Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[ClearedHot]

On 11/11/2022 at 7:43 AM, Clark Griswold said:

Reprise of the Interceptor?  Good article on MiG-31s in Ukraine with interesting links

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russias-mig-31-foxhounds-proving-to-be-a-threat-to-ukrainian-aircraft

 

What is the F-Pole at 60,000' and Mach 2 slinging an ICBM like A2A missile?

[Clark Griswold]

57 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

What is the F-Pole at 60,000' and Mach 2 slinging an ICBM like A2A missile?

Drop that telephone pole, count 2 Mississippi then maneuver I imagine... non-fighter pilot's opinion but the long range interceptor with a VLRAAM will be able to shape the fight by first look / shot if they enter the ring off the top rope coming down on a 4th gen opponent, 5th gen would be different due to less SA till the players are closer and the interceptors get a radar hit they can use

Just a DCS video of a 2 ship of 31s vs a 2 ship of Vipers... but being put on the defensive first as you close on the Foxhounds looks like a problem... again just a DCS video without all the other support assets that would assist this Viper two ship but to illustrate the problem of not getting the first shot

 

[Lord Ratner]

11 hours ago, brwwg&b said:

I know that you don't know who you are talking to. I also know that intelligence support isn't a discussion fit for this forum.

Maybe you forgot your previous post?

Here:

On 11/12/2022 at 9:05 PM, brwwg&b said:

They were reliant on western supplied equipment and munitions.

And here:

On 11/12/2022 at 9:05 PM, brwwg&b said:

If we stopped handing over equipment and munitions today - it isn't a guarantee that the Ukrainians would lose (in the near term).

And now here:

11 hours ago, brwwg&b said:

The difference here being that we aren't going to go take back equipment or munitions which was gifted, if they decide they no longer need supervision

That's who I'm talking to, the person who said that. And those quotes indicate a very misguided belief that "equipment and munitions" are the primary factors in Ukraine's success. Yet you completely ignored "training and intelligence," which can be thought of as multipliers in this conflict. No, we can't easily take back our equipment and munitions, but if we take the Intel and support, you're now multiplying by zero, and the result will be obvious.

 

So you either don't know what you're talking about, or you're trying to exclude the "secret" parts by completely mis-characterizing the entire ground reality, which seems like a pointless endeavor.

 

I hope our support for Ukraine continues until the last Russian body is dragged back over their border. We have been given a tremendous opportunity to utterly decimate, the military and standing of one of the only credible geopolitical foes, and at an incredible discount. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight and die for their sovereignty, I see no problem with simultaneously fulfilling a major objective of ours.

But that doesn't change Ukraine's reality, and there is no victory without our continued support. The United States military is not the training wheels, it's the whole f'n bike.

 

[brwwg&b]

30 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

if we take the Intel and support, you're now multiplying by zero, and the result will be obvious.

You're asserting that Ukrainian military competency and capability (on their own) is zero. Which is blatantly incorrect.

31 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

I hope our support for Ukraine continues until the last Russian body is dragged back over their border. We have been given a tremendous opportunity to utterly decimate, the military and standing of one of the only credible geopolitical foes, and at an incredible discount. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight and die for their sovereignty, I see no problem with simultaneously fulfilling a major objective of ours.

F yeah. Totally agree.

32 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

But that doesn't change Ukraine's reality, and there is no victory without our continued support. The United States military is not the training wheels, it's the whole f'n bike.

You're still overstating our role. Even if the US is the bike - Ukraine are the bicyclists. If the bike stops working or magically disappears - Ukraine are now the runners. Or maybe they have a scooter or motorcycle they jump on. It doesn't simplify to automatic defeat just because Uncle Sam decides to stop showing up (which, by the way...won't happen, so the entire discussion is moot).

 

[Beaker16]

Updated article: Ukrainian missile defense systems currently reported to be the kinetic effects.  

https://apnews.com/article/225dd98252e778bdc678f8596962833c

____

Initial post: Russian missiles impacted in Poland, killing two. If confirmed, interested to see the response.

https://apnews.com/article/9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52 

Edited November 17, 2022 by Chef16
New article

[brwwg&b]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1697080/russia-poland-missle-dead-NATO-state-Ukraine-war-pictures-world-war-3

Reports that the Polish prime minister is calling emergency meetings

[ClearedHot]

Will Russia deny...would serve them best to fess up and apologize immediately before the hawks start chanting Article 5.

[Prozac]

Hope everybody keeps their powder dry. Still not confirmed projectiles we’re Russian. Even if they were, it’s doubtful the targets were in Poland. Reports are that rockets struck a farm. Russians aren’t exactly known for their precision targeting these days & may have been trying to hit something more militarily significant inside Ukraine. If it was an accident, I hope the response will be something other than a kinetic one. 

[ClearedHot]

7 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Hope everybody keeps their powder dry. Still not confirmed projectiles we’re Russian. Even if they were, it’s doubtful the targets were in Poland. Reports are that rockets struck a farm. Russians aren’t exactly known for their precision targeting these days & may have been trying to hit something more militarily significant inside Ukraine. If it was an accident, I hope the response will be something other than a kinetic one. 

Doesn't appear to be "rockets", and they know it was Russian...trust me...they know.

Happened during a large missile attack across the country (appeared to be targeting power production and distribution).  The impact site is just west of the Ukrainian border, due north of LVIV.  If it was a rocket then it had to come from Belarus which would open a completely different can of worms...

 

[Prozac]

1 minute ago, ClearedHot said:

Doesn't appear to be "rockets", and they know it was Russian...trust me...they know.

