Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Swizzle]

 

[Lawman]

Man I’d love to look into the parallel universe where a still President Trump overtly says in the media “we are under no obligation to protect Ukraine,” and then punts it to NATO to make the call on any response.

I’m sure that would be totally respected and not met with raging criticism.

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[DirkDiggler]

https://breakingdefense.com/2021/12/what-would-it-take-to-defend-ukraine-potentially-billions-of-dollars/

  Basic article about some COAs concerning a US/NATO military presence and what it would cost

[FLEA]

Since I hasn't been mentioned I think its worth mentioning that we are also in the heart of winter in Europe and Putin controls most of Europe's energy. A strong NATO response could be very traumatic for Europe and I question their readiness for that. 

My experience working with NATO, and my talks with NATO colleagues, is the appetite is very low for intervention right now. 

Putin chose his timing very well. 

[DirkDiggler]

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/12/08/putin_can_take_eastern_ukraine_but_he_wont_like_what_he_gets_806873.html

Good article about some of the challenges Putin would face in a Ukrainian invasion.

[Lawman]

Since I hasn't been mentioned I think its worth mentioning that we are also in the heart of winter in Europe and Putin controls most of Europe's energy. A strong NATO response could be very traumatic for Europe and I question their readiness for that. 
My experience working with NATO, and my talks with NATO colleagues, is the appetite is very low for intervention right now. 
Putin chose his timing very well. 

I have no doubt that is entirely intentional.

Winter favors nobody specifically, but political will dries up real quick when a population can’t make power or heat the houses it’s people live in.


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[Prozac]

3 hours ago, FLEA said:

Since I hasn't been mentioned I think its worth mentioning that we are also in the heart of winter in Europe and Putin controls most of Europe's energy. A strong NATO response could be very traumatic for Europe and I question their readiness for that. 

My experience working with NATO, and my talks with NATO colleagues, is the appetite is very low for intervention right now. 

Putin chose his timing very well. 

Not exactly “most of Europe’s energy”: 

https://www.e-ir.info/2020/02/24/the-energy-relationship-between-russia-and-the-european-union/

A very significant chunk of its natural gas, yes, but Russia is also highly dependent on the revenue that generates. It gets difficult to fund a large occupation force (of the type that would be necessary to secure eastern Ukraine) on a shoestring budget. 

[DirkDiggler]

7 hours ago, Prozac said:

Not exactly “most of Europe’s energy”: 

https://www.e-ir.info/2020/02/24/the-energy-relationship-between-russia-and-the-european-union/

A very significant chunk of its natural gas, yes, but Russia is also highly dependent on the revenue that generates. It gets difficult to fund a large occupation force (of the type that would be necessary to secure eastern Ukraine) on a shoestring budget. 

That was a really good read for an abstract, thanks for posting.

  One of the best guest speakers I've ever listened to was a Ph.D advisor to NDU, she was a specialist on international energy security/politics; she came and spoke to us while I was at JPMEII.  Energy security is a huge part of and a major consideration in most countries' foreign policy; until the EU is able to secure additional energy sources outside of Russian gas Putin will hold some sway over the continent.

Edited December 9, 2021 by DirkDiggler
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[M2]

13 hours ago, Lawman said:

Man I’d love to look into the parallel universe where a still President Trump overtly says in the media “we are under no obligation to protect Ukraine,” and then punts it to NATO to make the call on any response.

I’m sure that would be totally respected and not met with raging criticism.

Thanks for the morning laugh!  That was a good one! 🤣🤣🤣

[FLEA]

14 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

That was a really good read for an abstract, thanks for posting.

  One of the best guest speakers I've ever listened to was a Ph.D advisor to NDU, she was a specialist on international energy security/politics; she came and spoke to us while I was at JPMEII.  Energy security is a huge part of and a major consideration in most countries' foreign policy; until the EU is able to secure additional energy sources outside of Russian gas Putin will hold some sway over the continent.

There's a Naval Post Graduate School professor who is a former KC-135 pilot, he also has a really good lecture on this topic. Wish I could remember his name. 

