Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Lawman]

Thanks for the clarification…but just so I understand, this isn’t costing the American taxpayer any money, is that what you’re suggesting?
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/10/joint-statement-on-f-16s-for-ukraine-from-u-s-president-joseph-r-biden-dutch-prime-minister-dick-schoof-and-danish-prime-minister-mette-frederiksen/#:~:text=The Danish and Dutch governments,operational F-16s this summer.

I know you live in this weird world where the term, “total return on investment,” doesn’t exist, but yes in this case your original statement wasn’t in need of clarification it was a bold faced misstatement of truth.

You implied we simply gifted them weapons (in this case F16s) like allowing a person to simply walk in and out of Costco with a full cart and not pay. That is in no way representative of what is going on with these aid bills and it’s damn sure not an accurate depiction of a bunch of allied air and ground forces paying premium dollar totals to accelerate replacement of the systems they are donating to the Ukrainians. To say nothing of the investment in our own industrial capacity when most would agree this rollercoaster will get worse before it gets better.


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[Random Guy]

25 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Well, the grocery bills increased quite a bit since 2019, without much change in what we generally purchase.  If I had to guess it’s an increase of at least 25%, if not more.  Is my argument any less accurate if I have not directly compared receipts from 2019 and today of an item by item list?  

Yes.

 

It would be a good exercise at least.

 

On the income side: Since 2019, can you list any changes to your pay and the reason, including any one-time transfers?

 

On the cost side: did your basket of goods and services change? Do you know what proportion of your income is spent on which things?

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, Random Guy said:

The term "unsustainable debt" implies there is some limit of numbers one can write in a ledger, and there is no limit.

 

Whether the real goods exist that people want to purchase is another matter. It has nothing to do with the numbers in the ledger, per se. 

This is called pseudo-intellectualism. It's where you focus on arbitrary semantics instead of the point.

[Random Guy]

5 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

This is called pseudo-intellectualism. It's where you focus on arbitrary semantics instead of the point.

Which is why you are laser-focused on debt numbers and are not discussing real projects, quantities consumed, ownership or incentives? 

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, Random Guy said:

Yes.

 

It would be a good exercise at least.

 

On the income side: Since 2019, can you list any changes to your pay and the reason, including any one-time transfers?

 

On the cost side: did your basket of goods and services change? Do you know what proportion of your income is spent on which things?

Why would I do this for you?—do tedious work to prove something that is obviously a fact, even if you want to bear around the bush rather than agree.  If you don’t want to believe that inflation hasn’t drastically increased from 2019 to today, then that’s ok as you can have your head in the sand.  I previously told you that our weekly bills have increased with no significant changes to our weekly purchases, but yet asked me again anyway, which shows you don’t care to engage in a real conversation.

[Random Guy]

52 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Why would I do this for you?—do tedious work to prove something that is obviously a fact, even if you want to bear around the bush rather than agree.  If you don’t want to believe that inflation hasn’t drastically increased from 2019 to today, then that’s ok as you can have your head in the sand.  I previously told you that our weekly bills have increased with no significant changes to our weekly purchases, but yet asked me again anyway, which shows you don’t care to engage in a real conversation.

There's lots of studies on the outcomes of the inflation, but the actual impact varies person to person--because your basket is unique to you. We can answer the question 'how much worse off am I today, because of inflation' with quantitative certainty. 

Steel production facilities in the EU were very hard hit, for example, because energy is usually a foundry's largest input by cost. Similarly, your inputs may not reflect a typical basket. Maybe you consume large quantities of dildos imported from Asia, and logistics delays led to unusually large price increases for your particular basket. We can be specific about just how badly you got ****ed by businesses with more power than you.

 

🤣

Edited August 13 by Random Guy

[SurelySerious]

There's lots of studies on the outcomes of the inflation, but the actual impact varies person to person--because your basket is unique to you. We can answer the question 'how much worse off am I today, because of inflation' with quantitative certainty. 
Steel production facilities in the EU were very hard hit, for example, because energy is usually a foundry's largest input by cost. Similarly, your inputs may not reflect a typical basket. Maybe you consume large quantities of dildos imported from Asia, and logistics delays led to unusually large price increases for your particular basket. We can be specific about just how badly you got ****ed by businesses with more power than you.
 
🤣

Ah yes, the AI chatbot with no actual point is back.

Those of us humans with a budget already have the answer.

[brabus]

4 hours ago, HeloDude said:

I very much would like for all of this to be “up to them”, but unfortunately our federal government seems to love giving them hundreds of billions of dollars of money/resources, putting us further and further into an unsustainable debt.  Giving them F-16s will only most likely lead to spending more money/resources, especially training and mx costs.  But hey, our defense industry appreciates the business. 

Totally agree. We shouldn’t have done it in the first place.

[Random Guy]

2 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

Ah yes, the AI chatbot with no actual point is back.

Those of us humans with a budget already have the answer.

Well, the point is everyone is worse off because firms have pricing power, and military wages are calculated based on the assumption that only wage increases cause inflation. 

But wages did not cause the inflation, so using the Employment Cost Index to set wage increases leaves military personnel worse off (just like all other workers). 

