Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[FLEA]

12 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

CIA director Bill Burns in 2008: "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for [Russia]" and "I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests"

This right here.... This isn't FLEA in 2022 playing devil's advocate.... This is like 30 years of top academics and policy experts ignored because politicians love the easy "feel good" win of cozying up to NATO. For 40 years America simply saw NATO as "the good guys" and developed this strong idealogy that if NATO is good, more NATO must be better. We knew this in 88-91. What happened? 

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

[kaputt]

Dude, everyone here gets what you're saying. The Russians (well, mostly Putin) view NATO and its growth differently than we do. That's not in dispute.

Decades old promises from former US and other world leaders is great, but geopolitics changes and, like it or not, the people that lived in these former Soviet republics get a say in how they want to live and be governed, and they have overwhelmingly clamored to be part of the western system and NATO. 

 

[FLEA]

16 minutes ago, kaputt said:

Dude, everyone here gets what you're saying. The Russians (well, mostly Putin) view NATO and its growth differently than we do. That's not in dispute.

Decades old promises from former US and other world leaders is great, but geopolitics changes and, like it or not, the people that lived in these former Soviet republics get a say in how they want to live and be governed, and they have overwhelmingly clamored to be part of the western system and NATO. 

 

Sure, and they could have lived in free capitalist democracies that weren't apart of NATO. Noone ever said you have to be in NATO to be a free capitalist democracy. Japan isn't in NATO. South Korea isn't. Australia isn't. 

WE didn't have to accept them. They don't just get to join NATO because they filled out a membership app. We voted with approval to do it, knowing for 30 years it wasn't in our interest. 

Did we ever think for a minute what the ramifications were of tieing ourselves to an obligation to defend every fledgeling state that signs a treaty to us. Do you have any idea how dangerous that is? How much blood and treasure that incurs? Don't make commitments you don't intend to keep because that is the cross roads we are at. If Lithuania is attacked tomorrow, we face the very real probability of large American metropolises being decimated to the point they'll never be recovered because we decided NATO was important enough it was worth aggravating Russia over. Mean while, if we are attacked, what's Lithuania going to do? Send an infantry battalion and an ambulance team? Ok thanks.....

[kaputt]

4 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Sure, and they could have lived in free capitalist democracies that weren't apart of NATO. Noone ever said you have to be in NATO to be a free capitalist democracy. Japan isn't in NATO. South Korea isn't. Australia isn't. 

WE didn't have to accept them. They don't just get to join NATO because they filled out a membership app. We voted with approval to do it, knowing for 30 years it wasn't in our interest. 

Did we ever think for a minute what the ramifications were of tieing ourselves to an obligation to defend every fledgeling state that signs a treaty to us. Do you have any idea how dangerous that is? How much blood and treasure that incurs? Don't make commitments you don't intend to keep because that is the cross roads we are at. If Lithuania is attacked tomorrow, we face the very real probability of large American metropolises being decimated to the point they'll never be recovered because we decided NATO was important enough it was worth aggravating Russia over. Mean while, if we are attacked, what's Lithuania going to do? Send an infantry battalion and an ambulance team? Ok thanks.....

Sorry man, but the bolded part just proves your arguments aren't based in any sort of reality.

The only way your argument makes sense is if we could all travel back in time to the dissolvement of the Soviet Union and disband NATO at that time. I think there is a small case that could be made that a move like that may have been the right call to reset the clock in Europe in 1990s. I would also say our distraction in the middle east led to the Vladimir Putin problem going unchecked for too long.

But none of that can be changed now and suddenly we're back to facing a ruthless autocrat showing signs of a desire to re-divide Europe. We now have to approach the world in the current reality, not look back on what if's and coulda, woulda, shouldas. 

You've kind of been all over the place in what you're arguing, but it seems ultimately it comes down to you have a disdain for the NATO alliance in general. NATO has its problems, that's for damn sure, but at this moment in time it's probably the only thing keeping one man from re-carving up the continent to fit his personal whims. So yeah, I do think defending Lithuanian sovereignty is a worthwhile objective because that defense goes beyond one country and is an answer to ruthless, state-controlled system that has no place in the modern world.  

[FLEA]

By the way you are all making a massive leap in assumptions that current protest against the war in Russia are popular opinion or mainstream opinion. These protest are more than likely led by a vocal minority that is getting stage lit by western media in am attempt to promote their contempt. Opinion polling in Russia has show declining acceptance of western policy for some time. 

https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_how_russia_has_come_to_loathe_the_west311346/?amp

 

And I could be wrong, perhaps people in Russia are largely against the war. But there is no way of really knowing. We aren't hearing the full story of what's happening on Russia's interior and that makes it hard to understand. 

[FLEA]

1 hour ago, kaputt said:

Sorry man, but the bolded part just proves your arguments aren't based in any sort of reality.

