Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Biff_T]

On 12/22/2023 at 6:44 AM, uhhello said:

Russians lost three SU-34 yesterday.  UKR must have cooked up something special.  

Nice!

[uhhello]

Shocking!!!

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/23/europe/ukraine-defense-ministry-official-detained-embezzlement-intl/index.html

[Biff_T]

On 12/23/2023 at 2:13 PM, uhhello said:

Shocking!!!

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/23/europe/ukraine-defense-ministry-official-detained-embezzlement-intl/index.html

[Clayton Bigsby]

On 12/22/2023 at 6:44 AM, uhhello said:

Russians lost three SU-34 yesterday.  UKR must have cooked up something special.  

And lost another landing ship (loaded with munitions apparently) today.  Big boom. 

I think I’d read another Su-34 and possibly Su-30 brought down as well. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Clayton Bigsby

[Clark Griswold]

Are any of these Russian AF losses (the recent Su-30, 35) attributed to any publicly acknowledged system?

Related question, have the Ukrainians gained a BVR capability? IIRC they were mentioned in a YouTube video on the state of the air war in Ukraine as not having one and hence at a big disadvantage vs the Russians, I think it was Bronk on Carroll’s channel.

Not trolling from a cubicle in Moscow but if anyone can say inquiring minds would like to know


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[uhhello]

16 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

Are any of these Russian AF losses (the recent Su-30, 35) attributed to any publicly acknowledged system?

Related question, have the Ukrainians gained a BVR capability? IIRC they were mentioned in a YouTube video on the state of the air war in Ukraine as not having one and hence at a big disadvantage vs the Russians, I think it was Bronk on Carroll’s channel.

Not trolling from a cubicle in Moscow but if anyone can say inquiring minds would like to know


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I haven't seen any system claimed to be behind it.  UKR has officially denied F-16 operations.  

[Lawman]

Are any of these Russian AF losses (the recent Su-30, 35) attributed to any publicly acknowledged system?

Related question, have the Ukrainians gained a BVR capability? IIRC they were mentioned in a YouTube video on the state of the air war in Ukraine as not having one and hence at a big disadvantage vs the Russians, I think it was Bronk on Carroll’s channel.

Not trolling from a cubicle in Moscow but if anyone can say inquiring minds would like to know


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You know how the Russians bill their IADS construct as more the total sum of the whole vs the sum of its parts? Big telephone pole systems in the support zone acting as arsenal sinks to throw arrows at a wide array of data linked sensors in the battle and disruptions zones and from the ground achieve true airspace denial?….


Well ours do that too… it’s just NATO thought it out further in making sure the systems actually did it instead of just print it on a pamphlet to be later handed out by strippers at an arms bazaar.


I don’t know what you guys are getting all excited about though, this is clearly all fake news spread by the western political arm of media disinformation. Remember the Ukrainians are wholesale losing this war… Vlad said so.
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[McJay Pilot]

Could be that we’ve wised up and stopped announcing new weapons/capes beforehand and are letting the Russkies figure it out the old fashioned way.

[Lawman]

Could be that we’ve wised up and stopped announcing new weapons/capes beforehand and are letting the Russkies figure it out the old fashioned way.

Oh we’ve been announcing plenty of things…

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/delta-system-has-proven-its-compatibility-with-link-16/

https://mwi.westpoint.edu/patriot-missiles-nato-and-ukraine-tactical-weapons-with-strategic-impacts/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/ukraine-himars-rocket-artillery-russia/

The bigger point is a lot of people in our own country are disinterested in hearing it and buying into narratives that say Ukraine can’t win and we should just let the Russians have it.


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[BashiChuni]

no a lot of people in our country don't buy the bullshit propaganda narrative of the globalists that it's ukraine or death.

ukraine absolutely cannot win this fight. negotiation is their best way forward. facts not emotion.

but keep stroking it to tom clanceys red storm rising

[raimius]

18 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

no a lot of people in our country don't buy the bullshit propaganda narrative of the globalists that it's ukraine or death.

ukraine absolutely cannot win this fight. negotiation is their best way forward. facts not emotion.

but keep stroking it to tom clanceys red storm rising

They decisively blunted the first push, then gained initiative to push back, and are now in a stalemate.  I don't see how that is a "absolutely cannot win" scenario, so long as outside sources are willing to give them more weapons, ammo, and support.  Sure 1v1 Ukraine would lose...but it doesn't have to be 1v1.

[uhhello]

57 minutes ago, raimius said:

They decisively blunted the first push, then gained initiative to push back, and are now in a stalemate.  I don't see how that is a "absolutely cannot win" scenario, so long as outside sources are willing to give them more weapons, ammo, and support.  Sure 1v1 Ukraine would lose...but it doesn't have to be 1v1.

