Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[gearhog]

33 minutes ago, disgruntledemployee said:

I'm with CH on this one.  0.08% of their total population isn't the big deal, 120K/total size of military forces is the big deal.  Vietnam is a decent analogy.  Geopolitically, when Putin is replaced, Russia might change their game for the better, haven been sickened by a stupid war by a super stupid man.

As for the superpower point, it's still fair to say they still have enough nukes to cut the earth in half.

As for the Chiner thing, if it comes to blows, maybe that debt they hold becomes worthless, that is, canceled. 

Party on

I think we, in the West, have an altogether different understanding of war and death. I encourage you to watch the entire thing if you haven't already seen it, but the 5:00 mark makes my point. We have a very long way to go if we think we're going to attrit the Russians into submission.

 

[ViperMan]

1 hour ago, disgruntledemployee said:

As for the Chiner thing, if it comes to blows, maybe that debt they hold becomes worthless, that is, canceled.

Boom. Roasted. Stroke of a pen.

Edited October 18, 2023 by ViperMan

[Biff_T]

30 minutes ago, gearhog said:

I think we, in the West, have an altogether different understanding of war and death. I encourage you to watch the entire thing if you haven't already seen it, but the 5:00 mark makes my point. We have a very long way to go if we think we're going to attrit the Russians into submission.

 

Russians dont care about dead Russians.  There are some interesting German diaries on youtube from officers involved in Stalingrad.  Pretty gnarly. 

 

[ClearedHot]

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

"We're taking out a global superpower." Why is anyone calling Russia a superpower? Primacy of learning. We were taught as kids that they were the big baddies 40 years ago and forgot to check and see if they still met the criteria. Look at the infographic I posted above. They're number 10 or 11 in the world economy. It is because they have nukes? They're one of maybe 10. They're no more a superpower than Brazil or Italy. What is the only thing Russia has going for it? Energy. Something that is finite in supply and the rest of the world, especially the West, has a growing appetite for. The real lesson here is "Don't fuck with the petro-dollar." Soverignty, Freedom, Anti-Authoritism, is all made up BS to garner public support. Those things exist en masse in countless places around the globe. Somehow it only matters when energy and wealth are involved.

They have nukes and ambition unlike Brazil and Italy.  Also, we are now fighting our FIFTH proxy war with Russia.  Whether or not they meet your definition of a Superpower they have been a pacing threat for almost 70 years and have aggressively threatened our interests around the world.

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

"It's a bargain". I have sister-in-law that that likes to shop. They're in a $350K house, up to their assholes in debt, and she's bringing home some bullshit knick-knack doo-dads because they were a good deal at 50% off. Well, he, an engineer, recently got a pink slip because the DoD decided they really didn't robot fuel trucks as bad as weapons for Ukraine and now I'm supposed to bail them out by buying their things they shouldn't have charged to the credit card in the first place. Sorry, that's your debt, not mine. Who is buying our debt? China currently owns about a trillion dollars worth of US treasuries. In a conflict, they would use that to wreck our economy. By indebting ourselves to fight one foe, we're exposing ourselves to another.

Our debt is obviously a huge issue, that being said thus far we have given Ukraine $113B, which represents 22.5 days of deficit debt accumulation at our current rate...yes, that is a HUGE bargain.

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

120,000 of 143,000,000 is eight one-hundredths of one percent. If 15% of the DoD budget is an insignificant number, what is .08% of Russian population? I do agree with you, however. Overall, Russia is facing a demographic problem and has been since long before this war. The war isn't moving the needle. But if they are facing a demographic collapse, wouldn't that further substantiate my position that they were/are not a viable threat?