The only way your argument makes sense is if we could all travel back in time to the dissolvement of the Soviet Union and disband NATO at that time. I think there is a small case that could be made that a move like that may have been the right call to reset the clock in Europe in 1990s. I would also say our distraction in the middle east led to the Vladimir Putin problem going unchecked for too long.

But none of that can be changed now and suddenly we're back to facing a ruthless autocrat showing signs of a desire to re-divide Europe. We now have to approach the world in the current reality, not look back on what if's and coulda, woulda, shouldas. 

You've kind of been all over the place in what you're arguing, but it seems ultimately it comes down to you have a disdain for the NATO alliance in general. NATO has its problems, that's for damn sure, but at this moment in time it's probably the only thing keeping one man from re-carving up the continent to fit his personal whims. So yeah, I do think defending Lithuanian sovereignty is a worthwhile objective because that defense goes beyond one country and is an answer to ruthless, state-controlled system that has no place in the modern world.  

Why yes... I am saying we should have stopped NATO expansion in 1990 when we had the chance. There wouldn't be a Vladmir Putin problem if we did. Not only that we had several off ramps including up until February when Vladmir Putin sent President Biden a list of demands that encompassed his security concerns in central Europe. 

You writing about the neccesity of NATO to hold back Russia is like a self licking ice cream cone. They created the problem they are solving. So forgive me if I'm a little hesitant to thank them for holding Russia at bay. 

I don't have a disdain for NATO. I am a bit surprised by a complete lack of SA though, to admit we could have handled our foreign policy better the last 30 years. I don't think Putin miscalculated, I think we did. We miscalculated that Putin was bluffing when he said he would take his security into his own hands if NATO didn't back off his doorstep. Now we act like we are surprised and he is irrational that he took his security into his own hands when NATO approached his doorstep. 

NATO was an organization that was designed, as they said, to keep America in, Russia out and Germany down. By 1991 the world order changed and none of that was needed. However we lacked the strategic agility to realize that and adjust strategy to renegotiate a better world. Now we are facing what is probably the closest we've been to nuclear war since the Cuban missile crises and I'm shocked at the number of people on here who are OK with that over a conflict that was entirely preventable with diplomacy. 

But I think your solution to all this is to stop waiting and just take the fight to Putin. You just said it. The world has no place for his system. So your solution is to what? Get NATO to just invade Russia and oust him? Man.... Putin certainly doesn't have any security concerns from NATO or the US.....

Edited March 4, 2022 by FLEA

[Best-22]

I had a guy in my neighborhood growing up that was convinced all USPS/FedEx/USPS trucks were actually secret government spy vehicles. He would go out in the street with his camcorder and record himself calling the cops on the "spies" while yelling at them in his sweatpants and hitting the trucks with a baseball bat. 

 

Bashichuni and FLEA would tell you "well we have to consider his perspective that trucks are a red line in his neighborhood, receiving mail is provocative to him so it's your fault he attacks when you receive mail" 

[FLEA]

2 minutes ago, Best-22 said:

I had a guy in my neighborhood growing up that was convinced all USPS/FedEx/USPS trucks were actually secret government spy vehicles. He would go out in the street with his camcorder and record himself calling the cops on the "spies" while yelling at them in his sweatpants and hitting the trucks with a baseball bat. 

 

Bashichuni and FLEA would tell you "well we have to consider his perspective that trucks are a red line in his neighborhood, receiving mail is provocative to him so it's your fault he attacks when you receive mail" 

So it was cool when Russia put nukes in Cuba right? They were only there to defend Cuba. You will be cool next month when Putin puts nukes in Belarus as well right? They are there for Belarus' defense after all. 

But the hilarious thing is, you guys are on here, calling Putin a madman that needs removed from power, but then call him crazy when he says he feels threatened from the west. Like bro, you just threatened him. 

[Best-22]

1 minute ago, FLEA said:

So it was cool when Russia put nukes in Cuba right? They were only there to defend Cuba. You will be cool next month when Putin puts nukes in Belarus as well right? They are there for Belarus' defense after all. 

But the hilarious thing is, you guys are on here, calling Putin a madman that needs removed from power, but then call him crazy when he says he feels threatened from the west. Like bro, you just threatened him. 

At the end of the day, there was no existential threat or imminent military action aimed at Moscow that forced an invasion of Ukraine. Use as many false equivalencies or "what if" scenarios as you'd like, but nothing changes that fact. 

 

You want it to be one way, but it's the other way. 

[FLEA]

13 minutes ago, Best-22 said:

At the end of the day, there was no existential threat or imminent military action aimed at Moscow that forced an invasion of Ukraine. Use as many false equivalencies or "what if" scenarios as you'd like, but nothing changes that fact. 

 

You want it to be one way, but it's the other way. 

