Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[disgruntledemployee]

5 hours ago, VigilanteNav said:

Solid analysis as always from the ISW that explains some deeper thoughts going on in Putin's nugget.  Coupled with the fact that the Russian economy has transitioned into a wartime one that needs the war (or buildup to a future war) to continue in order to sustain its growth, Putin has just as much incentive to continue the war as to stop it.  Even in a ceasefire deal, Russia will merely stop active fighting but continue to build up and regenerate the forces needed to invade again at a later date. Therefore, Zelensky wants security guarantees as part of the overall deal.  Honestly, I think Zelensky knows they've lost the land that the Russians hold right now and he knows they will lose more and more as time goes on. But, he also knows that without any real security guarantees (UK/EU boots on the ground at least), any ceasefire deal with Putin ain't worth the paper its written on (as has been proven over and over again).      

Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans | Institute for the Study of War

The summary:  A near-constant state of military mobilization is therefore one of the least politically risky configurations for Putin.  This dynamic will likely prompt Putin to maintain high levels of military readiness to simultaneously set conditions that would allow him to sustain a protracted or future war against Ukraine and/or prepare for a confrontation with NATO while minimizing the threat that Russian veterans may undermine his regime.  US policymakers must take these Russian incentives into account when assessing Russia’s negotiating position, and when evaluating what propositions the Kremlin is likely to reject.

 

Kinda hard to pay for all that military regeneration/growth when nobody buys your oil, well, except China.  This is the kind of move I would like to see the EU to do.  But they won't.

[disgruntledemployee]

3 hours ago, Blue said:

All of the west has been awash in pro-Ukraine propaganda for years now.  And it worked really well.  Tons of money and supplies were sent to Ukraine over the past 3+ years, as a direct result of that propaganda campaign.

Propaganda only goes so far though.  Eventually, reality catches up.  Most know this.  Trump being elected is a direct product of this.  Zelensky doesn't seem to get it, but maybe he's starting to learn his lesson.

Blah blah blah.  I call bullshit.  It's a simple principle called self defense.  If you think self defense is propaganda, leave all your doors unlocked, welcome in the home invaders, show them where your valuables are, and which bedroom your wife is in.

The only lesson Z learned is that Trump will not only not help, he'll go against UKR in favor of Russia.

[Blue]

On 2/28/2025 at 3:29 PM, disgruntledemployee said:

Maybe Zelinski thought through that chess and decided to pull that lever?  His diplomacy answer was thought out enough. 

If you can't even spell the guys name right, it's very difficult to take you seriously.

[disgruntledemployee]

1 minute ago, Blue said:

If you can't even spell the guys name right, it's very difficult to take you seriously.

That's all you got?  Spellin?

[BashiChuni]

 

[tac airlifter]

9 hours ago, Banzai said:

It’s not that hard. Many people on this forum have been exposed to literally near constant pro Russia propaganda for the past few years.

This is just the natural result of that reality.

I'd be happy to engage with you if you could answer one question: who blew up the Nordstream pipeline?

[BashiChuni]

this is my problem with the ukraine situation. if the US hadn't been messing around in Ukraine, destabilizing governments, running coups, establishing bio labs, putting the crack head son of the Vice President on a Ukranian gas company's BOD, having the Vice President blackmailing Ukraine with 1 billion of USAID money...

if all that wasn't happening and russia invaded...that's a clean kill...id be all for supporting them against russian "aggression".

but the same government fucks that lied to us during covid and trampled the constitution in unprecedented ways are the same government fucks who were playing around in ukraine.

i'm sorry but they burned ANY trust i have in them...they DO NOT get the benefit of the doubt. and i assume they have bad intentions. so when guys like chris murphy and other democrats cry wolf about protecting ukraine from the russians it rings on deaf ears.

