Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[BashiChuni]

30 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

“Just like they stopped with South Ossetia / Georgia and Crimea, amirite? After having secured that territory surely Putin wouldn’t attack other parts of Ukraine, especially not Kiev!”

-Bashi, a very smart man, circa anytime between summer 2008 and February 2022

Man, this has to be one of the clearest “who is bad & the aggressor vs who is good and defending their homeland” situations in my lifetime. If for some reason this war’s waters are muddled at all, you are in a much different place than I am.

Fuck Putin, fuck a new Russian Empire, slava Ukraini, and welcome to NATO Sweden and Finland.

Mil aid to Ukraine has been the most efficient DoD money spent in forever in terms of units of “US security objectives achieved” per dollar.

Ukraine, when you need a reload on HIMARS rounds, holla, we gotcha.

With all due respect who gives a fuck about any of those territories? I don’t. You didn’t January 2022. 

[Prozac]

2 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

With all due respect who gives a fuck about any of those territories? I don’t. You didn’t January 2022. 

You’re missing the forest for the trees. It’s not about the territory. It’s ALL about the idea that there are rules in the modern world and one of those rules is respecting sovereignty. If we throw that out the window, we go back to the biggest, baddest dude on the block takes whatever he wants. If we go back to that, things like global trade and financial systems collapse. That would be devastating for countries like S. Korea, Japan, and Italy and would literally plunge much of the world into poverty and despair. But even if you say “fuck’em, why should I care?” you’d be in for some rude surprises. Think energy prices are high now? That’s cute. Imagine what happens when somebody closes the Straights of Hormuz just because they can. Or: How do you feel about paying $300 for a pair of sneakers once production collapses in S.E. Asia? Or: What happens to your 401K when the European and Asian markets collapse (hint: your money is not insulated from those markets)?
 

So, sure, you could say most Americans couldn’t find Crimea on a map and couldn’t care less about the plight of everyday Ukrainians until six months ago, and, callous and cynical as it is, you’d be mostly right. But it absolutely, positively IS in every American’s best interest to maintain and defend the global order that allows us (and much of the world) to enjoy the highest standard of living we’ve ever known along with the most peaceful era probably in history. 

[nsplayr]

^^ 💯 to all that.

For everyone who’s an anti-globalist, my argument is always that we Americans especially and the world overall are immensely, measurably better off in almost every way in the modern era compared to any historical period. When/where would you rather live compared to post-WWII America?

Paraphrasing a Churchill quote, our global economic and rules-based governance system is the worst one…except all the alternatives we’ve tried!

Edited August 12, 2022 by nsplayr

[BashiChuni]

1 hour ago, Prozac said:

You’re missing the forest for the trees. It’s not about the territory. It’s ALL about the idea that there are rules in the modern world and one of those rules is respecting sovereignty. If we throw that out the window, we go back to the biggest, baddest dude on the block takes whatever he wants. If we go back to that, things like global trade and financial systems collapse. That would be devastating for countries like S. Korea, Japan, and Italy and would literally plunge much of the world into poverty and despair. But even if you say “fuck’em, why should I care?” you’d be in for some rude surprises. Think energy prices are high now? That’s cute. Imagine what happens when somebody closes the Straights of Hormuz just because they can. Or: How do you feel about paying $300 for a pair of sneakers once production collapses in S.E. Asia? Or: What happens to your 401K when the European and Asian markets collapse (hint: your money is not insulated from those markets)?
 

So, sure, you could say most Americans couldn’t find Crimea on a map and couldn’t care less about the plight of everyday Ukrainians until six months ago, and, callous and cynical as it is, you’d be mostly right. But it absolutely, positively IS in every American’s best interest to maintain and defend the global order that allows us (and much of the world) to enjoy the highest standard of living we’ve ever known along with the most peaceful era probably in history. 

again with the "what if" games. we need to go back to TR diplomacy...speak softly and carry a big stick.

we have no interest in ukraine (other than biden and son's corrupt business dealings). ukraine is not a big player on the world stage and they aren't worth us defending them. maybe let the western european nations get spooked and let THEM pay for it.

[busdriver]

Everyone is going to pay for the war in Ukraine.  One way or another.  Goods are traded on an international market.

Ukraine exports global rankings: #5 wheat, #4 corn, #4 iron ore, #1 seed oils, 

Russia is the #1 exporter of fertilizers and wheat,

China is #2 fertilizer exporter and just reduced the max allowable export quota.

