Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[gearhog]

I have been arguing this shit was going to be a miserable failure. Wasted money. Wasted lives. Now we’re walking away. 
 

Hopefully some of you will finally come to the realization we don’t know WTF we are doing.

https://x.com/warclandestine/status/1712223627259609419?s=46

[kaputt]

53 minutes ago, gearhog said:

I have been arguing this shit was going to be a miserable failure. Wasted money. Wasted lives. Now we’re walking away. 
 

Hopefully some of you will finally come to the realization we don’t know WTF we are doing.

https://x.com/warclandestine/status/1712223627259609419?s=46

That's actually not what he said. If you listen to the whole briefing, the question the reporter asked was in regard to how long existing appropriations would last for both Israel and Ukraine before additional Congressional action needed to be taken to continue that funding. Action that can't be taken due to the lack of a Speaker as of now. 

The end of the rope was the currently approved funding, not the end of the rope of aid to Ukraine.

Of course a carefully edited twitter snip doesn't capture that... 

White House Daily Briefing | October 11, 2023 | C-SPAN.org

39:00 if you want to hear the full question and answer.

Edited October 12, 2023 by kaputt
added link

[gearhog]

2 hours ago, kaputt said:

That's actually not what he said. If you listen to the whole briefing, the question the reporter asked was in regard to how long existing appropriations would last for both Israel and Ukraine before additional Congressional action needed to be taken to continue that funding. Action that can't be taken due to the lack of a Speaker as of now. 

The end of the rope was the currently approved funding, not the end of the rope of aid to Ukraine.

Of course a carefully edited twitter snip doesn't capture that... 

White House Daily Briefing | October 11, 2023 | C-SPAN.org

39:00 if you want to hear the full question and answer.

After the Cold War, our defense strategy maintained that the US should be able to fight and win two simultaneous wars in two different theaters of conflict. During Obama, it was changed that we would fight and win one war, and inflict unacceptable losses in another. Then, under Trump, it was fight and win one, and deter aggression in another theater.

Our assets are more capable, but there are less of them, and an asset may only be in one place at one time. I estimate half the world's population is rooting for our failure.

We're on the brink of an economic "difficulty" to put it mildly.

Quote

In the past 20 days, the US debt has risen by a tick over $500 billion. Total debt now stands at $33.521 trillion. This means $28 billion a day added over the 19 days or $1.2 billion an hour. That equates to $1 trillion in 45 days.

So, we are not equipped to fight and win more than one war and we're dangerously close to financial ruin. We don't have the recruits, and we're sending enormous amounts of weapons, equipment, and ammo to proxy wars to the point we are affecting our own readiness.

We have strategic threats in THREE theaters now. The Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the Pacific. What is #1? What is #2? What is #3? If we're feeling top of our game (and we're not), we can choose which one to win, one to fight, and one to disengage. We have multiple Congressional leaders now calling for Tehran to be attacked FFS. I contend that Russia was never a real threat. Why? Because they are small potatoes. China is #1. The world's energy supply (ME) is #2.

Kirby is telling you we simply cannot do it all. He's preparing you for the idea difficult choices must be made. The enemy also knows we cannot do it all. Once we're balls deep in Israel, you can bet your ass there will be another fire to be put out. We're being baited into managing all the world's conflicts so that ultimately, we'll be unable to manage any of them.

Edited October 12, 2023 by gearhog

[ecugringo]

You currently have: Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza, Armenia, and Serbia massing on the Kosovo border.

one side is western influenced the other is in the Russia sphere along with Iran…fun times!

[HeloDude]

On 10/12/2023 at 4:37 PM, gearhog said:

What is #1? What is #2? What is #3? If we're feeling top of our game (and we're not), we can choose which one to win, one to fight, and one to disengage. We have multiple Congressional leaders now calling for Tehran to be attacked FFS. I contend that Russia was never a real threat. Why? Because they are small potatoes. China is #1. The world's energy supply (ME) is #2.

Dude, you totally shot and missed wrt the actual biggest threat we face…

Climate Change

So get rid of that gas stove, that big gas guzzling SUV or truck, and stop eating meat.  You’ll eat bugs and you’ll like it.

https://nypost.com/2023/01/31/biden-says-global-warming-is-bigger-threat-to-humanity-than-nuclear-war/amp/

[BashiChuni]

oh look the virtue signal mob has abandoned ukraine and now is on to palestine...how predictable.

