Africa Shehanigans

[ClearedHot]

For years folks have warned about the spread of VEOs to Africa, a historically under-resourced AOR.  Our haphazard withdrawal from Afghanistan appears to have emboldened these folks to grow their influence.  We have added forces but the administration promised us they would be able to handle this with an "over the horizon" strategy which appears to be failing miserably.

The U.S. Is Losing Yet Another ‘War on Terror’

It is the Rolling Stone so as usual take with a grain of salt.  However, those of us who deployed and operated there will see the indicators of a growing problem that WILL manifest itself in the near future.

[tac airlifter]

Good article, important subject.  I’ve fought in in WA, Sahel and EA and offer 2 relevant observations:

1. Impossible to have serious impact on the enemy given high threshold for kinetic strikes (even those supporting partner TICs).  Things that would be O4/O5 level TEA in the IZ/AFG heyday are GCC, DoS main and ambassador level.  Lost strike opportunities and loss of partner trust are the norm.

2. We are fighting cross-border VEOs using a “strategy” restricted by borders.  For example, AQIM moves freely between Niger, Mali, Algeria (and others) but authorities are drastically different in those 3 countries, and matched to the task in none.

Unless we can fix those issues we’ll lose out there, but not before spending more blood and treasure.

[uhhello]

2 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

Good article, important subject.  I’ve fought in in WA, Sahel and EA and offer 2 relevant observations:

1. Impossible to have serious impact on the enemy given high threshold for kinetic strikes (even those supporting partner TICs).  Things that would be O4/O5 level TEA in the IZ/AFG heyday are GCC, DoS main and ambassador level.  Lost strike opportunities and loss of partner trust are the norm.

2. We are fighting cross-border VEOs using a “strategy” restricted by borders.  For example, AQIM moves freely between Niger, Mali, Algeria (and others) but authorities are drastically different in those 3 countries, and matched to the task in none.

Unless we can fix those issues we’ll lose out there, but not before spending more blood and treasure.

If only we had experiences from other conflicts to draw on and learn from.  

[FourFans]

3 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

Unless we can fix those issues we’ll lose out there, but not before spending more blood and treasure.

Quoted for posterity. 

Having absorbed rounds (which I was later told didn't hit my airplane) over that continent and put wheels down in places we "have no presence", certain places can decimate the US military, in it's present set-up, if we keep pretending there is no fight there.  I was by no means even close to the tip of the spear.  The "just the tip" concept we're employing there right now will do nothing more than get American's killed in yet another local civil war.  Either we roll heavy, or we shouldn't roll at all. 

I'm tired of America's hairy chested bearded men coming back home in body bags because weak dick 'men' in charge aren't sure how to make a decision.

6 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Our haphazard withdrawal from Afghanistan appears to have emboldened these folks to grow their influence.

It didn't appear to do so.  It DIRECTLY did so.  With people, and equipment, and tactics, and will power...

 

Instructional Fix: In every presidential debate and senate confirmation hearing: A significantly sized character, with timing unknown to the candidate, full force open hand slaps the candidate so the whole world gets to see how they respond to be humiliated on a world stage.  Because that's what certain parts of africa...and china...and the south pacific...and eastern europe... can do to America if they organize themselves correctly.

Can we please have man in charge of our country again?  Please?  Where is a Reagan when you need him?!

Edited October 18, 2022 by FourFans130

[Standby]

It’s a continent, not a country. I’m tired of the CT mission/narrative because it’s an unwinnable mission. Fuck it…let them have the desert. 

[dream big]

12 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

For years folks have warned about the spread of VEOs to Africa, a historically under-resourced AOR.  Our haphazard withdrawal from Afghanistan appears to have emboldened these folks to grow their influence.  We have added forces but the administration promised us they would be able to handle this with an "over the horizon" strategy which appears to be failing miserably.

The U.S. Is Losing Yet Another ‘War on Terror’

It is the Rolling Stone so as usual take with a grain of salt.  However, those of us who deployed and operated there will see the indicators of a growing problem that WILL manifest itself in the near future.

This one hits close to home. AFRICOM is the red headed step child for the Joint Staff. Practically no assigned forces, they must always borrow forces from EUCOM or CENTCOM. The rotational forces are under resourced and no one gives a shit. It doesn’t help that we withdrew all forces out of Somalia at the end of Trump’s presidency, failed at over the horizon support, and now are moving back into Somalia with a yet to be clear strategy. 
 

This goes beyond the VEO arguement, the Chinese have encroached into Djibouti and Kenya, they even have military bases in those countries. 
 

I’m not sure what the right answer is, but we either need to commit or “let them have their desert”. 

[nsplayr]

Still some good work getting done when possible.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-says-it-killed-al-shabaab-co-founder-2022-10-03/

VEOs on a continent as large and diverse as Africa are going to exist. TBH I’m a fan of relatively minimal force being used in order to support friendly governments and “mow the grass” when it comes to the very worst guys. Otherwise these dudes don’t pose that great of a threat to the US and I don’t think we should spend a ton of brain bites opposing them.

Over-the-horizon intel collect with very occasional strikes or raids is not a bad strategy for an AOR that’s at absolute maximum 4th in importance right now.

Continued economic development in Africa is the biggest thing that would move the needle toward relative peace and stability - let’s facilitate that whenever possible.

[dream big]

22 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

Still some good work getting done when possible.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-says-it-killed-al-shabaab-co-founder-2022-10-03/

VEOs on a continent as large and diverse as Africa are going to exist. TBH I’m a fan of relatively minimal force being used in order to support friendly governments and “mow the grass” when it comes to the very worst guys. Otherwise these dudes don’t pose that great of a threat to the US and I don’t think we should spend a ton of brain bites opposing them.

Over-the-horizon intel collect with very occasional strikes or raids is not a bad strategy for an AOR that’s at absolute maximum 4th in importance right now.

Continued economic development in Africa is the biggest thing that would move the needle toward relative peace and stability - let’s facilitate that whenever possible.

Over the horizon was not working though. It was a 4 star level visibility event anytime a C-130 landed in Somalia between Jan 21 and Summer 2022. The episodic support simply wasn’t a viable strategy.

I’m not saying we should build a Djibouti like base in Somalia, but we should either commit or get out of that shit hole. 

[tac airlifter]

26 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

Still some good work getting done when possible.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-says-it-killed-al-shabaab-co-founder-2022-10-03/

VEOs on a continent as large and diverse as Africa are going to exist. TBH I’m a fan of relatively minimal force being used in order to support friendly governments and “mow the grass” when it comes to the very worst guys. Otherwise these dudes don’t pose that great of a threat to the US and I don’t think we should spend a ton of brain bites opposing them.

Over-the-horizon intel collect with very occasional strikes or raids is not a bad strategy for an AOR that’s at absolute maximum 4th in importance right now.

Continued economic development in Africa is the biggest thing that would move the needle toward relative peace and stability - let’s facilitate that whenever possible.

Bro, I agree on all points.  But violence is a funny thing.  It’s a risk/reward calculation between using too little or too much.  I think we use too little in Africa to achieve our objectives.  And using too little is worse than none at all, it hardens enemy resolve and dilutes partner trust when it takes 45 min & 4FWIA to get a single hellfire on tgt.  
 

Philosophically, when using violence I’d prefer we start with too much then throttle back if required.  We do the opposite because it’s better politics, but it’s worked precisely no where.

[StoleIt]

Yesterday Sudanese Mig-29's attacking the Rapid Intervention Forces:

 

Also yesterday: