World War III Updates

[08Dawg]

25 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

everything trump says about putin is true. he's smart, savvy, and capable. respecting your enemy is a wise thing to do.

Respecting, yes. Fawning over, idolizing even, is something far different. 

[di1630]

Trump can’t like a Soviet style leader like Putin because he’s a Nazi I thought.

Left is braindead


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[BashiChuni]

41 minutes ago, 08Dawg said:

Respecting, yes. Fawning over, idolizing even, is something far different. 

ah that's your bias and media spin talking again

[HeloDude]

2 hours ago, Day Man said:

this is straight laughable...trump is a simpleton being played by a far more capable adversary. he will not hesitate to abandon ukraine for a few compliments from another dictator

Well it’s a good thing none of those sites you posted are heavily biased against Trump.  And if I didn’t know any better, I would maybe assume you were biased against Trump as well.

[HubZemke]

Instead of listening to talking heads, just listen to what Trump actually says out loud. Seems to me that most of us won’t have a significant life change if he’s re-elected. However, that is not the case for millions of people…the same people we risk our lives for so they can have the freedom to choose how they live their life. 

[Lord Ratner]

37 minutes ago, HubZemke said:

Instead of listening to talking heads, just listen to what Trump actually says out loud. Seems to me that most of us won’t have a significant life change if he’s re-elected. However, that is not the case for millions of people…the same people we risk our lives for so they can have the freedom to choose how they live their life. 

What? Who are the people we risk our lives for that are not also us?

 

The people who listened to Trump in 2015 were surprised with how he actually ended up governing. Myself included. My assumption is that he will run the same playbook, but this time with fewer cabinet members who are actively subverting him. 

Edited October 30 by Lord Ratner

[gearhog]

On 10/26/2024 at 9:01 AM, Stoker said:

At the current rate of Russian advance, how many years/decades will it take for them to capture Kiev?

Sorry, I need to retract my earlier "14-15 years" response to this question. The rate of advance isn't linear according to today's issue of the New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/31/world/europe/russia-gains-ukraine-maps.html

 

[ClearedHot]

21 hours ago, gearhog said:

Sorry, I need to retract my earlier "14-15 years" response to this question. The rate of advance isn't linear according to today's issue of the New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/31/world/europe/russia-gains-ukraine-maps.html

 

And their losses have increased exponentially...57,000 in Oct 2024 alone.

[Lawman]

And their losses have increased exponentially...57,000 in Oct 2024 alone.

They are celebrating a “win” that has them 10k square miles short of taking the Donbas much less anything worth while.

Positional warfare at its finest.


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[ClearedHot]

Iran about to go high order on Israel again...

[Stoker]

On 11/1/2024 at 11:05 AM, Lawman said:

They are celebrating a “win” that has them 10k square miles short of taking the Donbas much less anything worth while.

Positional warfare at its finest.


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They started the war with the goal of taking Kiev in three days, and are now celebrating taking Random Tiny Village #47 like they just captured Berlin. And all it cost them was their future.

[Lawman]

They started the war with the goal of taking Kiev in three days, and are now celebrating taking Random Tiny Village #47 like they just captured Berlin. And all it cost them was their future.

It’s really too bad that with all the existing war stocks that we could give up to the Uke’s to fight, the one capacity that they could use (engineering) is one of those mission sets that just doesn’t have a depth in anybody’s inventory to hand over en mass.

They are finally figuring out effective maneuver doctrine and practice, but with only so much capability to conduct a penetration (sts) and breakout they can’t get the full mileage out of that ability.


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[uhhello]

Lots of chatter on twitter directly from UKR defense leaders on their inability to re-fill units through conscription.  Lots of very degraded manpower strength units that suffer from AWOL/conscriptions not showing up.  Time is ripe for a settlement.  UKR won't like it but it's inevitable unless we take all the handcuffs off.  I saw Biden removed the 'no US contractors in UKR' restriction yesterday.  

[busdriver]

2 hours ago, uhhello said:

Lots of chatter on twitter directly from UKR defense leaders on their inability to re-fill units through conscription. 

Are they still at 25 year old to get drafted?

[Day Man]

On 11/7/2024 at 2:50 PM, ClearedHot said:

Iran about to go high order on Israel again...

?

[uhhello]

50 minutes ago, busdriver said:

Are they still at 25 year old to get drafted?

Still at 25 from what I can see.  They lowered it from 27 to 25 back in the spring.  

[busdriver]

1 hour ago, uhhello said:

Still at 25 from what I can see.  They lowered it from 27 to 25 back in the spring.  

I saw that, I'm inclined to think we'll know they're really hurting when they drop the age again.

[ClearedHot]

The election is dominating the news cycle but the think tanks and watchers are shooting up red flares.  Highly recommend the Institute for the Study of War, they have a daily summary daily summary that is very detailed.  Also, get outside of the U.S. based news agencies, some of the sites based int he Middle East have excellent reporting.  A couple of key indicators:

- Iran observed moving more missiles into launch position.  (Open source reporting)

- Intel reports Iran plan to use some of their better capabilities (different missiles and bigger warheads), this time.  (Wall Street Journal

- 12 F-15Es did a hasty deployment to Jordan two days ago. US F-15 Strike Eagle fighter jets en route to Middle East ahead of possible Iranian retaliatory attack on Israel: report   (New York Post)

- RC-135 Rivet Joint arrived in Jordan 12 hours ago. (OSINT Defender)

- Iraq is now a center of gravity as Qatar tells Hamas to move HQ out of Qatar. (ISOW)

- Hezbollah ramping attacks as well, used a Fateh-110 ballistic missile for the first time. (Open source).

- Iran said planning to use more powerful weapons in next attack on Israel (Axios)

- Iran’s IRGC plans ‘complex’ retaliation to Israel: What we know (AL Monitor)

There are several X pages that do an incredible job (almost too good), of collecting and collating open source information and presented it with context.

[uhhello]

5 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

The election is dominating the news cycle but the think tanks and watchers are shooting up red flares.  Highly recommend the Institute for the Study of War, they have a daily summary daily summary that is very detailed.  Also, get outside of the U.S. based news agencies, some of the sites based int he Middle East have excellent reporting.  A couple of key indicators:

- Iran observed moving more missiles into launch position.  (Open source reporting)

- Intel reports Iran plan to use some of their better capabilities (different missiles and bigger warheads), this time.  (Wall Street Journal

- 12 F-15Es did a hasty deployment to Jordan two days ago. US F-15 Strike Eagle fighter jets en route to Middle East ahead of possible Iranian retaliatory attack on Israel: report   (New York Post)

- RC-135 Rivet Joint arrived in Jordan 12 hours ago. (OSINT Defender)

- Iraq is now a center of gravity as Qatar tells Hamas to move HQ out of Qatar. (ISOW)

- Hezbollah ramping attacks as well, used a Fateh-110 ballistic missile for the first time. (Open source).

- Iran said planning to use more powerful weapons in next attack on Israel (Axios)

- Iran’s IRGC plans ‘complex’ retaliation to Israel: What we know (AL Monitor)

There are several X pages that do an incredible job (almost too good), of collecting and collating open source information and presented it with context.

I don't even bother with "news" sources anymore.  They are always about 6-12 hours behind anything.  The more reliable OSINT twitter pages are pretty fucking good.  They will frequently self-correct quickly if they get out ahead of something.