Energy Policy

[nsplayr]

To consolidate discussions from both the Ukraine & politics threads. Open for discussing all things energy policy!

I’ll lead with this: despite rhetoric to the contrary, US domestic oil production is projected to set a new record high in 2023, reflecting a full recovery from the losses due to the pandemic.

“U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.2 million b/d in 2021. We expect production to average 11.8 million b/d in 2022 and to rise to 12.4 million b/d in 2023, which would be the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production on record. The current record is 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019.”

Source: Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, Jan 2022

[Guest LumberjackAxe]

- All commuter cars need to be electric

- The backbone of our electrical grid to power these cars should be nuclear

- This nuclear power plant also powers dozens of desalination stations, thus making drought on the coasts no big deal

- Petroleum power is reserved for aircraft, vessels, heavy industries, and plastics, thus delaying peak oil until after Earth is swallowed by the sun

- I have no training or experience in any of the above

[hockeydork]

My consolidated take as well:

- All boring vehicles, commuter cars, minivans, school buses, taxi cabs, trains, need to be electric.

- The backbone of our electrical grid to power these should be as much wind & roof top solar (where it works) as we can put in the ocean/on houses and as high as we can put it so where the wind blows more constant. Supplement this with nuclear plants on cloudy days/low wind. Have an app that informs people based on weather projections when will be a good time to charge their commuter/program their dishwasher/laundry machine to run. 

- Nuclear power plant also powers dozens of desalination stations, thus making drought on the coasts no big deal (interesting point by lumberjackaxe, if you can get an abundance of electricity, this could be made more feasible). 

- Petroleum power is reserved for aircraft, plastics, racing enthusiasts (could likely make do with ethanol) AND shipment of energy in times of crisis. Things like aircraft are unique in that they are likely to need fossil fuels for a very long time. It is impossible to send electricity made by a wind turbine on a ship to a disaster zone. This is what frustrates me most when discussing alternative energy, people automatically assume you hate fossil fuels. I believe they need to be preserved for uses where there is not really an alternative. Battery powered airplanes are a distant pipe dream. Hydrogen powered one seem like a really bad idea (kaboom). 

-Marine vessels should use some sort of clean hydrogen made from nuke/solar/wind. Large ships have the ability to safely store it and bunker it like LNG. 

- Instead of having politicians argue and push for different sources not based on their merits, but based on jobs in their districts, some sort of transfer program is enacted. I.E for every 1000 wind turbine technician jobs added, coal miners have the ability to receive training into the new field & a job slot free of charge.

[disgruntledemployee]

1st, I like Earth.  But I also like gas, so I'll be a self professed racing enthusiast.

BTW, hydrogen, the smallest atom, is not easily stored.  It likes to escape from sealed containers.  And what is dirty hydrogen? 

And then there's this...

 

[bfargin]

Wind is a terrible energy source for mass production. Nuclear is the cleanest and safest energy source we have available. We even have the ability to make power from elements that can't be weaponized and can be recycled almost to zero remaining waste. Let's spend some money and energy getting that in place (to at least eliminate coal usage). There is no excuse for us to depend on coal for more than 20% of our power generation.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

Edited March 8, 2022 by bfargin

[waveshaper]

[ClearedHot]

Biden just banned Russian oil...will it matter?

Sadly Biden could not resist the opportunity to spew his 9,000 unused leases talking point.  That point is such a red herring.  Do a little digging and look at how the administration administratively restricts efforts to actually explore and tap those leases.  Want to do a seismic study to gain insight of the underground structure...apply for a permit that is delayed for years.  Finally get that permit and you want to followup with some exploratory drilling...apply for a permit that is again delayed or challenged in court. 

Yes we have the highest oil production ever, yet we are still importing.  I think point biggest point folks are trying to make is lets increase production to be completely energy independent. 

One other point on Keystone, I hate that the GOP latch onto it as the solution.  Realistically it was simply about bringing Canadian oil to refineries in the south and would have a negligible effect.  Keystone is more of a symbol that does messages to both the radical left and to the market as a whole.

