World War III Updates

[nsplayr]

5 hours ago, gearhog said:

Which of his predictions have been proven false? I'm sure there have been some, just not sure what they are.

So, so many! 😄 The most obvious one is “full self driving” which at this point is a meme prediction. His timelines are always wildly ambitious and generally you can 2-5x the timeline for anything he promises. Which is usually fine, he’s a CEO who is selling stuff and some of that involves hype.

Look I don’t discredit Tesla or SpaceX accomplishments, hell I owned a Tesla and can’t wait to fly via Starlink. Launching the roadster on falcon heavy and nailing the simultaneous landing of the boosters was an incredible thing to witness. I also know that part of the quote wasn’t his main point. FWIW I have also predicted some things wrong, as have we all!

BUT I didn’t say what he said, I’m not scolding people to either “be right or STFU.” He truly is the pot calling the kettle black and I just thought that was funny. His opinions on politics, the Middle East, etc. have absolutely zero credibility above a random person’s IMHO.

[Skitzo]

I was wondering what Mearsheimer would say about all of this and then I found out. Great interview.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gearhog]

1 hour ago, nsplayr said:

So, so many! 😄 The most obvious one is “full self driving” which at this point is a meme prediction. His timelines are always wildly ambitious and generally you can 2-5x the timeline for anything he promises. Which is usually fine, he’s a CEO who is selling stuff and some of that involves hype.

Look I don’t discredit Tesla or SpaceX accomplishments, hell I owned a Tesla and can’t wait to fly via Starlink. Launching the roadster on falcon heavy and nailing the simultaneous landing of the boosters was an incredible thing to witness. I also know that part of the quote wasn’t his main point. FWIW I have also predicted some things wrong, as have we all!

BUT I didn’t say what he said, I’m not scolding people to either “be right or STFU.” He truly is the pot calling the kettle black and I just thought that was funny. His opinions on politics, the Middle East, etc. have absolutely zero credibility above a random person’s IMHO.

Irrelevant. Disregarded.

[gearhog]

Erdogan threatens Israel in a speech to massive crowd.

He also speaks to the West in general. “Hey West, I ask you, do you want to reignite the war between the crescent and the cross?”

Perhaps NATO can sub-in Ukraine for Turkey in a 1 for 1 swap.

https://x.com/5Pillarsuk/status/1718335986743046332?s=20

 

Edited October 28, 2023 by gearhog

[Swizzle]

1 hour ago, gearhog said:

Erdogan threatens Israel in a speech to massive crowd.

He also speaks to the West in general. “Hey West, I ask you, do you want to reignite the war between the crescent and the cross?”

Perhaps NATO can sub-in Ukraine for Turkey in a 1 for 1 swap.

https://x.com/5Pillarsuk/status/1718335986743046332?s=20

 

Goodbye spicy, cheesy bread. And the alley. 🫣🫤

[gearhog]

@nsplayr, here's some Elon Musk news that actually is relevant to the discussion.

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1718353404035039660?s=20

[BashiChuni]

7 hours ago, gearhog said:

Erdogan threatens Israel in a speech to massive crowd.

He also speaks to the West in general. “Hey West, I ask you, do you want to reignite the war between the crescent and the cross?”

Perhaps NATO can sub-in Ukraine for Turkey in a 1 for 1 swap.

https://x.com/5Pillarsuk/status/1718335986743046332?s=20

 

Unbelievable turkey is our NATO “ally”

[gearhog]

The Eisenhower CSG just entered the Med.

Two Super Carriers and their Strike Groups. Two VTOL carriers. 13 Guided missile cruisers and destroyers and dozens of frigates and logistics/cargo ships.

Watching Kaliningrad.

Souda Bay MOG'd out. One additional airfield approved for overflow. We're asking Greece for more.

Yemen formally declares war on Israel.

https://x.com/vicktop55/status/1719384314389868679?s=20

Blinken and Austin testified today to ask for another $100+ Billion for war.

https://www.reuters.com/world/wars-rage-biden-administration-make-case-106-billion-ukraine-israel-2023-10-31/

https://x.com/SecYellen/status/1719154013533294736?s=20

Edited October 31, 2023 by gearhog

[uhhello]

Fuck around and find out why we don't have free healthcare 🙂 Best meme seen in a while.  

[gearhog]

I dislike CNN as much as anyone here, but what does it say when the corporate mainstream media propagandists refuse to reinforce the narrative when they've loyally carried the water for this admin on every other issue?

Blinken and Austin were begging Congress for $100 Billion in support of Israel, on the same day CNN airs this.