[Prozac]

12 hours ago, DirkDiggler said:

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/12/08/putin_can_take_eastern_ukraine_but_he_wont_like_what_he_gets_806873.html

Good article about some of the challenges Putin would face in a Ukrainian invasion.

Along a similar vein:

https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/12/expect-shock-and-awe-if-russia-invades-ukraine.html

[HeloDude]

Remember when Ukraine, Obama, NATO, etc all fought Russia in retaliation for invading Ukraine in 2014?  Neither do I…

[Prozac]

8 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Remember when Ukraine, Obama, NATO, etc all fought Russia in retaliation for invading Ukraine in 2014?  Neither do I…

Uhhh, Ukraine has continued to fight Russian backed separatists on a daily basis since the Crimea invasion. They make use of NATO intel, weapons, and other support. They are not a full NATO member, therefore NATO troops were never a likely outcome, nor are/were they expected by the Ukrainians. 

[FLEA]

Some more context to Prozac's remark for those new to NATO;

One of the key requirements of NATO membership is you have to have definite borders with no territorial disputes. When you recognize Russia does not want Ukraine to be a member and that continuous incursions cause territorial disputes, you sort of understand why Russia keeps instigating flare ups. 

Its the same thing with Georgia. 

[waveshaper]

46 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Remember when Ukraine, Obama, NATO, etc all fought Russia in retaliation for invading Ukraine in 2014?  Neither do I…

Yep, I remember all that lethal aid we sent them in 2014/15. Here's a video of them doing some live fire training with all these US provided weapons/rumor was that all the Russian combat troops got a woody after watching this Ukrainian combat training video. 

 

 

[HeloDude]

53 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Uhhh, Ukraine has continued to fight Russian backed separatists on a daily basis since the Crimea invasion. They make use of NATO intel, weapons, and other support. They are not a full NATO member, therefore NATO troops were never a likely outcome, nor are/were they expected by the Ukrainians. 

Uhhh…tell me where I’m wrong?  Russia took control over the Crimea and they did it without firing a shot…so I don’t think Ukraine fought too hard.

As for Ukraine not being part of NATO, was Libya part of NATO?…because I seem to remember them getting involved in that area.

 

[Prozac]

42 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Uhhh…tell me where I’m wrong?  Russia took control over the Crimea and they did it without firing a shot…so I don’t think Ukraine fought too hard.

As for Ukraine not being part of NATO, was Libya part of NATO?…because I seem to remember them getting involved in that area.

 

Here is a little background on Russia’s “annexation” of the Crimean peninsula:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/17/crimea-six-years-after-illegal-annexation/

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to get at. Are you arguing the Ukrainians would accept a full blown Russian invasion because they stayed in garrison when the Russians took over Crimea? I’d posit that a fight for national survival is vastly different than allowing an annexation of a region where Russia already had a large military presence and the chances of winning were essentially zero. Don’t forget that at the same time, Russian backed separatists (and probably actual Russian troops) started what is essentially an insurgency in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian regulars have been fighting that movement pretty vigorously ever since. The Ukrainians most definitely do not want a Russian invasion. 
 

I’ve spent some time in places like Latvia, Lithuania, Georgia, Poland, and other former Soviet states with outlooks similar to Ukraine’s. The people in these places have fresh memories of the oppression that Russian control of their governments brings. The bland, conformist, sprawling blocks of concrete construction that surround the vibrant, historic old towns of cities like Krakow, Riga, and Tbilisi stand as an ominous reminder of that very recent history. The Latvians built an excellent occupation museum in a building where the KGB (and SS before that) used to torture people. These states see a lot of value in the NATO alliance to ensure the Russians never have that kind of control again. In many ways they make far better allies than the Germans, Greeks, or Turks ever could. 
 

If there is a place in the world today where American ideals, values, and support can make a real difference, this is it (Probably along with Taiwan). This is exactly the kind of fight we want to support. Our way, messy as it is, is still the best way and we ought to stand with anyone who subscribes to our ideals in the way much of Eastern Europe recently has. 