I agree with @nsplayr, lets have an energy abundance that gives us independence and options.  I would also put some conditions on energy derived from public lands.  Levy a tax or lease charge that diverts those profits to technology that reduces carbon emissions, removes carbon emissions or helps develop clean/renewable energy.  

 

 

[hockeydork]

13 hours ago, bfargin said:

Wind is a terrible energy source for mass production. Nuclear is the cleanest and safest energy source we have available. We even have the ability to make power from elements that can't be weaponized and can be recycled almost to zero remaining waste. Let's spend some money and energy getting that in place (to at least eliminate coal usage). There is no excuse for us to depend on coal for more than 20% of our power generation.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

It is not a panacea solution for sure and has its drawbacks until something like kinetic strorage systems are viable, but even adding an additional 10 percent adds such stability to the rest of the energy market. Wind is an inexhaustible fuel source, unless the sun blows up, in which it is game over anyways. I think most agree going forward there is going to be a combination of sources to achieve reliable/sustainable US energy independence and stability.  

[BFM this]

2 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I agree with @nsplayr, 

Mark the tapes...

[BFM this]

19 hours ago, hockeydork said:

- The backbone of our electrical grid to power these should be as much wind & roof top solar (where it works) as we can put in the ocean/on houses and as high as we can put it so where the wind blows more constant. Supplement this with nuclear plants on cloudy days/low wind. Have an app that informs people based on weather projections when will be a good time to charge their commuter/program their dishwasher/laundry machine to run. 

Ops tested Feb 2021 in TX.  

Wind and solar make great supplementals, not the main mast of the ship.

[ClearedHot]

26 minutes ago, BFM this said:

Mark the tapes...

Full disclosure, I know him in the real world and he is a good human being.  While I have no desire to sit around the camp fire in my hemp pants eating veggie meat while we play the tambourine, he is an American patriot and a warrior and I would proudly serve with him.

[FLEA]

6 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Biden just banned Russian oil...will it matter?

Sadly Biden could not resist the opportunity to spew his 9,000 unused leases talking point.  That point is such a red herring.  Do a little digging and look at how the administration administratively restricts efforts to actually explore and tap those leases.  Want to do a seismic study to gain insight of the underground structure...apply for a permit that is delayed for years.  Finally get that permit and you want to followup with some exploratory drilling...apply for a permit that is again delayed or challenged in court. 

Yes we have the highest oil production ever, yet we are still importing.  I think point biggest point folks are trying to make is lets increase production to be completely energy independent. 

One other point on Keystone, I hate that the GOP latch onto it as the solution.  Realistically it was simply about bringing Canadian oil to refineries in the south and would have a negligible effect.  Keystone is more of a symbol that does messages to both the radical left and to the market as a whole.

I agree with @nsplayr, lets have an energy abundance that gives us independence and options.  I would also put some conditions on energy derived from public lands.  Levy a tax or lease charge that diverts those profits to technology that reduces carbon emissions, removes carbon emissions or helps develop clean/renewable energy.  

 

 

EU also agreed to reduce imports from Russia by 2/3s by December. I think their position is a little harder than ours with states like Hungary relying exclusively on Russian energy. They are going to need some time to figure out supply chain and source other providers. I also think its not just oil for them but natural gas, refined power, etc... that complicates it quite a bit more. 

[BashiChuni]

[HeloDude]

4 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Full disclosure, I know him in the real world and he is a good human being.  While I have no desire to sit around the camp fire in my hemp pants eating veggie meat while we play the tambourine, he is an American patriot and a warrior and I would proudly serve with him.

I’m much more concerned that you’re saying such positive things about a Nav…

I kid I kid…but seriously 😉

 

[herkbum]

I’m much more concerned that you’re saying such positive things about a Nav…
I kid I kid…but seriously
 

Former Nav


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

[BashiChuni]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430
 

biden is such a joke. Everyone knows it but the American democrat voter. 

[Stoker]

The idea of having the majority of our electricity come from solar and wind is untenable. We don't have enough real estate (near places that actually use the power), we don't have enough raw materials, and we don't have even a tenth of a percent of the storage capacity necessary for a couple cloudy weeks of winter. Back it up with nuclear, you say, but if you're going to build nuclear plants that can handle 100% of the electrical load, in addition to renewables that can handle 100% of the electrical load... why not just build the nuclear plants and save literally trillions of dollars (besides letting people virtue signal by having solar roofs).