Support for Israel is declining, even moreso with reports like this. Be it the economy, border security, public health emergencies, the Afghan withdrawl, the failed UKR counter-offensive, the trend is failure. I don't like to think that. But we've gotta face facts. This administration is positioning a massive fighting force, all that is needed is a defining moment or event that justifies using it while re-galvanizing public support. Then, they're gonna fuck it up. Again.

 

[Skitzo]

I dislike CNN as much as anyone here, but what does it say when the corporate mainstream media propagandists refuse to reinforce the narrative when they've loyally carried the water for this admin on every other issue?
Blinken and Austin were begging Congress for $100 Billion in support of Israel, on the same day CNN airs this.
Support for Israel is declining, even moreso with reports like this. Be it the economy, border security, public health emergencies, the Afghan withdrawl, the failed UKR counter-offensive, the trend is failure. I don't like to think that. But we've gotta face facts. This administration is positioning a massive fighting force, all that is needed is a defining moment or event that justifies using it while re-galvanizing public support. Then, they're gonna it up. Again.
 

Christ… anywho big daddy Mearsheimer has some pretty salient points:

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gearhog]

25 minutes ago, Skitzo said:

Christ… anywho big daddy Mearsheimer has some pretty salient points:

 

 

 

That was f'n awesome. Never heard of Mearsheimer before, but he's articulating everything I've been seeing. From failure of American leadership, Israel just making things worse, Ukraine losing, NATO expansion, that it is not in our interest to be in Gaza or Ukraine, and our inadvertent strengthening of China's position.

[StoleIt]

1 hour ago, gearhog said:

I dislike CNN as much as anyone here, but what does it say when the corporate mainstream media propagandists refuse to reinforce the narrative when they've loyally carried the water for this admin on every other issue?

Blinken and Austin were begging Congress for $100 Billion in support of Israel, on the same day CNN airs this.

Support for Israel is declining, even moreso with reports like this. Be it the economy, border security, public health emergencies, the Afghan withdrawl, the failed UKR counter-offensive, the trend is failure. I don't like to think that. But we've gotta face facts. This administration is positioning a massive fighting force, all that is needed is a defining moment or event that justifies using it while re-galvanizing public support. Then, they're gonna fuck it up. Again.

 

The issue is Hamas uses civilian shields as a form of "lawfare" just like China does gray zone operations.

The refugee camp also, according to the IDF, was sheltering "a senior Hamas commander" and caused the collapse of Hamas's underground infrastructure. So, probably a valid target according to LOAC, but arguably not a smart one in terms of optics.

An issue is the western populace doesn't (justifiably) understand that Hamas uses schools to launch rockets, hospitals for their military HQs, and encourages civilians to enter buildings after IDF roof thumps. I don't think Israel wants to kill civilians, but after the events of this month, at this point they definitely aren't going out of their way to avoid them anymore.

An old, from 2014, article on the topic that is still valid:

https://stratcomcoe.org/cuploads/pfiles/hamas_human_shields.pdf

[gearhog]

18 minutes ago, StoleIt said:

The issue is Hamas uses civilian shields as a form of "lawfare" just like China does gray zone operations.

The refugee camp also, according to the IDF, was sheltering "a senior Hamas commander" and caused the collapse of Hamas's underground infrastructure. So, probably a valid target according to LOAC, but arguably not a smart one in terms of optics.

An issue is the western populace doesn't (justifiably) understand that Hamas uses schools to launch rockets, hospitals for their military HQs, and encourages civilians to enter buildings after IDF roof thumps. I don't think Israel wants to kill civilians, but after the events of this month, at this point they definitely aren't going out of their way to avoid them anymore.

An old, from 2014, article on the topic that is still valid:

https://stratcomcoe.org/cuploads/pfiles/hamas_human_shields.pdf

Perception is reality. Israel had been given a huge moral advantage and as Mearsheimer above said, they should have learned lessons from our responses after 9/11. They overplayed their hand and the perception quickly shifted. The masses of hundreds of thousands of people on the streets don't care about LOAC, they care about the daily videos of Palestinian children bloodied, horrifically injured, or dead. Modern communication is a more effective weapon than a bomb, and we seem to be struggling with that.

I'm reminded of the old interview dilemma which asks "You're holding two people by the hand dangling over a cliff but can only pull one up. Which one?" I personally think Israel brings more overall value to the world, but not enough to risk the US. They're in a seemingly impossible situation. I'd turn em both loose.

[LookieRookie]

Israel isn’t a friend to the US. 
 

The Israeli government is interested in exploiting the US for their own ends. (To be fair, this is what any country should be do so I don’t blame them.)