Data should ALWAYS be be viewed in context.  When you look at your math it seems like no big deal, I can assure you it is a HUGE deal.  Look at the graphic below, it is not about the impact total population, it is about impact to males in younger age groups, especially in a population with an aging problem like Russia.  While it may only be .08 of the total population, these deaths have touched every town and village in Russia.  Keep in mind, the number of wounded is double further impacting the working population of males in Russia that will support the growing bubble at the top.  Russia conscripts between the ages of 18 and 27, that group of males has a population of 3.9M, the impact of killed and wounded cuts that seven year group of men by over 12%...that my friend is a HUGE deal. And again, the birth rate behind these year groups is decreasing.  They are seriously F'd and yes that offers challenges but it does reduce the likelihood that they try to invade another neighbor.

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

This is an immensely complicated issue

Amen brother.

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

I love my country, and I love my life in it.

I think 99% of the folks on this forum feel the same.  Regardless of political affiliation or social belief everyone is part of the 1% that stepped forward to "Support and Defend the Constitution of the United States."   I am thankful for each and every one of you REGARDLESS of what side of the aisle your beliefs reside.

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

After trying to consume and process as much information as I can, attempt to eliminate my biases, it seems apparent to me that the biggest threats to me, my family, and my community are coming from within, not without. I can appreciate that my worldview may not be 100% correct and I've said before that I'm willing to abandon it if presented with a better one.

I think we face threats both outside and inside.  I am certainly not the expert on Russia but I have had a particular interest in them since I wrote a paper on them in War College that ultimately led to me to traveling there on exchange.  This war has and will change their society.

[StoleIt]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

For all you savvy investors out there, your one take away should be: impending fire sale on RussianBrides.com

[Lord Ratner]

7 hours ago, ecugringo said:

Arent Ukrainian Males in forced conscription?  So yeah they kinda are forced to fight.

The war goes back to 2014 with the Maiden uprising.  Losing the pro Russia govt is what pushed Putin. The question is how involved was the US in those uprisings?  State Dept was there.  Not saying this is just cause for Putin but an expansion eastward of Western influence put him in a defensive position.

A question to ask is if/when western support dries up in Ukraine and Russia eventually wins...will that loss of life be worth it for Ukraine?  Did we just help delay the inevitable and cause more death and destruction for a goal of making Putin's military weaker.

I dont think Putin is stupid.  I think a lot of things going on now are all related.

I said multiple times, forced by the US. I do not care if Ukraine forces their men to fight. We have a draft as well. 

 

He wasn't in a "defensive position" because no one was going to attack Russia. Are we in a "defensive position" when Mexico elects an anti-US president? No. We aren't.

 

It is Ukraine's job to decide what is worth fighting. It is our job to decide what is worth supporting. Mixing the two makes a false argument. 

 

[ClearedHot]

Great article summarizing what I posted the other day.

Russian Statistics Service forecasts extinction of Russian population at speed of up to 700,000 people a year

 

Another data point on the impact of the war draining the population of men.

Russian Defense Ministry starts to recruit women for war in Ukraine

[BashiChuni]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1830801/volodymyr-zelensky-ukraine-war-russia-winning

[gearhog]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1830801/volodymyr-zelensky-ukraine-war-russia-winning

Here is the TIME article referenced in which Ukraine is reported to be "struggling" to keep it together. It certainly doesn't portray the situation positively. In fact, the author makes it sound almost hopeless.

It appears the Ukr gov't is dealing with exhaustion, apathy, waning public and international support, decreased funding, simply running out of people to forcibly conscript and launch against a brick wall. When the funding declines, the well-documented corrupt UKR gov't will fracture, and they'll turn on Zelensky, be forced to the table, and ultimately capitulate.

When they do, what happens to the 100 Billion dollars in aid and equipment that we have delivered to Ukraine?

We couldn't believe it when our leadership left 7 Billion worth of shit behind in Afghanistan.

Imagine the disgrace and shame of doing the same in Ukraine. After all... all the same people are in charge of this mess.

[HossHarris]

Not to put too fine a point on it, but that 100 billion killed a lot of Russians with zero risk to us forces. A win by any accounting. 

[Standby]

56 minutes ago, HossHarris said:

Not to put too fine a point on it, but that 100 billion killed a lot of Russians with zero risk to us forces. A win by any accounting. 