Edited Tuesday at 07:35 PM by BashiChuni

[BashiChuni]

There are many questions to be answered on our involvement in Ukraine. It’s not black and white. 

at first glance this seems good...securing biological agents...all for it.

but what's the "modern, safe (key word that triggers my interest) and secure diagnostic health labrotory and a national NETWORK of epidemiological monitoring stations" part about?

like @tac airlifter says sometimes the most lethal and dangerous programs are concealed with the most generic sounding names and labels.

what's that all about? knowing how devious some of the federal power players like Fauci turned out to be during covid, i have a hard time believing our intentions setting up labs in ukraine were all rainbows and sunshine.

Edited Tuesday at 07:43 PM by BashiChuni

[BashiChuni]

 

[dream big]

1 hour ago, disgruntledemployee said:

That's all you got?  Spellin?

Holding Ukraine accountable for the billions of tax payer dollars we have given them isn’t “Pro Russia,” good lord when did you leftists become so anti peace? I thought that was your mojo back in early 2000s. Also this Trump pro Russia nonsense was tried in 2016, failed then and will fail again. You all will never learn, hence why Trump destroyed Kamala who would have had this country on its knees pissing away money so Zelensky doesn’t have to actually have an election and potentially lose his grasp on power. Let’s see your tone when Zelensky comes crawling back because there are literally no other executable options than to rely on the United States. No longer do we have a kick me sign on our back under the blithering half wit. 

[StoleIt]

The "Zelensky is a dictator/wont hold an election" talking point is taken in such bad faith. It's in their constitution. Also, how does one hold a free and fair election while a significant amount of their population/territory is occupied? How do you account for citizens of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson? I'd imagine they are all voting pro-Putin right now.

Not saying there isn't a lot of valid criticism you can throw at this conflict, our involvement, and Zelensky...but "he is a dictator because he suspended elections" is one of the more idiotic talking points.

[BashiChuni]

15 minutes ago, StoleIt said:

 

Not saying there isn't a lot of valid criticism you can throw at this conflict, our involvement, and Zelensky...

i don't disagree about the election point.

this is a good step in the right direction...at the start of the conflict ANY dissent and you were labeled "pro putin". at least now some are acknowledging that this conflict is complicated and problematic.

much like during COVID...any push back on mandatory vaccines, masking, natural immunity effectiveness, or social distancing and you "wanted grandma to die" and instantly labeled "anti vaccine" and "conspiracy theorist".

 

the messaging propaganda used is the tell that you're on the wrong side

[MCO]

36 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

i don't disagree about the election point.

this is a good step in the right direction...at the start of the conflict ANY dissent and you were labeled "pro putin". at least now some are acknowledging that this conflict is complicated and problematic.

much like during COVID...any push back on mandatory vaccines, masking, natural immunity effectiveness, or social distancing and you "wanted grandma to die" and instantly labeled "anti vaccine" and "conspiracy theorist".

 

the messaging propaganda used is the tell that you're on the wrong side

The real progress made is people have successfully made the talking point it’s ok to invade another country and take their land if you don’t like their government, even if they don’t pose a direct threat to you.

[gearhog]

3 hours ago, StoleIt said:

The "Zelensky is a dictator/wont hold an election" talking point is taken in such bad faith. It's in their constitution. Also, how does one hold a free and fair election while a significant amount of their population/territory is occupied? How do you account for citizens of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson? I'd imagine they are all voting pro-Putin right now.

Not saying there isn't a lot of valid criticism you can throw at this conflict, our involvement, and Zelensky...but "he is a dictator because he suspended elections" is one of the more idiotic talking points.

Wrong. I've covered this multiple times in this thread. Ypu're regurgitating something you saw on the internet without even bothering to verify it.

Their "constitution" was abridged in 2015 by a statutory law that allows them to suspend elections in a time of war. After the coup. The original constitution was not written with a provision for suspending elections under "Martial Law".