 

We should feel no moral obligation to support them.

 

Do a cursory search and you can see the Israelis has their intelligence apparatus targeted towards America

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/12/israel-white-house-spying-devices-1491351#:~:text=The U.S. government concluded within,with knowledge of the matter.

 

https://amp.dw.com/en/israeli-pegasus-spyware-used-to-spy-on-us-officials-reports/a-60015869

 

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by LookieRookie

[LookieRookie]

22 hours ago, uhhello said:

Fuck around and find out why we don't have free healthcare 🙂 Best meme seen in a while.  

I understand it is a meme.

I would rather Americans have some form of universal basic healthcare.

[Biff_T]

No dead Americans for once.  Please let these dudes fight it out without American troops. 

We fight for money which we never get to see.  We have been fighting to keep the weapons industry wealthy.   Not for American values or defense of the homeland (9/11 and OEF for little while made sense but we prolonged it...needlessly).   OIF was a lie.   No WMDs ever found and that region is definitely not better off than before Mar 20, 2003.  

Fuck Hamas.  BUT.....Britain should be the one solving this. It's their baby.   Why do we have to be England's bitch? We owe them nothing.  Oh, I know why.  Weapons money. We want to use and sell them for that precious dollar.  War is good for business.  Peace is not.  

[LookieRookie]

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/
 

Cliffs: Ukraine is being ground down. Zelensky is losing confidence of his military and political teams because he refuses to negotiate. Even with all the weapons in be world, Ukraine has sustained so many losses they won’t be combat effective.

 

 But sure let’s keep giving them money to line Ukrainian oligarch pockets.

[Lord Ratner]

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

Perception is reality. Israel had been given a huge moral advantage and as Mearsheimer above said, they should have learned lessons from our responses after 9/11. They overplayed their hand and the perception quickly shifted. The masses of hundreds of thousands of people on the streets don't care about LOAC, they care about the daily videos of Palestinian children bloodied, horrifically injured, or dead. Modern communication is a more effective weapon than a bomb, and we seem to be struggling with that.

And people wonder why Israel gets so combative with the rest of the world...

 

Yeah, Israel had the "moral advantage" as long as they were willing to sit by and allow their people to be massacred with no real response. That's a super neat place to be isn't it?

And exactly what should they do? Lick their wounds, and wait for the next attack? Does anyone believe there won't be another attack? They were given a bad hand, a death cult islamo-fascist terrorist government next door, and the rest of the world so fat, dumb, and happy that they could sit thousands of miles away and criticize another country for doing exactly what they would do themselves if their wife was raped while their kid was burnt alive.

 

Any country has to deal with the response from their allies, adversaries, and neighbors. But the narrative surrounding this seems to be encroaching on some sort of immorality as to what Israel is doing, and that is such a steaming heap of relativist bullshit that it's honestly stunning me that people who I thought were intelligent now seem to be making this argument, and I don't just mean on this forum.

 

What we fucked up in the global war on terror had nothing to do with the people that we killed in response to 9/11. Like Israel, we went through great pains to ensure that the collateral damage was minimized to some sort of logical extent. But when your adversaries, who demonstrate in the most blatant way possible that they do not value civilian life, use your morals as a shield when they build their military facilities literally in schools and hospitals, there is no moral question about destroying those schools, and the unfortunate children inside. The only way you can get to that is by disregarding the concept of morality entirely, which is basically postmodernism, which is absolute and utter bullshit. Morally bankrupt yes, but not even logically sound.

 

The reason CNN isn't supporting Israel is because the media never supported Israel. Ever. There were always political realities that made the political left more hospitable to Israel than the activist and academic left, but the fact that the liberal media is supporting Ukraine and not supporting Israel should have been obvious to anybody who actually understands what drives the left in this era. This particular attack was simply so horrific that only the most fervent anti-semites and progressive shills could bring themselves to spew their anti-Israel nonsense after the attack. Now that the shock is wearing off, the left will return to their usual positions.

 

Everybody likes to blame the British and the Israelis for this mess, because in the 1940s the state of Israel was established in a very sloppy way. What they conveniently leave out is the immediate war launched on the Israelis by the Arabs in the late 40s, and the failure of the many Arab states surrounding Israel to do anything to help the Palestinians, leading up to what we have now. That all sucks, and there are people responsible for that situation, but they're all dead. What matters now is what the living israelis have to deal with, and how the living Arabs surrounding them choose to participate.

 

I would love to see what would happen if a bunch of Mexicans crashed through the border and massacred 1500 Americans, including some of the most gruesome deaths of women and children we've seen in a generation.

