Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[FLEA]

21 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

This video is far more than watching a few Russians burn, it represents a paradigm shift in conflict not seen since PGMs in the first Gulf War.  Despite S400s and large numbers of Russian tactical SAMs the UAS' have reigned supreme in this conflict.  Ukraine's use of the Turkish TB2 has been masterful and well within the S400 ring that is supposed to handle low flying targets like cruise missiles.  Additionally, The Ukrainians have used large numbers of smaller systems to scout and provide actionable/targetable intelligence. 

ISIS and some other folks in the Middle East started the trend, rigging mortars to DJ drones and flying them over allied positions.  This video and a host of others out there illustrate how smaller UAS systems can cue Javelin teams and other anti-armor teams and allow them to mass at decisive locations.  In effect they have integrated the air land combined arms team at a much lower and highly effective level.  It appears the Russians have tried to do the same with far less success.  There was report this morning of a Ukrainian woman who knocked out a small Russian drone with...a jar of cucumbers, as it hovered outside her apartment window.

I hope those currently serving and our leadership is taking note, I guarantee others are taking learning this lesson and you can bet there will be even more emphasis on counter UAS capabilities. 

Wonder if our own leadership is watching this before phasing out the MQ-9. The drones Ukraine is using are very comparable arent they? I think they are using the Turkey predator equivalent. 

[viper154]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

Wonder if our own leadership is watching this before phasing out the MQ-9. The drones Ukraine is using are very comparable arent they? I think they are using the Turkey predator equivalent. 

No. 

[FLEA]

26 minutes ago, viper154 said:

No. 

No to......

[TreeA10]

Twitter feed of mostly Russian and come Ukrainian military equipment destroyed or captured. The video of John Deere tractors dragging off T-80s is something I wasn't expecting.  

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/uaweapons?fbclid=IwAR3BlDhCf8vBzxNPmSF3dgpqzo2yjcKr6_VJDDt5Lz-JJhiFRf_hX37oPjY

[FLEA]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-07/antiwar-protests-in-russia-won-t-change-putin-s-mind-about-ukraine

Here's what I was saying about Russian protest not be indicative of Putin's popularity. Also some light discussion on how Russians feel about sanctions on the general population. 

[viper154]

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

No to......

The drones being used in Ukraine compared to something like the -9. I appeared to jump to gun a little bit and while quickly reading your post I think I miss understood your point. On paper a comparison to the -1 seems fair somewhat fair. Compared to the -9 it’s rather inferior. 
 

Without going into to much detail, I would argue something like -9 wouldn’t be the tool for this job. Something smaller, less costly, and with a easier logistic foot print (much like what the Ukrainian military has) is much better suited.

In this war, you want to be mobile with a small foot print, not logistically challenging (fuel, parts, mx, etc) and simple infrastructure (runway requirements, data links, mobile command box)

As with any fixed wing asset, you are going to trade payload, range, and loiter abilities. 

[Lawman]

Twitter feed of mostly Russian and come Ukrainian military equipment destroyed or captured. The video of John Deere tractors dragging off T-80s is something I wasn't expecting.  
 
https://mobile.twitter.com/uaweapons?fbclid=IwAR3BlDhCf8vBzxNPmSF3dgpqzo2yjcKr6_VJDDt5Lz-JJhiFRf_hX37oPjY

I don’t think the Tank crews were either…

*crew comes back from scavenging fuel*
“where the hell is our god damned track!”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FLEA]

33 minutes ago, viper154 said:

The drones being used in Ukraine compared to something like the -9. I appeared to jump to gun a little bit and while quickly reading your post I think I miss understood your point. On paper a comparison to the -1 seems fair somewhat fair. Compared to the -9 it’s rather inferior. 
 

Without going into to much detail, I would argue something like -9 wouldn’t be the tool for this job. Something smaller, less costly, and with a easier logistic foot print (much like what the Ukrainian military has) is much better suited.

In this war, you want to be mobile with a small foot print, not logistically challenging (fuel, parts, mx, etc) and simple infrastructure (runway requirements, data links, mobile command box)

As with any fixed wing asset, you are going to trade payload, range, and loiter abilities. 

All great points. Thanks for your comments! 

[DirkDiggler]

4 hours ago, TreeA10 said:

Twitter feed of mostly Russian and come Ukrainian military equipment destroyed or captured. The video of John Deere tractors dragging off T-80s is something I wasn't expecting.  

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/uaweapons?fbclid=IwAR3BlDhCf8vBzxNPmSF3dgpqzo2yjcKr6_VJDDt5Lz-JJhiFRf_hX37oPjY

 

[hockeydork]

[FLEA]

Anyone else imagine the Jaws theme playing with that lower picture?

[Zero]

I had made the comment in the squadron that the Ukrainians didn't have SEAD... 

...and then I saw the tractors.  

Ukrainian Weasels: "You call, we haul."  

[pawnman]

4 hours ago, Zero said:

I had made the comment in the squadron that the Ukrainians didn't have SEAD... 

...and then I saw the tractors.  

Ukrainian Weasels: "You call, we haul."  

"Stealing Enemy Air Defenses"

[DirkDiggler]

Ukrainian National Guard playing Come to Jesus with some buttoned up Russian crewmen.  Ukrainian rap dub over was a nice touch. 

[DirkDiggler]

TB2 is selling itself at this point.

[DirkDiggler]

Another good video showing Ukrainian forces effectively integrating small UAS to direct accurate indirect fire on a Russian armored convoy.  The Russians bunching up helped quite a bit.