Shit is gonna get even more expensive.

[Clark Griswold]

You’re missing the forest for the trees. It’s not about the territory. It’s ALL about the idea that there are rules in the modern world and one of those rules is respecting sovereignty. If we throw that out the window, we go back to the biggest, baddest dude on the block takes whatever he wants. If we go back to that, things like global trade and financial systems collapse. That would be devastating for countries like S. Korea, Japan, and Italy and would literally plunge much of the world into poverty and despair. But even if you say “’em, why should I care?” you’d be in for some rude surprises. Think energy prices are high now? That’s cute. Imagine what happens when somebody closes the Straights of Hormuz just because they can. Or: How do you feel about paying $300 for a pair of sneakers once production collapses in S.E. Asia? Or: What happens to your 401K when the European and Asian markets collapse (hint: your money is not insulated from those markets)?
 
So, sure, you could say most Americans couldn’t find Crimea on a map and couldn’t care less about the plight of everyday Ukrainians until six months ago, and, callous and cynical as it is, you’d be mostly right. But it absolutely, positively IS in every American’s best interest to maintain and defend the global order that allows us (and much of the world) to enjoy the highest standard of living we’ve ever known along with the most peaceful era probably in history. 

^^ to all that.
For everyone who’s an anti-globalist, my argument is always that we Americans especially and the world overall are immensely, measurably better off in almost every way in the modern era compared to any historical period. When/where would you rather live compared to post-WWII America?
Paraphrasing a Churchill quote, our global economic and rules-based governance system is the worst one…except all the alternatives we’ve tried!

The backlash against globalism / internationalism / multi-lateralism and all the other entangling alliances, obligations and other costs with a large part of the American people (and other Western nations) is that it has been done at the cost of the working / middle classes of those countries
All the “great ideas” from the unholy cabal of coastal elites, globalists, the permanent administrative state, corporatists - pointless wars in shitholes, unfair free trade, lax immigration enforcement or de facto open borders, cowing to China to save their investment in that country or to retain access to it, etc… all the negative ramifications of those policies and others are suffered by them but the limited benefits are all funneled to that unholy cabal, all while being told that they deserve it and to stop complaining, that’s why they hate it, hate the rich talking heads that promote it, the purple haired gender studies that extoll it while living in a sheltered subsidized academic bubble…
I can old man rant longer but you get the gist, the neo liberal world that the TED Talk crowd tell us is just around the corner if only open up a bit more is in reality if we screw over everyone except us in our own countries a lot more


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pawnman]

8 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

This same logic got us involved in the Korean, Vietnam, and War on Terror (Iraq specifically). 

“IF WE DONT STOP THE COMMIES IN KOREA/VIETNAM….”

it’s flawed logic. Time to stop “what if-ing” our foreign policy decisions. Play the hand you’re dealt. 
 

and yes Russia would stop at Ukraine. 

What on earth makes you think Russia would stop at Ukraine? 

And do you really think other adversaries aren't watching our response and gauging what they can get away with? 

[nsplayr]

Well then @Clark Griswold you can call me a proof #UnholyCabal member 😇 I grew up and am still middle class and I’ve enjoyed great personal benefits from an American-led western world order.

Capitalism is great, free trade is great, no world wars (and winning the last two!) is great, and both the American working/middle class and especially the world’s population as a whole are significantly better off now than in the pre-WWII era.

Obviously improvements can and should continue to be made and YMMV when there are 6.9 billion data points to consider, but I would not trade living in modern times in a wealthy western-aligned nation for any other time or place in history.

🇺🇸🌐
 

To stay on topic…

Edited August 13, 2022 by nsplayr

[Clark Griswold]

FWIW @nsplayr I don't think you are a member of the #unholycabal, maybe a supporter of what they say that seems appealing but not a per se member, not implying anything negative towards you overtly or subtly.  I guess I'm annoyed at their arrogance and dismissiveness, they're just another decadent corrupt aristocracy fucking over little people while telling them to be grateful while making short sighted decisions that just seem coincidently to make them lots of money.  Done.

I'll just respectfully disagree and we can argue about it again.

