World War III Updates

[fire4effect]

3 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

Zeihan has thoughts on that

 

 

 

 

My druthers, beating Iran down is worth the risk to the secondary disruption to the global economy.
If you don’t establish deterrence via disproportionate retaliation then prepare for a decade of deadly harassment from rogue nations


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Something that always struck me about that part of the world was all they really have is oil. Everything else is imported from cars to clothes. And having China "squealin from the feelin" is gravy on top. Militaries don't do well without lots of gas to keep things moving especially in wartime.  Japan learned the hard way in WW2 that sooner or later you have to have the capacity to replace losses.

On a side note take everything you hear from the Iraqi Government with a grain of salt. At least as far back as 2008 the Iraqi Parliament engaged in that time honored Middle Eastern tradition of members taking bribes, from Iran for votes against the interests of the US. I doubt any of that has changed. All about the Benjamin's and without that you don't get to play.

[FourFans]

What ever happened to the US's stance of "If you start a fight with me, I'll finish it"  ???   

Seriously. 

Now it's "please don't start a fight...please please please please...ok fine I have enough dead Americans now and my populace is rather pissed...I'll strike something NEAR you, please don't hurt me"   

This weak dick foreign policy needs to go.

[Lord Ratner]

3 hours ago, FourFans said:

What ever happened to the US's stance of "If you start a fight with me, I'll finish it"  ???   

Seriously. 

Now it's "please don't start a fight...please please please please...ok fine I have enough dead Americans now and my populace is rather pissed...I'll strike something NEAR you, please don't hurt me"   

This weak dick foreign policy needs to go.

It's not going anywhere. The population is more interested in what they can get from the government, and they will elect politicians based on it. Neither Trump or Biden claim any intention of fixing the deficit caused by these giveaways.

 

Any threat to global stability is a threat to the governments' ability to continue the domestic handouts, so they will keep their head in the sand. Ironically, the obsession with short-term stability is going to guarantee the deterioration of conditions long-term.

[Clark Griswold]

Something that always struck me about that part of the world was all they really have is oil. Everything else is imported from cars to clothes. And having China "squealin from the feelin" is gravy on top. Militaries don't do well without lots of gas to keep things moving especially in wartime.  Japan learned the hard way in WW2 that sooner or later you have to have the capacity to replace losses.
On a side note take everything you hear from the Iraqi Government with a grain of salt. At least as far back as 2008 the Iraqi Parliament engaged in that time honored Middle Eastern tradition of members taking bribes, from Iran for votes against the interests of the US. I doubt any of that has changed. All about the Benjamin's and without that you don't get to play.

I think some of them realize that (hydrocarbon export based economies if they have oil/gas and if not they are mainly client states of other powers)
MBS (and a few others) seems to want to try to diversify from just oil exports, they have some financial resources to effect this but will quite a juggling act on his part or any other ME leader who attempts this. They buy social stability with heavy subsidies and keep their clergy in line with generous deference and financial support, can these states keep those two expenses paid while subsidizing a nascent industry that the people of their states can and will do? I’m cynically hopeful for them as I am for parts of America that struggle today


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[GKinnear]

 

Open source reporting it was some remotely piloted American exceptionalism that carried out the strike.

🍻 to the crew if I ever run into them!

 

[uhhello]

20 minutes ago, GKinnear said:

 

Open source reporting it was some remotely piloted American exceptionalism that carried out the strike.

🍻 to the crew if I ever run into them!

 

Ginsu 3000 got em'

[fire4effect]

40 minutes ago, uhhello said:

Ginsu 3000 got em'

Yep, the vehicle sure appeared to have the signature can opener marks.

Too bad they can't buy the wreck and put it on a pole outside of Creech🍻

Edited February 8 by fire4effect

[uhhello]

35 minutes ago, fire4effect said:

Yep, the vehicle sure appeared to have the signature can opener marks.

Too bad they can't buy the wreck and put it on a pole outside of Creech🍻

[Sim]

Laser on

3 - 2 - 1 Rifle. 