Here is the link:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Ukraine

Just because a document outlining a system of government is called a "constitution" does not mean it is in the same class or category as the US Constitution. As I said before, we held elections during the Civil War and WWII, two of the most consequential conflicts in our nation's history, and we were better off for it.

A democracy isn't just about people voting for frivolous policies about what potholes get filled or where people can smoke weed. A true democracy exists when a nation's citizens can decide the direction of their country in it's most important and pivotal moments. The Ukrainian people are denied the opportunity to decide if their citizens continue to die. Don't speak of idiocy while also not knowing the history of martial law in Ukraine.

2 hours ago, MCO said:

The real progress made is people have successfully made the talking point it’s ok to invade another country and take their land if you don’t like their government, even if they don’t pose a direct threat to you.

No one here ever said it's ok. You can understand something without condoning it. Another BS Straw Man fallacy argument. The world is full of crimes and injustices and we simply do not have the money and resources to correct them all.  And they're not all a direct threat to us. Shit happens. And don't play it up as if you're hyper-sensitive to the plight of Ukrainians. Like most of those wringing their hands over how a sacrosanct piece of foreign dirt got trampled upon, you'll argue for 200+ online discussion forum pages about what a tragedy this is while not doing anything of substance to help. You even have the means and ability yourself to help Americans suffering within a few miles of you. Think about how much of that you're doing.  It's all virtue-signalling and no substance. 

Check out the concept of "Suicidal Empathy" in Gad Saad's upcoming book. You can be manipulated to become so deeply empathetic to a cause while having absolutely zero first-hand exposure to it, that you'll knowingly or unknowingly harm yourself for its benefit.

Edited yesterday at 12:01 AM by gearhog

[BashiChuni]

 

[gearhog]

Zelensky bends the knee. Makes public concessions after his meeting with Trump and says he’s “ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership.”

Please whine about it and cope below 👇 

Edited yesterday at 04:09 AM by gearhog

[VigilanteNav]

14 hours ago, disgruntledemployee said:

Kinda hard to pay for all that military regeneration/growth when nobody buys your oil, well, except China.  This is the kind of move I would like to see the EU to do.  But they won't.

Another interesting analysis of what's going on in Putin's nugget that is putting pressure on him. Why Putin is finally negotiating – POLITICO

To your point, the EU has a lot of room for improvement in order to ramp up the financial pressure on him. Such as this...

France warms to idea of seizing Russian assets in Europe – POLITICO

Although I don't agree with our freeze on military aid, that could just be the final nudge that the UK/EU needed to fully go all in on their support.  

 

[VigilanteNav]

Regarding the history of Ukraine that many on here are attempting to skew.  Putin could have very likely executed the "coup" in Ukraine in 2014...

The Stubborn Legend of a Western 'Coup' in Ukraine

If you haven't watched this yet, highly recommend as well..

Looking further back, the Ukrainians had successful revolutions before so it wasn't like 2014 was a new thing. See the Orange Revolution of 2004 (in which Putin had the pro-Western candidate poisoned btw). 

And if all that doesn't cause you to think about why the Ukrainians on the whole would want to align with the West and not Russia, think about how the average US citizen votes..."it's the economy stupid".  The EU's GDP dwarfs Russia's, always has, always will.  Italy's alone is bigger than Russia's to put it into perspective.  Hence: quoting from the FP article: The Maidan mass protests—which lasted from November 2013 to February 2014 in Kyiv and many other cities across Ukraine—erupted when Yanukovych pivoted from a wide-ranging association agreement with the European Union to a similar one with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union.

If you still want to go with the CIA funded the coup through USAID angle. think about why an average human being would want to go sit out in the dead of winter for months and months on end and eventually at the risk of getting beaten to a pulp, shot, etc? They'd do that because some 'pro-western" office was stood up in their cities and towns and they just wandered into it and said what do you offer?  Or, might it be a bit more likely they were fed up with a Russian influenced economy that was leaving them with no options for a better future?     

