Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Clark Griswold]

7 hours ago, Prozac said:

Is there an acronym for that? Dude, I get lack of trust. I was a First Lieutenant when the WMD claims we’re made & altered the course of our careers forever. But going full “global cabal” is a bit much. Additionally there are many (not necessarily directed at you) who seem to want to see the Biden admin fail no matter the cost to our nation, hence the rampant defamation of virtually every American institution imaginable.

WRT to this particular issue, Putin has indeed surrounded Ukraine with an invasion force. He has used cyberattacks, information warfare, fake media reports, false flag operations, and countless other non traditional warfare tactics in the past in places like Georgia, Lithuania, and Ukraine. It follows that he is prepared to use similar methods ahead of and in conjunction with any possible conventional attack. Further…..and this is important……no one in our government is attempting to use this intel as a pretext for American military action. It has been stated countless times that American combat actions are off the table. We have been candid with the Ukrainians and they have stated they do not expect American or NATO troops to fight on their behalf. Our State Department is revealing portions of intelligence in an effort to head Putin off at the pass and avoid a war altogether. I find it difficult to understand why that is a position that is so hard to support and why so many Americans continue to insist on selling our nation’s institutions down the river. They may be flawed, but I’ll take CIA over Putin’s FSB ten out of ten times. When did that become a controversial opinion?

You and I are probably about the same age, I remember the WMD speeches and promises, I thought Hussein had to have them and that the invasion of 03 was the right thing, the only thing to do.  Time has educated me on the hubris of our leaders, their basic human flaws that have enormous consequences when amplified thru their official decisions and that we should not be too cautious acting on the world stage but very realistic 

I'm torn, I think "they" who I don't have a pithy acronym for are not being fully honest about the situation, they have other motives at work (wag the dog, MIC scheming, Ukraine colluding with Bidens, insert other conspiracy sounding idea here, etc..) but there is the real threat forming across the border and if the Russians attack and win, our credibility gets a kick in the balls and the current liberal rules based international order takes another hit.  I rationalize it and think even though "they" are lying hypocrites who don't really deserve our respect and political power, they have it and the situation is still there to be addressed with Ukraine / Russia.  

Our institutions are much less than they used to be, but they are ours, I don't exactly trust them but follow them because there is no alternative.  No love, just practicality.

They may not want or say they don't want US forces in theater (assuming hostilities erupt) but methinks we would have to become directly involved to prevent total collapse.

@FLEA @DirkDiggler 

Your welcome, they were great insights from Germans into their psychology and issues with being a powerful country dealing with cultural / historical issues.  

[FLEA]

9 hours ago, Prozac said:

Is there an acronym for that? Dude, I get lack of trust. I was a First Lieutenant when the WMD claims we’re made & altered the course of our careers forever. But going full “global cabal” is a bit much. Additionally there are many (not necessarily directed at you) who seem to want to see the Biden admin fail no matter the cost to our nation, hence the rampant defamation of virtually every American institution imaginable.
 

WRT to this particular issue, Putin has indeed surrounded Ukraine with an invasion force. He has used cyberattacks, information warfare, fake media reports, false flag operations, and countless other non traditional warfare tactics in the past in places like Georgia, Lithuania, and Ukraine. It follows that he is prepared to use similar methods ahead of and in conjunction with any possible conventional attack. Further…..and this is important……no one in our government is attempting to use this intel as a pretext for American military action. It has been stated countless times that American combat actions are off the table. We have been candid with the Ukrainians and they have stated they do not expect American or NATO troops to fight on their behalf. Our State Department is revealing portions of intelligence in an effort to head Putin off at the pass and avoid a war altogether. I find it difficult to understand why that is a position that is so hard to support and why so many Americans continue to insist on selling our nation’s institutions down the river. They may be flawed, but I’ll take CIA over Putin’s FSB ten out of ten times. When did that become a controversial opinion?