 

This new populist conservative isolationism is not inherently illogical in and of itself, but it is going to great lengths to reframe or outright ignore obvious moral conundrums in an effort to bolster their isolationist position. All the while failing to recognize that our increasingly isolationist position in the world has not led to the flourishing of peace and tranquility. There is no escaping the conflict ahead. It has been brewing for 30 plus years, and the only question at this point is who will come out on top. That doesn't mean we should send troops into Ukraine or Israel, but supporting the good guys, yes, even when the good guys have skeletons in their closet too, is a societal trait that we can very much lose.

 

If someone can't see the moral difference between Israel and Palestine, or if they downplay that difference because it does not support their geopolitical philosophy, they should not be in any position of national power. Remember that the politician/person who can't make a correct moral determination on one issue is almost certain to make the incorrect moral determination on an issue that matters deeply to you down the road.

 

There is a simple hypothetical that, when answered, will tell you everything you need to know about someone opining on this topic. If Israel were to lay down their weapons, dismantle all defenses, and open their border, how many Israelis would be slaughtered by Palestinians in the days that followed? Conversely, if the Palestinians did the same, how many would be killed by Israelis?

[Biff_T]

1 hour ago, Lord Ratner said:

Muchas palabras 

I agree.  I know who I consider the "good guys".  Let them beat Hamas without American troops.  Israel can and will kick the shit out of Hamas.  

We're going to get some too.   We alsways do.  History and stuff...

I'm glad I taught my kids how to shoot.  Hopefully that will save them if they need it one day.  

Maybe Israel should just drop some leaflets with a picture of Muhammad them?  That would screw with them for little while.  How do you reason with people who will kill you over a fucking picture?  Why do we even care.  What if I start selling  shirts with Muhammad's picture on it and he happens to look just like Macho Man saying "Snap into a Slimjim!"?   Someone would kill my family.  Think about that.  We can make "art" with Jesus and Moses fucking each other and not only is it ok, but a lot of people would laugh at it.  One picture of Muhammad and the world is doomed.   We also need to quit catering to the Muslim religion so much.   They aren't fucking special.  

Hail Santa 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Biff_T
Spelling bee failure

[Pooter]

@Lord Ratner

The moral high ground dissolves pretty quickly when you realize Netanyahu intentionally propped up Hamas across 4 administrations for the better part of 20 years, specifically to hinder Palestinian statehood & legitimacy. 
 

It's literally the same as when left denounces trump and his maga acolytes while secretly backing them in state and local elections to destabilize the Republican Party at large. 
 

Either they're an existential threat or they aren't. You don't get to call them an existential threat, secretly support them, and then get mad when it blows up in your face. 
 

None of this is to justify Hamas atrocities, or to deny that the Middle East is full of fundamentalist anti semite shitbags. But there's no doubt Israel played a part in bringing this to a boiling point. 

[gearhog]

37 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

And people wonder why Israel gets so combative with the rest of the world...

Yeah, Israel had the "moral advantage" as long as they were willing to sit by and allow their people to be massacred with no real response. That's a super neat place to be isn't it?

And exactly what should they do? Lick their wounds, and wait for the next attack? Does anyone believe there won't be another attack? They were given a bad hand, a death cult islamo-fascist terrorist government next door, and the rest of the world so fat, dumb, and happy that they could sit thousands of miles away and criticize another country for doing exactly what they would do themselves if their wife was raped while their kid was burnt alive.

I think you've misinterpreted my position on Israel. Israel should do whatever Israel wants. This conflict pre-dates you, me, and everyone involved or commenting on it. I think it would be conceited for me to posture as if I know the answer or was qualified to make a moral determination in a conflict I am not a part of, in a part of the world I do not reside, amongst people I have no connection to. We're even less qualified to inflict violence based on our half-assed assessments.

This conflict is no more and no less important to me than any other great tragedy or injustice befalling other people around the world. Why would anyone attempt to make me feel as if I have some of obligation to support a side in this particular instance?

Is it better to say you support something and actually doing nothing, or saying you support doing nothing? I estimate 99% of people who pretend to have strong feelings on the matter get a bit of a charge out of public righteous moral indignation and virtue signalling. But would they vote to send a family member to march behind a tank through Gaza in support of Israel? I think we've done a reasonable enough job setting up Israel for success. But it's like a 25 year old that won't leave home. Sink or swim.