 

[gearhog]

[BashiChuni]

with all the clamoring for a cease fire in gaza why no appetite for cease fire in ukraine?

[tac airlifter]

16 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

with all the clamoring for a cease fire in gaza why no appetite for cease fire in ukraine?

Same reason we must defend democracy in Ukraine but not Israel.

[ClearedHot]

Ukraine uses secretly shipped U.S. missiles to launch surprise strike

Ukraine says it destroyed 9 Russian helicopters in airfield attacks

 

[DirkDiggler]

Always a good morning waking up to burning Russian equipment.

[StoleIt]

On 10/14/2023 at 8:47 PM, BashiChuni said:

with all the clamoring for a cease fire in gaza why no appetite for cease fire in ukraine?

If the Russians pull out (STS) and return all the occupied land to the pre-2021, aw hell lets make it 2014, time frame then I'm sure the conflict in Ukraine would be over tomorrow.

[pawnman]

10 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Ukraine uses secretly shipped U.S. missiles to launch surprise strike

Ukraine says it destroyed 9 Russian helicopters in airfield attacks

 

But I'm sure someone will be along to tell us this is what Russia looks like when they're winning and how we're wasting our resources in Ukraine.

I'm with Dirk. Its always a good day to watch Russian equipment roll up in a fireball.

[gearhog]

7 hours ago, pawnman said:

But I'm sure someone will be along to tell us this is what Russia looks like when they're winning and how we're wasting our resources in Ukraine.

I'm with Dirk. Its always a good day to watch Russian equipment roll up in a fireball.

If you want to take a shot at me, grow a spine and do so directly. Obviously, you're a big fan of indirect engagement, but I think it's a weak way to handle your business. I could draw it out for you in crayon and stick figures, and you'd still be incapable of understanding. I do not support Russia, and you're a fool for believing you, me, and the people we care about will experience a better life as a result of this. You're watching the conflict unfold from a half a planet away, and through a soda straw, while nutting in your underoos because you saw a bad guy get exploded. Ok, enough insults. 😄

Here's what I see: a great unraveling of global political, social, and economic orders. Consequences of unlimited growth in world of finite resources. Thucydidies trap. A bunch of 80 year olds spending our nation into oblivion to settle old conflicts before they kick it.

Some napkin math I just did: The average price, per acre, of land in Ukraine is $580. Russia has assumed control of approx 30 million acres of mostly farmland. That's $17 Billion dollars. For the $113 Billion we've spent, and gotten nothing, we could have bought the land, built homes and infrastructure, and populated the area with Mexicans, Palestinians, Ukrainians, Africans, Americans, Liberals, Transvestites, whomever... and still had money left over. NATO could have thrown Russia into chaos without a single weapon. This whole thing is hilariously insane.

So yeah, big f'n waste.

 

 

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, gearhog said:

If you want to take a shot at me, grow a spine and do so directly. Obviously, you're a big fan of indirect engagement, but I think it's a weak way to handle your business. I could draw it out for you in crayon and stick figures, and you'd still be incapable of understanding. I do not support Russia, and you're a fool for believing you, me, and the people we care about will experience a better life as a result of this. You're watching the conflict unfold from a half a planet away, and through a soda straw, while nutting in your underoos because you saw a bad guy get exploded. Ok, enough insults. 😄

Here's what I see: a great unraveling of global political, social, and economic orders. Consequences of unlimited growth in world of finite resources. Thucydidies trap. A bunch of 80 year olds spending our nation into oblivion to settle old conflicts before they kick it.

Some napkin math I just did: The average price, per acre, of land in Ukraine is $580. Russia has assumed control of approx 30 million acres of mostly farmland. That's $17 Billion dollars. For the $113 Billion we've spent, and gotten nothing, we could have bought the land, built homes and infrastructure, and populated the area with Mexicans, Palestinians, Ukrainians, Africans, Americans, Liberals, Transvestites, whomever... and still had money left over. NATO could have thrown Russia into chaos without a single weapon. This whole thing is hilariously insane.

So yeah, big f'n waste.

I respect your views but with regard to Russia, it is not about the price per acre of Ukrainian land.  Instead, Russia has been humbled, their Army is in tatters and they are no longer a threat to the rest of Europe and beyond.  You've invested in the geopolitics and some of the economics, look at the demographics, this is a turning point for them and it will take a generation to recovery...if they ever do. 