You misread my take and the situation very severely. I agree Putin overstepped with Ukraine. I'm not backing his decision. Im saying this could have been solved with diplomacy as recently as 3 weeks ago and nobody was interested in doing that. Putin handed us a letter and told us want would prevent his action and we completely dismissed it. Now I'm not saying just cave to all of his dands but certainly some of them were entertainable. Everyone thought Putin was bluffing, and he wasn't. I dont think he was justified but I think this was preventable. Putin didn't miscalculate, the vast majority of Intel shows he expected sanctions and started hardening his economy for it. We miscalculated. When you're talking about the world's largest nuclear power and the lives of 10s of millions of civilians, you do not get to ride on a pass of " 'Merica, fuck yeah." You need to be a responsible player. Our interests is the lives of our citizens, that certainly becomes more important to me than Ukranian lives or freedoms any day. But there are far to many people on here that seem ready to just jump straight to war not believing Putin will go tooth an nail on this. You already miscalculated once. Why are you so sure you won't do it again? 

[ecugringo]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

You misread my take and the situation very severely. I agree Putin overstepped with Ukraine. I'm not backing his decision. Im saying this could have been solved with diplomacy as recently as 3 weeks ago and nobody was interested in doing that. Putin handed us a letter and told us want would prevent his action and we completely dismissed it. Now I'm not saying just cave to all of his dands but certainly some of them were entertainable. Everyone thought Putin was bluffing, and he wasn't. I dont think he was justified but I think this was preventable. Putin didn't miscalculate, the vast majority of Intel shows he expected sanctions and started hardening his economy for it. We miscalculated. When you're talking about the world's largest nuclear power and the lives of 10s of millions of civilians, you do not get to ride on a pass of " 'Merica, yeah." You need to be a responsible player. Our interests is the lives of our citizens, that certainly becomes more important to me than Ukranian lives or freedoms any day. But there are far to many people on here that seem ready to just jump straight to war not believing Putin will go tooth an nail on this. You already miscalculated once. Why are you so sure you won't do it again? 

You are only speculating on his demands.  I dont underestimate Putin at all and I think he's the strongest player in this chess match.  Everyone needs to figure out what his end game is.  As you stated he prepped for sanctions.  He knew taking Ukraine would isolate him on the global playing field.  Do you really think Ukraine is the end zone?  my guess is no.  He wants to make Western Europe his bitch and control fuel/gas prices they must buy.  I think he also wants a bigger say in how oil prices fluctuate globally.  His population is dying.  In his mind if he doesnt expand Russia will be nothing more than Ft. McMurry is in Canada in 50 years.

[pawnman]

9 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

Very infantile analysis of Russia. You’re seeing everything from your western perspective 

Is this like when liberals told me I couldn't judge Islamic countries for honor killings "because it's their culture, you just don't understand"?

[BashiChuni]

43 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Is this like when liberals told me I couldn't judge Islamic countries for honor killings "because it's their culture, you just don't understand"?

No

[BashiChuni]

5 hours ago, Best-22 said:

I had a guy in my neighborhood growing up that was convinced all USPS/FedEx/USPS trucks were actually secret government spy vehicles. He would go out in the street with his camcorder and record himself calling the cops on the "spies" while yelling at them in his sweatpants and hitting the trucks with a baseball bat. 

 

Bashichuni and FLEA would tell you "well we have to consider his perspective that trucks are a red line in his neighborhood, receiving mail is provocative to him so it's your fault he attacks when you receive mail" 

Lol does he have thousands of nuclear weapons? ☢️ 

Did you read the twitter thread I posted that had the US’s leading foreign policy thinkers warning us for decades that we were poking the bear? (Pun intended)

provoking nuclear armed states is not in the best interest of US foreign policy. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by BashiChuni

[BashiChuni]

4 hours ago, Best-22 said:

At the end of the day, there was no existential threat or imminent military action aimed at Moscow that forced an invasion of Ukraine. 

That is YOUR OPINION. 

do you think Putin shares your western opinion? 
 

“NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders,” Putin complained. NATO expansion “represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?” - Putin 2007

Edited March 4, 2022 by BashiChuni

[goingkinetic]

6 hours ago, FLEA said:

Sure, and they could have lived in free capitalist democracies that weren't apart of NATO. Noone ever said you have to be in NATO to be a free capitalist democracy. Japan isn't in NATO. South Korea isn't. Australia isn't. 

WE didn't have to accept them. They don't just get to join NATO because they filled out a membership app. We voted with approval to do it, knowing for 30 years it wasn't in our interest. 

Did we ever think for a minute what the ramifications were of tieing ourselves to an obligation to defend every fledgeling state that signs a treaty to us. Do you have any idea how dangerous that is? How much blood and treasure that incurs? Don't make commitments you don't intend to keep because that is the cross roads we are at. If Lithuania is attacked tomorrow, we face the very real probability of large American metropolises being decimated to the point they'll never be recovered because we decided NATO was important enough it was worth aggravating Russia over. Mean while, if we are attacked, what's Lithuania going to do? Send an infantry battalion and an ambulance team? Ok thanks.....