Based on my upbringing, culture, and belief system, Hamas are fucking animals. What would you do yourself if someone did those things you mentioned to your family? You'd kill them and I'd help you. I might even help you burn the house. But when you start slaughtering the neighbors and leveling the whole community because they tolerated the killer's existence, I gotta disengage somewhere. When does justice become revenge?

2 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

What we fucked up in the global war on terror had nothing to do with the people that we killed in response to 9/11. Like Israel, we went through great pains to ensure that the collateral damage was minimized to some sort of logical extent. But when your adversaries, who demonstrate in the most blatant way possible that they do not value civilian life, use your morals as a shield when they build their military facilities literally in schools and hospitals, there is no moral question about destroying those schools, and the unfortunate children inside. The only way you can get to that is by disregarding the concept of morality entirely, which is basically postmodernism, which is absolute and utter bullshit. Morally bankrupt yes, but not even logically sound.

I don't understand this part. What do you mean there is no moral question about destroying a school with a bad guy in it? Are you saying we should or should not be disregarding morality?

2 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

I would love to see what would happen if a bunch of Mexicans crashed through the border and massacred 1500 Americans, including some of the most gruesome deaths of women and children we've seen in a generation.

I wouldn't.

2 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

This new populist conservative isolationism is not inherently illogical in and of itself, but it is going to great lengths to reframe or outright ignore obvious moral conundrums in an effort to bolster their isolationist position. All the while failing to recognize that our increasingly isolationist position in the world has not led to the flourishing of peace and tranquility. There is no escaping the conflict ahead. It has been brewing for 30 plus years, and the only question at this point is who will come out on top. That doesn't mean we should send troops into Ukraine or Israel, but supporting the good guys, yes, even when the good guys have skeletons in their closet too, is a societal trait that we can very much lose.

"Our increasingly isolationist position had not led to the flourishing of peace and tranquility?" We have 750 bases in 80 countries and 170,000 military members deployed around the world. How is that isolationist? Wouldn't it be more reasonable to say that foreign involvements and interventions have created hostility? You seem to be saying you support conflict, but not so much as to actually involve our troops. If you can draw an arbitrary line as to how committed you are to a cause, why can't I?

2 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

There is a simple hypothetical that, when answered, will tell you everything you need to know about someone opining on this topic. If Israel were to lay down their weapons, dismantle all defenses, and open their border, how many Israelis would be slaughtered by Palestinians in the days that followed? Conversely, if the Palestinians did the same, how many would be killed by Israelis?

Why would you create a impossible hypothetical about how many people would be killed when there's an actual war being fought and they're both doing just that in reality? The numbers are the numbers.

Hey, brother. I just want to make it clear that I know I'm being challenging, but I respect your opinion. I spend more time debating points with myself in my own mind than I do online.

 

 

[StoleIt]

5 hours ago, LookieRookie said:

Israel isn’t a friend to the US. 
 

The Israeli government is interested in exploiting the US for their own ends. (To be fair, this is what any country should be do so I don’t blame them.)

 

We should feel no moral obligation to support them.

 

Do a cursory search and you can see the Israelis has their intelligence apparatus targeted towards America

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/12/israel-white-house-spying-devices-1491351#:~:text=The U.S. government concluded within,with knowledge of the matter.

 

https://amp.dw.com/en/israeli-pegasus-spyware-used-to-spy-on-us-officials-reports/a-60015869

 

 

Every country spies on each other. You think we don't spy on our allies? Token Example here. Second token example here.

But yes, I do think Israel is our ally. It's also the only legitimate democracy in that part of the world...which is generally the type of government we also like to support.

Do we have a perfect past with Israel? Of course not...the USS Liberty incident being a great example. But I'd much rather support Israel than any other country in that region just based on values and morality alone. How often do you see Israeli citizens shouting "Death to America" or burning American flags?

[LookieRookie]

8 minutes ago, StoleIt said:

Every country spies on each other. You think we don't spy on our allies? Token Example here. Second token example here.

But yes, I do think Israel is our ally. It's also the only legitimate democracy in that part of the world...which is generally the type of government we also like to support.

Do we have a perfect past with Israel? Of course not...the USS Liberty incident being a great example. But I'd much rather support Israel than any other country in that region just based on values and morality alone. How often do you see Israeli citizens shouting "Death to America" or burning American flags?

Israel can do what it wants.
 

 We shouldn’t be funding it. 

[StoleIt]

1 minute ago, LookieRookie said:

Israel can do what it wants.
 

 We shouldn’t be funding it. 

Agreed. But, on the list of stupid shit we spend money on...there are a lot worse investments.

Exhibit #1: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/us-taxpayers-may-funding-taliban-afghan-terror-groups-watchdog-says-rcna80446