Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Prozac]

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

What exactly do you guys think is going to happen to those weapons if Russia experiences internal collapse? 

Russian internal collapse happened in 1989-1991. We’re still trying to influence the fallout. 

[filthy_liar]

20 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Literally, if we could kneecap the Chinese military and oppressive CCP leadership in the same way and essentially guaranteed unfettered US & allied global dominance for a generation + for $1T and zero American lives lost, I would sign the check myself.

You sure are being optimistic about us kneecapping Russia.

[filthy_liar]

3 hours ago, Prozac said:

You know what everybody really should be absolutely terrified of: nuclear annihilation, ‘cause that’s still far and above the most likely way the human race ends. So yeah, an unstable dictator who offs anyone who produces information that displeases him and has the stated intent of reconstituting one of the most oppressive empires the planet has ever seen is, most assuredly, a threat. 

I understand your point.  But that has been a fact of life for my entire lifetime.  I remember being in class in gradeschool where they marched us into the auditorium and we watched the wall come down in 89.  After all of the duck and cover drills.  Its like a lot of other things, eventually I started scratching my head and asking why were we doing this?  So again, are you living in mortal fear day in and day out of Russia?  No.  No you are not.  This flare up is not going to result in nuclear annihilation.  So back to my point...is your life going to change if we don't give a nickel to the corrupt s in Ukraine?  No.  No it isn't.  And I'm not picking on Ukraine.  Is your life going to change if you don't give a nickel to the corrupt s in Washington?  No.

[filthy_liar]

18 hours ago, pawnman said:

If you're really on JWICS everyday, then you must know that Russia is a major global competitor that attempted to influence both the 2016 and 2020 elections. You can't possibly believe that the US isn't better off with a weakened Russian military, especially if you're on JWICS every day. 

I didn't know any of that, thank you for the update.

[nsplayr]

15 minutes ago, filthy_liar said:

You sure are being optimistic about us kneecapping Russia.

I am! ABO: always be optimistic.

Seriously, I truly believe based on everything I’ve read that the Russian military will be utterly spent and a large and unrecoverable % of their young male population will be dead to the point where it will take them a more than a generation to recover.

Their losses in Ukraine are unfathomable by modern US standards, and our population is 2.3x bigger. Potentially up to 100K men killed already, Jesus H. Christ. They’ve managed to double our entire Vietnam War casualties in less than a year, again, with a much smaller total population.

Let alone the amount military equipment that has been destroyed there, which is tremendous. The US has had approximately 0% of our military equipment destroyed in Ukraine, and we have a much larger defense industrial base able to resupply the expendable that are being used by the Ukrainians with our assistance.

Good luck Russia, hopefully Putin falls out a window, they retreat from this ill fated expedition, and real reform & economic modernization happens.

Edited January 13, 2023 by nsplayr

[filthy_liar]

6 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

Their losses in Ukraine are unfathomable by modern US standards, and our population is 2.3x bigger. Potentially up to 100K men killed already, Jesus H. Christ. They’ve managed to double our entire Vietnam War casualties in less than a year, again, with a much smaller total population.

 

Well, maybe.  I dunno.  Neither do you.  Or maybe you have a lot more faith in reported numbers/statistics than I do. Back to my original statement.  Has your life changed one ounce based on your statement above?  No.  It hasn't.  Before Russia invaded Ukraine, did you feel that your daily life was in any kind of grave danger from Russia?  No, you didn't.  

Raytheon, NG, LM, and a shitload of other defense contractors that have huge lobbyist influence in DC have a vested interest in making sure that no matter which way the political winds blow in the US, we always must have a boogeyman.

[FourFans]

19 minutes ago, filthy_liar said:

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, did you feel that your daily life was in any kind of grave danger from Russia?  No, you didn't.

Facts don't care about your feelings.  Russia, China and North Korea are all run by cults of personality.  If history tells us one thing about that kind of governing system, it's that the only predictable long term outcome is chaos and sadness.  No ground truth is making it out of those countries concerning just how close-hold, or hair trigger the nuclear forces really are.  Just because you don't know about it, doesn't mean the threat isn't there.  Three highly narcissistic and insolated-from-truth men hold the keys to some seriously powerful weapons.  Are you happy to simply ignore that?  You're ok saying "I can't see the threat so it doesn't exist"?