20 seconds. 

Laser off. 

 

Enjoy hot wings and beer, anonymous crew. 

[uhhello]

35 minutes ago, fire4effect said:

Yep, the vehicle sure appeared to have the signature can opener marks.

Too bad they can't buy the wreck and put it on a pole outside of Creech🍻

 

[tac airlifter]

1 hour ago, uhhello said:

Ginsu 3000 got em'

[fire4effect]

3 hours ago, uhhello said:

Are those a stack of singles? No trip to the strip club for you!

To paraphrase a recently departed true American Treasure Toby Keith, this is what happens when "Uncle Sam puts your name at the top of his list."

[Biff_T]

13 hours ago, fire4effect said:

Are those a stack of singles? No trip to the strip club for you!

To paraphrase a recently departed true American Treasure Toby Keith, this is what happens when "Uncle Sam puts your name at the top of his list."

Got to spend all your dough at the Library, you cant take those singles with you to hell.. 

[nsplayr]

 

[gearhog]

Russia is going to nuke our satellites. We must nuke them first.

Russia is trying to develop a nuclear space weapon that would destroy satellites by creating a massive energy wave when detonated, potentially crippling a vast swath of the commercial and government satellites that the world below depends on to talk on cell phones, pay bills, and surf the internet, according to three sources familiar with US intelligence about the weapon.

These sources gave CNN a more detailed understanding of what Russia is working on – and the threat it could pose – than the US government has previously disclosed.

Republican Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, set off a frenzy in Washington on Wednesday when he issued a statement saying his panel “had information concerning a serious national security threat.” By Friday, President Joe Biden had publicly confirmed that Turner was referring to a new Russian nuclear anti-satellite capability — but officials have steadfastly refused to discuss it further, citing the highly classified nature of the intelligence.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/16/politics/russia-nuclear-space-weapon-intelligence/index.html

[FourFans]

7 minutes ago, gearhog said:

Russia is going to nuke our satellites. We must nuke them first.

Russia is trying to develop a nuclear space weapon that would destroy satellites by creating a massive energy wave when detonated, potentially crippling a vast swath of the commercial and government satellites that the world below depends on to talk on cell phones, pay bills, and surf the internet, according to three sources familiar with US intelligence about the weapon.

These sources gave CNN a more detailed understanding of what Russia is working on – and the threat it could pose – than the US government has previously disclosed.

Republican Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, set off a frenzy in Washington on Wednesday when he issued a statement saying his panel “had information concerning a serious national security threat.” By Friday, President Joe Biden had publicly confirmed that Turner was referring to a new Russian nuclear anti-satellite capability — but officials have steadfastly refused to discuss it further, citing the highly classified nature of the intelligence.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/16/politics/russia-nuclear-space-weapon-intelligence/index.html

What are the odds that our feckless leaders have now guaranteed the burning of what sounds like a possibly quality inside source, just so said leaders could make some political moves.  The source of a leak that shared this intel from inside Russia can't be too hard to pin down (assuming it's non-technical).  I see no way the American public could benefit from knowing about this threat other than to somehow impact the upcoming election.  These clowns are outright irresponsible.

[HossHarris]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime#:~:text=On July 9%2C 1962%2C at,N 169°38′W.
 

why all the hubbub…?

[gearhog]

35 minutes ago, HossHarris said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime#:~:text=On July 9%2C 1962%2C at,N 169°38′W.
 

why all the hubbub…?

It's only cool when we do it. 😄

In 1962, it looks like there were only about 25 satellites in orbit.

Today, there's about 7000-8000, mostly in LEO. It's a near exponential increase. Somewhere near half a million objects 1cm or bigger. Some believe we're approaching a number where loss of control and/or collision of a few satellites could create an uncontrollable cascading effect that would make orbiting the earth near impossible forever. That would suck.

[DirkDiggler]

46 minutes ago, HossHarris said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime#:~:text=On July 9%2C 1962%2C at,N 169°38′W.
 

why all the hubbub…?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Project_K_nuclear_tests
 

My thoughts exactly.  This just political theater, and dumb political theater at that.