Demographic wise the U.S. population in the late 60's was around 200 million, we lost 55,000 Americans over 20 years in Vietnam and it changed our country.  Russia today is a country of 143 million and they have lost approximately 120,000 in a year and a half.  Russian birthrates are again on the decline after a sight recovery to years ago, they are in real trouble.

Bottomline, for about 15% of the DoD budget we have taken a superpower out of play without the loss of any U.S. troops...that my friend is not a waste, it is a bargain.

[Blue]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

Instead, Russia has been humbled, their Army is in tatters and they are no longer a threat to the rest of Europe and beyond.

How, exactly, was Russia a thread to Europe and beyond before all of this?

[ClearedHot]

8 minutes ago, Blue said:

How, exactly, was Russia a thread to Europe and beyond before all of this?

Seriously?

Over the past past 10-15 years via proxy and direct action Putin has been trying to rebuild the FSU.  Have you heard of the little incursion into Crimea in 2014, that successful effort certainly emboldened him to do more.  Myself and others believe that if Ukraine folded quickly as many thought, Putin would continue efforts west.  A lot of people have been sounding the alarm the past few years, a few good outlines of what they have been doing and the implications can be found here and here .

[Stoker]

41 minutes ago, Blue said:

How, exactly, was Russia a thread to Europe and beyond before all of this?

Before they invaded Europe, they weren't a threat to Europe. And before he got shot in the head, President Lincoln really enjoyed the play.

[Lord Ratner]

The Ukrainians are not being forced to fight. They are doing so (at a national level) of their own free will. Obviously they would not be able to do it without our support, but that doesn't change the fact that the United States is not forcing Ukraine into fighting for longer.

 

So when people start talking about the morality of throwing Ukrainian bodies into the meat grinder, I find it curious that they do not consider the Ukrainian point of view on whether it is a worthwhile loss of life to resist Russia. Personally, I trust the Ukrainian perspective on whether you Ukrainian lives are worth resisting Russia. Certainly more so than I trust the opinion of Americans who, while many of us have served our country and suffered for it, none of us have been even remotely close to living under an authoritarian boot. The Ukrainian memory goes back a while.

 

I said from the start that I believe the concept of sovereignty is vital in both the moral sense and in preserving some sort of global stability. So I'm inclined to support any country that is in a war of sovereignty, which Ukraine very much is. Arguing about Russian borders from before the Cold war seems silly and irrelevant to me, as the USSR waged a decades long war to build their empire and lost. Losing the western territories was part of that loss. There is no allowance to the concept of sovereignty for historical borders.

 

I also do not believe as many populist republicans seem to believe that there is a world where we can isolate and avoid conflict. I see the coming storm as inevitable, and given the opportunity to annihilate the fighting forces of one of the most likely major adversaries in the coming conflict, I say we take it. Again, I would not support expending American lives to do so, and I certainly wouldn't support forcing the Ukrainians to expend their lives, but so long as they are willing, I believe the cost is worth it. When you compare that cost to the other things we are deficit spending on, it might be the greatest deal in the history of Fiat currency. What better way to spend made up money?

 

Would I support the same action against China? You betcha. If China wants to try to invade another country, and that country can bleed their military out using our intelligence and weaponry, and the people of that country are willing to fight, it's a no-brainer. Taking two geopolitical adversaries off the board before our economic death spiral starts to seriously impact our ability to project global power would be an incredible advantage going into the fourth turning. 

 

I think part of the key difference is that the populist conservative movement (best exemplified by Tucker Carlson) seems to believe that there is an option for some sort of perpetual status quo going forward, if only we don't rock the boat too hard. I disagree emphatically with that belief. History moves in waves, and just like real waves, trying to stop them is pointless, and potentially fatal. Move with them, even try to ride them, and you might end up on top. Might.

[DirkDiggler]

10 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

The Ukrainians are not being forced to fight. They are doing so (at a national level) of their own free will. Obviously they would not be able to do it without our support, but that doesn't change the fact that the United States is not forcing Ukraine into fighting for longer.

 

So when people start talking about the morality of throwing Ukrainian bodies into the meat grinder, I find it curious that they do not consider the Ukrainian point of view on whether it is a worthwhile loss of life to resist Russia. Personally, I trust the Ukrainian perspective on whether you Ukrainian lives are worth resisting Russia. Certainly more so than I trust the opinion of Americans who, while many of us have served our country and suffered for it, none of us have been even remotely close to living under an authoritarian boot. The Ukrainian memory goes back a while.

