Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Lord Ratner]

11 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

look man bottom line is this:

if NATO commits troops into ukraine WW3 is on. is that what you want? i dont.

pretty incredible how careless the pro-intervention crowd is.

But it is Europe's fight, yes? So France and Poland have an interest and right to participate as they see fit? Or does NATO membership mean the US dictates everything?

 

I don't want it, but I'm much more sanguine about it. WWIII is inevitable. The details are flexible but the catastrophic nature is not. I would rather get it over with while we are morally weak but physically strong, rather than both morally and physically weak. Another decade or two of "peace" and I think we will look much more like the European countries do today. I don't want to give China any more advantage than they already have.

 

Interventionism doesn't have a bad track record, weak commitment does. Our intervening in world war II led to a pretty incredible period of prosperity and calm. South Korea, Japan, Germany, Italy, Israel, and even Taiwan are evidence. Righteous intervention can yield good results. Fucking around in the Middle East without a goal or real leadership is proof that mindless intervention can be catastrophic.

 

Let's not forget that the Western governments had no interest in intervening in Ukraine with military support. It was only when the populations expressed shocking and very loud support for the Ukrainian cause that the politicians jumped on board. Everybody assumed that after 20 years of pointless wars the citizenship would be permanently biased against any form of intervention, but the cartoonishly evil nature of the Russian invasion hit a part of the human psyche that we forgot we had.

 

Before world war II the youth of that generation were all hot and bothered over the Oxford pledge, yet when the actual war came, that generation became the "GI generation" and then the "greatest generation" and formed a sense of community that they rode to the grave.

 

[uhhello]

Perfectly sums up 90% of our NATO partners.  

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, Lord Ratner said:

But it is Europe's fight, yes? So France and Poland have an interest and right to participate as they see fit? Or does NATO membership mean the US dictates everything?

So, hypothetically, if a NATO country were to send troops into Ukraine and kill Russian soldiers and in response Russia then retaliates by striking that NATO country, would that invoke the NATO charter?

[Lawman]

So, hypothetically, if a NATO country were to send troops into Ukraine and kill Russian soldiers and in response Russia then retaliates by striking that NATO country, would that invoke the NATO charter?

You guys realize we’ve had combat observers, intel officers, and assistance trainers preceding our participation in every conflict since the First World War right?

Like we had people in England during the blitz, we had people observing Japanese action, the Russians had people take active part in combat that we know about in Korea.

This isn’t new. And the ones of you acting shocked are either doing it for effect or have clearly never worked in a FID or similar capacity. We had strict rules when I was doing it, we were not direct combatants. Nobody was under any confusion that me or anybody on our team getting killed by some hostile combatant was going to suddenly trigger the US into a war. Likewise it didn’t do anything when we slaughtered a bunch of Russians in Syria.


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[Lord Ratner]

3 hours ago, HeloDude said:

So, hypothetically, if a NATO country were to send troops into Ukraine and kill Russian soldiers and in response Russia then retaliates by striking that NATO country, would that invoke the NATO charter?

If they (let's say France) only kill Russian soldiers in Ukraine, then Russia has no basis to attack France. If France launches attacks into Russia, then it's game on for Russia to attack France, but NATO should not have to join in.

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, Lord Ratner said:

If they (let's say France) only kill Russian soldiers in Ukraine, then Russia has no basis to attack France. If France launches attacks into Russia, then it's game on for Russia to attack France, but NATO should not have to join in.

Ummm, we invaded Iraq because we said Saddam Hussein was an immediate threat due to their WMDs.  Wars tend to escalate at times, and for what we think are stupid reasons.  Just saying this as a response to your “no basis” as we had no basis to invade Iraq, but I still spent a year deployed there.

So seriously, if a NATO country deploys combat troops to Ukraine and kills Russian troops and Putin believes their best response is to attack said NATO country to keep that from continuing to happen, does this invoke the charter?

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

Ummm, we invaded Iraq because we said Saddam Hussein was an immediate threat due to their WMDs.  Wars tend to escalate at times, and for what we think are stupid reasons.  Just saying this as a response to your “no basis” as we had no basis to invade Iraq, but I still spent a year deployed there.

So seriously, if a NATO country deploys combat troops to Ukraine and kills Russian troops and Putin believes their best response is to attack said NATO country to keep that from continuing to happen, does this invoke the charter?

I don't think I implied anywhere that Iraq made sense. It didn't.

 

To your second point, yes.

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, Lord Ratner said:

I don't think I implied anywhere that Iraq made sense. It didn't.

 

To your second point, yes.

Which is why I used the example that something doesn’t need to make sense for it to happen/not happen…if Putin feels NATO country X is intentionally killing his troops when he didn’t want to fight NATO country X,  then don’t be surprised how he reacts.  

And I appreciate your candid answer…which is why I’ll follow up then with:  Let’s not poke the bear just because we’re confident in the end we can kill the bear if it gets pissed off and does something aggressive.  There’s a reason NATO won’t allow Ukraine to join at this current moment.