So, TLDR, owners increased their slice of the pie and took a bit of yours this time. Which is usually a dangerous move.

[Random Guy]

Here's your US print:

https://x.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1823338314277011467

 

Edited August 13 by Random Guy

[brabus]

1 hour ago, Random Guy said:

So, TLDR, owners increased their slice of the pie and took a bit of yours this time

Are you arguing business owners have increased their margins at the expense of employee pay, and that’s the root cause for non-owners feeling the significant financial squeeze over the last few years?

[Random Guy]

7 minutes ago, brabus said:

Are you arguing business owners have increased their margins at the expense of employee pay, and that’s the root cause for non-owners feeling the significant financial squeeze over the last few years?

The flow of money over any period of time accrues to either workers (as wages) or owners (as profits), once it's created by bankers and before it's destroyed by repaying the loans. This is a macro finance truism. Concepts like margins are micro, a practice for accountants. Accounting doesn't hold the same at different levels of aggregation and different time horizons. That's why Mehrling euphemistically refers to it as 'alchemy'. 

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/a-new-look-at-the-declining-labor-share-of-income-in-the-united-states

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, brabus said:

Are you arguing business owners have increased their margins at the expense of employee pay, and that’s the root cause for non-owners feeling the significant financial squeeze over the last few years?

He’s a leftist who is (in a fancy way) suggesting that inflation was due to “corporate greed” vs a massive increase of the money supply without an associated economic growth (ie too many dollars chasing the same/fewer good and resources).  

[brabus]

@HeloDude Agreed, just like to make them actually articulate their viewpoint, but as expected, it was dodged via a re-direct/non-answer. 

[Majestik Møøse]

The USG spent $6.13T in FY23. $69B of that went to Ukraine, sort of, because a significant portion went to our defense industry.

If you think our budget problems are due to giving munitions to Ukraine, maybe you’ve been listening to too many clowns.

[Random Guy]

Growth is a measure of spending, if the gov spends, growth increases by definition.

 

Edit: @HeloDude "GDP, the most popular way to measure economic growth, is calculated by adding up all of the money spent by consumers, businesses, and the government in a given period. The formula is: GDP = consumer spending + business investment + government spending + net exports."

I get that most Helo guys aren't sharp, but there's really no excuse here dude. You get this, right?

Edited August 14 by Random Guy

[Random Guy]

16 hours ago, brabus said:

@HeloDude Agreed, just like to make them actually articulate their viewpoint, but as expected, it was dodged via a re-direct/non-answer. 

How was my response a non-answer?

Profit share of income rose, margins for some firms increased, but all firms cannot increase margins simultaneously, holding wages constant and maintaining a solvent banking sector.

You understand why an aggregate margin calculation wouldn't give you the answer you're looking for?

 

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, Majestik Møøse said:

The USG spent $6.13T in FY23. $69B of that went to Ukraine, sort of, because a significant portion went to our defense industry.

If you think our budget problems are due to giving munitions to Ukraine, maybe you’ve been listening to too many clowns.

If you don’t think that all of our unnecessary spending doesn’t add up, maybe you’d be been listening to too many clowns. 

[Random Guy]

1 minute ago, HeloDude said:

If you don’t think that all of our unnecessary spending doesn’t add up, maybe you’d be been listening to too many clowns. 

What proportion of that is in-kind transfers?

[Random Guy]

You can go through the data here: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

 

About 20B is reserve deposits to purchase USD goods or services. The rest is real. You get the difference between real and financial, yeah?

[Majestik Møøse]

The anti-Ukraine movement is Russian propaganda that MAGA has stupidly bitten off on because it’s a counter to a wildly successful venture by the current administration. For a pittance (<1% of our normal defense spending), we’ve enabled the Russian military to destroy itself by proving the overwhelming superiority of American weapons (very old ones, at that) in the hands of motivated locals. The effort has helped deter those who use FSU-derived weaponry while upending the idea that a modern Army can just steamroll a determined (and well-equipped) local populace at will. Taiwan would be wise to use the same posture to deter China.

Putin is a shithead sacrificing Russian youth to overcompensate for his insecurities. He is a tiny-dicked fuck that deserves a horrible death, which he will eventually get because the oligarchs would rather make money than see it dissolve in a war.

[HeloDude]

18 minutes ago, Majestik Møøse said:

The anti-Ukraine movement is Russian propaganda that MAGA has stupidly bitten off on because it’s a counter to a wildly successful venture by the current administration.

Dude, you’ve lost me if your position is that someone can’t be against giving hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine without believing/being part of some “Russian propaganda” nonsense.

[Day Man]

3 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

giving hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine

this is where your position falls apart

[HeloDude]

7 minutes ago, Day Man said:

this is where your position falls apart

Afraid not…and it’s irrelevant if some of that money appropriated for Ukraine goes to our military industrial complex.  It only continues to add to our current $2 Trillion deficit.  You can think this helps our economy, but I very much disagree. 

[Random Guy]

8 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Afraid not…and it’s irrelevant if some of that money appropriated for Ukraine goes to our military industrial complex.  It only continues to add to our current $2 Trillion deficit.  You can think this helps our economy, but I very much disagree. 

Why is the deficit (debt) bad?