Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[BashiChuni]

the time to use soft power was long past. expanding nato was a HUGE strategic mistake. putin didn't just wake up and decide to invade ukraine.

we were fucking around in russia's backdoor for decades and guess what...we found out

[uhhello]

45 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

the time to use soft power was long past. expanding nato was a HUGE strategic mistake. putin didn't just wake up and decide to invade ukraine.

we were fucking around in russia's backdoor for decades and guess what...we found out

What did we find out?  

[kaputt]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

the time to use soft power was long past. expanding nato was a HUGE strategic mistake. putin didn't just wake up and decide to invade ukraine.

we were fucking around in russia's backdoor for decades and guess what...we found out

This has been a bad take for two straight years man. 
 

That being said, the Democrats refusal to come to the table on the border in order to also fund Ukraine effort is frankly sick and proves they don’t give two actual shits about Ukraine or America. Their only focus is funneling more and more people across the border in order to try and force as much demographic change as possible. The “border funding” they claim was in the failed bill is mostly to streamline the asylum process, which will only ensure more masses flood the border.  

It’s not like the Republicans were looking for an either/or and wanting to completely cut funding to Ukraine. I personally think what’s happening in Ukraine is still in our national interest (and I realize some disagree with that), but the border is an absolute embarrassment and MUST be addressed. 
 

The democrats refusal to even remotely pay attention to the border and then try and play the sympathy card about Ukraine just proves that they are corrupt, inept, and don’t give a shit about doing anything that’s right for the country. 
 

If the Ukraine funding dries up, they only have themselves to blame. 

[BashiChuni]

55 minutes ago, uhhello said:

What did we find out?  

you tell me.

who's winning?

[uhhello]

41 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

you tell me.

who's winning?

Define winning.  For the gains and losses attached, the Russians have gained the following:

Absolutely destroyed any semblance of their supposedly modern military

Bolstered a severely fractured NATO

Decimated their already critical working age population

At a minimum, put their economic growth on pause due to sanctions

 

So what did Russia gain?  

This has to end eventually for political reasons.  We can't support a stalemate indefinitely but I doubt the UKR's will stop fighting and I'm sure they'll continue to receive some type of support from the West, just not to the current levels.   

[FourFans]

18 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

you tell me.

who's winning?

No one.  That's who's winning.  It's war.  No one wins in THIS war.

Counter question: What do you think would happen afterwards if Russia were allowed to go unchecked by western support?   US and NATO stops supporting Ukraine, as you think should happen, and Russia dominates and takes the entire of Ukraine.  Then what?  You think he'll stop? 

Edited December 11, 2023 by FourFans
edit: add the functional "this"

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, FourFans said:

No one.  That's who's winning.  It's war.  No one wins in war.

Counter question: What do you think would happen afterwards if Russia were allowed to go unchecked by western support?   US and NATO stops supporting Ukraine, as you think should happen, and Russia dominates and takes the entire of Ukraine.  Then what?  You think he'll stop? 

@BashiChuni not being pejorative, but your optic is somewhat tainted having been raised in what we want to be the American way of war.  Declare an objective, go take it quickly, packup and go home.  Thanks to support from the west and ever more efficient weapons have both exposed the faulty Russian war machine and equalized Ukraine on the battlefield.  Sadly the fight in Ukraine has settled into a battle of attrition that in years past would have favored Russia giving their willingness to endlessly throw their youth into the meat grinder.  Yes Ukraine wants to counter attack and regain their territory, but as long Russia continues to try and conquer Ukraine, then Ukraine has accidentally settled into the strategic position the German Commander Falkenhayn had at Verdun where the purpose was not to out maneuver or gain strategic position, but to bleed the "French white."