Prozac, when people talk about the deep state they aren't discussing global cabal or conspiracy. That is something the democrats inferred was meant. 

Most people referring to the deep state are discussing endemic incompetence, cognitive biases and massive group think to uphold a status quo that is no longer healthy for our country. It is the enormous momentum behind government employees who can not or will not understand that the administration is trying to change direction and so they press on what they were doing with complete disregard for the national strategy. 

 

[Prozac]

12 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

Read these two articles from WOR related to your point on Europe / Germany specifically:

A MILLENNIAL CONSIDERS THE NEW GERMAN PROBLEM AFTER 30 YEARS OF PEACE

WHY GERMANY BEHAVES THE WAY IT DOES

Interesting reads.  I thought Franke was a bit repetitive but he brings up some good points, many of which could also be applied to a lot of younger people in the United States.  I don't think its fair to demonize these people for having developed these viewpoints.  It is human nature to become comfortable with the status quo.  Rather, we should focus on educating young people on how fast things can change and why it's important to be prepared for many contingencies, no matter how unlikely they seem.  Another factor in Germans' opinions on geopolitics is simply the recency of their experience with horrific conflict.  There are people in Germany who remember when virtually every city was burned and leveled.  That's not an experience many societies have had.  Now add the fact that we are currently talking about Russia, where Germany did NOT have a good experience even in the context of total global war and it shouldn't come as any big surprise that they are hesitant to poke the bear.  One final note: While we bemoan Germany's seemingly lackluster commitment to security It's important to remember that, in addition to all of the previous reasoning, we also played an enormous role in beating the nationalism and militarism out of them after the war.  There is a reason the Germans and the Japanese are currently amongst the most pacifist populations on the planet.  

Final, FINAL note: Regardless of the history, I still personally believe we should be pushing Germany to shoulder more of the NATO defense burden.

[tac airlifter]

11 hours ago, Prozac said:

The US government is not going to divulge sources and methods when it comes to intelligence gathering. It never has and it never will. 

Well that’s just not true: Once reporters published a report on CURVEBALL the Bush administration released intelligence validating his role.  True, many aspects of this remain classified to protect aspects of the intelligence apparatus, which makes sense.  But it turns out you can release enough information about “sources and methods” to allow critical thought on the conclusions.  

For those who don’t know, intel from CURVEBALL was key in domestic legitimacy of the Iraq war and it was all made up by a guy who wanted us to start the Iraq war.  Of note, German intel  said exactly that and we all told them to shut up.  Consider what a total disaster the Iraq war was for our nation.  Think about how much it hurt international credibility, think about how Afghanistan could have been different had we focused there instead of had our bandwidth absorbed by Iraq, consider the rise of Isis, all the people killed there since 03.  The magnitude of the terrible strategic decision to invade Iraq in 2003 using false assumptions about their WMD threat is almost incalculable.  It was an intel fuck up of colossal proportions.  And it could have been avoided had we exposed our sources and methods earlier…. because we ended up exposing them anyway.
 

You are a smart dude but if you start with a false assumption you’ll arrive at a wrong conclusion.  You assume the government never exposes sources and methods then follow that logic train to a place where society must remain ignorant of facts & trust experts running this process who are insulated from the consequences of their actions.  False. That isn’t true and it doesn’t work.  
 

Fun and relevant Thomas Sowell quote: It’s hard to imagine a more stupid or dangerous way to make decisions than leaving them to people who suffer no consequence for the results.

Stop trusting people who aren’t accountable.  The experts have lied and been wrong in the recent past.  Before we order my kids to war (which is possible despite your protestations) I want some public QC on the intel.  