[filthy_liar]

12 minutes ago, FourFans130 said:

Facts don't care about your feelings.  Russia, China and North Korea are all run by cults of personality.  If history tells us one thing about that kind of governing system, it's that the only predictable long term outcome is chaos and sadness.  No ground truth is making it out of those countries concerning just how close-hold, or hair trigger the nuclear forces really are.  Just because you don't know about it, doesn't mean the threat isn't there.  Three highly narcissistic and insolated-from-truth men hold the keys to some seriously powerful weapons.  Are you happy to simply ignore that?  You're ok saying "I can't see the threat so it doesn't exist"?

Huh?  Sorry, dumb that down for me.  I have no idea what your point was there.  You did read my original point, yes?

 

[DSG]

16 minutes ago, FourFans130 said:

Facts don't care about your feelings.  Russia, China and North Korea are all run by cults of personality.  If history tells us one thing about that kind of governing system, it's that the only predictable long term outcome is chaos and sadness.  No ground truth is making it out of those countries concerning just how close-hold, or hair trigger the nuclear forces really are.  Just because you don't know about it, doesn't mean the threat isn't there.  Three highly narcissistic and insolated-from-truth men hold the keys to some seriously powerful weapons.  Are you happy to simply ignore that?  You're ok saying "I can't see the threat so it doesn't exist"?

 

Monarchy is the most stable and prevalent form of government in world history.  The last few decades are a blip.

Edited January 13, 2023 by DSG

[FLEA]

8 minutes ago, FourFans130 said:

Facts don't care about your feelings.  Russia, China and North Korea are all run by cults of personality.  If history tells us one thing about that kind of governing system, it's that the only predictable long term outcome is chaos and sadness.  No ground truth is making it out of those countries concerning just how close-hold, or hair trigger the nuclear forces really are.  Just because you don't know about it, doesn't mean the threat isn't there.  Three highly narcissistic and insolated-from-truth men hold the keys to some seriously powerful weapons.  Are you happy to simply ignore that?  You're ok saying "I can't see the threat so it doesn't exist"?

Er..... lots of feelings and assumptions in those statements, lol. 

 

[filthy_liar]

7 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Facts don't care about your feelings. 

Exactly.

[filthy_liar]

I think that was a quote of a quote.  Four Fans originally said the quote that was later quoted as a quote. Apologies for the quoting of a quote that was quoted.

[filthy_liar]

26 minutes ago, FourFans130 said:

Facts don't care about your feelings.  Russia, China and North Korea are all run by cults of personality.  If history tells us one thing about that kind of governing system, it's that the only predictable long term outcome is chaos and sadness.  No ground truth is making it out of those countries concerning just how close-hold, or hair trigger the nuclear forces really are.  Just because you don't know about it, doesn't mean the threat isn't there.  Three highly narcissistic and insolated-from-truth men hold the keys to some seriously powerful weapons.  Are you happy to simply ignore that?  You're ok saying "I can't see the threat so it doesn't exist"?

FourFans, what do you do differently in your life now that Russia, China, and North Korea are all run by cults of personality?  Nothing.  You don't do anything differently.  You might fancy yourself a badass that you're all prepared to step to night one, but really?  What do you do differently?  You seem to think that Russia is a big un.  Are they?

[StoleIt]

4 hours ago, FLEA said:

What exactly do you guys think is going to happen to those weapons if Russia experiences internal collapse? 

What happened the last time they (USSR) collapsed? I'd imagine, assuming a semi peaceful transfer of power and a status quo in the escalation of the current conflict...it will be the exact same as what happened in 1991.

[filthy_liar]

41 minutes ago, FourFans130 said:

Just because you don't know about it, doesn't mean the threat isn't there.  Three highly narcissistic and insolated-from-truth men hold the keys to some seriously powerful weapons.

Kinda do know about that.  Yes, you are correct some bad (maybe) men hold the keys.  That construct has been held since the 1960s.  I don't tell my daughter to hide under a desk for that.

