World War III Updates

[uhhello]

17 minutes ago, Smokin said:

Maybe they'll declare war on Ukraine?  I don't understand the thought process that Ukraine somehow should have their hands tied about what targets they can strike.  I get that the rest of the world doesn't want to the war to bring other countries in, but Russia invaded and all of Russia's targets have been in Ukraine.  Why should Ukraine be held back from striking Russia?

With how much Russia is struggling against Ukraine, I don't imagine Putin wants the war to widen either. 

The interesting thing to think about if these are drone strikes; does Ukraine now have drones capable of reaching that long range of a target or are there Ukrainian SOF units inside Russia?

According to Russian sources the drone which hit Dyagilevo airbase was a Tupolev Tu-141 Strizh, a Soviet-made recon drone from the 1970s and 1980s.

Hilarious if true.  Maybe Russia doesn't want to admit UKR has something new....

Edited December 6, 2022 by uhhello

[DirkDiggler]

Nice pics of a slightly used Tu-22, too bad it's missiles didn't cook off and level the whole area.

[gearhog]

13 hours ago, Smokin said:

Maybe they'll declare war on Ukraine?  I don't understand the thought process that Ukraine somehow should have their hands tied about what targets they can strike.  I get that the rest of the world doesn't want to the war to bring other countries in, but Russia invaded and all of Russia's targets have been in Ukraine.  Why should Ukraine be held back from striking Russia?

With how much Russia is struggling against Ukraine, I don't imagine Putin wants the war to widen either. 

The interesting thing to think about if these are drone strikes; does Ukraine now have drones capable of reaching that long range of a target or are there Ukrainian SOF units inside Russia?

I don't understand that thought process either, but I also haven't heard anyone make that claim. If Russia is in Ukraine, Ukraine should have every justification to hit every military target inside Russia. But why haven't they? If anyone wants Ukraine to have it's hands tied, it would be NATO as it would also tie the hands of Russia. NATO benefits from a protracted limited conflict in Ukraine that bleeds Russia until they pack it up and go home. Ukraine itself likely doesn't have the patience as their homeland is being destroyed, so they lob a 1970s Soviet drone at a strategic nuclear base. They stand to benefit from a wider war. Events like this puts us at the threshold of moving beyond conventional conflict.

Russia likely believes they can still achieve whatever goals they have with a limited conflict within Ukraine. I personally would like to see Russia fail miserably, but what does that look like? De-escalation and withdrawal.? There are no trends in that direction. History has shown that Russia's definition of "struggle" with regards to combat losses is somewhat different than ours, so we should hesitate to use it as a gauge of success/failure.

It seems that unless all sides of the conflict are willing to make significant concessions, and that doesn't seem to be the case, the only other option is escalation by striking more targets within Russia.

[gearhog]

Turns out their hands were tied.

 

[uhhello]

10 minutes ago, torqued said:

Turns out their hands were tied.

 

Did they put GPS lockout zones on them or something?  

[SurelySerious]

Won’t fire ATACMS.

[Lawman]

Did they put GPS lockout zones on them or something?  

We’ve always maintained that capability through crypto.

We did the same with partner nations during the GWOT exercised use of GPS guided munitions. Yeah we gave them to the nation for their inventory, but we held back the SKL with the codes that make it useful for a level of control.

Doing so puts our say so directly into their targeting cycle.
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[gearhog]

Poland news the past few days also seems to point to escalation and a widening conflict. Ukraine will be attempting to fight back the Russians during the winter in a possible complete blackout. If they struggle with that, we should see all the below pour into Western Ukraine from Poland.

5 Dec: First 600-700 of 2,400 US tanks and vehicles arrive in Poland ahead of The Big Red One for Atlantic Resolve. https://www.polandatsea.com/american-military-equipment-arrived-in-gdynia/

6 Dec: Korea delivers tanks and howitzers. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/10/25/poland-receives-korean-tanks-howitzers/

6 Dec: Poland to draft up to 200,000. https://tvpworld.com/64936493/poland-plans-to-draft-200000-for-military-training-next-year

6 Dec: State Department agrees to sell another 116 M1A1s and other equip to Poland: https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/poland-m1a1-abrams-main-battle-tanks

Poland to buy hundreds of HIMARS and Korean rocket systems. (Ukraine has 20). https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/10/14/poland-to-buy-hundreds-of-s-korean-chunmoo-multiple-rocket-launchers/

Edited December 8, 2022 by torqued

[FourFans]

On 12/8/2022 at 7:50 AM, torqued said:

Poland news the past few days also seems to point to escalation and a widening conflict. Ukraine will be attempting to fight back the Russians during the winter in a possible complete blackout. If they struggle with that, we should see all the below pour into Western Ukraine from Poland.