 

I said from the start that I believe the concept of sovereignty is vital in both the moral sense and in preserving some sort of global stability. So I'm inclined to support any country that is in a war of sovereignty, which Ukraine very much is. Arguing about Russian borders from before the Cold war seems silly and irrelevant to me, as the USSR waged a decades long war to build their empire and lost. Losing the western territories was part of that loss. There is no allowance to the concept of sovereignty for historical borders.

 

I also do not believe as many populist republicans seem to believe that there is a world where we can isolate and avoid conflict. I see the coming storm as inevitable, and given the opportunity to annihilate the fighting forces of one of the most likely major adversaries in the coming conflict, I say we take it. Again, I would not support expending American lives to do so, and I certainly wouldn't support forcing the Ukrainians to expend their lives, but so long as they are willing, I believe the cost is worth it. When you compare that cost to the other things we are deficit spending on, it might be the greatest deal in the history of Fiat currency. What better way to spend made up money?

 

Would I support the same action against China? You betcha. If China wants to try to invade another country, and that country can bleed their military out using our intelligence and weaponry, and the people of that country are willing to fight, it's a no-brainer. Taking two geopolitical adversaries off the board before our economic death spiral starts to seriously impact our ability to project global power would be an incredible advantage going into the fourth turning. 

 

I think part of the key difference is that the populist conservative movement (best exemplified by Tucker Carlson) seems to believe that there is an option for some sort of perpetual status quo going forward, if only we don't rock the boat too hard. I disagree emphatically with that belief. History moves in waves, and just like real waves, trying to stop them is pointless, and potentially fatal. Move with them, even try to ride them, and you might end up on top. Might.

Very well said.

[ecugringo]

Arent Ukrainian Males in forced conscription?  So yeah they kinda are forced to fight.

The war goes back to 2014 with the Maiden uprising.  Losing the pro Russia govt is what pushed Putin. The question is how involved was the US in those uprisings?  State Dept was there.  Not saying this is just cause for Putin but an expansion eastward of Western influence put him in a defensive position.

A question to ask is if/when western support dries up in Ukraine and Russia eventually wins...will that loss of life be worth it for Ukraine?  Did we just help delay the inevitable and cause more death and destruction for a goal of making Putin's military weaker.

I dont think Putin is stupid.  I think a lot of things going on now are all related.

[pawnman]

20 minutes ago, ecugringo said:

Arent Ukrainian Males in forced conscription?  So yeah they kinda are forced to fight.

The war goes back to 2014 with the Maiden uprising.  Losing the pro Russia govt is what pushed Putin. The question is how involved was the US in those uprisings?  State Dept was there.  Not saying this is just cause for Putin but an expansion eastward of Western influence put him in a defensive position.

A question to ask is if/when western support dries up in Ukraine and Russia eventually wins...will that loss of life be worth it for Ukraine?  Did we just help delay the inevitable and cause more death and destruction for a goal of making Putin's military weaker.

I dont think Putin is stupid.  I think a lot of things going on now are all related.

Individual Ukrainians may, in fact, be drafted into service. That's not the point being made. The point being made is that the government of Ukraine could stop fighting at any point. The US and NATO aren't forcing Ukraine to fight, we're enabling a decision  they made for themselves.

[ecugringo]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

Individual Ukrainians may, in fact, be drafted into service. That's not the point being made. The point being made is that the government of Ukraine could stop fighting at any point. The US and NATO aren't forcing Ukraine to fight, we're enabling a decision  they made for themselves.

I agree

[uhhello]

3 hours ago, ecugringo said:

Arent Ukrainian Males in forced conscription?  So yeah they kinda are forced to fight.

The war goes back to 2014 with the Maiden uprising.  Losing the pro Russia govt is what pushed Putin. The question is how involved was the US in those uprisings?  State Dept was there.  Not saying this is just cause for Putin but an expansion eastward of Western influence put him in a defensive position.

A question to ask is if/when western support dries up in Ukraine and Russia eventually wins...will that loss of life be worth it for Ukraine?  Did we just help delay the inevitable and cause more death and destruction for a goal of making Putin's military weaker.

I dont think Putin is stupid.  I think a lot of things going on now are all related.

At every setback/defeat/victory in the last 2 years, there is always the comment of "I don't think Putin is stupid".  Every time there was a fuckup, there were people there to state "this is all part of the plan".  How long does this go on?  I don't think Putin is necessarily stupid but he certainly isn't smart.  He was fed a bunch of non-stop bullshit on the state of his forces and he believed it.  He DRASITCALLY underestimated the will of the Ukrainian people and more importantly the will of the western world to supply and defend them.  

