Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, Lord Ratner said:

Yeah, that could have something to do with it. Maybe medium probability?

 

It's also possible that they realize things are spinning out of control on a global level. Again this is something I've said before that I consider to be inevitable, but if the usual power brokers are starting to fear a chain reaction, they're going to try to get ahead of it so they can claim to have been on the right side of the debate when things get really messy. I think the Democrats have been looking for an excuse to turn on Biden for a couple years now, but every time they seem to make a move they either lose their will or something works out well for Biden. Maybe the impending failure of Ukraine combined with their multi-cultural coalition falling apart over Israel has emboldened them to make a move.

 

But I don't think they have a replacement.

If what you’re trying to say is that every policy decision (regardless of who is in charge) is political, then I most definitely agree with you.  Just like other have said, no one at the higher levels of government actually cared about Ukraine and their “democracy” (they’re pretty corrupt btw)…but that’s how it was continuously sold the last 1.5 years.  So what changed?

As for wanting to get rid of Biden but struggling because the question of who would they put in…I don’t disagree per se that this is what’s happening, but the clock is ticking.  So unless they want to have the Dem convention select a candidate, and I don’t think that would go over well, even for many democrats, much less independents, they need to get on it and fast.  If I had to pick an outcome, Biden is their guy unless he can not longer even speak in front of a camera.  And if that were to happen, how does he not resign and Harris take over before the election?  I’m only about 60% confident Biden will be their guy btw.

So back to the Ukraine piece—I think the Dems will blame it on the GOP (shocker) when funding stops or becomes much, much less of what it is now.  And then the Dems will pivot the focus away from foreign policy and back to abortion, race stuff, and more welfare here in our country.

[busdriver]

On 11/2/2023 at 5:46 PM, gearhog said:

It starting to seem to me that the arguments are shifting

Then you haven't been paying attention.  In this very thread, no less.

[gearhog]

3 hours ago, busdriver said:

Then you haven't been paying attention.  In this very thread, no less.

Fascinating observation. Thanks for your contribution.

[ecugringo]

Avg age of the Ukrainian soldier is now 43.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/average-age-ukrainian-soldier-older-013736697.html

[McJay Pilot]

It would appear the Ukes smoked another Ruskie ship!

[Lawman]

It would appear the Ukes smoked another Ruskie ship!

No we’ve been assured by people who read Twitter that Ukraine is achieving nothing, this fight hasn’t resulted in the erosion of the combat power arrayed against NATO, and that we should cut aid and just force them to capitulate, because that would save US lives in the end.

Get with the narrative.


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[BashiChuni]

ukraine absolutely cannot win and should start negotiating terms.

 

[Lawman]

ukraine absolutely cannot win and should start negotiating terms.
 

The Russians have violated established sovereignty and peace established borders 9 times since the fall of the Soviet Union.

And the Ukes don’t have to “win” they have to repel and resist.

Why when you have effectively driven the aggressor onto the purely defense would you negotiate for a cease fire that only serves to restore their combat power. Russian couldn’t “win” and annex Ukraine right now without deprecating all their effective conventional combat power. They won’t do that because of their baseless fear of some impending NATO invasion in whatever crazy reality Putin lives in.


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[BashiChuni]

because our objectives are done in ukraine. russia is drained. and we have bigger problems to worry about now in the middle east.

oh and we're fucking BROKE

[Lawman]

because our objectives are done in ukraine. russia is drained. and we have bigger problems to worry about now in the middle east.
oh and we're ing BROKE

Until Russia isn’t holding forced in reserve for the impending fight for NATO, they are not attrited.

Tats how this ends, a Russian incapable of either conquering a NATO neighbor or threatening an invasion of the Baltic states. Until then we are far from broke compared to what a nuclear exchange with a Russia that foolishly invades and responds to losing would cost us.


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[BashiChuni]

jesus christ dude this is how we end up in these insane wars.

nowhere at the start of the conflict was the military goal to attrit russia until they no longer were capable of conquering NATO.

and the russia boogie man that you guys keep worrying about isn't coming thru the fulda gap... give it a rest.

[Lawman]

jesus christ dude this is how we end up in these insane wars.
nowhere at the start of the conflict was the military goal to attrit russia until they no longer were capable of conquering NATO.
and the russia boogie man that you guys keep worrying about isn't coming thru the fulda gap... give it a rest.

Again… Russia has invaded (really reconquered) neighbors continuously over the last 3 decades.


You acting surprised at a desire we stop them in the last nation they can invade (other than Moldova) who isn’t a NATO country is your inability to grasp why they are motivated to their current and past line of action.

Ukraine is the place we either burn them down, or we get to do it in an article 5 country. When facing NATO what do you think Putin responds would be to losing given what we could potentially do to his regime?


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[BashiChuni]

ukraine isn't nato. i don't care.

end of debate.

i'll wait for the article 5 country.

[Lawman]

ukraine isn't nato. i don't care.
end of debate.
i'll wait for the article 5 country.

And we will get to play with Nuclear response when the conventional fight starts going against them….