Some fine Americans are not happy that you don’t think that they are hanging it out in Ukraine right now. 

[gearhog]

1 hour ago, HossHarris said:

Not to put too fine a point on it, but that 100 billion killed a lot of Russians with zero risk to us forces. A win by any accounting. 

Disagree. I've addressed this exact point at least three times in this thread, but that's okay because I want to add a few things and take another stab at it.

What did we win? Did we thwart the plans of an evil superpower that amassing a Nazi-like war machine preparing to march across the European continent, and ultimately prevent the global domination and enslavement of the planet by Putin? I will concede that our $100 billion reduced the probability of that happening by an amount.

It starting to seem to me that the arguments are shifting from "We're gonna defeat Russia, send them back across the border, and restore Ukraine to it's former glory" to... "Well, okay. Maybe they won't be defeated. Maybe Ukraine will never be made whole, but damnit we sure killed a lot of Russkies! High Five! Guys? Don't leave me hangin'."

Our current leadership, with it's track record of incredible failures, indebted you and I to the tune of $100+ Billion for Ukraine, $14 Billion today for Israel. The US Treasury borrowed $776 Billion to pay our bills the last three months of this year and will borrow $816 Billion in just the first three months next year, just to keep the lights on. That money is being extracted from your future earnings, laundered overseas, and inserted into the pockets of those who are advocating for this conflict. What amazes me is you're praising them for it.

Do you honestly think to yourself, "My life is better and safer because X00,000 Russians are dead?"

What also amazes me are the X00,000 dead Ukrainians who are conveniently left out of the accounting spreadsheet that declares this a "win". Do you know any Ukrainians? Would you be comfortable expressing to them what a spectacular bargain this has been for us? I should probably stop typing.

EDIT: $113 Billion divided by 300,000 Russian casualties = $376,000 per bad guy.

"Bargain"

WTF.

 

 

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by gearhog

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, gearhog said:

Disagree. I've addressed this exact point at least three times in this thread, but that's okay because I want to add a few things and take another stab at it.

What did we win? Did we thwart the plans of an evil superpower that amassing a Nazi-like war machine preparing to march across the European continent, and ultimately prevent the global domination and enslavement of the planet by Putin? I will concede that our $100 billion reduced the probability of that happening by an amount.

It starting to seem to me that the arguments are shifting from "We're gonna defeat Russia, send them back across the border, and restore Ukraine to it's former glory" to... "Well, okay. Maybe they won't be defeated. Maybe Ukraine will never be made whole, but damnit we sure killed a lot of Russkies! High Five! Guys? Don't leave me hangin'."

Our current leadership, with it's track record of incredible failures, indebted you and I to the tune of $100+ Billion for Ukraine, $14 Billion today for Israel. The US Treasury borrowed $776 Billion to pay our bills the last three months of this year and will borrow $816 Billion in just the first three months next year, just to keep the lights on. That money is being extracted from your future earnings, laundered overseas, and inserted into the pockets of those who are advocating for this conflict. What amazes me is you're praising them for it.

Do you honestly think to yourself, "My life is better and safer because X00,000 Russians are dead?"

What also amazes me are the X00,000 dead Ukrainians who are conveniently left out of the accounting spreadsheet that declares this a "win". Do you know any Ukrainians? Would you be comfortable expressing to them what a spectacular bargain this has been for us? I should probably stop typing.

EDIT: $113 Billion divided by 300,000 Russian casualties = $376,000 per bad guy.

"Bargain"

WTF.

 

 

 

Are there wars with a better cost/kill? WWII was about $4 trillion. Vietnam was about $1 trillion. And if you factor in the value associated with each lost American life, the math is even more favorable.

 

I've been pretty consistent throughout this war. If the Ukrainians no longer wish to fight and die, then they should end the war. They have every ability to do so. They were given the best opportunity they'd ever have to win, and it looks like they failed at their stated objective. But the entire world has a much different view of what the "superpowers" (China particularly) can accomplish in an invasion of a Western-supported nation. 