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, gearhog said:

It's only cool when we do it. 😄

In 1962, it looks like there were only about 25 satellites in orbit.

Today, there's about 7000-8000, mostly in LEO. It's a near exponential increase. Somewhere near half a million objects 1cm or bigger. Some believe we're approaching a number where loss of control and/or collision of a few satellites could create an uncontrollable cascading effect that would make orbiting the earth near impossible forever. That would suck.

We'd just move everything to the next orbital level, each with exponentially-increasing room for more satellites. And no real effort has been put into cleaning up space trash. There will be innovation there for sure.

 

It'll be costly, but not prohibitively so. We can thank Elon for proving that. Still, not ideal.

Edited February 17 by Lord Ratner

[Dogs-N-Guns]

1 hour ago, gearhog said:

uncontrollable cascading effect that would make orbiting the earth near impossible

This is called the Kessler syndrome. Some already think we are there and just waiting for the trigger event to start the cascade. 

8 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

just move everything to the next orbital level,

I don't know if current satellites can change there orbits enough to make a difference, and if they could, the expended fuel would severely shorten their lifespan.

Once the cascade starts, I don't think there will be enough time to react. Getting a launch vehicle through the LEO trash cloud would be difficult (maybe impossible) after the cascade. Atmospheric drag would eventually clean things up, but that would take a very long time. There is a lot of research into how to de-orbit space trash without making things worse.

[Lord Ratner]

5 minutes ago, Dogs-N-Guns said:

This is called the Kessler syndrome. Some already think we are there and just waiting for the trigger event to start the cascade. 

I don't know if current satellites can change there orbits enough to make a difference, and if they could, the expended fuel would severely shorten their lifespan.

Once the cascade starts, I don't think there will be enough time to react. Getting a launch vehicle through the LEO trash cloud would be difficult (maybe impossible) after the cascade. Atmospheric drag would eventually clean things up, but that would take a very long time. There is a lot of research into how to de-orbit space trash without making things worse.

Sorry, by everything I meant the new, replacement stuff. I worded that very poorly. 😂🤣

 

Existing satellites are fucked. But the replacement cost will be much lower. I'm not saying it won't be an issue, but there's a whole lot of room left for orbital innovation, and usually a disaster is the perfect catalyst.

 

In fact, I'd wager an "orbital reset" would put the US into a near space monopoly, over the medium term. The rest of the world can barely get assets in orbit now, imagine if it required an entirely new regime of space tech?

[uhhello]

30 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

We'd just move everything to the next orbital level, each with exponentially-increasing room for more satellites. And no real effort has been put into cleaning up space trash. There will be innovation there for sure.

 

It'll be costly, but not prohibitively so. We can thank Elon for proving that. Still, not ideal.

How is anything getting through?  

[Lord Ratner]

1 minute ago, uhhello said:

How is anything getting through?  

That'll be the innovation part. 20 years ago we could track debris the size of a baseball, and that was just the unclassified level. Model the debris, predict the hole, and launch. We got bombers made of century-old tech to fly through oceans of flak, this won't be the challenge some are predicting it to be.

 

Not ideal, but it never is. I can't even think of a capabilities scare that came true. Peak oil, deforestation, the ozone hole, Moore's Law, overpopulation, etc. Our problems will always be socio-political, not technological.

[uhhello]

12 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

That'll be the innovation part. 20 years ago we could track debris the size of a baseball, and that was just the unclassified level. Model the debris, predict the hole, and launch. We got bombers made of century-old tech to fly through oceans of flak, this won't be the challenge some are predicting it to be.

 

Not ideal, but it never is. I can't even think of a capabilities scare that came true. Peak oil, deforestation, the ozone hole, Moore's Law, overpopulation, etc. Our problems will always be socio-political, not technological.

What I don't get is this supposed 'new threat'.  I'm not a smart man but hasn't it been possible for many many years to put a warhead on an ICBM and detonate near LEO?  Someone make this new threat make sense