adversary threat aircraft basically out of nowhere.. up to that point only having borrowed Russian designs for decades.  
 

Russia also still makes superior jet engines to China so I don't buy that Russia just doesn't have the machining tolerances to do stealth. 

[Sua Sponte]

Putin finally killed a Nazi.

[raimius]

I'd say that it's less the tech baseline and more production/distribution issues.  Russia has good tech, but they usually don't make a ton of it, and corruption takes a huge cut.

[Sua Sponte]

https://x.com/krassenstein/status/1694399155546865967?s=46&t=ctjFB6W6EEwuK5d_y4et5g