Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Lord Ratner]

On 2/22/2022 at 2:12 PM, uhhello said:

Did a few visits/exchanges with FSU states and their mindset was eye opening.  We're very lucky as Americans to live where we do and what we DON'T have to worry about on a daily basis.  

Could you elaborate?

[FLEA]

5 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Could you elaborate?

Here are some interesting things I've picked up working heavily in NATO/Europe. Really opened my aperture for how I see the world. 

1.) Europeans do not see the US as the winners of WW2. They believe WW2 was largely won by the time the US entered and US entry just accelerated the end. They view the war through the cost paid to attain victory and the majority of those costs were paid by the UK and the Soviet Union, especially the Soviet Union. They do recognize that the US was in a prime position to delineate peace outcomes though; see our earlier conversation about world leadership. 

2.) Russia and many FSUs don't believe Russia lost the Cold War. They believe the Cold War ended mutually after Gorbachev initiated a series of actions to approach Bush about de-escalation because Gorbachev realized the Cold War was upsetting the global order. They literally cast their own leader as the hero, and see the entire affair as a draw. The US and NATO betrayed these outcomes when they began rapidly expanding NATO eastward despite promises they would not. 

3.) About half of senior German officers in the German armed forces were East German officers when they joined. They usually came from astute, pro party families to attain this position and as such they largely see the world through Russia's lens and not ours. They are larger dissenters in most situations than other FSUs, who's entry into NATO was under different circumstances. 

4.) There are LOTS of people in the world who DO NOT WANT to live in a democracy. This is really hard for us to grasp as it's such a central value to us we can't see how anyone wouldn't want it. But you have to imagine first, how they are educated, then second, think for a minute: when they turn on American cable news, what do they see? BLM protest burning cars, rioting, looting stores. The January 6th riots taking over the US capital. Extremely unpopular leaders like Trump and Biden winning elections. Thats how they see Democracy, and they legitimately believe Democratic states are filled with political unrest, violence and instability. They believe a strong authoritarian government is necessary to enforce rule of law. 

5.) The Cold War has been over almost as long as the Cold War lasted now yet we still continue to frame our foreign policy through it's echos. 

One thing I have difficulty explaining to civilian family and friends is the geopolitical nuance in war and how it's never clearly black or white but usually lots of grey. But people want easy answers because they want to know "who to support, who's the good guys?" Of course it's never clearly simple and in war good guys are rare. Good sides are rarer because states by nature do not have morality, just interests. That's something our US education system doesn't teach in enough depth for people to really comprehend the underlying levels of it. 

On another note, Tulsi Gabbard made a tweet today that she believes war could have possibly been avoided if the US agreed to address Russia's concerns about Ukrainian entry into NATO. This tweet was largely condemned by pundits which I think is a shame because I think she is right. Historically it's been European tyrants invading Russia. Not Russian tyrants invading Europe. And until we recognize that Russia doesn't want another Hittler or Napolean getting within 60nm of Moscow we probably are going to struggle to understand their interests and foreign policy position. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by FLEA

[ClearedHot]

Ukrainians appear willing to fight initially but the Russians have complete Air Supremacy and the Ukrainian ground forces are going to pay a horrible price. 

War is just horrible and a lot of people are going to die because of a madman.

[FLEA]

25 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Ukrainians appear willing to fight initially but the Russians have complete Air Supremacy and the Ukrainian ground forces are going to pay a horrible price. 

War is just horrible and a lot of people are going to die because of a madman.

Yeah, the lack of air power is really whats going to kill the Ukraine. They have defensible numbers otherwise and their military is in a much better state than 2014. But only 50 fighter jets against several hundred 😕 not good...

[hockeydork]

30 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Ukrainians appear willing to fight initially but the Russians have complete Air Supremacy and the Ukrainian ground forces are going to pay a horrible price. 

War is just horrible and a lot of people are going to die because of a madman.

New era if you ask me. This is the final act that proves West and East will never be amicable. We had better start realizing that, working hard, and strengthening our own resolve, or we will fall like many strong others have before us. 

 

Horrifying.