Ukraine is paying a horrific price, a cost that is purposely not being told, but as long as Ukraine has the support of the west, they will survive, Russia is alone and the impact is long and will be far reaching.  The impact of years of internal social issues and this conflict has reduced their young working male population, an issue that will manifest in several years and further accelerate the decline Russia as a world power.  Russia's Navy has been hurt, Russian's Air Force has been seriously degraded and Russia's army is in tatters.  Putin's expansion has been stopped and his dream of rebuilding the FSU is dead.  We need to keep it buried.

 

 

[FourFans]

16 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

@BashiChuni not being pejorative, but your optic is somewhat tainted having been raised in what we want to be the American way of war.  Declare an objective, go take it quickly, packup and go home.  Thanks to support from the west and ever more efficient weapons have both exposed the faulty Russian war machine and equalized Ukraine on the battlefield.  Sadly the fight in Ukraine has settled into a battle of attrition that in years past would have favored Russia giving their willingness to endlessly throw their youth into the meat grinder.  Yes Ukraine wants to counter attack and regain their territory, but as long Russia continues to try and conquer Ukraine, then Ukraine has accidentally settled into the strategic position the German Commander Falkenhayn had at Verdun where the purpose was not to out maneuver or gain strategic position, but to bleed the "French white."

Ukraine is paying a horrific price, a cost that is purposely not being told, but as long as Ukraine has the support of the west, they will survive, Russia is alone and the impact is long and will be far reaching.  The impact of years of internal social issues and this conflict has reduced their young working male population, an issue that will manifest in several years and further accelerate the decline Russia as a world power.  Russia's Navy has been hurt, Russian's Air Force has been seriously degraded and Russia's army is in tatters.  Putin's expansion has been stopped and his dream of rebuilding the FSU is dead.  We need to keep it buried.

Indeed.  If nothing else, the west is getting a re-introduction into the Russian (or even Eastern) way of war where body counts don't matter to the leaders so long as strategic objectives are met, or even appear to be met.  Make no mistake, Ukraine is not western in its thinking.  I'm not a Ukraine studies guy, but my gut says they'll keep fighting with or without western support.

We have to take the world as it is, not as we want it to be.  What's happening there is tragic and sad, but it can be leveraged for a strategic outcome that is better for Ukraine, and all western nations.

[BashiChuni]

12 hours ago, uhhello said:

Define winning.

 

absolute obliteration of your enemy.

[BashiChuni]

3 hours ago, FourFans said:

No one.  That's who's winning.  It's war.  No one wins in war.

Counter question: What do you think would happen afterwards if Russia were allowed to go unchecked by western support?   US and NATO stops supporting Ukraine, as you think should happen, and Russia dominates and takes the entire of Ukraine.  Then what?  You think he'll stop? 

yes. invading ukraine (a NON NATO) country with historical ties to Russia/USSR, is a much different calculus than invading other european countries.

nuance is a beautiful thing. and guess what....if putin decided to push farther then NATO kicks their ass. simple.

 

[BashiChuni]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

@BashiChuni not being pejorative, but your optic is somewhat tainted having been raised in what we want to be the American way of war.  Declare an objective, go take it quickly, packup and go home.  Thanks to support from the west and ever more efficient weapons have both exposed the faulty Russian war machine and equalized Ukraine on the battlefield.  Sadly the fight in Ukraine has settled into a battle of attrition that in years past would have favored Russia giving their willingness to endlessly throw their youth into the meat grinder.  Yes Ukraine wants to counter attack and regain their territory, but as long Russia continues to try and conquer Ukraine, then Ukraine has accidentally settled into the strategic position the German Commander Falkenhayn had at Verdun where the purpose was not to out maneuver or gain strategic position, but to bleed the "French white."

Ukraine is paying a horrific price, a cost that is purposely not being told, but as long as Ukraine has the support of the west, they will survive, Russia is alone and the impact is long and will be far reaching.  The impact of years of internal social issues and this conflict has reduced their young working male population, an issue that will manifest in several years and further accelerate the decline Russia as a world power.  Russia's Navy has been hurt, Russian's Air Force has been seriously degraded and Russia's army is in tatters.  Putin's expansion has been stopped and his dream of rebuilding the FSU is dead.  We need to keep it buried.