[ecugringo]

Heard that Russian KIA estimates are around 6k.  The commentator said this was almost 50% of losses Russia had in Afghanistan in 10 years of war.  Crazy to think in 2 weeks they are at the half way point and that war was partially claimed as responsible for the end of the USSR.

[viper154]

27 minutes ago, ecugringo said:

Heard that Russian KIA estimates are around 6k.  The commentator said this was almost 50% of losses Russia had in Afghanistan in 10 years of war.  Crazy to think in 2 weeks they are at the half way point and that war was partially claimed as responsible for the end of the USSR.

I would have to imagine if the Russians somehow pull this off the insurgency is going to be much more bloody than Afghanistan. The Ukrainian people have shown they want no part of Russia, and have the backing of pretty much all the Western world. Motivated goat farmers living in mud huts ousted two of the worlds superpowers with basic weapons, IEDs, a limited supply of stingers, and the will/patience to continue to resist. Ukraine people have higher levels of education, advanced weapons, and vast support from the west.  
 

 A puppet government would fall and I don’t see the police/military protecting a puppet government. My opinion, biased by our western media and the twitter videos coming out of Ukraine, the only way to get the people to comply and stop an insurgency would be mass imprisonment and most likely a genocide. 

If Putin withdraws he’s done, if he continues it will only get more bloody, and everyone is walking a fine line trying to avoid WWIII,  it’s a loose/loose/loose situation. 

[Sua Sponte]

https://ddosecrets.substack.com/p/release-roskomnadzor-820-gb?s=r

[ecugringo]

1 hour ago, viper154 said:

I would have to imagine if the Russians somehow pull this off the insurgency is going to be much more bloody than Afghanistan. The Ukrainian people have shown they want no part of Russia, and have the backing of pretty much all the Western world. Motivated goat farmers living in mud huts ousted two of the worlds superpowers with basic weapons, IEDs, a limited supply of stingers, and the will/patience to continue to resist. Ukraine people have higher levels of education, advanced weapons, and vast support from the west.  
 

 A puppet government would fall and I don’t see the police/military protecting a puppet government. My opinion, biased by our western media and the twitter videos coming out of Ukraine, the only way to get the people to comply and stop an insurgency would be mass imprisonment and most likely a genocide. 

If Putin withdraws he’s done, if he continues it will only get more bloody, and everyone is walking a fine line trying to avoid WWIII,  it’s a loose/loose/loose situation. 

Been watching a lot of Peter Zeihan interviews lately, not sure it's good for my health.

If half of his global predictions come true its a pretty scary world.

[VigilanteNav]

On 3/9/2022 at 10:57 AM, FLEA said:

Wonder if our own leadership is watching this before phasing out the MQ-9. The drones Ukraine is using are very comparable arent they? I think they are using the Turkey predator equivalent. 

I'll counter that leadership is watching but still looking ahead to the peer fight (China).  https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/12/09/us-air-force-reveals-two-new-classified-aircraft-programs/?sh=2b0131721256    Although, of course Congress is having their say:  the FY22 NDAA that is about to get enacted (if the omnibus gets signed on Friday) is adding 4xMQ-9s which where not requested by the AF.  As the CSAF is stating these days, there are tough decisions being made as to how to divest the legacy force to free up funding for the force of the future.  Maybe this Ukrainian success with the TB2 highlights a possible way forward with our partners.  NATO and Indo-Pacific partners can add these type of assets to their inventories and capes so we don't have to?        

Edited March 10, 2022 by VigilanteNav

[VigilanteNav]

For those scoring at home, per the March 10 Assessment of the Russian Offensive from the Institute of the Study of War highlights:  "The Ukrainian General Staff claimed that Ukrainian air defenses and fighters shot down four Russian Su-25 aircraft, two helicopters, and two cruise missiles on March 8-9."  and "The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date. There are as yet no indications that the Russian military is reorganizing, reforming, learning lessons, or taking other measures that would lead to a sudden change in the pace or success of its operations, although the numerical disparities between Russia and Ukraine leave open the possibility that Moscow will be able to restore rapid mobility or effective urban warfare to the battlefield."   https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10

[FourFans]

6 hours ago, viper154 said:

it’s a loose/loose/loose situation. 

So, like BQZips mom?

[brickhistory]

On 3/8/2022 at 6:35 PM, Best-22 said:

I know global geopolitics is incredibly difficult, but i also know there is a lot of really smart diplomats and strategists on our side. I choose to believe the west is the one playing 4D chess here. 

https://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2022/03/10/kamala-harris-awkwardly-laughs-while-reminding-polands-president-a-friend-in-need-is-a-friend-indeed/

 

Good luck with that sentiment...

[Prosuper]

7 hours ago, viper154 said:

I would have to imagine if the Russians somehow pull this off the insurgency is going to be much more bloody than Afghanistan. The Ukrainian people have shown they want no part of Russia, and have the backing of pretty much all the Western world. Motivated goat farmers living in mud huts ousted two of the worlds superpowers with basic weapons, IEDs, a limited supply of stingers, and the will/patience to continue to resist. Ukraine people have higher levels of education, advanced weapons, and vast support from the west.  
 

 A puppet government would fall and I don’t see the police/military protecting a puppet government. My opinion, biased by our western media and the twitter videos coming out of Ukraine, the only way to get the people to comply and stop an insurgency would be mass imprisonment and most likely a genocide. 

If Putin withdraws he’s done, if he continues it will only get more bloody, and everyone is walking a fine line trying to avoid WWIII,  it’s a loose/loose/loose situation. 

I'm old enough to remember what happened to the puppet govt that the USSR left in charge in Afghanistan in 1989. Their guy lost in a civil war against the Taliban and got hung, our guy we left in charge read a history book, took the money and ran.