Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[BashiChuni]

On 1/15/2025 at 3:51 PM, ClearedHot said:

Books have been written brother...to very poorly summarize it, Putin wants to restore a vision of what the USSR used to be.  Remember, he started as a KGB guy and most of those dudes are still pissed at how it all turned out.  While many of the old school are nostalgic for a Russia that looks like the old days, I think Putin is a bit more pragmatic and that matches with his actions.  He wants buffer states against NATO, not that he thinks they will invade but the close borders enable nationalism within those former proxies and nothing scares a good communist dictator more than nationalistic hopes for freedom. 

Putin wants to maintain control AND expand his influence and he knows a key component it the economy. 

 

Russia, despite its 23,000 miles of coastline, has no warm water, ice free ports, with direct access to an ocean.  Not only is Russia landlocked, but they lack land where they can grow crops. Russia can be divided into three main areas. The tundra which is 32% of Riussia's land mass, is found north of the Arctic Circle which is WAY too cold for trees and crops.  The subsoil is permanently frozen, sometimes to a depth of several hundred feet.  Then there is the Taiga which represents 1/4 of the worlds forest.  The soil is boggy and is again a huge area of Russia unusable for agriculture.  Finally, the Steppe which is basically a large plain and the only area Russia and grow crops but unlike much of the rest of the world, in that the regions that receive the most rainfall, are the regions with soil least suited to agriculture. Its growing season of 5 – 6 months is also significantly shorter than the 9-month window western Europe has.

The access to deep warm water ports and thus the world's oceans presents SEVERE challenges to Putin.  In the event of war, Russia wouldn’t be able to get out of the Baltic Sea. To get into the North Sea and on into the Atlantic Ocean from St Petersburg, a ship must pass through the Skagerrak, a narrow body of water controlled by NATO members Denmark and Norway.

 

  Then there’s the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, also home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.The port however is simply too shallow and too small to facilitate large scale cargo operations. The port is also poorly connected to the Russian heartland, reducing the profit margin of exports, and increasing the cost of imports that come through the port.  Even without conflict Putin's ability to get his goods, energy and resources to market.

 

When you take these factors into consideration and his belief that Ukraine IS Russia his moves make sense.  Taking the Crimea was ALL about access to open water...even with the limitations of getting through the The Turkish Straits, to include the Bosphorus and Dardanelles.  Invading Ukraine proper gives him the bread basket of Europe.  When you look at the calculus of what he has to gain combined with a feckless U.S. administration it makes sense.  His mistake was not realizing 30+ years of Ukraine freedom and nationalism gave Ukrainians a resolve, combined with U.S. weapons and his military leadership being complete stooges he is struggling. 

I am not normally in favor of giant sums of money going to other countries, but in my knuckle-dragger opinion it is money WELL spent to take Russia off the stage for a generation as a hegemonic near-peer.  But hey what do I know, I flew in circles for a living.

 

 

 

 

copy putin wants to maintain his influence in his sphere. kind of like we do.

none of that is a threat to our national security interests. you wrote nothing about putin wanting to keep invading west until he hits the atlantic ocean. crimea has been historically russian. no problem with them taking that.

thankfully trump will find a end to this dumbass involvement we've done. meanwhile the REAL threat to US interests is lurking in the pacific.

[SurelySerious]

copy putin wants to maintain his influence in his sphere. kind of like we do.
none of that is a threat to our national security interests. you wrote nothing about putin wanting to keep invading west until he hits the atlantic ocean. crimea has been historically russian. no problem with them taking that.
thankfully trump will find a end to this dumbass involvement we've done. meanwhile the REAL threat to US interests is lurking in the pacific.

Your reading comprehension sucks.

[Smokin]

Russia is and has been a threat to US interests since 1945 (maybe 1918?).  China is a bigger threat right now, but if you're fighting two guys at once and one falls to a knee, it isn't time to ignore them, it is time to stomp their face so they are out of the fight for a long time allowing you to focus on the other guy.

Is it expensive to fund Ukraine?  Yes.  Are we getting a way better return on that money compared to much of the other junk we burn our national treasure on?  Absolutely.  This is another Russia in Afghanistan scenario except the "good guys" aren't Islamic terrorists.  We'd be foolish to walk away from this opportunity to spend some money and help an enemy bleed themselves out.  Way better to defeat an enemy via a proxy war than face them directly in a war yourself.  And that doesn't even address the good of helping a free people defend themselves.

[BashiChuni]

19 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

Your reading comprehension sucks.

throw facts and show me where i'm wrong. or just throw spears like a child.

[SurelySerious]

throw facts and show me where i'm wrong. or just throw spears like a child.

The facts can only be laid out for you so many times.

[BashiChuni]

yeah ok. my argument is valid and will be proven correct with hindsight. carry on NPC