You realize there is SEATO right? Thats why Aussies, Kiwis and South Koreans were in Vietnam with us.

[kaputt]

5 hours ago, FLEA said:

But I think your solution to all this is to stop waiting and just take the fight to Putin. You just said it. The world has no place for his system. So your solution is to what? Get NATO to just invade Russia and oust him? Man.... Putin certainly doesn't have any security concerns from NATO or the US.....

I haven’t once said that. This whole burst of debate was caused by another poster claiming that the US is at fault because we “expanded NATO to Russia’s door step”, which is such a load of bullshit it’s laughable.

Yeah, yeah, you’ll both follow up with that, “that’s just your western opinion man”. 
 

That’s such a lazy statement and you could literally counter every terrible thing that’s ever happened in the world since the beginning of time with “well the other side saw it this way”.

[BashiChuni]

9 minutes ago, kaputt said:

I haven’t once said that. This whole burst of debate was caused by another poster claiming that the US is at fault because we “expanded NATO to Russia’s door step”, which is such a load of bullshit it’s laughable.

Yeah, yeah, you’ll both follow up with that, “that’s just your western opinion man”. 
 

That’s such a lazy statement and you could literally counter every terrible thing that’s ever happened in the world since the beginning of time with “well the other side saw it this way”.

I’m not saying it. I’m quoting leading US foreign policy statesmen who have been saying it. Reference the twitter thread I posted for names and quotes. 
 

we ignored the warning signs and now act shocked that Putin is acting this way. 

[BashiChuni]

18 minutes ago, kaputt said:

I haven’t once said that. This whole burst of debate was caused by another poster claiming that the US is at fault because we “expanded NATO to Russia’s door step”, which is such a load of bullshit it’s laughable.

Can you elaborate how this is “bull shit”?

im curious how that can be the case when Putin has called NATO expansion eastward to his border “unacceptable”

how in the world is that bullshit? He is fucking telling you plain as day. 
 

Edited March 4, 2022 by BashiChuni

[goingkinetic]

5 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

Can you elaborate how this is “bull shit”?

im curious how that can be the case when Putin has called NATO expansion eastward to his border “unacceptable”

how in the world is that bullshit? He is ing telling you plain as day. 
 

Are we taking orders from Putin? You might as well call your argument the Neville Chamberlain plan.

[Wendell]

21 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

I’m not saying it. I’m quoting leading US foreign policy statesmen who have been saying it. Reference the twitter thread I posted for names and quotes. 
 

we ignored the warning signs and now act shocked that Putin is acting this way. 

“Leading foreign policy statesmen” are a large part of the reason the world is so fked up right now.  Just because they say something doesn’t mean it’s the truth.  It’s worth listening too sure, but it is just an opinion which history shows over and over again they get wrong.  I do know what Putin is doing right now is his own making and is fk’ed up, I don’t need to blame NATO or the US for Putin killing civilians and holding the world hostage with his nuclear weapons. Just because people like to do some circle jerk because they have all sorts of academic degrees doesn’t mean they are any smarter than the rest of the unwashed masses who can use common sense to know something is wrong when they see it.  I am tired of having to think about other countries background when what they are doing is wrong. And again any more dead Russians to post?

Edited March 4, 2022 by Wendell

[kaputt]

12 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

Can you elaborate how this is “bull shit”?

im curious how that can be the case when Putin has called NATO expansion eastward to his border “unacceptable”

how in the world is that bullshit? He is fucking telling you plain as day. 
 

I’ve elaborated multiple times already. Eastward expansion of NATO as a threat to Russia is a Putin derived fantasy tale used to justify his own personal goals and desires for power in the region. It’s clear you believe that story line though.

[BashiChuni]

11 minutes ago, goingkinetic said:

Are we taking orders from Putin? You might as well call your argument the Neville Chamberlain plan.

Not a relevant historical comparison

[BashiChuni]

7 minutes ago, Wendell said:

“Leading foreign policy statesmen” are a large part of the reason the world is so fked up right now.  Just because they say something doesn’t mean it’s the truth.
 

I am tired of having to think about other countries background when what they are doing is wrong. And again any more dead Russians to post?

Agree some “experts” have fucked up the world. The academics I’ve quoted have been warning how to not escalate this tragic situation we find ourselves in. They have not been the ones fucking it up. 
 

your second thought illustrates why our foreign policy as been a dumpster fire. 

[Best-22]

2 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

That is YOUR OPINION. 

do you think Putin shares your western opinion? 
 

“NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders,” Putin complained. NATO expansion “represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?” - Putin 2007

1. Quibbling 

2. Haze yourself.