[Clark Griswold]

5 hours ago, Prozac said:

Interesting reads.  I thought Franke was a bit repetitive but he brings up some good points, many of which could also be applied to a lot of younger people in the United States.  I don't think its fair to demonize these people for having developed these viewpoints.  It is human nature to become comfortable with the status quo.  Rather, we should focus on educating young people on how fast things can change and why it's important to be prepared for many contingencies, no matter how unlikely they seem.  Another factor in Germans' opinions on geopolitics is simply the recency of their experience with horrific conflict.  There are people in Germany who remember when virtually every city was burned and leveled.  That's not an experience many societies have had.  Now add the fact that we are currently talking about Russia, where Germany did NOT have a good experience even in the context of total global war and it shouldn't come as any big surprise that they are hesitant to poke the bear.  One final note: While we bemoan Germany's seemingly lackluster commitment to security It's important to remember that, in addition to all of the previous reasoning, we also played an enormous role in beating the nationalism and militarism out of them after the war.  There is a reason the Germans and the Japanese are currently amongst the most pacifist populations on the planet.  

Final, FINAL note: Regardless of the history, I still personally believe we should be pushing Germany to shoulder more of the NATO defense burden.

Cool - let's call it here.  Points made and all good.

[ClearedHot]

13 hours ago, Prozac said:

The US government is not going to divulge sources and methods when it comes to intelligence gathering. It never has and it never will. I would think the reasons for that would be obvious to almost everyone on this forum. The “proof” will be when Putin makes his moves & the world sees his shenanigans for what they are. Help me understand your concerns: Is it your belief that the US is secretly planning on committing troops to the fight for Ukraine? If that were the case, I would expect to be seeing large scale mobilizations going on yesterday. Eight thousand troops to Poland is nothing more than a symbolic gesture of our commitment to NATO. 

Brother...you have not been paying attention.  The Biden administration has actually made this a strategy...THEIR Strategy.  I am NOT trying to be flippant on a web forum.  I would invite you to read a paper that came out of CSBA called Deterrence by Detection.  It did not get a lot of traction under Trump but for some reason Biden's folks have latched on to it.  Very long story short, this paper was published in 2020 and on the surface is operational concept to put a large network of long endurance RPAs in key areas to watch China and Russia, then use the constant flow of information and intel to shape our adversaries in public.

Think back to our withdrawal form Afghanistan and how they answered questions about continuing the fight and how it would impact our ability to fight.  The answer was "over the horizon".  The Ivy League mushmellows in the BIden administration shaping DoD policy have decided this concept is the answer to all our problems and they are FUNDING it as a strategy (there is an RFI on the street right now).  A couple of key statements that show how they are building the case.

“Deterrence by detection,” based upon the idea that our adversaries are less likely to commit opportunistic acts of aggres-sion if they know they are being watched constantly and that their actions can be publicized widely."

Follow on DoD and policy articles have referenced the strategy, they believe they can and I quote "SHAME" Putin and Xi Jinping into stopping a certain behavior.  Another thought piece went as far as to say that using this approach we could cohere China and Russia in to "cow to our demands"

They point to the U.S. releasing sources and methods in the past to achieve these effect.  in the 60's the U. S. government publicly released highly classified U-2 reconnaissance photographs to demonstrate that the Russians had missiles in Cuba.  They reference Colin Powell presenting pictures and voice intercepts of the Iraqis talking about mobile WMD labs leading up to Gulf War II.  The also discuss the United States releasing satellite and other intel on Iran...nuke facilities and actions on the oil platforms.

My assessment and just an opinion, they are taking a risk averse tactical view and are willing to disclose sources, methods and technology to achieve political goals that are probably unachievable as our top two adversaries are not as vulnerable to the press as a free nation like America is.  If you listen closely we are already signalling we know what Putin is doing with a false flag operation and a video.  We likely have the video and they are trying to get the word out...will it stop Putin?

 

[Prozac]

5 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

Well that’s just not true: Once reporters published a report on CURVEBALL the Bush administration released intelligence validating his role.  True, many aspects of this remain classified to protect aspects of the intelligence apparatus, which makes sense.  But it turns out you can release enough information about “sources and methods” to allow critical thought on the conclusions.  