Watching the daily OSINT videos, the Russian army 'tactics' using outmatched equipment and bottom of barrel conscripted forces with no training can't keep it up for much longer I wouldn't imagine.  Seeing the daily meat wave attacks isn't good for Russia.  Ukrainian losses are high as well but from what I can find on X, the survivability is much greater in western equipment which keeps the UKR losses lower.  

[ViperStud]

It’s not 1v1 even if Ukraine support were to evaporate. Russia has the support of Iran, Belarus and NK via weapons and use of land/airspace during the war. China also has their back with a permanent seat on the security council to ensure the UN doesn’t write a letter that’s too sternly worded against Putin. 
 

I still don’t understand how a significant faction of our last great president’s (Reagan) party has taken the pro-Putin/Russia stance. Conspiracy theories drive people to some fvcked up places. 

[Danger41]

20 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

 

but keep stroking it to tom clanceys red storm rising

Thanks for the inspiration to type that into YouTube. Amazing trip down Memory Lane!

 

[HeloDude]

53 minutes ago, ViperStud said:

I still don’t understand how a significant faction of our last great president’s (Reagan) party has taken the pro-Putin/Russia stance. Conspiracy theories drive people to some fvcked up places. 

Do you really equate being against giving Ukraine tens of billions of dollars (on top of the previous tens of billions) as being pro-Putin? 

[ViperStud]

6 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Do you really equate being against giving Ukraine tens of billions of dollars (on top of the previous tens of billions) as being pro-Putin? 

Im not equating them, but unfortunately I’ve watched a few friends go deep down the path of equating Ukraine support to love for Hunter Biden. 
 

If we’d accurately poll people on three things - Ukraine apathy, Biden family hatred and Putin apologism - there would be a lot of overlap on the venn diagram. Maybe “pro-Putin” was a bit strong. R/R with “Putin apologist.”

[herkbum]

Thanks for the inspiration to type that into YouTube. Amazing trip down Memory Lane!
[/url]  

One of my favorite books. I miss Tom Clancy.


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[tac airlifter]

1 hour ago, ViperStud said:

I still don’t understand how a significant faction of our last great president’s (Reagan) party has taken the pro-Putin/Russia stance. 

Can you point me to a pro-Putin stance articulated by a Republican?  
 

I am not a Republican, so I won’t defend what they say, just curious what you’re talking about because it does not check with counterpoints I’ve seen to the “cult of agreement without debate” that is our UKR policy.  I personally think it unwise to pauper ourselves by enriching the corrupt dictatorship in Ukraine.  I appreciate the coldhearted calculation of using Ukrainian people to degrade the Russian military, our historic strategic adversary.  And I appreciate the Machiavellian political ruse of pretending this issue presents only the binary choice of supporting Putin or protecting democracy; it has worked on several dumb people and I do like effective TTPs.  

But ultimately I cannot support what we’re doing in UKR because I don’t believe we can afford it.  And I don’t think the geniuses who oversaw 20 years of GWOT are capable of doing this one correctly.  I hope you don’t mistake this viewpoint as pro-Russian aggression.

 

[BashiChuni]

52 minutes ago, ViperStud said:

Im not equating them, but unfortunately I’ve watched a few friends go deep down the path of equating Ukraine support to love for Hunter Biden. 
 

If we’d accurately poll people on three things - Ukraine apathy, Biden family hatred and Putin apologism - there would be a lot of overlap on the venn diagram. Maybe “pro-Putin” was a bit strong. R/R with “Putin apologist.”

just wait until you see the "defending democracy" venn diagram...

[ViperStud]

43 minutes ago, tac airlifter said:

Can you point me to a pro-Putin stance articulated by a Republican?

Unfortunately the front runner for the nomination is on record praising the man repeatedly. Clips are easy to find. The faction I refer to are his loyal supporters who blindly support every radical claim; fortunately mainstream politicians are smart enough not to take that stance. 
 

I would rephrase your claim of “using” the Ukrainians to simply state that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, or ally. We spend far more on way less than helping to attrit the strength of our second largest geopolitical foe, one whose recent land-grabbing has scared many European nations into action. 
 

There’s plenty of room for discussion on how to support them and how much is too much. Outright dismissal of their cause because of some corruption in the government is laughable. We’ve given aid to countries like KSA, Pakistan, Egypt and a host of others for years. I’ve been TDY to places that deal only in cash and I’m certain as soon as I left some on-base offices they started handing it around. It’s a convenient excuse to drum up now when it’s been largely tolerated for decades. 

[BashiChuni]

10 minutes ago, ViperStud said:

 

Outright dismissal of their cause because of some corruption in the government is laughable. We’ve given aid to countries like KSA, Pakistan, Egypt and a host of others for years. I’ve been TDY to places that deal only in cash and I’m certain as soon as I left some on-base offices they started handing it around. It’s a convenient excuse to drum up now when it’s been largely tolerated for decades. 

yeah how's that fucking worked out for us the last 20 years?

[ViperStud]

Just now, BashiChuni said:

yeah how's that fucking worked out for us the last 20 years?