5 Dec: First 600-700 of 2,400 US tanks and vehicles arrive in Poland ahead of The Big Red One for Atlantic Resolve. https://www.polandatsea.com/american-military-equipment-arrived-in-gdynia/

6 Dec: Korea delivers tanks and howitzers. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/10/25/poland-receives-korean-tanks-howitzers/

6 Dec: Poland to draft up to 200,000. https://tvpworld.com/64936493/poland-plans-to-draft-200000-for-military-training-next-year

6 Dec: State Department agrees to sell another 116 M1A1s and other equip to Poland: https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/poland-m1a1-abrams-main-battle-tanks

Poland to buy hundreds of HIMARS and Korean rocket systems. (Ukraine has 20). https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/10/14/poland-to-buy-hundreds-of-s-korean-chunmoo-multiple-rocket-launchers/

Someone's looking for a body of water labelled "Gulf of Tonkin" somewhere between Poland and Russia...

[gearhog]

Looks like Iran is getting hit. Multiple reports of explosions in multiple locations. Unconfirmed rumors of drone strikes and Iranian jets in the air.

https://twitter.com/search?q=Iran explosion&src=typeahead_click&f=live

https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1619476912664895490?s=20&t=rmhNlrszJtjHMGDxHUA9vA

[uhhello]

14 minutes ago, torqued said:

Looks like Iran is getting hit. Multiple reports of explosions in multiple locations. Unconfirmed rumors of drone strikes and Iranian jets in the air.

https://twitter.com/search?q=Iran explosion&src=typeahead_click&f=live

https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1619476912664895490?s=20&t=rmhNlrszJtjHMGDxHUA9vA

KC-135 strikes.  Brings up a question.  Does the mother ship get credit for the strikes or is it the actual drone?  

Edited January 28, 2023 by uhhello

[gearhog]

14 minutes ago, uhhello said:

KC-135 strikes.  Brings up a question.  Does the mother ship get credit for the strikes or is it the actual drone?  

Depends. Are the tanker guys WIC grads?

[uhhello]

28 minutes ago, torqued said:

Depends. Are the tanker guys WIC grads?

The boom is

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, torqued said:

Looks like Iran is getting hit. Multiple reports of explosions in multiple locations. Unconfirmed rumors of drone strikes and Iranian jets in the air.

https://twitter.com/search?q=Iran explosion&src=typeahead_click&f=live

https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1619476912664895490?s=20&t=rmhNlrszJtjHMGDxHUA9vA

7 cities apparently.  

[gearhog]

1 hour ago, uhhello said:

7 cities apparently.  

And earthquakes in NW Iran at the same time. WTF? Perhaps a coincidence, but sure is bizarre.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=us6000jk1j&extent=24.8665,26.47705&extent=45.213,72.24609

Edited January 29, 2023 by torqued

[Swizzle]

15 hours ago, torqued said:

And earthquakes in NW Iran at the same time. WTF? Perhaps a coincidence, but sure is bizarre.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=us6000jk1j&extent=24.8665,26.47705&extent=45.213,72.24609

https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/articles-reports/irans-nuclear-timetable-weapon-potential

I wonder what a mapped out Iran nuclear sites versus earthquake epicenter would show? Someone has to be putting them on the same map...

...or it's ordinary quakes along their fault lines crisscrossing Iran

[Lawman]

And earthquakes in NW Iran at the same time. WTF? Perhaps a coincidence, but sure is bizarre.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=us6000jk1j&extent=24.8665,26.47705&extent=45.213,72.24609

Some SAP/STO planner:

“Dammit…. People are gonna find out about the Earthquake gun!”


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[DirkDiggler]

Lots of speculation over on Twitter about who was responsible and where things originated.  Be interesting to see the real story/data.

Israel Strikes Iran Amid International Push to Contain Tehran - WSJ

  Either way, things blowing up in Iran, no clearly responsible party, and videos on Twitter of Iranian citizens cheering some of the strikes.  Not a bad way to start a Sunday morning.