 

 

if this is a war of attrition ukraine has lost.

i'd place my bet on the russian bear to bleed slower than the ukranians. history backs this up.

[tac airlifter]

4 hours ago, FourFans said:

No one.  That's who's winning.  It's war.  No one wins in war.

Well that's just absurd, you can't really mean that.  Here's a short list of groups who disagree with you: the Taliban. The third Reich, the Japanese imperial army, general Ulysses Grant, the native American tribes, Cortez.  GMAFB.

I'm not sure what you were trying to say, but this is one of those squishy hearted axioms like "violence never solves anything" that we must reject as an outright falsehood.  People win in war and people lose. More than any human endeavor war has very specific winners and losers.  Your sentiments are a result of our soft and protected lives here in the modern west, a lifestyle made possible by wars we have won.

And someone will win the war in Ukraine.  Right now it appears Russia is winning, because they are not bothered by the people and material lost thus far provided they attain their objective which grows closer daily.  I don't want them to win, but I am also unwilling to deplete our treasury in pursuit of stopping them.  And what's more, I'm disgusted at people who cannot have a logical discussion about what actions the US should take in the Ukraine war to best serve our interests, people who claim anything but blind support to the Zielinski Dictatorship is somehow pro Russian.

[FourFans]

2 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

Well that's just absurd, you can't really mean that.  Here's a short list of groups who disagree with you: the Taliban. The third Reich, the Japanese imperial army, general Ulysses Grant, the native American tribes, Cortez.  GMAFB.

I'm not sure what you were trying to say, but this is one of those squishy hearted axioms like "violence never solves anything" that we must reject as an outright falsehood.  People win in war and people lose. More than any human endeavor war has very specific winners and losers.  Your sentiments are a result of our soft and protected lives here in the modern west, a lifestyle made possible by wars we have won.

And someone will win the war in Ukraine.  Right now it appears Russia is winning, because they are not bothered by the people and material lost thus far provided they attain their objective which grows closer daily.  I don't want them to win, but I am also unwilling to deplete our treasury in pursuit of stopping them.  And what's more, I'm disgusted at people who cannot have a logical discussion about what actions the US should take in the Ukraine war to best serve our interests, people who claim anything but blind support to the Zielinski Dictatorship is somehow pro Russian.

“Any soldier worth his salt should be antiwar; and still there are things worth fighting for.” - Norman Schwarzkopf

I didn't articulate it clearly enough.  Yes, some nation will eventually claim victory in Ukraine.  That's not the point.  My concern isn't about who is victorious, it's about the fact that the rest of the world will have to deal with the aftermath. The bloody unstable aftermath in which no one really won and lots of people died.

My sentiments are not based on squishy axioms.  My sentiments are based on the cold hard reality of the seeing the business end of events that armchair quarterbacks call 'engagements' and 'warfare' when in reality they are organized death, chaos and the destruction on a scale most humans alive can't comprehend...and Ukraine is a meat grinder compared to the horrible things I personally witnessed over the past twenty years.

No one here should ever advocate for war.  Conversely if it comes to the point of violence, we need to be the baddest mothers in the valley and make sure it ends quickly and decisively...which is precisely the opposite of what's happening in eastern Europe right now...and yet people talk about some kind of victory being attainable there.  It isn't.  The only options are a bad outcome or a worse outcome.  Yet some here want to church it up like there's still a possible glorious victory to be had.

Many these days are content to talk about 'winning' the war in Ukraine in the same way they talk about 'winning' in sports.   Sure, someone will come out relatively victorious.  (My prediction is a stalemate that leads to new borders and a war that never really ends until the next major conflict)  But we need to stop talking about who's 'winning' in that war.  None of them are, and it's currently going nowhere.  All that's happening now is the blunting of Russia as a nation against the cast iron of Ukrainian lives.  All that's happening now is useless death.  I understand it's the russian way of warfare, but having been witness to enough of that over my career, I'll thank everyone to stop celebrating it.