The problem is that the time scale to build a nuclear plant is more or less twenty years at this point. Places that have heavily gone into renewables, like California, are going to face rolling blackouts for at least that long, and that's if their political establishment leans into nuclear today, which it won't. Gas and coal plants are reaching the end of their planned life (if not already years beyond, because replacements won't get permitted), so they'll be offline for maintenance more and more. Meanwhile electricity demands will go up as more EVs hit the roads and natural gas heating is phased out.

We really need a national Manhattan Project II to push nuclear, rapidly, around the country, as a matter of national security. As others have said, the sooner oil is only used for niche transport applications and industrial/chemical processes, the better, as we can completely divest from the petrostates abroad.

[Guardian]

How is energy stored now? Aren’t batteries perishable?

[hockeydork]

30 minutes ago, Guardian said:

How is energy stored now? Aren’t batteries perishable?

There is also some promising kinetic storage systems in addition to batteries, i.e. masses spun at high speed in a vacuum to later take the energy back out. Tech is still teething, but I think we'll see progress in that area. There's just never really been a need for mass power storage like this before, the system was design around on demand fossil fuels. 

I still think the US could be powered mostly by renewable, especially if you look at the evolution of wind turbines, how far they've come, and how as they get bigger and bigger the power they can extract goes up exponentially. But if we can't get it to work, than nuke as the back bone, supplement with as much wind/solar as we can all the way. Anything to break us from the instability of this fossil fuel death grip. America cannot be chained to countries that dislike us. 

[DirkDiggler]

35 minutes ago, Guardian said:

How is energy stored now? Aren’t batteries perishable?

Caveat: This information is 3 & 1/2 years old now so things may have changed.

  When I was at JPMEII we had a phenomenal guest speaker (PhD type from a DC area college, wish I could remember her name, is a consultant/SME for lots of military and state things) come and brief us on global energy security and politics, one of the best briefings I've ever sat through.  Someone in the audience asked this exact question in regards to renewables like solar and wind.

  Believe it or not, her answer was "water".  Due to the current limitations in battery technology (inability to store the type of energy you'd need to power a city or something of that size overnight or when the wind isn't blowing) it's just not possible to use batteries at our current level of technology.  She said currently the most efficient way to store large amounts of renewable energy was to use excess power during the day or high wind times to pump large amounts of water into higher level pools or tanks, then use the flow of water back lower to drive turbines generating electricity.

  This hasn't been implemented anywhere on a large scale that I'm aware of but it's not something I follow closely.   

[Lecarpetron Dukemarriot]

10 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

Caveat: This information is 3 & 1/2 years old now so things may have changed.

  When I was at JPMEII we had a phenomenal guest speaker (PhD type from a DC area college, wish I could remember her name, is a consultant/SME for lots of military and state things) come and brief us on global energy security and politics, one of the best briefings I've ever sat through.  Someone in the audience asked this exact question in regards to renewables like solar and wind.

  Believe it or not, her answer was "water".  Due to the current limitations in battery technology (inability to store the type of energy you'd need to power a city or something of that size overnight or when the wind isn't blowing) it's just not possible to use batteries at our current level of technology.  She said currently the most efficient way to store large amounts of renewable energy was to use excess power during the day or high wind times to pump large amounts of water into higher level pools or tanks, then use the flow of water back lower to drive turbines generating electricity.

  This hasn't been implemented anywhere on a large scale that I'm aware of but it's not something I follow closely.   

 

[Milton]

Pumped storage has been around for a while, and its only used at small scale to smooth peak loads.  It was primarily used as a revenue source over periods between high and low demand and supply constraints...e.g. hot summer days constrained by supply and thermal factors and night time when demand decreased.  This works by using excess load during the night to pump water up into a reservoir, then use the same penstock/turbine as a generator system during the day to meet increased load.  It basically allowed small generator systems to make revenue by meeting demand during a niche period.  After all of the infrastructure costs and efficiency loss in the system, they can squeeze out a small profit during a specific period of time.