[gearhog]

CIA Director Bill Burns arrived in Israel on Friday. https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-escalation-cia-chief-said-visiting-israel-west-bank/

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will arrive in Israel tomorrow - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blinken-begins-middle-east-trip-amid-spate-violence-2023-01-29/

Vid of the Khoy earthquake during the strikes on Iran yesterday. Looks like the earthquake caused some electrical transformers to explode. https://twitter.com/GraduatedBen/status/1619522084346138624?s=20&t=yCwJEv6gCVydRFnFUpMPOA

 

EDIT: Aircraft are striking multiple targets in Syria now at the same location we had aircraft over yesterday (Al-Bukamal, Syria and Al Qaim, Iraq).

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by torqued

[gearhog]

Lots of action today. This apparently is more than a slap on the wrist.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Headquarters just got smashed in Mahabad, Iran. This was the site of one of the heaviest crackdowns during the recent protests.

https://twitter.com/gchahal/status/1619793176734359552?s=20&t=Ug9bHYNdfQxcLM8oe8tXlw

[gearhog]

Hamas launched a war this morning in Israel. Gunmen inside Israeli cities indiscriminately shooting civilians. 5000 rockets. Drone strikes. Mass kidnappings and hostages.

To what extent will this inspire sympathetic immigrant populations in Western countries?

buckle up

Edited October 7, 2023 by gearhog

[ClearedHot]

Hamas has an incredible ability to sacrifice its own people with efforts that hurt their cause.  Yes this will harden their base, yes this will garner funding from sympathetic lunatics in the region but no this will not help them regain the land of Palestine.  Standby for mass airstrikes in inside the Gaza strip that will likely kill hundreds of innocents now that the gloves are off.  I would not be surprised by a ground action, a perfect wag the dog moment for Netanyahu and the hardliners trying to pass legislation that will weaken and minimize the influence of their Supreme Court.

[Boomer6]

It’ll be interesting to see if Israel starts hitting Iranian targets in the region.

[tac airlifter]

5 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Hamas has an incredible ability to sacrifice its own people with efforts that hurt their cause.  Yes this will harden their base, yes this will garner funding from sympathetic lunatics in the region but no this will not help them regain the land of Palestine.  Standby for mass airstrikes in inside the Gaza strip that will likely kill hundreds of innocents now that the gloves are off.  I would not be surprised by a ground action, a perfect wag the dog moment for Netanyahu and the hardliners trying to pass legislation that will weaken and minimize the influence of their Supreme Court.

I sort of agree, but would add couple things. First the phrase "wag the dog" implies the incident being responded to is false.  Great movie by the way.  In this case the incident is obviously true and Israel is surrounded on all sides by fanatics who want them dead.  And I'm not a fan of what Netanyahu is doing regarding internal politics; but we are hardly in a position to judge after own politics jumped the shark these past few years.
 

The Israel/Palestine conflict has always been messy with dirty hands on both sides.  But supporting Israel is the only ethical option.  
 

interesting that this is a Hamas action not Hezbollah; I'm curious what kind of cross-pollination might exists between those two since I'd guess Iran pushing this more than Arab states.  Anyone know if Hamas has previously aligned with Shia Iran for anti-Israel actions?  Seems strange, but I am not a regional expert.

[DirkDiggler]

20 minutes ago, tac airlifter said:

I sort of agree, but would add couple things. First the phrase "wag the dog" implies the incident being responded to is false.  Great movie by the way.  In this case the incident is obviously true and Israel is surrounded on all sides by fanatics who want them dead.  And I'm not a fan of what Netanyahu is doing regarding internal politics; but we are hardly in a position to judge after own politics jumped the shark these past few years.
 

The Israel/Palestine conflict has always been messy with dirty hands on both sides.  But supporting Israel is the only ethical option.  
 

interesting that this is a Hamas action not Hezbollah; I'm curious what kind of cross-pollination might exists between those two since I'd guess Iran pushing this more than Arab states.  Anyone know if Hamas has previously aligned with Shia Iran for anti-Israel actions?  Seems strange, but I am not a regional expert.

There’s a decent amount of chatter on the Twittersphere (so take with a grain of salt) that Hezbollah informed Israel via unofficial channels (through Egypt) that they will join the invasion if Israel initiates a ground incursion of Gaza.  Pretty sure Israel is going to do that, especially given the number of civilians Hamas has taken hostage.  Will be interesting to see if Hezbollah follows through.