Edited February 24, 2022 by hockeydork

[tac airlifter]

Flea, great post.  I 100% agree with all your observations based on my brief time in NATO as well.  Also agree on your comments WRT Gabbard’s post.  It was foolish and naïve of us not to acquiesce diplomatically to Russia’s need for a land buffer between NATO & Russia.  
 

We need to stop calling every adversary  evil because it makes fighting them the only answer.  Not everybody is “literally Hitler.”  We’ve definitely fought evil people where destroying them was our only option— ISIS, AQ, etc.  But I think we could have negotiated better with Russia.  Now there is real war which is horrible.  To be clear- it’s Russia’s fault for the things they’re doing.  But did our insistence Putin = Hitler blind is from taking seriously Russia’s desire for border security?  Maybe.
 

[Sua Sponte]

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

Here are some interesting things I've picked up working heavily in NATO/Europe. Really opened my aperture for how I see the world. 

1.) Europeans do not see the US as the winners of WW2. They believe WW2 was largely won by the time the US entered and US entry just accelerated the end. They view the war through the cost paid to attain victory and the majority of those costs were paid by the UK and the Soviet Union, especially the Soviet Union. They do recognize that the US was in a prime position to delineate peace outcomes though; see our earlier conversation about world leadership. 

2.) Russia and many FSUs don't believe Russia lost the Cold War. They believe the Cold War ended mutually after Gorbachev initiated a series of actions to approach Bush about de-escalation because Gorbachev realized the Cold War was upsetting the global order. They literally cast their own leader as the hero, and see the entire affair as a draw. The US and NATO betrayed these outcomes when they began rapidly expanding NATO eastward despite promises they would not. 

3.) About half of senior German officers in the German armed forces were East German officers when they joined. They usually came from astute, pro party families to attain this position and as such they largely see the world through Russia's lens and not ours. They are larger dissenters in most situations than other FSUs, who's entry into NATO was under different circumstances. 

4.) There are LOTS of people in the world who DO NOT WANT to live in a democracy. This is really hard for us to grasp as it's such a central value to us we can't see how anyone wouldn't want it. But you have to imagine first, how they are educated, then second, think for a minute: when they turn on American cable news, what do they see? BLM protest burning cars, rioting, looting stores. The January 6th riots taking over the US capital. Extremely unpopular leaders like Trump and Biden winning elections. Thats how they see Democracy, and they legitimately believe Democratic states are filled with political unrest, violence and instability. They believe a strong authoritarian government is necessary to enforce rule of law. 

5.) The Cold War has been over almost as long as the Cold War lasted now yet we still continue to frame our foreign policy through it's echos. 

One thing I have difficulty explaining to civilian family and friends is the geopolitical nuance in war and how it's never clearly black or white but usually lots of grey. But people want easy answers because they want to know "who to support, who's the good guys?" Of course it's never clearly simple and in war good guys are rare. Good sides are rarer because states by nature do not have morality, just interests. That's something our US education system doesn't teach in enough depth for people to really comprehend the underlying levels of it. 

On another note, Tulsi Gabbard made a tweet today that she believes war could have possibly been avoided if the US agreed to address Russia's concerns about Ukrainian entry into NATO. This tweet was largely condemned by pundits which I think is a shame because I think she is right. Historically it's been European tyrants invading Russia. Not Russian tyrants invading Europe. And until we recognize that Russia doesn't want another Hittler or Napolean getting within 60nm of Moscow we probably are going to struggle to understand their interests and foreign policy position. 

This is spot on one thing I would add to #4 is the Ukrainian people have made it very clear that they prefer western democracy to Russian authoritarianism, hence the invasion. There are, however, pockets of ethnic Russians in Ukraine who prefer to live under Russian rule. Personally, I think Crimea was one of those areas. 

[NKAWTG]

Putin will roll over Ukraine fairly quickly.  He's been prepping that battlespace for years and won't find a better time to execute it.  I'm betting our response will be some CIA insurgency supporting type of operation that will keep poking the bear for years to come.  Not sure how I feel about that since it will keep tensions fairly high over the next decade or so.  

[ClearedHot]

Who is watching what coverage? 