Nailing the point home about our American divorce from the realities of war is that I have heard several people, on both side of politics, ADVOCATE for a civil war in the US.  Most recently it was a retire AWACS pilot who said, "we just need to have this civil war already."   I wanted to choke him.  THIS is my point.  Stop pretending that war has no cost.  It does.  The Ukraine war is going to end Russia as a modern state...and probably Ukraine too.  The outcome is very important to us, as it will define whether we have to put more US troops into Europe or not.  It will also define just how bad the world wide post-war economic slump is.  And then there's the power vacuum when Russia loses.  Power vacuums are never a good thing.  Go read "The Dead Hand" to get a glimpse of the scary shit an imploding Russia would leave behind for all of us to deal with.  If you think America gets out of dealing with the aftermath of this war politically and economically, well, then you're just ignorant and I can do nothing to help you (that's a royal 'you', not you specifically tac airlifter).

A decisive victory was possible at the start of this thing.  It isn't anymore.  The only victory to be had will be the most costly kind, and we all get to help pay the price in some form or fashion.  That's history.  It's happened before and will happen again.

Edited December 11, 2023 by FourFans

[FourFans]

@BashiChuni

Have you read any of these? 

'Principles for dealing with the Changing World Order' - Ray Dalio

'The end of the world is just the beginning' - Peter Zeihan 

'The Fourth Turning Is Here' - Neil Howe

[BashiChuni]

ive read all of them

[BashiChuni]

1 hour ago, FourFans said:

The only victory to be had will be the most costly kind, and we all get to help pay the price in some form or fashion.  That's history.  It's happened before and will happen again.

i reject this outright. and this type of thinking has characterized our disastrous foreign policy post WWII

we are americans. we are not ukranians. the founding fathers would be appalled

[FourFans]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

i reject this outright. and this type of thinking has characterized our disastrous foreign policy post WWII

we are americans. we are not ukranians. the founding fathers would be appalled

How do you see us avoiding the fallout of:

- an imploding russia and the power vacuum it would create OR

- an emboldened russia on the border of Poland OR

- a stalemate in eastern Europe that takes a massive crap on the world food and energy markets OR

- (most likely) some horrible combination of all of those?

I'm not a globalist.  I'm a realist.  The US COULD be largely independent and even isolationist if it wants to, but our leadership simply won't be, and clearly aren't, doing that...at least not to the degree where we're completely divorced from the happenings in Europe. 

Watch our energy sector.  The moment our leaders actually start deregulating POL and start stiff arming solar/wind and all the energy that requires an import, THEN your dream will be coming true.  Good luck.

For the present, like it or not, our economy and politics are tied to events in Ukraine, and to a lesser degree Taiwan.   I don't like it either, but it's a plain fact we have to deal with.

Edited December 11, 2023 by FourFans

[BashiChuni]

ukraine never has and never will be a vital national security concern for the united states of america.

the only reason we care is because our corrupt politicians have corrupt dealings in a corrupt eastern european nation.

why was the president's crack head son doing business there? why was then vice president biden interjecting in a ukranian prosecutor's firing?

our economy and politics are not tied to events in ukraine. they only are if you want them to be.

 

[BashiChuni]

23 minutes ago, FourFans said:

How do you see us avoiding the fallout of:

- an imploding russia and the power vacuum it would create OR ?????????????????

- an emboldened russia on the border of Poland OR

 

let them be emboldened. putin isn't going to capture europe. that's extreme gas lighting and won't happen. hell he can't even take kiev and the experts are shrieking about paris. gmafb.

the second putin crosses into NATO i'll be interested. until then i DGAF

[hindsight2020]

5 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

i reject this outright. and this type of thinking has characterized our disastrous foreign policy post WWII

we are americans. we are not ukranians. the founding fathers would be appalled

I'm not israeli either for the record, while we're on this virtue signaling tour.