For those who don’t know, intel from CURVEBALL was key in domestic legitimacy of the Iraq war and it was all made up by a guy who wanted us to start the Iraq war.  Of note, German intel  said exactly that and we all told them to shut up.  Consider what a total disaster the Iraq war was for our nation.  Think about how much it hurt international credibility, think about how Afghanistan could have been different had we focused there instead of had our bandwidth absorbed by Iraq, consider the rise of Isis, all the people killed there since 03.  The magnitude of the terrible strategic decision to invade Iraq in 2003 using false assumptions about their WMD threat is almost incalculable.  It was an intel fuck up of colossal proportions.  And it could have been avoided had we exposed our sources and methods earlier…. because we ended up exposing them anyway.
 

You are a smart dude but if you start with a false assumption you’ll arrive at a wrong conclusion.  You assume the government never exposes sources and methods then follow that logic train to a place where society must remain ignorant of facts & trust experts running this process who are insulated from the consequences of their actions.  False. That isn’t true and it doesn’t work.  
 

Fun and relevant Thomas Sowell quote: It’s hard to imagine a more stupid or dangerous way to make decisions than leaving them to people who suffer no consequence for the results.

Stop trusting people who aren’t accountable.  The experts have lied and been wrong in the recent past.  Before we order my kids to war (which is possible despite your protestations) I want some public QC on the intel.  

Ok fine. I should’ve said the US government doesn’t TYPICALLY divulge sources & methods. Better? I’m still confused at what your overall concern is. You’ve stated that you want hard information prior to committing blood and treasure. But we’re not exactly talking about blood and treasure here. It is accepted that, if he wants to, Putin can waltz into Kiev in as little as 48 hrs. We, along with NATO would like do discredit HIS methods before he implements them and deter the whole thing because that’s one way a free Ukraine survives. Is that so hard to get behind? Or are you worried that we are sullying Putin’s image by releasing potentially false intel about his intentions? 

[Swizzle]

3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Brother...you have not been paying attention.  The Biden administration has actually made this a strategy...THEIR Strategy.  I am NOT trying to be flippant on a web forum.  I would invite you to read a paper that came out of CSBA called Deterrence by Detection.  It did not get a lot of traction under Trump but for some reason Biden's folks have latched on to it.  Very long story short, this paper was published in 2020 and on the surface is operational concept to put a large network of long endurance RPAs in key areas to watch China and Russia, then use the constant flow of information and intel to shape our adversaries in public.

 

Think back to our withdrawal form Afghanistan and how they answered questions about continuing the fight and how it would impact our ability to fight.  The answer was "over the horizon".  The Ivy League mushmellows in the BIden administration shaping DoD policy have decided this concept is the answer to all our problems and they are FUNDING it as a strategy (there is an RFI on the street right now).  A couple of key statements that show how they are building the case.

 

“Deterrence by detection,” based upon the idea that our adversaries are less likely to commit opportunistic acts of aggres-sion if they know they are being watched constantly and that their actions can be publicized widely."

 

Follow on DoD and policy articles have referenced the strategy, they believe they can and I quote "SHAME" Putin and Xi Jinping into stopping a certain behavior.  Another thought piece went as far as to say that using this approach we could cohere China and Russia in to "cow to our demands"

 

They point to the U.S. releasing sources and methods in the past to achieve these effect.  in the 60's the U. S. government publicly released highly classified U-2 reconnaissance photographs to demonstrate that the Russians had missiles in Cuba.  They reference Colin Powell presenting pictures and voice intercepts of the Iraqis talking about mobile WMD labs leading up to Gulf War II.  The also discuss the United States releasing satellite and other intel on Iran...nuke facilities and actions on the oil platforms.

My assessment and just an opinion, they are taking a risk averse tactical view and are willing to disclose sources, methods and technology to achieve political goals that are probably unachievable as our top two adversaries are not as vulnerable to the press as a free nation like America is.  If you listen closely we are already signalling we know what Putin is doing with a false flag operation and a video.  We likely have the video and they are trying to get the word out...will it stop Putin?