At scale, this is limited by a number of factors, e.g. geographical location, topography, environmental and hydrological concerns, and system size.  I believe the linked video demonstrates the difficulty in achieving any sort of net returns at both small and large scales...there's small "sweet spot" that can smooth demands at local or regional levels.

This technology has been around for 100+ years and every so often it gets brought up by alternative energy advocates and activists.  Its basically a feel-good story that has numerous constraints that limit its practical application.  The same tree huggers calling for alternative energy are going to be pissed when massive areas are cleared for a reservoir and aquatic ecosystems are destroyed.

[DirkDiggler]

16 minutes ago, Lecarpetron Dukemarriot said:

 

Thanks much for posting that, very interesting video, I didn't realize how widespread the use of this was.  As I mentioned above, that briefing was one of the most informative and engrossing briefings I've attended in my 19 years in, would love to see a follow up given the rapid changes in the world going on today. 

[FDNYOldGuy]

1 hour ago, Guardian said:

How is energy stored now? Aren’t batteries perishable?

As @hockeydork said, pumped hydro or spinning the mass in a vacuum are options. I've also been following this company, ENERGY VAULT, (and others like it) and think it could be a potential storage option besides pumped hydro (harder in urban areas) or batteries (high in demand for other uses with currently tight resources/questionable materials availability and practices). I'm no engineering genius, nor, admittedly, have I dug very deep into the technology (it's on the list of things to do), but it kinda makes sense as a simple/viable option that could be deployable in different environments (cities, rural, deserts, limited sun, whatever).

Basically, it's a big ass crane that stacks heavy concrete blocks. It can utilize renewable electricity to lift the blocks and store the kinetic energy when power to do so is readily available (when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining), then it can return that kinetic energy to electrical energy by lowering the blocks to turn a generator when other renewables can't (calm days/night). 

Obviously, baseload potential through (optimally) nuclear or (currently) coal/gas is still a must to ensure there's always something available, but anything that can help defray some of the reliance on fossil fuels/other countries that provide them would be good in my book.

Of course, all of these technologies are currently expensive and can't provide what we need at this moment, but we've got to start somewhere. Economies of scale don't just appear, engineering gets better with time, and costs go down/effectiveness goes up when things become more widely implemented, but something has to start the ball rolling. If it's a removal of Russian oil that gets the investment/interest building, so be it. The biggest changes happen when they're affecting wallets, so seems like an opportunity to start that change.   

Edited March 9, 2022 by FDNYOldGuy
Aenglichhh is tuf

[hockeydork]

26 minutes ago, FDNYOldGuy said:

As @hockeydork said, pumped hydro or spinning the mass in a vacuum are options. I've also been following this company, ENERGY VAULT, and think it could be a potential storage option besides pumped hydro (harder in urban areas) or batteries (high in demand for other uses with currently tight resources/questionable materials availability and practices). I'm no engineering genius, nor, admittedly, have I dug very deep into the technology (it's on the list of things to do), but it kinda makes sense as a simple/viable option that could be deployable in different environments (cities, rural, deserts, limited sun, whatever).

Basically, it's a big ass crane that stacks heavy concrete blocks. It can utilize renewable electricity to lift the blocks and store the kinetic energy when power to do so is readily available (when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining), then it can return that kinetic energy to electrical energy by lowering the blocks to turn a generator when other renewables can't (calm days/night). 

Obviously, baseload potential through (optimally) nuclear or (currently) coal/gas is still a must to ensure there's always something available, but anything that can help defray some of the reliance on fossil fuels/other countries that provide them would be good in my book.

Of course, all of these technologies are currently expensive and can't provide what we need at this moment, but we've got to start somewhere. Economies of scale don't just appear, engineering gets better with time, and costs go down/effectiveness goes up when things become more widely implemented, but something has to start the ball rolling. If it's a removal of Russian oil that gets the investment/interest building, so be it. The biggest changes happen when it's affecting wallets, so seems like an opportunity to start that change.   

I've seen that storage system as well, which does look promising. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by hockeydork
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