[Lawman]

Which is why I used the example that something doesn’t need to make sense for it to happen/not happen…if Putin feels NATO country X is intentionally killing his troops when he didn’t want to fight NATO country X,  then don’t be surprised how he reacts.  
And I appreciate your candid answer…which is why I’ll follow up then with:  Let’s not poke the bear just because we’re confident in the end we can kill the bear if it gets pissed off and does something aggressive.  There’s a reason NATO won’t allow Ukraine to join at this current moment.

How do you square that with the fact that not one but two NATO countries have in recent past (since he started aggressively annexing places) killed his troops. If you’re making the assumption that any provocative or challenging act could result in Putin acting irrationally, than everything from sanctions to Atlantic Resolve could be viewed as an overtly hostile justification to act, but that presumes Putin to be psychotically irrational or act in a way that all historic precedent says won’t occur.

You have to make a long series of specific assumptions/action within this hypothetical simulation that is neither happening nor in any immediate future going to happen (direct deployment of combat formations). It’s not like 2nd Stryker is in the motor pool at Rose Barracks getting ready to reinforce some beleaguered Ukrainian mech brigade. And the attempt to paint the mere presence of any uniformed personnel in any capacity to be the equivalent of that as an act of provocation accidental or otherwise is just a false comparison.


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[FourFans]

On 2/29/2024 at 10:38 AM, BashiChuni said:

look man bottom line is this:

if NATO commits troops into ukraine WW3 is on. is that what you want? i dont.

Apparently you haven't noticed, but WW3 is already on.  Now it's all about the roll we (USA) is going to play in it.  My guess is we reprise our WWII showing and stiff arm it until even the far left and far right isolationist in our country can't ignore it any more.  Then we hit heavy.  In WWII terms, it's 1938-39.  

How we should play in it is, and should be, hotly debated.  But ignoring that international hostilities (remember your DIME levers of power?) have already commenced is flat-out ignorant.  This thing is happening whether you want it to or not.  At least acknowledge that fact.  The sooner you move on to the solution phase, the less it will cognitively hurt.

I don't want it either.  No one should.  But thanks to the likes of Putin, Xi, Kim, Khamenei, Biden, and others it's happening.  Gotta take the world as it is, not as we want it to be.

Edited March 1, 2024 by FourFans

[BashiChuni]

ww3 is not already on. if you think that you're a fool.

the US killed the negotiated settlement at the start of the war thru our puppet boris johnson. the war hawks in this government WANT war with russia and they will do everything in their power to cause it.

we are bumbling right into a disaster.

[FourFans]

4 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

ww3 is not already on. if you think that you're a fool.

the US killed the negotiated settlement at the start of the war thru our puppet boris johnson. the war hawks in this government WANT war with russia and they will do everything in their power to cause it.

we are bumbling right into a disaster.

Have you ever considered that just because we're not involved (officially) yet, that WWIII can still have started?  It's on full bore in Eastern Europe.  It's on with Diplo, Info, and Econ with China N. Korea and Iran (almost Mil with Iran as well).

Two questions: When do you think WWII started?  What is your tripwire to believe WWIII has started?  Please bear in mind that the USA is not the only belligerent. 

Fully agree that we're headed right for disaster, especially if Biden is re-elected...but it's looking just as bad if Trump is elected too...

Edited March 1, 2024 by FourFans

[BashiChuni]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pope-says-ukraine-courage-white-161856540.html

 

UH OH THE POPE IS A RUSSIAN AGENT NOW!

[BashiChuni]

victoria nuland out as undersecretary. not looking good for the ukranian hawks in DC

[Clark Griswold]

Air to ground news

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ar-BB1jFMjO
 

Could you adapt a Stinger (or similar type missile) to provide a short range defense to these stand off weapons?  
Considering these are relatively inexpensive and deployed in decent numbers you would need a defense against them similar in cost to avoid an economic exchange imbalance

[Smokin]

Highly unlikely.  One, it would be very difficult to see the bombs from the ground until it was really too late.  Two, by the time you could see it and intercept it, the bomb would practically be at the target already.  Three, the miss distance you could cause with a MANPAD would likely be insignificant.  Unlikely to cause the bomb to cook off, best case you could cause a fin failure.  Even if it worked perfectly, I doubt you would really achieve much and you would have wasted a SAM that would be better used against the target they're intended to shoot.

[Lawman]

Air to ground news
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ar-BB1jFMjO
 
Could you adapt a Stinger (or similar type missile) to provide a short range defense to these stand off weapons?  
Considering these are relatively inexpensive and deployed in decent numbers you would need a defense against them similar in cost to avoid an economic exchange imbalance

Nowhere near enough thermal energy to grant any sort of reliable track. Time from standby to active and searching the the right direction would require a magic level of situational awareness. Also not enough range to permit a reliable distance of intercept.

I know people brief like a manpads is like a little ~5km wide 10k foot threat bubble just sitting on the battlefield, but they aren’t nearly as effective as the video games make them seem. I like to send pilots out to observe the ADA guys from their perspective. It’s mostly a tool of attrition to kill people dumb enough to hang around close, or a system to ambush predictable targets on established air corridors.