[LiquidSky]

The United States has banned Britain from sharing intelligence from Washington with Ukraine as part of its withdrawal of support for Volodymyr Zelensky.

Continuing to hamstring Ukraine for no discernable reason. When did we decide Russia was our ally? Won't be shocked to read we pull sanctions or feed them Intel next.

Hopefully the dailymail is a shitty enough non msm source for the trolls. 

Edited yesterday at 12:02 PM by LiquidSky

[gearhog]

2 hours ago, LiquidSky said:

The United States has banned Britain from sharing intelligence from Washington with Ukraine as part of its withdrawal of support for Volodymyr Zelensky.

Continuing to hamstring Ukraine for no discernable reason. When did we decide Russia was our ally? Won't be shocked to read we pull sanctions or feed them Intel next.

Hopefully the dailymail is a shitty enough non msm source for the trolls. 

It's not discernable to you because the senseless killing of hundreds of thousands (millions?) is inconceivable to you as a valid reason to cease hostilities.

Name once instance, from anywhere, of anyone here who has said Russia was an ally. You can't. All of your reasonable justifications to continue war have been defeated, so it seems the lot of you must resort to inventing false positions or statements to argue against.

Logic, not wishful thinking, will always dictate the ultimate outcome of an event. What are you going to do, make a post every time reality doesn't jive with your position? Fortunately, most people are not like you. Most people believe protracting a foreign conflict where millions continue to die is not in our best interest nor Ukraine's best interest.  Thank goodness for real democracy. Events are clearly going to diverge at an increasing rate from your poorly considered desires. I suggest you surrender to the fact our support for this conflict is ending, or you're just going to be yet another in a long line who whine a lot, but never actually do anything to contribute to your cause.

You win some, you lose some. Pickyourbattles.

Edited yesterday at 02:12 PM by gearhog

[BashiChuni]

45 minutes ago, gearhog said:

Pickyourbattles.

[RASH]

Ix nay on the attles bay


Sent from my iPad using Baseops Network mobile app

[LiquidSky]

1 hour ago, gearhog said:

It's not discernable to you because the senseless killing of hundreds of thousands (millions?) is inconceivable to you as a valid reason to cease hostilities.

Name once instance, from anywhere, of anyone here who has said Russia was an ally. You can't. All of your reasonable justifications to continue war have been defeated, so it seems the lot of you must resort to inventing false positions or statements to argue against.

Logic, not wishful thinking, will always dictate the ultimate outcome of an event. What are you going to do, make a post every time reality doesn't jive with your position? Fortunately, most people are not like you. Most people believe protracting a foreign conflict where millions continue to die is not in our best interest nor Ukraine's best interest.  Thank goodness for real democracy. Events are clearly going to diverge at an increasing rate from your poorly considered desires. I suggest you surrender to the fact our support for this conflict is ending, or you're just going to be yet another in a long line who whine a lot, but never actually do anything to contribute to your cause.

You win some, you lose some. Pickyourbattles.

Literally answered this the other day and y'all chose to ignore it. 

On 3/3/2025 at 6:18 PM, LiquidSky said:

Because some recalled the history of the past 100 years and have learned from it.

1940s appeasement directly led to the rise of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. Post-war iron curtian/Soviet appeasement led to the rise of the USSR. 

Russian Federation appeasement has led to:

1994: Chechen war

1999: Chechen war round 2

2008: Georgian Invasion

2014: Crimean & Donbas Occupation

2022: Full-scale invasion of Ukraine

 

You think Putin is going to be content with what he has attained? You think Russians will forget the humiliation of a 3 day special operation against a weaker nation turning into a 3 year stalemate? 

They'll sue for peace, re-arm over the next few years, and then roll over Ukraine when everyone in the west has stopped caring again. They didn't abide by the Budapest memorandum or any other agreement they've made since conspiring with Germany to split up Poland. Why do you think they will now? 