To follow your lead and return to the thread's topic:

This was interesting at least to me

https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/amateur-hour-part-ii-failing-the-air-campaign/

[Prozac]

3 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

 

 

The backlash against globalism / internationalism / multi-lateralism and all the other entangling alliances, obligations and other costs with a large part of the American people (and other Western nations) is that it has been done at the cost of the working / middle classes of those countries
All the “great ideas” from the unholy cabal of coastal elites, globalists, the permanent administrative state, corporatists - pointless wars in shitholes, unfair free trade, lax immigration enforcement or de facto open borders, cowing to China to save their investment in that country or to retain access to it, etc… all the negative ramifications of those policies and others are suffered by them but the limited benefits are all funneled to that unholy cabal, all while being told that they deserve it and to stop complaining, that’s why they hate it, hate the rich talking heads that promote it, the purple haired gender studies that extoll it while living in a sheltered subsidized academic bubble…
I can old man rant longer but you get the gist, the neo liberal world that the TED Talk crowd tell us is just around the corner if only open up a bit more is in reality if we screw over everyone except us in our own countries a lot more


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

Look, I get it. Mostly. I think. There is a class of people in the West who feel left behind and forgotten by decision makers who have cast aside their concerns and ignored their plight. I don’t blame them. If I was a coal miner in West Virginia or a steel worker in Pennsylvania or a logger in Oregon I’d probably feel the same way. But this is one of those cases where two things can be true at the same time. Yeah, we did a shitty job taking care of those people & we need to do better. At the same time, a rules based world order has benefited every single American and a good chunk of the rest of the world’s population. No need to throw the baby out with the bath water here. Should we demand better from policymakers? Absofuckin’lutely. Is declaring war against some perceived evil global cabal going to help anyone or come to anything good? Of course not. Let’s shore up the house we’ve built, not burn it down. It’s still got good bones. 

[Random Guy]

4 hours ago, pawnman said:

What on earth makes you think Russia would stop at Ukraine? 

And do you really think other adversaries aren't watching our response and gauging what they can get away with? 

Let's assume that Russia doesn't stop at Ukraine, despite the fact they can barely support ongoing operations, much less project power further (IMO). Regardless, for the sake of argument they are a mighty global military power intent on conquering the EU. 😈

Given that, in what way is the distribution of specialization in violence beneficial to the EU and the US? Generally, there is no meaningful military capability in Europe. There are too many languages for successful operations integration, and the financial system of the the Eurozone can't support increases to military spending (the so-called 'debt-brake' restricts EU state deficit spending at 3% of total spending [GDP] in the past year). The EU is trapped within liberal-imposed austerity, by structural design of the EU itself. The only correcting mechanism they have to protect themselves from financial bubbles is a fund of about €350B. Technically, national central bank purchases of state gov debt are illegal according to the Maastricht treaty itself. Instead of fixing these problems, EU member states join NATO and expect the US to provide 100% of defense capabilities.

Meanwhile, the US economy becomes over-specialized in war and finance. We produce millions of military personnel and trillions of equipment in USD terms, while our spending on things like childcare, family support, certain forms of healthcare* are marginalized by comparison. The 'middle class' @nsplayr refers to doesn't really exist anymore. When we look at the largest components of wealth in the 'middle class', we see home equity (bubble) and pensions (remember, only 11% of private workers today have a pension, so these are mostly gov worker pensions). The bottom 90% of the wealth distribution is composed mostly of gov worker pensions and a housing bubble. 

 

 

So long as NATO exists, the EU has no incentive to properly integrate and increase their defense provision. Europeans literally ignore foreign policy as a concept, and even now, there is little interest within Europe in the conflict in Ukraine. People think it's the US' problem. I would argue this doesn't make much sense. The Europeans should be providing their own defense capabilities, as equals.     

[Clark Griswold]

9 hours ago, Prozac said:

Look, I get it. Mostly. I think. There is a class of people in the West who feel left behind and forgotten by decision makers who have cast aside their concerns and ignored their plight. I don’t blame them. If I was a coal miner in West Virginia or a steel worker in Pennsylvania or a logger in Oregon I’d probably feel the same way. But this is one of those cases where two things can be true at the same time. Yeah, we did a shitty job taking care of those people & we need to do better. At the same time, a rules based world order has benefited every single American and a good chunk of the rest of the world’s population. No need to throw the baby out with the bath water here. Should we demand better from policymakers? Absofuckin’lutely. Is declaring war against some perceived evil global cabal going to help anyone or come to anything good? Of course not. Let’s shore up the house we’ve built, not burn it down. It’s still got good bones. 

Fair enough - I'm not sure the MAGA phenomenon has shaken the stupid from people I think it should but we'll see. 