Fox has the occasional live shot but is mainly putting talking heads on the air and while Gen Keane has some good insights I would rather see snippets of what is actually happening.  CNN has had very good coverage with reporters in key locations.  Did anyone see the reporter walk up and talk to some soldiers he thought were Ukrainian, they were actually Russian Paratroopers that just airdropped in and seized the airfield.  He said spoke to the Russian commander and the guy straight up said now we are going to establish an air bridge.  It was like being at a Multi-Lat 20 years ago. 

CNN also has a crew on the Russian side of the border and they are filming all the tanks and mobile artillery streaming on to Ukraine.  Shocked Putin is allowing that coverage unless he is sending a message to Ukraine.

[hockeydork]

51 minutes ago, tac airlifter said:

Flea, great post.  I 100% agree with all your observations based on my brief time in NATO as well.  Also agree on your comments WRT Gabbard’s post.  It was foolish and naïve of us not to acquiesce diplomatically to Russia’s need for a land buffer between NATO & Russia.  
 

We need to stop calling every adversary  evil because it makes fighting them the only answer.  Not everybody is “literally Hitler.”  We’ve definitely fought evil people where destroying them was our only option— ISIS, AQ, etc.  But I think we could have negotiated better with Russia.  Now there is real war which is horrible.  To be clear- it’s Russia’s fault for the things they’re doing.  But did our insistence Putin = Hitler blind is from taking seriously Russia’s desire for border security?  Maybe.
 

Can I ask why Russia feels a Ukraine on its border is a violation of border security? Are we actually floating the idea that Ukraine would invade Russia, or that Russia would somehow be attacked by NATO? By negotiating with them, you are acknowledging, and even worse, VALIDATING their crackpot theory that NATO wants to invade them. 

You say foolish of us, I say foolish of them. It is foolish of them to go restart an empire game on planet earth. How many Americans wake up everyday and say man, I'd really like to go kill some Russians and take their shit/land right now? ...probably not many. 

Putin can't allow the spread of democracy/"more like democracy" to his border because he is an autocrat, and those people never stop wanting more. They are takers, not givers. He isn't concerned about Russian security, he is concerned about the security of his own power. Just like Napoleon and Hitler. His buffer state isn't for the Russian people, it's for HIM. He is cut from the same cloth as every tyrant in history. What is your definition of evil? He fits mine. 

IMO, today was way more of a threat to the American way of life than ISIS ever was. That is coming from someone born and raised about 45 minutes north of NYC. Today is a scarier day for the world than the day some nutjobs flew planes into buildings. 

Not saying we should have run to the rescue. Maybe this will be a good wake up call to Europe. But I will say a Ukrainian soldier fighting for democracy is much more of an American than half the people I walk past at Walmart. 

 

[fire4effect]

Like most reports in wartime you can take it with a grain of salt but I hope they are inflicting real pain on the Russians

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwilgv3l0Zj2AhUrITQIHZN2AycQFnoECAoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fukraine-says-50-russian-troops-killed-four-tanks-destroyed-2022-02-24%2F&usg=AOvVaw1L0qDQ_2L2By7tCCChA5oh

[ClearedHot]

10 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

Can I ask why Russia feels a Ukraine on its border is a violation of border security? Are we actually floating the idea that Ukraine would invade Russia, or that Russia would somehow be attacked by NATO? By negotiating with them, you are acknowledging, and even worse, VALIDATING their crackpot theory that NATO wants to invade them.

Because you are viewing this through the lens of an American.  Putin is a lunatic but his views have been shaped by a life dedicated to the Russian intelligence apparatus.  When the FSU fragmented it destroyed everything he had worked for and in many ways the world as he knew it.  Also, Russians still recall the great invasions through history and it shapes their psyche at the foundation.  Whether we think NATO would actually attack is irrelevant, the Russians believe it. 

Also, for just a second flash back to how we reacted when the Russian's put tactical nukes in Cuba...we were ready to go to war.  Northern parts of the Ukrainian border are less than 300 miles from Moscow and whether is seems reasonable or not to us, Putin sees that as a threat.