Secondly for this to end Russia could just leave. They're the aggressor and no one is forcing them to keep fighting until Ukraine sues for peace. They could turn around and leave. Finally, even if you want peace it's in our interest for Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength. Which the current admin isn't doing.  

Edited yesterday at 03:09 PM by LiquidSky

[BashiChuni]

5 hours ago, VigilanteNav said:

Regarding the history of Ukraine that many on here are attempting to skew.  Putin could have very likely executed the "coup" in Ukraine in 2014...

 

bro you can't even spin it to be a "pro russian coup". the government removed in 2014 was pro russian. why would putin stage a coup on his own guy? lol. the evidence is overwhelming of western involvement.

from 2014: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/30/russia-ukraine-war-kiev-conflict

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/15/john-mccain-ukraine-protests-support-just-cause

 

"We are here to support your just cause, the sovereign right of Ukraine to determine its own destiny freely and independently. And the destiny you seek lies in Europe," said McCain, a leading Republican voice on US foreign policy. 

McCain is in Ukraine with a Connecticut Democrat, Senator Chris Murphy.

Speaking to CNN on Sunday, McCain said: “What we're trying to do is try to bring about a peaceful transition here, that would stop the violence and give the Ukrainian people what they unfortunately have not had, with different revolutions that have taken place – a real society. This is a grassroots revolution here – it's been peaceful except when the government tried to crack down on them, and the government hasn't tried that since.

 

Asked about Russian president Vladimir Putin's role in the crisis, McCain said: “There's no doubt that Ukraine is of vital importance to Putin. I think it was [Henry] Kissinger, I'm not sure, said that Russia, without Ukraine it's an eastern power, with Ukraine it's a western power. This is the beginning of Russia, right here in Kiev."

 

"The reality is that, after two decades of eastward Nato expansion, this crisis was triggered by the west's attempt to pull Ukraine decisively into its orbit and defence structure, via an explicitly anti-Moscow EU association agreement. Its rejection led to the Maidan protests and the installation of an anti-Russian administration – rejected by half the country – that went on to sign the EU and International Monetary Fund agreements regardless.

No Russian government could have acquiesced in such a threat from territory that was at the heart of both Russia and the Soviet Union. Putin's absorption of Crimea and support for the rebellion in eastern Ukraine is clearly defensive, and the red line now drawn: the east of Ukraine, at least, is not going to be swallowed up by Nato or the EU."

 

 

https://truthout.org/articles/the-ukraine-mess-that-nuland-made/

 

Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs “Toria” Nuland was the “mastermind” behind the Feb. 22, 2014 “regime change” in Ukraine, plotting the overthrow of the democratically elected government of President Viktor Yanukovych while convincing the ever-gullible US mainstream media that the coup wasn’t really a coup but a victory for “democracy.”

 

Much of what has happened, of course, was predictable and indeed was predicted, but neocon Nuland couldn’t resist the temptation to pull off a “regime change” that she could call her own.

Her husband (and arch-neocon) Robert Kagan had co-founded the Project for the New American Century in 1998 around a demand for “regime change” in Iraq, a project that was accomplished in 2003 with President George W. Bush’s invasion.

[gearhog]

2 hours ago, LiquidSky said:

Literally answered this the other day and y'all chose to ignore it. 

Secondly for this to end Russia could just leave. They're the aggressor and no one is forcing them to keep fighting until Ukraine sues for peace. They could turn around and leave. Finally, even if you want peace it's in our interest for Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength. Which the current admin isn't doing.  

Never saw it.

Russia should just quit? How does that even enter into your mind as a realistic solution let alone as being in the realm of remote possibility? What a mind-numbingly ignorant position. That's something you'd expect to hear from your average TikTok account, not an educated military officer.

How does Ukraine attain a position of strength? Their population is being drained of warfighters. The world can supply them unlimited weapons and money, but no one is willing to replace Ukraine's soldiers with their own... including you.