[Lord Ratner]

On 8/9/2022 at 1:13 PM, BashiChuni said:

How many more BILLIONS are we gonna send our Ukrainian heroes?

Honestly? As long as we're content to spend $850k per unit on "homeless shelters," increase SS for a generation that put much less in than they need, and knew it, spend unlimited money on endless medicalization of obese senior citizens trying to live forever, print a few trillion dollars to prop up the financial system's raping of the American savers and retail investors, and all the other ludicrous things we take on insurmountable government debt to fund, I'm quite happy to spend some magical-fed-bucks on arming a peaceful country that was invaded by one of the three biggest geopolitical threats the free world faces (China, Russia, Iran), while the rest of the neutered world stands by like Neville Chamberlain as the great democratization-of-totalitarian-regimes-through-McDonald's-and-Netflix theory crumbles to dust.

[FourFans]

I move that Random Guy be read-only or flat out blocked from this thread.  As much as we want to hear about his timeshare opportunities and how we should invest in doge coin, this is about the Ukraine war and not his idiotic drivel.  

[FLEA]

4 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

I move that Random Guy be read-only or flat out blocked from this thread.  As much as we want to hear about his timeshare opportunities and how we should invest in doge coin, this is about the Ukraine war and not his idiotic drivel.  

What do you mean? I just reread his last post and it's pretty on topic. It's clear he is thinking from more of an economics perspective but that doesn't discredit it as being unimportant. Economics is an enormously important aspect of war. Just because you don't like his position doesn't mean it lacks relevance. 

[BashiChuni]

22 hours ago, FLEA said:

What do you mean? I just reread his last post and it's pretty on topic. It's clear he is thinking from more of an economics perspective but that doesn't discredit it as being unimportant. Economics is an enormously important aspect of war. Just because you don't like his position doesn't mean it lacks relevance. 

Agreed. 

[ClearedHot]

This is just Fing Epic!!!  Using the website below you can send a donation and Ukrainians will let you be a part of "killing orcs" (Ukrainian slang for the goblin like Russian invaders).  Once you send a donation they will write your message on an artillery shell, make a video as they sling it at the orcs, then send you the video.  As of this morning you can sign an M777 Howitzer, last night it was a T-72 so I am guessing they are rotating around a bit.  Great way to crowd source a military defense.

https://signmyrocket.com/

 

[Clayton Bigsby]

Awhile back you could do the PlaneTags thing and get a keychain from metal from shot down RuAF Su-34s or -35s, etc, but it was realllllll spendy.

Still, what a cause.

[StoleIt]

 

Somebody shooting at somebody over Donbas.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/dogfight-over-ukraine-shows-the-air-war-is-still-very-much-being-fought

[BashiChuni]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/23/us-to-send-3-billion-in-aid-to-ukraine-as-war-hits-6-months-00053318

 

3 billion more to ukraine.

i'd venture to guess we have no fucking clue where that money is going/being spent.

 

what's the goal here? color me skeptical...

[pawnman]

8 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/23/us-to-send-3-billion-in-aid-to-ukraine-as-war-hits-6-months-00053318

 

3 billion more to ukraine.

i'd venture to guess we have no fucking clue where that money is going/being spent.

 

what's the goal here? color me skeptical...

As I already said... this is some of the cheapest and most effective military spending we've ever done. Taking out a near-peer adversary without a single American casualty is a win in my book. 

[Day Man]

16 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/23/us-to-send-3-billion-in-aid-to-ukraine-as-war-hits-6-months-00053318

 

3 billion more to ukraine.

i'd venture to guess we have no fucking clue where that money is going/being spent.

 

what's the goal here? color me skeptical...

🤨

we're not just giving Ukraine $3B...

[BashiChuni]

sorry smells fishy. seems like a money laundering operation on steroids.

after the waste in iraq and afghanistan and the BS they pulled during COVID, our government has lost all trust. time for accountability.

[nsplayr]

5 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

Time for accountability.

This is what the money is spent on, to knee-cap Vlad’s army and defend a free and independent people from unwarranted aggression.

If we can’t even spend money to literally stop Russian tanks from streaming into a European capital, I mean… 

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

[nsplayr]

5 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

seems like a money laundering operation on steroids.

Also…do you know what money laundering actually is?

Can you explain how military aid sent to Ukraine could possible be structured as a way to churn ill-begotten profits from an illegal enterprise through a legitimate business in order for that money to appear “clean” to tax authorities?

Because that’s what money laundering is.

Edited August 24, 2022 by nsplayr