 

[filthy_liar]

FourFans I'm not disagreeing with you. Yet.  Are the russians bad?  Yes.  I think where we go off the rails is let them be russians.  Let them be bad.  Are they going to do bad shit like attack Ukraine?  Of course they are.  em.  Let them get into that quagmire.  That absolutely does not equal + our country gets involved immediately.  At the end of the day, why the do I care if they attack a corrupt government that embezzled  millions of dollars of their citizen's pension funds?  Do I give one about a Ukranian's pension funds being embezzled?  No.  No I do not.

[Lord Ratner]

6 hours ago, FLEA said:

What exactly do you guys think is going to happen to those weapons if Russia experiences internal collapse? 

What happened last time?

 

This literally already happened. We were alive when it did.

[FLEA]

42 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

What happened last time?

 

This literally already happened. We were alive when it did.

That wasnt an internal collapse. More correctly the fall of the Soviet union would be a dissolution because it was orchestrated from the inside by design and the central government remained in power. An event like that happening again is completely reliant on Putin releasing control to a person who is heavily pro-west. Considering Putin believes the fall of the Soviet Union was the most tragic event to occur in global history should give you some insight into how likely that is. 

When people are concerned about internal collapse they are more so referring to the fallout of an enormous power vacuum if the central government is vacated. In which case the primary concern is a power grab by strongmen and oligarchs, purges, revolts, and insurgency. 

[dream big]

8 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I am! ABO: always be optimistic.

Seriously, I truly believe based on everything I’ve read that the Russian military will be utterly spent and a large and unrecoverable % of their young male population will be dead to the point where it will take them a more than a generation to recover.

Their losses in Ukraine are unfathomable by modern US standards, and our population is 2.3x bigger. Potentially up to 100K men killed already, Jesus H. Christ. They’ve managed to double our entire Vietnam War casualties in less than a year, again, with a much smaller total population.

Let alone the amount military equipment that has been destroyed there, which is tremendous. The US has had approximately 0% of our military equipment destroyed in Ukraine, and we have a much larger defense industrial base able to resupply the expendable that are being used by the Ukrainians with our assistance.

Good luck Russia, hopefully Putin falls out a window, they retreat from this ill fated expedition, and real reform & economic modernization happens.

Your last paragraph is most important; like any group of people, most Russians are nice people who desperately want to be like the West and hate their government. You see it all over Europe with Russian expats. Oh and they tend to be strongly pro capitalist as they have seen first hand what the alternative does to a country. 

[FourFans]

10 hours ago, filthy_liar said:

FourFans I'm not disagreeing with you. Yet.  Are the russians bad?  Yes.  I think where we go off the rails is let them be russians.  Let them be bad.  Are they going to do bad shit like attack Ukraine?  Of course they are.  em.  Let them get into that quagmire.  That absolutely does not equal + our country gets involved immediately.  At the end of the day, why the do I care if they attack a corrupt government that embezzled  millions of dollars of their citizen's pension funds?  Do I give one about a Ukranian's pension funds being embezzled?  No.  No I do not.

....and many other quotes...

I do live my life differently because of the realities of the world.  First and foremost, I pay attention to what's happening in the world, and I vote for people whom I believe will respond to those issues responsibly with the best interest of our country in mind.  Unfortunately, my candidates did not win recently, and it appears that we have a large section of the country who doesn't very much like our country, but that's a different topic.  I also try to live a sustainable life, so if the lights go off because of an EMP, or a simply a network/grid shutdown, my family and I will survive.  My kids may group up in suburbia, but they will not be dependent on suburbia. 

Moreover, I am raising my kids to be adults who are aware of the world around them, and to understand how to filter out the ignorant opinions that media, politicians, Karens, and internet forums will spew at them.  My kids great up overseas for some time.  They understand why the US is truly amazing and unique in it's liberties and freedoms.  Understanding the real threats in the world is definitely impacting how I raise my kids, and I value my parenting task as possibly the most important and world changing thing I might do in my life.  If my kids impact a single life because of wisdom they learned in childhood, it'll have been worth it.