[Prozac]

1 hour ago, waveshaper said:

Yep, I remember all that lethal aid we sent them in 2014/15. Here's a video of them doing some live fire training with all these US provided weapons/rumor was that all the Russian combat troops got a woody after watching this Ukrainian combat training video. 

 

 

Yeah, let’s assess their military capabilities and will to fight by some kids having fun in a square……..vs:

Sheesh…..some of you guys should go work for RT. 

Edited December 9, 2021 by Prozac

[JimNtexas]

On 12/8/2021 at 6:25 PM, Lawman said:

Man I’d love to look into the parallel universe where a still President Trump overtly says in the media “we are under no obligation to protect Ukraine,” and then punts it to NATO to make the call on any response.

I’m sure that would be totally respected and not met with raging criticism.

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Trump has been constantly anti-quagmire for years.  It would have been shocking if he suddenly wanted a shooting war with Russia.

 

Of course it is highly unlikely that Putin would be putting on this show if Trump was still President.

[Lawman]

Trump has been constantly anti-quagmire for years.  It would have been shocking if he suddenly wanted a shooting war with Russia.
 
Of course it is highly unlikely that Putin would be putting on this show if Trump was still President.

Trump was routinely calling for (correctly) NATO partner nations to get off their collective asses and use their economic capability to fund a viable military parity to the threat they were all facing…

He was lambasted in the press for that while they stroked themselves off to Justin Trudeau’s wearing socks with the NATO flag on it. The PM of Canada… Canada that NATO partner that still lacks a viable front line fighter to contribute because JT campaigned on canceling F-35, and start a years long delayed fly off competition that might have them still buy F-35s a decade later…. Merkle’s legacy should be leaving the strongest economic power in Europe with a military so devoid of ready capable forces.

You hear zero criticisms of that that kind of thing. But plenty of shade over the last 4 years any time Trump did or said anything about NATO. Now the chips are actually needing to be played, the guy in the seat responsible for our a foreign Policy is punting on decision making to an organization given a free pass at floundering for years, and not a criticism at it from our friends in the media. Yeah… I’m sure Trump would be receiving the same kind of friendly take on saying something along the lines of “it’s NATOs problem to decide.”


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[DirkDiggler]

Not directly related to the current Russia-Ukrainian tensions, but it will be interesting to see if the situation in Kazakhstan effects or influences Russian (really Putin's) decision making with regards to Ukraine.  Russia loathes instability on it's borders, Nazarbayev was solidly in Putin's orbit (one of the last "old school" USSR types besides Lushenko in Belarus), and by all accounts the current instability has caught the Russians off-guard.  If the CTSO "peacekeeping force" employs the standard heavy handed repression the Russians are known for things could get messy there. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/

Edited January 6, 2022 by DirkDiggler
Added link

[DirkDiggler]

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/01/06/putins_calculation_for_war_is_sincere_810817.html

 

  Very good article on Putin's Ukraine calculus.  

[DirkDiggler]

Good article on Putin/Russia's view regarding Russian power, and Ukrainian neutrality.

 

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/01/10/why_neutrality_is_no_answer_for_ukraine_811228.html

[DirkDiggler]

Kinda controversial but interesting article regarding US/European response to Putin's aggression in Ukraine.

 

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/us-must-prepare-war-against-russia-over-ukraine/360639/

[Clark Griswold]

7 hours ago, DirkDiggler said:

Kinda controversial but interesting article regarding US/European response to Putin's aggression in Ukraine.

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/us-must-prepare-war-against-russia-over-ukraine/360639/

Read this a day ago, she's not pulling any punches.  It's time to push back on him.

As to what to do not whether or not to do it, training and equipping Ukrainian forces for guerilla / insurgency replete with the tool and versed in their tactics might give the Russians pause.  Keep the conventional support coming but start getting ready for Red Dawn.  Mines, IEDs, weapons caches, etc..

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/guerrilla-tactics-offer-ukraines-best-chance-against-putins-invasion-force/