[hockeydork]

7 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Because you are viewing this through the lens of an American.  Putin is a lunatic but his views have been shaped by a life dedicated to the Russian intelligence apparatus.  When the FSU fragmented it destroyed everything he had worked for and in many ways the world as he knew it.  Also, Russians still recall the great invasions through history and it shapes their psyche at the foundation.  Whether we think NATO would actually attack is irrelevant, the Russians believe it. 

Also, for just a second flash back to how we reacted when the Russian's put tactical nukes in Cuba...we were ready to go to war.  Northern parts of the Ukrainian border are less than 300 miles from Moscow and whether is seems reasonable or not to us, Putin sees that as a threat.

I get your point, but the world can't march to the beat of one man's archaic view. Also we didn't threaten to put nukes in Ukraine, as far as I know. If we did, then I would expect this sort of incursion. 

[ClearedHot]

4 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

I get your point, but the world can't march to the beat of one man's archaic view.

The world is not marching to one man's drum beat, Putin is marching to his own beat and so far no one has the stones to stand in front oh him.

5 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

Also we didn't threaten to put nukes in Ukraine, as far as I know. If we did, then I would expect this sort of incursion. 

Doesn't matter, we allowed the discussion of Ukraine's admission to NATO to linger in an ambiguous stage for far too long.  Also, we have put Strategic Defense interceptor missiles in other former FSU countries that we admitted to NATO.  I am not saying his view and fears are valid, but we can't discount them through our lens.

[Prozac]

22 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Because you are viewing this through the lens of an American.  Putin is a lunatic but his views have been shaped by a life dedicated to the Russian intelligence apparatus.  When the FSU fragmented it destroyed everything he had worked for and in many ways the world as he knew it.  Also, Russians still recall the great invasions through history and it shapes their psyche at the foundation.  Whether we think NATO would actually attack is irrelevant, the Russians believe it. 

Also, for just a second flash back to how we reacted when the Russian's put tactical nukes in Cuba...we were ready to go to war.  Northern parts of the Ukrainian border are less than 300 miles from Moscow and whether is seems reasonable or not to us, Putin sees that as a threat.

America’s & NATO’s viewpoint is the right one. Putin’s viewpoint is that of an autocratic dictator, is simply wrong, and doesn’t deserve to be regarded seriously. Sovereign nations are free to choose their own paths and allies. If Putin is losing influence over former Soviet states it is because he cannot or will not offer them what the West can. Namely peace, freedom, and security. 

[uhhello]

3 hours ago, FLEA said:

Here are some interesting things I've picked up working heavily in NATO/Europe. Really opened my aperture for how I see the world. 

1.) Europeans do not see the US as the winners of WW2. They believe WW2 was largely won by the time the US entered and US entry just accelerated the end. They view the war through the cost paid to attain victory and the majority of those costs were paid by the UK and the Soviet Union, especially the Soviet Union. They do recognize that the US was in a prime position to delineate peace outcomes though; see our earlier conversation about world leadership. 

2.) Russia and many FSUs don't believe Russia lost the Cold War. They believe the Cold War ended mutually after Gorbachev initiated a series of actions to approach Bush about de-escalation because Gorbachev realized the Cold War was upsetting the global order. They literally cast their own leader as the hero, and see the entire affair as a draw. The US and NATO betrayed these outcomes when they began rapidly expanding NATO eastward despite promises they would not. 

3.) About half of senior German officers in the German armed forces were East German officers when they joined. They usually came from astute, pro party families to attain this position and as such they largely see the world through Russia's lens and not ours. They are larger dissenters in most situations than other FSUs, who's entry into NATO was under different circumstances. 

4.) There are LOTS of people in the world who DO NOT WANT to live in a democracy. This is really hard for us to grasp as it's such a central value to us we can't see how anyone wouldn't want it. But you have to imagine first, how they are educated, then second, think for a minute: when they turn on American cable news, what do they see? BLM protest burning cars, rioting, looting stores. The January 6th riots taking over the US capital. Extremely unpopular leaders like Trump and Biden winning elections. Thats how they see Democracy, and they legitimately believe Democratic states are filled with political unrest, violence and instability. They believe a strong authoritarian government is necessary to enforce rule of law. 