[Lawman]

yes. invading ukraine (a NON NATO) country with historical ties to Russia/USSR, is a much different calculus than invading other european countries.
nuance is a beautiful thing. and guess what....if putin decided to push farther then NATO kicks their ass. simple.
 

“Historical Ties to Russia/USSR.”

Well that’s an incredibly stupid point to stand on given the argument. Most of us are arguing the necessity of stopping Russia in this fight to avoid them invading the next 5 nations who are all in NATO and apparently have “historic ties to Russia.”

And yes NATO kicks in… against an opponent who is as you described justifiably fearful we will simply destroy them and likely to retaliate early and immediately with Nukes or Chem to immediately force us to stop short of a full exchange. That’ll only cost Stuttgart or Antwerp or something… no big deal right? Earlier in this thread you were screaming about the dangers of escalating with nukes because of our political support, now you’re telling us to pick the best COA likely to lead to their employment. God damn 4D-Clyde’ian-strategery right there gentlemen. Make that man a flag officer.


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[O Face]

15 minutes ago, Lawman said:

“Historical Ties to Russia/USSR.”

Well that’s an incredibly stupid point to stand on given the argument. Most of us are arguing the necessity of stopping Russia in this fight to avoid them invading the next 5 nations who are all in NATO and apparently have “historic ties to Russia.”

And yes NATO kicks in… against an opponent who is as you described justifiably fearful we will simply destroy them and likely to retaliate early and immediately with Nukes or Chem to immediately force us to stop short of a full exchange. That’ll only cost Stuttgart or Antwerp or something… no big deal right? Earlier in this thread you were screaming about the dangers of excelation with nukes in our political support, now you’re telling us to pick the best COA likely to lead to their employment. God damn 4D-Clyde’ian-strategery right there gentlemen. Make that man a flag officer.


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I didn’t have anything intelligent to add, so I went with immaturity instead. 

[Boomer6]

I think bashi is, and has been, trolling so much in this thread that he possibly thinks he’s still logged in as chang. It’s either that or he’s having an existential crisis..
 

[Lawman]

I didn’t have anything intelligent to add, so I went with immaturity instead. 

Dude I can’t wait to tell the DCG tomorrow that the reason we can’t invoke article V to defend his home country is because of their “historic ties to Russia.”

He’s gonna be confused for a second and think it’s as stupid an idea as I just said. That deserves to be laughed at. But it goes to a wider conversation we had about why it seems like a good size chunk of Americans want to give Putin Eastern Europe like it’s his. After spending the pages of response to point out how clueless Bashi’s points are who give a crap at this point if we just agree he’s an idiot and state it openly.

Go read a history book on Russia’s “historic ties” to the Eastern European states some time. If you would describe that as some sort of equal relationship and not just outright soft/hard power conquest and subjugation you’re clueless. It’s also a repeated line of justification by the Russians to execute the annexation of Ukraine as legitimate but it wouldn’t be the first time he and others have peddled those talking points.


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[O Face]

Wait, was your last response to me?  I don’t even know what the fuck a DCG is, solid NameDrop though. However, I do know that you and Bashi are never going to convert one another. I also know that very few Americans “want to give Putin Eastern Europe like it’s his” most notably because Eastern Europe is not America’s to give.  I also know that many Americans are a lot less concerned about Ukraine’s borders than our own borders, which this administration clearly has no interest in defending. I also highly doubt Bashi or Gearhog are KGB, but you seem comfortable calling them Putin operatives quite frequently. So, could they start calling you a Maduro shill since you’re more interested in sending billions of $ to Ukraine instead of fighting a Venezuelan invasion right here in our own southern border?  The point is, maybe a bunch of Americans feel that some of that fake gov cheese should be spent here instead of there.  I know, I know, now I’m a Putin fanboy too. I best start shopping for this season’s ushanka hat. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by O Face