[gearhog]

5 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I respect your views but with regard to Russia, it is not about the price per acre of Ukrainian land.  Instead, Russia has been humbled, their Army is in tatters and they are no longer a threat to the rest of Europe and beyond.  You've invested in the geopolitics and some of the economics, look at the demographics, this is a turning point for them and it will take a generation to recovery...if they ever do. 

Demographic wise the U.S. population in the late 60's was around 200 million, we lost 55,000 Americans over 20 years in Vietnam and it changed our country.  Russia today is a country of 143 million and they have lost approximately 120,000 in a year and a half.  Russian birthrates are again on the decline after a sight recovery to years ago, they are in real trouble.

Bottomline, for about 15% of the DoD budget we have taken a superpower out of play without the loss of any U.S. troops...that my friend is not a waste, it is a bargain.

True, I typed that partially in jest, but partially to make the point that we are contributing a portion of your and my productive value to a conflict over land that has little intrinsic value. So if we're not protecting the land,  what is it we are receiving in return for our investment in this conflict?

 "We're taking out a global superpower." Why is anyone calling Russia a superpower? Primacy of learning. We were taught as kids that they were the big baddies 40 years ago and forgot to check and see if they still met the criteria. Look at the infographic I posted above. They're number 10 or 11 in the world economy. It is because they have nukes? They're one of maybe 10. They're no more a superpower than Brazil or Italy. What is the only thing Russia has going for it? Energy. Something that is finite in supply and the rest of the world, especially the West, has a growing appetite for. The real lesson here is "Don't fuck with the petro-dollar." Soverignty, Freedom, Anti-Authoritism, is all made up BS to garner public support. Those things exist en masse in countless places around the globe. Somehow it only matters when energy and wealth are involved.

"It's a bargain". I have sister-in-law that that likes to shop. They're in a $350K house, up to their assholes in debt, and she's bringing home some bullshit knick-knack doo-dads because they were a good deal at 50% off. Well, he, an engineer, recently got a pink slip because the DoD decided they really didn't robot fuel trucks as bad as weapons for Ukraine and now I'm supposed to bail them out by buying their things they shouldn't have charged to the credit card in the first place. Sorry, that's your debt, not mine. Who is buying our debt? China currently owns about a trillion dollars worth of US treasuries. In a conflict, they would use that to wreck our economy. By indebting ourselves to fight one foe, we're exposing ourselves to another.

"They're a threat to Europe and the West." I've asked this before. If all it took was a throwing a bargain sum of money at the problem to stop Russia a few miles into Ukraine, how were they ever a threat to anyone that really matters? What's the score card on former Soviet republics joining NATO vs. joining Russia. After decades watching them being absorbed into the other team, Russia finally decides to take a stand over the shittiest and most corrupt one of the bunch. I'd say have at it. Let UKR be the anchor around their neck for next few decades, because that's exactly what they're gonna be for us. Sort of like Greece for the European Union.

120,000 of 143,000,000 is eight one-hundredths of one percent. If 15% of the DoD budget is an insignificant number, what is .08% of Russian population? I do agree with you, however. Overall, Russia is facing a demographic problem and has been since long before this war. The war isn't moving the needle. But if they are facing a demographic collapse, wouldn't that further substantiate my position that they were/are not a viable threat?

I contend that the collapse of Russia is a greater threat than its existence. As Russia leadership has a numerous times, "Why should the world exist without Russia?" There have been times in recent history where our relationship with Russia has been cooperative and mutually beneficial. Can anyone figure out the common thread during times where the relationship has soured?

This is an immensely complicated issue, and I'm trying to weigh as many factors and variables as I can comprehend. I love my country, and I love my life in it. After trying to consume and process as much information as I can, attempt to eliminate my biases, it seems apparent to me that the biggest threats to me, my family, and my community are coming from within, not without. I can appreciate that my worldview may not be 100% correct and I've said before that I'm willing to abandon it if presented with a better one.

That's why my intent here is to be somewhat disagreeable and challenging. If I were pawnman, I'd instantly submerse myself in whatever the official narrative is for the "current thing", be it COVID, Ukraine, Israel, etc., and regurgitate it without a single original or critical thought while trying to high five everybody in the room for being one of the bros. Nobody likes that.