Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[GrndPndr]

Russian oil chief Ravil Maganov dies after ‘hospital fall’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-oil-chief-ravil-maganov-dies-after-hospital-fall-hk0mjw5sb

I hope this is a free link, but wanted to add this little news item here.  I first thought this might be something from a movie...

[FLEA]

7 hours ago, Prozac said:

Ukraine isn’t even close to Afghanistan though. It’s not even close to Iraq, Iran, or any number of third world conflicts where western weaponry has gone unaccounted for. I don’t think Charlie Wilson’s War is a remotely fair comparison here. Ukraine is (or was) basically a first world nation trying to align itself more closely with Europe and the West, not some failed state full of jihadists bent on ousting their infidel oppressors. If they win this thing or even stalemate, Europe ends up with a heavily armed actor on its eastern flank that’s proven it has the will and the ability to counter Russian aggression. This scenario has the potential to be very useful, as a strong non-NATO Ukraine could be an unpredictable wild card for Russian strategists. If they capitulate, well Russia ends up with some HIMARS, Javelins, and (now) HARMs that are most assuredly not our most capable versions of those weapons systems. Bad? Yeah probably, but not nearly the same thing as the Taliban parading around in American armored vehicles or the Islamic Republic of Iran inheriting a readymade Western air force. 

This isn't a good assessment. Ukraine was the worlds largest source for black marketed ammunition and guns shortly after the Cold War. When the SU collapsed Ukraine was Europe's largest standing Army because Russia left them with the Black Sea Fleet as well as several major Army garrisons and a significant nuclear stockpile that they eventually handed back to Moscow. When their economy collapsed, they black marketed a lot of that equipment to the third world. This was only 20 years ago. Ukraine is far from a first world nation. 

That behavior persisted until as recently as 2017. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-arms-insight/ukraine-after-war-becomes-a-trove-for-black-market-arms-trade-idUSKCN1050ZE

I wouldn't classify Ukraine as a first world nation either. Their HDI is high .7's which is good but still significantly lagging the rest of Europe (they are similar to Mexico and Thailand). Only 10 years ago their HDI was where Iraq is today. (High 60s). They made enormous gains largely due to the infusion of western money. They were certainly on their way but I would not really categorize them in the same bin as the US, Japan, Western Europe, etc.... 

[FourFans]

23 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Ukraine was the worlds largest source for black marketed ammunition and guns shortly after the Cold War.

This is at the heart of my concern.  Let's assume best case, and Ukraine restores it's borders and kicks Russia out.  After that, they have to rebuild, which requires money.  Their strongest habit over the past two decades has been to sell whatever they can to whomever will pay.  Why do you think old USSR arms ended up all over Africa, SE Asia and SW Asia?  Fast forward to them funding their reconstruction, regardless how much money is pumped in by the west, the national habit of international arms sales will come right back into full swing.   Not looking forward to the likes of an Al-Shabab armed with Javelins and Stingers.  These things move.  Quickly. 

Imagine the headline of a South American nation having their federal agencies going against stingers and javelins.  Likely?  No.  Possible?  Definitely...and possible should be enough to move the needle...but I don't think it will be.  Like I said: Real leadership is required.

Strong leaders make for peaceful times that create weak men.  Weak leaders make for hard times that create strong men.  Take a guess where we are on that spectrum.

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by FourFans130

[Hugo Stiglitz]

7 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

Let's assume best case, and Ukraine restores it's borders and kicks Russia out.  After that, they have to rebuild, which requires money.

Just a thought, but in that scenario they’ll still have a border to protect and a neighbor with a history of continuing to meddle even after things are “settled.” UKR would be strapped for cash yes, but I’d think they’d have a compelling interest in retaining whatever self defense capability they held. I’m thinking more along the lines of Israel after Nickel Grass.

[ClearedHot]

 

[BashiChuni]

White House asking for 13 billion more for Ukraine. 
 

enough. 

[CaptainMorgan]

White House asking for 13 billion more for Ukraine. 
 
enough. 

Chump change compared to the $240 Billion for student loan relief, and a much better use of tax dollars imho.

Afterthought: student loan relief should only be given for those that travel to Ukraine to assist.