Happened during a large missile attack across the country (appeared to be targeting power production and distribution).  The impact site is just west of the Ukrainian border, due north of LVIV.  If it was a rocket then it had to come from Belarus which would open a completely different can of worms...

 

Not disputing any of that. Just arguing that it’s a much different story/response if they were actively targeting Polish infrastructure vs something landing where it shouldn’t have. Not saying there shouldn’t be a response, but a couple stray munitions are probably not worth committing the entire alliance to war over. If it was intentional? Different story altogether…

[Prozac]

55 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Will Russia deny...would serve them best to fess up and apologize immediately before the hawks start chanting Article 5.

Looks like they’ve decided to deny. Stating there were no Russian strikes in the area. These guys haven’t played the smart move once since they decided to invade. Standby for some pissed off Poles. 

[uhhello]

We know where it came from and impacted.  So we know who launched it.  If it was Ukranian launched, rational me thinks they would have come out with "lets continue to investigate" versus going the article 4 route

[ClearedHot]

7 hours ago, uhhello said:

We know where it came from and impacted.  So we know who launched it.  If it was Ukranian launched, rational me thinks they would have come out with "lets continue to investigate" versus going the article 4 route

They are starting to report the missiles were tracked from launch to impact by airborne NATO aircraft and they think it was a Ukrainian missile attempting to intercept a Russian missile.

[Danger41]

Ukrainian missile hits NATO country and article 5 gets invoked to roll the Ukrainians now?! Didn’t see that coming.

[McJay Pilot]

20 minutes ago, Danger41 said:

Ukrainian missile hits NATO country and article 5 gets invoked to roll the Ukrainians now?! Didn’t see that coming.

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!

[dream big]

14 hours ago, Danger41 said:

Ukrainian missile hits NATO country and article 5 gets invoked to roll the Ukrainians now?! Didn’t see that coming.

Man this is going to make Biden’s proposed 37 Billion Dollar aid package to Ukraine all the more interesting. 

[Prozac]

16 hours ago, Danger41 said:

Ukrainian missile hits NATO country and article 5 gets invoked to roll the Ukrainians now?! Didn’t see that coming.

Care to elaborate? I missed most of today’s news cycle although I did see where the going explanation is stray Ukrainian SAM. Haven’t seen anything about NATO suggesting retaliating against Ukraine in any way. 

[gearhog]

[gearhog]

Zalensky issues a statement clarifying the event and finally puts the matter to rest: Ukraine doesn’t make mistakes. Only NATO and Russia do. 

[Danger41]

7 hours ago, Prozac said:

Care to elaborate? I missed most of today’s news cycle although I did see where the going explanation is stray Ukrainian SAM. Haven’t seen anything about NATO suggesting retaliating against Ukraine in any way. 

[uhhello]

14 hours ago, Prozac said:

Care to elaborate? I missed most of today’s news cycle although I did see where the going explanation is stray Ukrainian SAM. Haven’t seen anything about NATO suggesting retaliating against Ukraine in any way. 

You didn't get your orders? 

[Boomer6]

On 11/16/2022 at 4:29 AM, ClearedHot said:

Doesn't appear to be "rockets", and they know it was Russian...trust me...they know.

 

[LookieRookie]

On 11/15/2022 at 12:29 PM, ClearedHot said:

Doesn't appear to be "rockets", and they know it was Russian...trust me...they know.

Happened during a large missile attack across the country (appeared to be targeting power production and distribution).  The impact site is just west of the Ukrainian border, due north of LVIV.  If it was a rocket then it had to come from Belarus which would open a completely different can of worms...

 

So we shouldn’t trust you?

[ClearedHot]

11 hours ago, LookieRookie said:

So we shouldn’t trust you?

That is your decision.

It wasn't a "rocket" and that was known immediately.  The insinuation from that statement was it was an unguided artillery rocket Russia have employed VERY large numbers of this type of weapon which is part of their ground and pound doctrine.  They rockets while powerful do not have the range to go from the current occupied territories to Poland, a distance of many hundreds of miles hence my comment about Belarus.

It was a missile, meaning there was a guidance package.  The incident occurred during a large Russian missile attack on Ukrainian power grid infrastructure.  NATO aircraft were airborne and observing at the time, they in fact knew and tracked the point of origin and ground track of many of the incoming missiles.  Ukraine's air defense system was active and likely saturated, it has been reported that the Ukrainians shot down as many as 70+ missiles in that raid alone.

Initial forensic examination (picture below), indicates this was an S-300, so regardless of who shot it, it was a "Russian" missile.  However which side shot it has not been "officially" released. I speak with folks forward very often and one has told me there was in fact an inbound missile on the same inbound aspect that was engaged by the Ukrainians, that hostile missile had missed its intended target and was going "long".  Many Russian missiles have suffered from serious guidance and propulsion issues with one particular class suffering a 60% failure rate (someone needs to unpack that one).   There is a team on the ground and the Ukrainians (and Russians), have been allowed to participate.  One supposition is there were two missiles, the Russian attacking missile and a Ukrainian S-300 launched to intercept.  Another possibility is the Ukrainian missile missed and went long into Poland and the same track line.  Yet another option is the S-300 simply came out of the tube and went stupid, again on the same track line.  The S-300 has had some spectacular failures so that is always a distinct possibility as seen in the videos below.

Interestingly it has come to light that the Russians are have been using some variants of the S-300 in the surface to surface role.  A very expensive and not very accurate way of delivering a 300 pound warhead.  That is not likely what happened in this case.

 

[Sua Sponte]