 

Makes me think of siblings and balance of power between them/alternatives or lack thereof, however instead of kids think countries. This strategy is akin to the tattle-tale. Parents would be the world-stage/international forum (UN, NATO. Etc.). How often does this strategy work, and whom will the world's forum believe? Act upon?

It's also akin to strength of positioning, how often is the tattle-tale in the weaker position? I know the answer with my kids.

[ClearedHot]

Conflict seems inevitable at this point.  A few minutes ago the White House advised all Americans to leave Ukraine within the next 24-48 hours.  There are approximately 32,000 Americans in Ukraine (7,000 registered and estimated 25,000 unregistered).  The White House announced there will be no evacuation once hostilities commence.  Biden said if any Americans are harmed that would be a red line...this is going to get ugly.

[SurelySerious]

https:// https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-to-invade-ukraine-next-week-according-to-u-s-officials

I’m just glad that if we did set that “any US people get hurt” red line, no one believes we’ll enforce a red line.

[Bigred]

What's the over/under that things get busy on 16 Feb? 

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/krise-in-osteuropa-cia-rechnet-mit-russischem-angriff-kommende-woche-a-2e10a45f-b6eb-4b1a-b692-2edc64c04adf

[SurelySerious]

What's the over/under that things get busy on 16 Feb? 
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/krise-in-osteuropa-cia-rechnet-mit-russischem-angriff-kommende-woche-a-2e10a45f-b6eb-4b1a-b692-2edc64c04adf

I was going for just after Olympics closing ceremonies, but interesting if he has the balls to do it during the games.

[Swizzle]

Just now, SurelySerious said:

I was going for just after Olympics closing ceremonies, but interesting if he has the balls to do it during the games.

Same thought here. Thought it wasn't a coincidence that games end 20 Feb and their naval exercise "ends" the same time. 

[Clark Griswold]

Gotta get things going before the ground thaws and the roads/fields turn to mud
Blitzkreig works only if the infrastructure/conditions support rapid movements to punch thru and outflank


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[afthunderchief16]

1 hour ago, Clark Griswold said:

Gotta get things going before the ground thaws and the roads/fields turn to mud
Blitzkreig works only if the infrastructure/conditions support rapid movements to punch thru and outflank


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Does this mean the groundhog saw his shadow or not?

 

[Clark Griswold]

Does this mean the groundhog saw his shadow or not?
 

Ha - means better conditions for a defense
I’m not saying an invasion would a traditional armored column thrust then dismounted infantry ala a WW2 type fight but… some of it would be similar to that

More mud is better and better for Ukraine
Any infrastructure they have that would enable rapid movement should be ready for immediate self demolition and anything to bog down the aggressor


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[Lawman]

Does this mean the groundhog saw his shadow or not?
 

Anybody trying to use this as some sort of example of inept actions or unsuitable conditions for invasion have never worked with tanks.

Go to any field problem any time of year at any US Army installation with tanks… you’ll find them stuck in shit you can’t imagine.

Nothing gets stuck like a tank.


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[ViperMan]

I would like to take a moment to note that NBC, this morning, is choosing to carry coverage of curling and ski-jumping on fake snow instead of covering the pending war that's about to break out in Europe.

To be sure, Chuck Todd is a complete tool, but for one of the networks (and anchors) that couldn't stop squawking about Russia for four long years, you would think that this story would be right up their alley. Instead, they are making a conscientious choice to cater to their funding stream to serve advertisements to us in lieu of informing the public about the most consequential foreign disaster since Vietnam or maybe even Korea or WWII.