We’re not batting zero. Every single geopolitical relationship/crisis is not exactly the same and easily summed up with a bumper sticker slogan 🤦‍♂️; unfortunately that’s all some people have the brainpower to process.

They are called transactional relationships. These transactions are the very foundation of international politics, especially between countries with little in common. KSA is a counterbalance to Iran; they hate each other. I spent several months in Riyadh and their military guys reminded me daily. Not to mention they essentially are OPEC. Pakistan gave us overflight rights then stabbed us in the back hiding UBL. Egypt has flailed wildly back and forth, but again - overflight. Look at some of the countries we’ve sold Vipers to just to keep a security partnership foothold in the region. 
 

Are you really arguing in favor of isolationism? Yeah, that’s worked out well in the past. Let’s just pull back completely annd everything will work out great 🥴.

[BashiChuni]

post wwii you're batting zero in every major engagement i count. our foreign policy is a god damn disaster and it's led by a corrupt group of incompetent bureaucrats. no thanks.

[ViperStud]

Korea, Grenada, Libia, Kosovo, Gulf 1 are some successes off the top of my head. Our involvement in each is arguably larger than current in UKR, especially direct troop support. Take your head out of Trump’s ass long enough to read a book or two 😂

[tac airlifter]

7 hours ago, ViperStud said:

Unfortunately the front runner for the nomination is on record praising the man repeatedly. Clips are easy to find.
 

I would rephrase your claim of “using” the Ukrainians to simply state that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, or ally. We spend far more on way less....

I looked and cannot find a single "pro-Putin"  quote from Trump. If you could provide something specific, I would possibly better understand your point.  FYI, a world leader saying "hey I met this guy, he's not the devil, we can work together" is normal dialogue.  Post UKR war Trump maturely stated (paraphrasing) "yes Putin is a killer, but there are lots of killers and I'll work with everyone to secure a peace deal."  If you can find actual Putin knob gobbling please post, otherwise your point is disproven.

For your second point, yes, I'm sure you would rephrase it to sound cleaner. However the coldhearted truth is we are sacrificing a generation of Ukrainian youth to attrit our historic geo-political foe.  We are military professionals not politicians, I'm not being judgmental about the tactic. But speak plainly to me rather than disguise the action with flowery language.

Yes, paying a UKR dictator to forcibly conscript his citizens to kill Russians, blow up their stuff at scale and ascertain which of our systems work best is effective.  Let's sidestep the morality discussion. This tactic is an elegant solution for now, but I don't think we can afford it on the time scale UKR would require to eject all Russian forces from its territory (their definition of "win").   Starting from that assumption on my part (that our country is incapable of multibillion-dollar aid packages in perpetuity) I think it's strategically in our interest to find a new approach forward in UKR to secure our interests.  To be clear, that likely involves accepting Russia holds portions of the Eastern territory and we cease NATO expansion eastward.  I'm fine with both concessions, we have bigger concerns elsewhere.

1 hour ago, ViperStud said:

Korea, Grenada, Libia, Kosovo, Gulf 1 are some successes off the top of my head. Our involvement in each is arguably larger than current in UKR, especially direct troop support. Take your head out of Trump’s ass long enough to read a book or two 😂

Korea?  Not a single Korean War vet I've met thinks the effort was a "success" and worth watching their buddies freeze to death.  And the unfavorable situation has continued to plague us.  

Libya?  Last time I was there (post invasion) it was a total shit show that the world has forgotten but terrorist organizations have not.  Our countries interests were much better served with Kadafi holding an iron grip on the country.  If you know anything about the war or were involved in fighting it, you'll know that his massive arms stockpiles were stolen and proliferated both to Syria (throwing gasoline on that simmering Civil War) and also across the African continent resulting in the rise of leaders like MBM and organizations like AQIM & Boko Haram.  

Kosovo... curious why you think this is successful. Yes we stuck our fingers in a small scale regional conflict and ultimately got our way.  But at what cost?  I spent some time studying the rise of Jihadi culture in the 1990s, which academically I find an interesting time period for them as the movement rode success against Russia in the 80s with a season of self-discovery (was I merely a regional phenomenon whose time has passed, or do I have a broader, global future?). Lots of informative literature showing we would have been smarter to encourage a generation of Jihadis to spend themselves in the Serb meat grinder. For that matter, we should have encouraged both Chechen wars & used Russia to attrit our foe.  We could have done to jihadis (for free) what you're desirous of doing to RUS in UKR.  No, Kosovo is not a win.

GW1?  That definitely looked like a win in 1994, but once we got bogged down with ONW & OSW then everything post 2002 i'm wondering what about that conflict leads you to conclude it was decisively finalized the way World War II was?  In hindsight it looks like a strategic failure to me, managed by weak-kneed leadership convinced of their own intelligence while lacking the fortitude to see enemies vanquished.  A consistent theme of our recent history, resulting in consistent failures worldwide.

i'll grant you Granada. Good job USA 🇺🇸