Yes much smarter strategy than letting your enemy burn themselves out against a non nuclear nation which after 18 months they still refuse to unleash the genie against. That’ll be much less costly than losing say… Antwerp or Stuttgart (god forbid say Baltimore) and the resulting costs of that fireball and fallout.


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[gearhog]

Got a call from my Rep regarding the message I left last week with a staffer. As I said, when researching the most recent Ukraine aid bill, I used the roll call to find out who voted for/against. When I got the call, I expressed all the concerns and arguments that I have made here. They were highly receptive. As a result, their office bought a social media ad asking constituents one question: "Do you support sending more Aid to Ukraine?" The answers were recorded on the Representative's website (results not public). However, the comments below the social media ad were telling. Perhaps 5% were in support of, and all the rest were something to the effect of "America First!" In my district, my Rep is supported overwhelmingly, but not on this issue it seems. It appears they may be changing their vote for the next one. Fingers crossed.

I appreciate the opportunity to work on and improve my positions here so that when I have the chance to articulate them to someone that can act on them, I can feel hopeful I've made a difference.

[BashiChuni]

you sound like a putin agent!

[raimius]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

you sound like a putin agent!

Weak attempt at trolling. Ten yard penalty, repeat first down.

[Danger41]

5 hours ago, gearhog said:

Got a call from my Rep regarding the message I left last week with a staffer. As I said, when researching the most recent Ukraine aid bill, I used the roll call to find out who voted for/against. When I got the call, I expressed all the concerns and arguments that I have made here. They were highly receptive. As a result, their office bought a social media ad asking constituents one question: "Do you support sending more Aid to Ukraine?" The answers were recorded on the Representative's website (results not public). However, the comments below the social media ad were telling. Perhaps 5% were in support of, and all the rest were something to the effect of "America First!" In my district, my Rep is supported overwhelmingly, but not on this issue it seems. It appears they may be changing their vote for the next one. Fingers crossed.

I appreciate the opportunity to work on and improve my positions here so that when I have the chance to articulate them to someone that can act on them, I can feel hopeful I've made a difference.

Where is that, out of curiosity?

[pawnman]

I love that people have this idea that if we stop giving weapons (not pallets of cash) to Ukraine, that the government will magically fix the issues at home.

They didn't use that money to fix those issues over the last 30 years. Didn't fix them pre-9/11 with the Peace Dividend. Didn't fix them between the time we left Afghanistan and the time Russia invaded Ukraine. Not sure why folks are so confident they'll suddenly dedicate those resources to the things you care about once the Ukraine situation is resolved, one way or the other.

Edited November 7, 2023 by pawnman

[gearhog]

3 hours ago, pawnman said:

I love that people have this idea that if we stop giving weapons (not pallets of cash) to Ukraine, that the government will magically fix the issues at home.

They didn't use that money to fix those issues over the last 30 years. Didn't fix them pre-9/11 with the Peace Dividend. Didn't fix them between the time we left Afghanistan and the time Russia invaded Ukraine. Not sure why folks are so confident they'll suddenly dedicate those resources to the things you care about once the Ukraine situation is resolved, one way or the other.

"We should trust and support the government sending our money to Ukraine because we can't trust the government to spend the money wisely at home."

You've read a lot of other posts here as to why we should be spending money on Ukraine. Some of them are actually understandable and intelligently argued.

Why would you follow that up with what is perhaps the dumbest, most asinine argument of the entire thread?

[BashiChuni]

https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/cia-boss-heads-for-z-day-in-kyiv-as-ukraine-falters/

 

"Wednesday, November 15th is Z-Day for the War in Ukraine. CIA Chief William Burns will arrive in Kiev for urgent, secret meetings with Zelensky. It is worth asking: How come Burns is on an urgent mission to Ukraine?

The answer to the question is that Ukraine is imploding. The crumbling of the Zelensky regime is unsurprising: Ukraine has been sustaining far too many casualties to survive for much longer. Ukraine either must find a way to make a deal with Russia or face an internal rebellion.

 

Zelensky is setting the stage to have Ukrainian General Valerii Zaluzhny arrested and purged. He’s likely to prepare the ground by firing three generals tied to Zaluzhny. (Zaluzhny’s top aide has already died in what’s described as an accident.)"

[HeloDude]

Last I checked, suspending elections is about as far from democracy as you can get.

[BashiChuni]

so is arresting and purging generals

[raimius]

Ukraine has also been taking unsustainable casualties and has been "on the verge of collapse" for at least a year, depending on which news source you read.  

 

They might be close to failing, or maybe not.  I don't trust the avg news reporter to get that correct.

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, raimius said:

Ukraine has also been taking unsustainable casualties and has been "on the verge of collapse" for at least a year, depending on which news source you read.  

 

They might be close to failing, or maybe not.  I don't trust the avg news reporter to get that correct.

That's a fair point. Considering how many sensationalist articles about the death of democracy in America I've read over the past 8ish years, and how completely unhinged all reporting about Donald Trump was and has been, it does make it hard to trust the same media to assess the political situation in a very different country and a very different part of the world.