Beyond that, I study facts and history.  The American way of international relations since WWII has been to make sure other country's problems stay in other countries.  You call Ukraine a quagmire for Russia.  It wouldn't be a quagmire without US involvement.  If you don't understand that, go read about Chinese involvement in Vietnam, or US involvement in 1980's Afghanistan, or the French Foreign Legion, or how Rome ran it's empire.  History is littered with precedent.  The reason America is what it is today is because we (typically) refuse to wait until the fight comes to us.  If you don't think Russia would love to kneecap the US, think again.  It wouldn't occur in the ways many imagine with conventional forces and red dawn, but rather with infiltration, espionage, and subterfuge.  Read about Gorbachev's or China's plans and actions with infiltration agents in the US. 

Bottom line is that Americans cannot stick their head in the sand and pretend like all these world problems can't hurt us.  Will it largely impact how I cook my eggs in the morning, probably not...unless this whole gas stove stupidity changes that.  But hey, I am intentionally not buying an EV because I've read and personally seen with my own eyes how corrupt and horrid that supply chain is for the earth and our own economy.  So, yeah, there are decisions I make routinely that are impacted by the international environment.

 However, just because you don't see a difference in your own personal day to day doesn't mean that there's nothing happening, or that personal decisions don't make a different.  We ALL have blind spots.  Some we choose, others we simply have for any number of reasons.  Do not conflate your chosen personal blind spot with the reality of the world. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by FourFans130

[FLEA]

I wonder if they understand how ridiculous this sounds to even some of the conflict's staunches skeptics to include me:

Quote

“Any use of force by the Kyiv regime or a Ukrainian military invasion of either Belarus or Russia would be enough to trigger a collective response," Aleksey Polishchuk, a director in Russian Foreign Ministry, told TASS, referring to the so-called Union State that Belarus and Russia formed together years ago, in which the countries have been enmeshing their banking, military, and economic sectors.

“The republic has the sovereign right to defend its territory through all means available and Minsk can count on Russia’s full support here,” Polishchuk said.

 

This is pretty scary. The conditions are being set to escalate this into a much wider regional conflict. 

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-sets-ultimatum-formally-pull-184620634.html

Edited January 13, 2023 by FLEA

[Clark Griswold]

I wonder if they understand how ridiculous this sounds to even some of the conflict's staunches skeptics to include me:

“Any use of force by the Kyiv regime or a Ukrainian military invasion of either Belarus or Russia would be enough to trigger a collective response," Aleksey Polishchuk, a director in Russian Foreign Ministry, told TASS, referring to the so-called Union State that Belarus and Russia formed together years ago, in which the countries have been enmeshing their banking, military, and economic sectors.

“The republic has the sovereign right to defend its territory through all means available and Minsk can count on Russia’s full support here,” Polishchuk said.

 
This is pretty scary. The conditions are being set to escalate this into a much wider regional conflict. 
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-sets-ultimatum-formally-pull-184620634.html

False flag border attack ala Nazi Germany on Poland followed by short notice impossible ultimatum, Belarus is the aggrieved party with Russia riding to save them and we’re off…

They may bring a bit to their fight but probably not much, guessing they would be used to free up more Russian troops for offensive operations while they guard the bases and already secured areas


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[StoleIt]

Everything I've read (open source) is that Ukraine has preparations for Belarus to enter the conflict and has massed troops and resources accordingly. It also seems the geography/terrain is highly in Ukraine's favor.

[FLEA]

1 hour ago, Clark Griswold said:

 
This is pretty scary. The conditions are being set to escalate this into a much wider regional conflict. 
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-sets-ultimatum-formally-pull-184620634.html

False flag border attack ala Nazi Germany on Poland followed by short notice impossible ultimatum, Belarus is the aggrieved party with Russia riding to save them and we’re off…
 

 

They may bring a bit to their fight but probably not much, guessing they would be used to free up more Russian troops for offensive operations while they guard the bases and already secured areas


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

They don't even need a false flag. Ukraine has already launched drone attacks into Russian territory (like actual Russia, not "new Russia") That's enough pretense under their current language.

[nsplayr]

“Hey we’re going to invade your country, but if you try to fight us in our country we’ll be BIG MAD.”

Lol…that’s not the statement you put out when you’re winning.

Slava Ukraini!