 

Does that mean the idiots in charge have or ever had a plan? Almost certainly not. I'm not making a commentary on the decision making of the people in charge, merely the reality of what has happened and where we are after it. And as you and I have talked about before, I disagree with your financial reasoning. The money is not going to be saved, there is not going to be fiscal discipline. We are going to spend ourselves into hyperinflation, as evidenced by the fact that the "hardcore" conservative elected as speaker of the house is in favor of another continuing resolution. We are not going to get politicians on either side who will control spending, because the voters electing them do not want spending controlled. You and I are in the minority.

 

That's why I don't care about the deficit contributions implicit in support for Ukraine. I see our financial collapse (not societal collapse) as a set point in the future, and the only question is what the deficit spending is going to go towards. I would rather it go towards weakening our adversaries than extending social security or Medicare for another couple years at the end of this fantastically irresponsible debt bender.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Lord Ratner

[BashiChuni]

“It is increasingly clear that the only rational way out will be to negotiate, not as victors but as an honorable people who lived up to the pledge to defend democracy."

Walter Cronkite 1968

[gearhog]

7 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Are there wars with a better cost/kill? WWII was about $4 trillion. Vietnam was about $1 trillion. And if you factor in the value associated with each lost American life, the math is even more favorable.

I've been pretty consistent throughout this war. If the Ukrainians no longer wish to fight and die, then they should end the war. They have every ability to do so. They were given the best opportunity they'd ever have to win, and it looks like they failed at their stated objective. But the entire world has a much different view of what the "superpowers" (China particularly) can accomplish in an invasion of a Western-supported nation.

What value are you placing on an American life? When you come up with one, put it in a math equation, and I'll be happy to give you my take on the cost/kill. Remember, we had to abandon the gold standard to finance the war in Vietnam ultimately leading us to position we are in today. We didn't win that one and we don't have that option again.

The Ukrainians don't get to decide if they wish to fight ad die. Zelenski gets to decide, and also remember, he cancelled the the March 2024 elections so that the people CAN'T decide. How much sense does it make to claim you're helping save Ukrainian people from a tyrannical dictatorship while supporting their "democracy" that is transitioning to... a tyrannical dictatorship?

Do you honestly believe the world has been shocked into submission by the our support to our allies and ability to win wars? Because it certainly doesn't seem that way. Conflicts are popping off all over the place at rate greater than our ability to quell them. Quite the opposite, our strategic opponents smell blood in the water and are further emboldened by obvious inability to actually win anything.

7 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Does that mean the idiots in charge have or ever had a plan? Almost certainly not. I'm not making a commentary on the decision making of the people in charge, merely the reality of what has happened and where we are after it. And as you and I have talked about before, I disagree with your financial reasoning. The money is not going to be saved, there is not going to be fiscal discipline. We are going to spend ourselves into hyperinflation, as evidenced by the fact that the "hardcore" conservative elected as speaker of the house is in favor of another continuing resolution. We are not going to get politicians on either side who will control spending, because the voters electing them do not want spending controlled. You and I are in the minority.

That's why I don't care about the deficit contributions implicit in support for Ukraine. I see our financial collapse (not societal collapse) as a set point in the future, and the only question is what the deficit spending is going to go towards. I would rather it go towards weakening our adversaries than extending social security or Medicare for another couple years at the end of this fantastically irresponsible debt bender.

Ok, so everyone knows the financial system is on life support and the days are numbered. Today, you can go to the bank, withdraw cash, go anywhere you want, and exchange it for something of value. Replace your vehicle, do some home repairs, invest in equipment for a small business, etc. You can also use it to help someone who needs those things more than you. Our government, knowing the end is near, could just as easily take those coupons with an expiration date, and trade them for hard, durable assets. They have a choice. They could improve infrastructure, roads, bridges, schools, factories, etc. They could convert that cash to power plants, oil reserves, food reserves, raw materials, border security, and other things that would sustain the American people through an economic downturn.