Now a system like Coyote? Probably better suited as this is exactly what it is designed to be, an expendable suicidal drone. But you still need donors and command and control architecture that may or may not be available at scale for them.


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[Clark Griswold]

4 hours ago, Lawman said:

Nowhere near enough thermal energy to grant any sort of reliable track. Time from standby to active and searching the the right direction would require a magic level of situational awareness. Also not enough range to permit a reliable distance of intercept.

I know people brief like a manpads is like a little ~5km wide 10k foot threat bubble just sitting on the battlefield, but they aren’t nearly as effective as the video games make them seem. I like to send pilots out to observe the ADA guys from their perspective. It’s mostly a tool of attrition to kill people dumb enough to hang around close, or a system to ambush predictable targets on established air corridors.

Now a system like Coyote? Probably better suited as this is exactly what it is designed to be, an expendable suicidal drone. But you still need donors and command and control architecture that may or may not be available at scale for them.

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Good stuff, not the right system then but the idea, a relatively cheap per shot system matched with a Hail Mary short range system (DE, guided AAA, suicide drone)

Edited March 12, 2024 by Clark Griswold

[Lawman]

Good stuff, not the right system then but the idea, a relatively cheap per shot system matched with a Hail Mary short range system (DE, guided AAA, suicide drone)

DE and Microwave are really the sustainment friendly solution to all things kinetic. The next step down is a cheap attack dog drone that goes out there to kill the incoming (ie Coyote). It only needs to have just enough performance to do that, which is why adapting SAMs to this is in a lot of ways a terrible exchange of overkill.

This is attritional exchange of bombardment methods. The problem is the disparity of cost when you compare a drone built by 3 guys with a high-school education using parts from Amazon. Meanwhile if you’re a western military you’re using IRIS-T or some other tech that needs 7 graduate degrees to design and 6 more guys to build it because it has to be able to kill everything in the way of target sets, and we can manufacture 19 a month or something.

The danger that comes with DE or Microwave though is those systems have some severe constraints as far as blue on blue effects. EW can be dangerous enough to your operations just through the bleed over effect, now you’re firing hard kill systems that may do things like cook the brains of those GMLRs in the AHA or fry the CPs radio stacks, maybe trash all the antenna cabling for a division STT…

Part of this problem isn’t simply munition, it’s going from kill chain to kill web with some form of AI to protect us from ourselves while we try to protect everybody.


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[uhhello]

'Found' $300M in contractor savings....

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/12/politics/us-announces-weapons-package-ukraine/index.html

[gearhog]

Looks like Putin just won a rigged election.

What a ridiculous charade. Everyone knows real democracies cancel their elections so their leadership can remain in power.

[BashiChuni]

https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/world/ar-BB1jZy7Q

the start of a new western media propaganda message. it's moved on from ammo and money now...to something more dangerous for the west...men

"Few men of fighting age are left in this village in southwest Ukraine, and those who remain fear they will be drafted at any moment."

"Ukraine desperately needs more troops, with its forces depleted by deaths, injuries and exhaustion" (MORE MONEY DOESN'T FIX THIS)

"Despite Russia’s own enormous casualties, the invaders still far outnumber Ukraine’s defenders, an advantage that is helping Moscow advance on the battlefield." (NO SHIT)

“Almost all our men have been scraped out,” said Serhii, 47, an infantry soldier from Makiv who was drafted in March 2022 and serves in Ukraine’s 115th brigade."

"Scenarios like these have left Polina, 16, anxious about how much longer she has with her father — one of the few draft-eligible men left in the village."

 

this gig is up. ukraine never had a chance in a war of attrition. the west will soon be at a dangerous crossroads...

it'll be interesting to see if this talking point gets more play in the press. the only move forward for the neocons is to push fresh men into the fire...and they won't be ukranian.

 

[HeloDude]

11 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/world/ar-BB1jZy7Q

the start of a new western media propaganda message. it's moved on from ammo and money now...to something more dangerous for the west...men

"Few men of fighting age are left in this village in southwest Ukraine, and those who remain fear they will be drafted at any moment."

"Ukraine desperately needs more troops, with its forces depleted by deaths, injuries and exhaustion" (MORE MONEY DOESN'T FIX THIS)

What are you talking about?  As of less than a month ago, Ukraine has only had 31K troops killed…don’t you believe Zelenskyy?

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-troops-killed-zelenskyy-675f53437aaf56a4d990736e85af57c4

[Biff_T]

15 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

the only move forward for the neocons is to push fresh men into the fire...and they won't be ukranian.

I heard there are Iraqi WMDs somewhere in Ukraine.  

[fire4effect]

4 hours ago, Biff_T said:

I heard there are Iraqi WMDs somewhere in Ukraine.  

Waaait a minute. You can't fool me with that song and dance again.😁You have to get up by the crack of noon to get ahead of me.