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[BashiChuni]

All of the spending is ridiculous. 
 

it’ll bite our ass someday in the near future…

[Random Guy]

On 8/16/2022 at 4:58 AM, FourFans130 said:

I move that Random Guy be read-only or flat out blocked from this thread.  As much as we want to hear about his timeshare opportunities and how we should invest in doge coin, this is about the Ukraine war and not his idiotic drivel.  

I don't recommend doge coin or time shares. This is financial advice.

[FourFans]

10 minutes ago, Random Guy said:

I don't recommend doge coin or time shares. This is financial advice.

quality save

[gearhog]

The looting continues.

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/02/1120746237/white-house-ukraine-covid-19-monkeypox-supplemental-funding

Quote

For Ukraine, the White House is asking for $11.7 billion, including $7.2 for military-related costs and $4.5 billion for direct economic support.

 

[Day Man]

would you rather that money is spent on developing weapons systems...intended to defeat the russians (among others)? I really don't get the aversion here...

[gearhog]

24 minutes ago, Day Man said:

would you rather that money is spent on developing weapons systems...intended to defeat the russians (among others)? I really don't get the aversion here...

We are playing directly into the hands of the Russian propaganda machine, and people are being taken in by it. This is a war of economic attrition. Russia knows how to live in austerity. We do not. 
 

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1565704584747749382?s=20&t=qRyo0YF9a949j47h5WOFgQ

[nsplayr]

2 hours ago, torqued said:

We are playing directly into the hands of the Russian propaganda machine, and people are being taken in by it. This is a war of economic attrition. Russia knows how to live in austerity. We do not. 
 

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1565704584747749382?s=20&t=qRyo0YF9a949j47h5WOFgQ

If this is a war of economic attrition between Russia and the entirety of NATO...I feel freaking fantastic about winning that one!

Fuck Putin...you can live relatively peacefully in your petrostate dictatorship for the rest of your days if you KIO with all the polonium and invading your neighbors. I sincerely wish better for the Russian people, but that's on them at the end of the day. But the minute he stepped across the border and started murdering innocent people, it becomes our business. It should have been our business in 2008 when Russia unjustly attacked Georgia and we failed on that one.

As has been reiterated many times over, the relatively small amount of money being spent to help the Ukrainians defend their country and bleed out the Russian war machine has got to be the most efficient DoD money pound-for-pound spent since probably 1945.

Edited September 3, 2022 by nsplayr

[gearhog]

29 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

If this is a war of economic attrition between Russia and the entirety of NATO...I feel freaking fantastic about winning that one!

Fuck Putin...you can live relatively peacefully in your petrostate dictatorship for the rest of your days if you KIO with all the polonium and invading your neighbors. I sincerely wish better for the Russian people, but that's on them at the end of the day. But the minute he stepped across the border and starts murdering innocent people, it becomes our business. It should have been our more business in 2008 when Russia unjustly attacked Georgia.

As has been reiterated many times over, the relatively small amount of money being spent to help the Ukrainians defend their country and bleed out the Russian war machine has got to be the most efficient DoD money pound-for-pound spent since probably 1945.

Money is a merely claim on future energy. It’s finite. Who is producing it, and who requires it?

if you think this is about helping those poor Ukrainians defend their homeland, it’s a bit naïve. Thucydides trap.

https://amp.dw.com/en/nord-stream-1-russias-gazprom-announces-indefinite-shutdown-of-pipeline/a-63006660

Recently spent the day at the WWI museum. This gave me pause for thought. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by torqued

[Day Man]

1 hour ago, torqued said:

We are playing directly into the hands of the Russian propaganda machine, and people are being taken in by it. This is a war of economic attrition. Russia knows how to live in austerity. We do not. 
 

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1565704584747749382?s=20&t=qRyo0YF9a949j47h5WOFgQ

let me get this straight...

you claim we're being taken in by the russian propaganda machine, then post a video of putin as your source? 

[Danger41]

I don’t dabble into these political threads at all because I don’t have the willpower that some of you do, but I will say this.

1. Jackson, MS doesn’t have water to fight fires let alone flush toilets or drink.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/09/01/jackson-mississippi-water-crisis/
 

2. The US has contributed more than the entire European Union + the UK to Ukraine. 
Over $10 billion of which has been ear marked purely as “humanitarian aid”.

I’ll agree that in terms of bang for the buck with weakening a strategic competitor that this is money well spent. I will vehemently and vociferously oppose the view that that is more important than Americans not having fucking water to drink. 