5.) The Cold War has been over almost as long as the Cold War lasted now yet we still continue to frame our foreign policy through it's echos. 

One thing I have difficulty explaining to civilian family and friends is the geopolitical nuance in war and how it's never clearly black or white but usually lots of grey. But people want easy answers because they want to know "who to support, who's the good guys?" Of course it's never clearly simple and in war good guys are rare. Good sides are rarer because states by nature do not have morality, just interests. That's something our US education system doesn't teach in enough depth for people to really comprehend the underlying levels of it. 

On another note, Tulsi Gabbard made a tweet today that she believes war could have possibly been avoided if the US agreed to address Russia's concerns about Ukrainian entry into NATO. This tweet was largely condemned by pundits which I think is a shame because I think she is right. Historically it's been European tyrants invading Russia. Not Russian tyrants invading Europe. And until we recognize that Russia doesn't want another Hittler or Napolean getting within 60nm of Moscow we probably are going to struggle to understand their interests and foreign policy position. 

My time in Estonia dealing with their version of our SF, was the opposite of everything you said 🙂

[ClearedHot]

4 minutes ago, Prozac said:

America’s & NATO’s viewpoint is the right one. Putin’s viewpoint is that of an autocratic dictator, is simply wrong, and doesn’t deserve to be regarded seriously. Sovereign nations are free to choose their own paths and allies. If Putin is losing influence over former Soviet states it is because he cannot or will not offer them what the West can. Namely peace, freedom, and security. 

Yet he just invaded and no one is doing anything other than dropping some sanctions that he doesn't care about.  To stop an adversary you generally want to understand his motivations.  Right or wrong, he is doing what he wants.

[hockeydork]

16 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

The world is not marching to one man's drum beat, Putin is marching to his own beat and so far no one has the stones to stand in front oh him.

 

Valid. And assuming you are referencing Aegis ashore? Again, its defensive. If we had mobile land based nukes in Romania, his math would check but it doesn't. He's being a douche. 

[SocialD]

8 minutes ago, uhhello said:

My time in Estonia dealing with their version of our SF, was the opposite of everything you said 🙂

 

Having spent some time there as well, I tend to agree.   The Estonians love us and wanted us there big time...though their views may not be shared across the EU.  

[hockeydork]

I think understanding him means you understand that there was no negotiating with him. This is about his empire, his territory, his power. He will take what he can, and will lie about his justification. He saw an opportunity to grab Boardwalk and Park Place by force, morality be damned.  

[Blue]

14 minutes ago, Prozac said:

America’s & NATO’s viewpoint is the right one. Putin’s viewpoint is that of an autocratic dictator, is simply wrong, and doesn’t deserve to be regarded seriously. 

Gray! The world is gray, Jack!

[ClearedHot]

1 minute ago, hockeydork said:

Valid. And assuming you are referencing Aegis ashore? Again, its defensive. If we had mobile land based nukes in Romania, his math would check but it doesn't. He's being a douche. 

I understand what you are saying but it doesn't matter if his math checks with us, it checks with him so he is acting. 

Believe it or not I've sat in a conference room at the former KGB headquarters with the head of the FSB and the FSK.  The discussions were eye opening.  The FSB guys were gregarious, the FSK folks looked at me with disdain and all of their inputs went back to the Cold War and the old FSU structure.  The would readily admit we don't have mobile nukes in Romania, but we could with a single C-17.

[Prozac]

6 minutes ago, Blue said:

Gray! The world is gray, Jack!

Yeah, but you’ve still got to pick a side every now & then. 

[kaputt]

I find it hard to fathom that had we simply just said “Ukraine will never join NATO”, that we would have avoided this whole thing. 
 

From my view, that opinion, and Tulsi’s opinion, is too black and white in the other direction.

That’s all irrelevant now anyway since Russia is there and currently steam rolling. 

[SurelySerious]

I find it hard to fathom that had we simply just said “Ukraine will never join NATO”, that we would have avoided this whole thing. 

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