At least on CBS I can witness Jake Sullivan stating for a second time in only a few months that "Americans should go ahead and evacuate themselves from harms way." What a great look. Here's a story about Russia and China using the Olympics as a platform to "partner up" against the West. And no one finds it odd that NBC is airing this event instead of putting Putin on "blast"?? Who's side is NBC on again??? JTFC.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-china-tell-nato-stop-expansion-moscow-backs-beijing-taiwan-2022-02-04/

Edited February 13, 2022 by ViperMan

[Clark Griswold]

Watched This Week on ABC, Pelosi was on and spoke a bit about it but it was not confidence inspiring
Last guest was a Nixon aide talking about the 50th anniversary of Watergate and serving for Nixon. He commented on the historical symmetry to a degree of Putin and Xi at the Olympics together with Nixon’s China visit but Biden nowhere near it, kinda ominous

[ViperMan]

@Clark Griswold this one?

I've never been impressed with her or Stephanopoulos. But I'm not sure what I find more concerning, what she said or the fact that very little besides her jaw moves anymore...too much plastic. Way too much.

[Clark Griswold]

[mention=20373]Clark Griswold[/mention] this one?
I've never been impressed with her or Stephanopoulos. But I'm not sure what I find more concerning, what she said or the fact that very little besides her jaw moves anymore...too much plastic. Way too much.

Yup - she’s getting up in her years and injecting poison into your face to tighten it up on a regular basis probably doesn’t help either
Her cognitive decline is mild but detectable, for various reasons the Dems have not swapped out their players on the field but scary as some of the ones on the bench waiting to get put in the game are to me it’s time for them to take they’re places, right or left, if you are 75 or older you don’t need to be in the seat and at least you need to be setting up for your graceful departure


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[Bigred]

3 hours ago, ViperMan said:

I would like to take a moment to note that NBC, this morning, is choosing to carry coverage of curling and ski-jumping on fake snow instead of covering the pending war that's about to break out in Europe.

To be sure, Chuck Todd is a complete tool, but for one of the networks (and anchors) that couldn't stop squawking about Russia for four long years, you would think that this story would be right up their alley. Instead, they are making a conscientious choice to cater to their funding stream to serve advertisements to us in lieu of informing the public about the most consequential foreign disaster since Vietnam or maybe even Korea or WWII.

At least on CBS I can witness Jake Sullivan stating for a second time in only a few months that "Americans should go ahead and evacuate themselves from harms way." What a great look. Here's a story about Russia and China using the Olympics as a platform to "partner up" against the West. And no one finds it odd that NBC is airing this event instead of putting Putin on "blast"?? Who's side is NBC on again??? JTFC.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-china-tell-nato-stop-expansion-moscow-backs-beijing-taiwan-2022-02-04/

What I find interesting is that the squawking about Ukraine from outside of Ukraine is significantly higher than that from inside of Ukraine. If you have access to an 14F in your area, they can do some of their IO stuff on open source data to show you what I mean. 

[DirkDiggler]

Why any adult with critical thinking skills uses any talking head cable or network news show as a primary source of information and/or news is beyond me.

[Prozac]

5 hours ago, ViperMan said:

 

I would like to take a moment to note that NBC, this morning, is choosing to carry coverage of curling and ski-jumping on fake snow instead of covering the pending war that's about to break out in Europe.

 

I’m sure NBC does not wish to imperil it’s broadcast rights right in the middle of the Olympics. IMO, we should’ve had a total boycott. 

[waveshaper]

The State Department sure has some screwed up/ass-backward priorities that will complicate/slow the emergency ground evac of US Citizen trying to get the heck out of Dodge (Press Release/Source=State Department/US Embassy in Ukraine). 

'Message to U.S. Citizens: Poland/Ukraine Border Open to U.S. Citizens:'

'U.S. citizens must present proof of COVID-19 vaccination.  Travelers are also encouraged to present a negative test result from a PCR or antigen COVID-19 test, which will facilitate entry into Poland.' etc, etc, etc.

Message to U.S. Citizens: Poland/Ukraine Border Open to U.S. Citizens - U.S. Embassy in Ukraine (usembassy.gov)