[nsplayr]

[Grabby]

1 hour ago, nsplayr said:

$30.8 Trillion of national debt?

[pawnman]

6 hours ago, Danger41 said:

I don’t dabble into these political threads at all because I don’t have the willpower that some of you do, but I will say this.

1. Jackson, MS doesn’t have water to fight fires let alone flush toilets or drink.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/09/01/jackson-mississippi-water-crisis/
 

2. The US has contributed more than the entire European Union + the UK to Ukraine. 
Over $10 billion of which has been ear marked purely as “humanitarian aid”.

I’ll agree that in terms of bang for the buck with weakening a strategic competitor that this is money well spent. I will vehemently and vociferously oppose the view that that is more important than Americans not having fucking water to drink. 

So your assertion is that if we just let Russia take over their neighbors... Missouri would have water? 

[gearhog]

6 hours ago, Day Man said:

let me get this straight...

you claim we're being taken in by the russian propaganda machine, then post a video of putin as your source? 

That's not what I typed.

"We're" playing into the hands of the Russian propaganda machine. We have a declining GDP, yet our expenditures are massively increasing. The only way that can occur is through money creation. We are now in a period of continuous emergency spending while our production of goods, services, and energy falls and consumption rises. We may be among the last to experience massive social unrest, but poorer countries are beginning to fail because their currency, pegged to the US dollar, can no longer compete on the global market. Once these new dollars are out there circulating, that bell doesn't get unrung.

Enter Putin and Russian propaganda. Unless you're paying attention, you won't see the large protests happening in Sri lanka, Guatemala, South Africa, Sierra Leone, Haiti, Bangladesh, Turkey, Argentina, even Britain and on and on... all over the cost of living. They're all looking for someone to blame. Chaos yields opportunity, and Russia is attempting to seize upon it. The BRICS nations are going to offer alternatives to the US dollar. Russia just shut off the last remaining Gazprom pipeline to Europe yesterday. Why would they cut off a revenue stream in the middle of a war? Because they know it creates emergency spending, then inflation, then social unrest.

I posted a video of the man himself, delivering his propaganda, to people who will be compelled by it. Isn't it important to know what we're up against? While he may correctly assess the problems (as we all can), I personally believe his solutions are fucking horrendous, but desperate people and governments we be willing to try anything.

 

[Lord Ratner]

18 hours ago, Random Guy said:

I don't recommend doge coin or time shares. This is financial advice.

Hang on buddy, you're not acting as a good fiduciary.

 

Timeshares can be an excellent purchase during a recession, since if you're patient, you'll probably find someone to pay you to take it 🤣😂

[Lord Ratner]

11 hours ago, torqued said:

We are playing directly into the hands of the Russian propaganda machine, and people are being taken in by it. This is a war of economic attrition. Russia knows how to live in austerity. We do not. 
 

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1565704584747749382?s=20&t=qRyo0YF9a949j47h5WOFgQ

Nonsense. What we are spending in Ukraine is budget dust compared to the domestic expenses that have put us well beyond the point of recovery.

The money sent to Ukraine probably has the highest rate of achieving its intended purpose of all government spending in the last 30 years.

 

[nsplayr]

The US dollar is stronger than ever, economically we have weathered the COVID storm better than Russia, China and Europe, our population is growing without any latent time bombs (cough cough China), and Russia is taking (for us) unimaginable, catastrophic combat losses in Ukraine with little to show for it.

Europe is painfully now realizing relying on Russian gas was always a bad idea and is switching to both US LNG imports, renewables, and at least holding steady on nuclear rather than closing plants. They will make it through.

I’d rather be no one else on the global stage right now and there’s no more viable economic model than US-led western-style capitalism. We have the strongest economic outlook and by far the strongest military, especially considering who we have as allies.

Putin can crash his fading, overestimated military against the hard rocks of Ukraine for as long as he’d like and cling to the last drips of oil and gas as the rest of the world passes him by.

Whenever the Russian people have had enough and want a piece of the long-term prosperity available to them by properly joining the global economy (like their neighbors in the Baltic states and Eastern Europe have more or less done), I welcome them. Let Vlad have an “unfortunate fall from a high window” and let’s be done with him.

Edited September 3, 2022 by nsplayr

[RASH]

So your assertion is that if we just let Russia take over their neighbors... Missouri would have water? 

Mississippi…


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