Instead, they choose to convert those soon to be defunct dollars to "foreign aid" and send them overseas while telling you the baddies are conspiring to sap and impurify your precious bodily fluids. Why would they do this? Because a large portion of that public debt and "foreign aid" returns to them, personally, in the form of checks to offshore banks, business deals, board positions, consultant fees at defense contractors, overperforming investments, etc. Then, they can convert those dollars to real assets for themselves instead of real assets for you. The senior deal makers at the top have zero concern for your best interests. As a matter of fact, most of them are so far removed from the average American, or Ukrainian, or Israeli that they can't even understand your needs or perspective.

Most, not all, are playing Monopoly with the productive value you, not them, have brought to the American economy. And it is a game for them. In Monopoly, they're given a random opportunity to make a transaction or exchange. When a conflict happens, such as the one in Ukraine or Israel, it presents vast numbers of these opportunities. The game only progresses in one direction, that is fewer people end up with more money, and eventually if the game is allowed to continue ad infinitum, one person ends up with it all.

So knowing that conflict presents more random opportunities to conduct these random transactions (thereby increasing the probability of enriching oneself), what is the greater incentive, investing in peace and prosperity at home, or investing in, or even promoting, conflict abroad?

[gearhog]

Uh oh, the narrative is collapsing faster than even I expected.

I honestly can't believe this aired tonight.

https://x.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1720588620640489750?s=20

Edited November 4, 2023 by gearhog

[BashiChuni]

The grift is up. The big fish made their money and are ready to move on. Why? Because from the beginning NO ONE gave two fucks about Ukraine. But they convinced YOU that YOU cared about Ukraine. 

[gearhog]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

The grift is up. The big fish made their money and are ready to move on. Why? Because from the beginning NO ONE gave two fucks about Ukraine. But they convinced YOU that YOU cared about Ukraine. 

I can't believe you're falling for this Russian propaganda. Clearly, you hate America. 😄

Think you'll see any of your critics admit they were wrong in this thread when we finally bail on this pathetic shit show? That they spent a lot of time denigrating you and I while supporting the actions of leadership that has failed us time and again? Nah, they'll just say "We achieved our strategic objectives" or "We weren't really trying to defeat Russia, just weaken them." or "We're taking one on the chin to generously save the world from a nuclear apocalypse" Then they'll just quietly move on to the next "Thing" and get themselves all worked up trying to perform the mental gymnastics necessary to argue on behalf of the approved narrative. Zero self-reflection. Israel will be the next boat anchor around our necks.

It's so incredibly easy to understand the world and be successful in it when a person (nation) can honestly look in the mirror and hold themselves to account first. Sometimes you're the problem. Fix that before trying to pin your fears and blame on everyone else.

Is it too early to try and start accounting for all the money and equipment we'll abandon over there before it ends up on the black market and in the hands of our enemies?

 

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by gearhog

[BashiChuni]

Look at how the Covid freaks on this website responded. Absolutely zero humility or admitting they were wrong. 
 

I expect the same reaction from our “Ukraine victory or death” crowd. 

[Lord Ratner]

10 hours ago, gearhog said:

Uh oh, the narrative is collapsing faster than even I expected.

I honestly can't believe this aired tonight.

https://x.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1720588620640489750?s=20

What I'm more interested in is "why." They stalled out months ago, so why are the supporters in the media suddenly against the effort? 

 

I'm always fascinated by how the Democrat Machine shifts it's position and why. The Republicans aren't nearly as coordinated or consistent.

[gearhog]

1 minute ago, Lord Ratner said:

What I'm more interested in is "why." They stalled out months ago, so why are the supporters in the media suddenly against the effort?

I'm always fascinated by how the Democrat Machine shifts it's position and why. The Republicans aren't nearly as coordinated or consistent.

I'm trying to figure that, also. It's as though a switch was flipped yesterday. I searched "Ukraine Stalemate" in Google news and it seems all Western media is reporting on that all at once.

Here's ABC news claiming this was something they knew all along. Ugh, https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-generals-view-war-stalemate-appears-recognition-failed/story?id=104576525

My theory is: if I can reach a conclusion just from trying to glean a handful of facts from an ocean of bullshit, I know the media has been sitting on much more, and finally realized that reality can't be concealed, and it's time to cut bait and get ahead of yet another Biden Admin embarrassment.

[HeloDude]

2 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

What I'm more interested in is "why." They stalled out months ago, so why are the supporters in the media suddenly against the effort? 

 

I'm always fascinated by how the Democrat Machine shifts it's position and why. The Republicans aren't nearly as coordinated or consistent.

Is it just a coincidence that this shift is happening around the same time that the leftist media is somewhere in between (at best) questioning how Israel should respond to their horrible terrorist attack and (at worst) supporting the claim that Israel accepts some of the blame for the attack, or are totally to blame because of their “occupation” or “genocide of the Palestinians”?  You can’t say you support and want to spend money defending a democracy in Ukraine when they’re attacked, but then say the opposite about Israel. 

[Lord Ratner]

58 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Is it just a coincidence that this shift is happening around the same time that the leftist media is somewhere in between (at best) questioning how Israel should respond to their horrible terrorist attack and (at worst) supporting the claim that Israel accepts some of the blame for the attack, or are totally to blame because of their “occupation” or “genocide of the Palestinians”?  You can’t say you support and want to spend money defending a democracy in Ukraine when they’re attacked, but then say the opposite about Israel. 

Yeah, that could have something to do with it. Maybe medium probability?

 

It's also possible that they realize things are spinning out of control on a global level. Again this is something I've said before that I consider to be inevitable, but if the usual power brokers are starting to fear a chain reaction, they're going to try to get ahead of it so they can claim to have been on the right side of the debate when things get really messy. I think the Democrats have been looking for an excuse to turn on Biden for a couple years now, but every time they seem to make a move they either lose their will or something works out well for Biden. Maybe the impending failure of Ukraine combined with their multi-cultural coalition falling apart over Israel has emboldened them to make a move.

 

But I don't think they have a replacement.

[Clark Griswold]

3 hours ago, HeloDude said:

You can’t say you support and want to spend money defending a democracy in Ukraine when they’re attacked, but then say the opposite about Israel. 

Sure you can if you're a bunch of know nothing lying hypocrites who are full of shit

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, Lord Ratner said:

Yeah, that could have something to do with it. Maybe medium probability?

 

It's also possible that they realize things are spinning out of control on a global level. Again this is something I've said before that I consider to be inevitable, but if the usual power brokers are starting to fear a chain reaction, they're going to try to get ahead of it so they can claim to have been on the right side of the debate when things get really messy. I think the Democrats have been looking for an excuse to turn on Biden for a couple years now, but every time they seem to make a move they either lose their will or something works out well for Biden. Maybe the impending failure of Ukraine combined with their multi-cultural coalition falling apart over Israel has emboldened them to make a move.

 

But I don't think they have a replacement.

If what you’re trying to say is that every policy decision (regardless of who is in charge) is political, then I most definitely agree with you.  Just like other have said, no one at the higher levels of government actually cared about Ukraine and their “democracy” (they’re pretty corrupt btw)…but that’s how it was continuously sold the last 1.5 years.  So what changed?

As for wanting to get rid of Biden but struggling because the question of who would they put in…I don’t disagree per se that this is what’s happening, but the clock is ticking.  So unless they want to have the Dem convention select a candidate, and I don’t think that would go over well, even for many democrats, much less independents, they need to get on it and fast.  If I had to pick an outcome, Biden is their guy unless he can not longer even speak in front of a camera.  And if that were to happen, how does he not resign and Harris take over before the election?  I’m only about 60% confident Biden will be their guy btw.

So back to the Ukraine piece—I think the Dems will blame it on the GOP (shocker) when funding stops or becomes much, much less of what it is now.  And then the Dems will pivot the focus away from foreign policy and back to abortion, race stuff, and more welfare here in our country.